The old adage about the interregnum between an election and an inauguration is that there is only one president at a time. Try telling that to the rest of the world now.

关于大选和就职仪式之间这段时间有句老话，就是同一时间里只有一位总统。现在再跟全世界说这句话试试看。

While one president, the one actually still living in the White House, attends international summit meetings and brokers a Middle East cease-fire to cap his tenure, another president, the one who has not actually taken office yet, is busy conducting a foreign policy of his own from his Spanish-tiled Florida estate.

一个总统，目前住在白宫里的总统，在参加国际首脑会晤，力求在任期的最后时刻促成中东停火，另一个总统，还没实际就职的总统，忙着在自己那座铺着西班牙瓷砖的佛罗里达大宅里制定外交政策。

Without waiting to be sworn in, President-elect Donald J. Trump effectively declared a trade war this week by announcing that he would impose tariffs on America’s friends, Canada and Mexico, as well as its rival China on Day 1 of his administration. The next day, President Biden strode into the Rose Garden to announce an agreement to end more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

尚未宣誓就职的候任总统唐纳德·J·特朗普在本周宣布会在上任第一天向美国的对手中国征收关税，同时美国的朋友——加拿大和墨西哥——也在征收范围内，这实际上是在宣布开始一场贸易战。次日，拜登总统走进玫瑰园宣布了一项协议，旨在结束以色列和真主党之间的一场持续了一年多的战争。

This is America in the time of transition, making peace and declaring war, all in the same 24-hour news cycle — two presidents leading the country in two different directions, one officially, the other unofficially; one representing the past and present, the other the future. Whipsawed and maybe just a little confused, foreign leaders are left to calculate whether it makes sense to try to get something done with the outgoing leader or brace for the reality of his successor.

这就是处于权力交接阶段的美国，一边在促成和平，一边在宣战，这是在24小时的新闻周期内发生的事——两位总统，一位正式总统，一位非正式总统，正在将国家带向截然相反的方向；一位代表着过去和现在，一位代表未来。在忽左忽右的晃动下可能有些困惑的外国领导人只能自己去判断，是跟即将卸任的领导人达成些什么目标，还是准备好面对他的继任者将带来的现实。

“Transitions always result in a momentum shift to the new team, but this time around feels more pronounced than any transition in recent memory,” said Suzanne Maloney, the director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington and a former State Department adviser.

“过渡期最终都是要将势头转向新团队的，但这一次感觉比近代任何一次过渡都要更突出，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会外国政策项目主任、前国务院顾问苏珊·马龙尼说。

“Leaders in capitals around the world are trying to take advantage of the moment to try to curry favor with Trump himself at a time when it may still be possible to shape his agenda,” she added. And Mr. Trump’s “inner circle is dismissive of the traditional Washington protocols that might suggest some discretion during the transition.”

“世界各地的领导人都在抓住这个机会，试图与特朗普本人搞好关系，在这个阶段，他的议程还是可塑的，”她说。特朗普的“核心圈子对传统华盛顿规范的不屑，可能意味着在过渡期间会有一些运作空间”。

The tariff threats may just be an opening bargaining position as Mr. Trump seeks leverage to force trading partners to halt the flow of migrants and drugs, but they underscored how much has changed since the election. Before Mr. Trump’s arrival on the political stage, presidents of both parties had spent decades bringing down trade barriers, but the president-elect has made clear he intends to build them back up again.

关税威胁也许只是特朗普在开启一场讨价还价，他希望掌握一些杠杆，以迫使贸易伙伴遏制移民和毒品的流动，但从中也可以清楚地看到大选后发生了怎样的变化。特朗普走上政治舞台之前，两党的总统几十年来一直在拆除贸易壁垒，但这位候任总统明确表示，他打算把壁垒重新建起来。

In targeting Canada, Mexico and China, Mr. Trump picked America’s three largest trading partners, signaling a new period of friction at odds with Mr. Biden’s efforts over the past four years to get along. The announcements quickly scrambled economic calculations across the hemisphere and across the ocean, forcing foreign capitals to consider whether to negotiate or retaliate.

特朗普选择加拿大、墨西哥和中国这三个目标，也就是美国的三个最大的贸易伙伴，标志着一段冲突期的开始，这与过去四年里拜登努力共处的做法背道而驰。这个消息促使西半球乃至大洋彼岸纷纷做出经济上的考量，以确定应该磋商还是反制。

The consequences could be enormous. Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods and will largely be passed along to consumers. So if Mr. Trump follows through — and it is possible this is mainly a bluff to force trading partners to compromise — Americans still reeling from the inflation of Mr. Biden’s tenure could face a renewed round of inflation during Mr. Trump’s tenure.

这将造成巨大的影响。关税实际上就是对进口商品征税，其中大部分将转嫁给消费者。如果特朗普真的实施了这一政策——为迫使贸易伙伴就范而虚张声势的可能性是存在的——仍然深陷于拜登时期的通胀泥潭的美国人，在特朗普时期可能要面对新一轮的通胀。

特朗普的国家安全顾问人选、众议员迈克尔·瓦尔兹坚称，这位新当选总统的工作与现任总统并无冲突。

Daniel M. Price, who was an international economics adviser to President George W. Bush, said Mr. Trump appeared to be using the tariff threats to extract concessions. “This isn’t a surprise, as it’s what he said on the campaign trail,” Mr. Price said. “He’s looking for offers of appeasement from his targets to mitigate any tariffs.”

曾任乔治·W·布什总统的国际经济顾问的丹尼尔·M·普莱斯说，特朗普似乎在利用关税威胁迫使对手退缩。“这不意外，他在竞选的时候就这么说过，”普莱斯说。“他希望看到他的目标做出让步，从而解除关税的压力。”

Miriam Sapiro, an acting U.S. trade representative under President Barack Obama, said Mr. Trump had an incentive not to wait until his inauguration. Mr. Trump’s narrow 1.6-percentage point election victory with little coattails suggests that Republicans are in danger of losing one or both houses in the midterm elections if history is a guide.

曾在奥巴马政府中任职代理美国贸易代表的米利安·萨皮罗说，特朗普不想等到就职再行动是有原因的。他的胜选优势只有1.6%，无法带动共和党整体选情，按以往的规律，这意味着共和党人可能会在中期选举中失去两院中的一个，甚至两个全丢。

“It’s unusual, but not surprising, that Trump wants to move quickly because he can’t run again, and he’ll have only two years of real power if Republicans lose control of Congress in 2026,” said Ms. Sapiro, who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “But telegraphing early what he intends to do when he takes office gives other countries, as well as U.S. and foreign companies, more time to organize their moves.”

“这是不常见的，但不算意外，特朗普希望尽快行动起来，因为他不能再参选了，如果2026年共和党失去对国会的控制，他真正掌握权力的时间也就那么两年，”现供职于华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的萨皮罗说。“但早早明确他在就任后会做些什么，可以让其它国家以及国内外的企业有更多时间来组织自己的行动。”

Mr. Trump is not confining his pre-inauguration international dealings to economics. He authorized his billionaire financial patron Elon Musk to open discussions with Iran, bypassing the current administration, which is laboring to manage a precarious standoff between the Islamic republic and Israel. Mr. Trump has vowed to end Russia’s war in Ukraine before the inauguration, a task that he says without embarrassment or explanation should take him a mere 24 hours when he gets around to it. By one account, he has even had a phone conversation with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, although the Kremlin denied it.

特朗普在就职前的国际交易并不仅限于经济领域。他授权自己的捐款人、亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克与伊朗谈判，绕过了正在这个伊斯兰共和国和以色列之间奋力斡旋以求稳定局势的现任政府。特朗普誓称要在就职前结束俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争，大言不惭地说只要他出手，这件事可以在24小时内解决，但没具体解释会怎么做。甚至有消息说他与俄罗斯总统普京通了电话，但克里姆林宫予以否认。

Representative Michael Waltz, the Republican from Florida tapped to serve as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, insisted that the new president was not trying to work in conflict with the current one, noting that he has met with Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser.

被特朗普任命为国家安全顾问的佛罗里达州共和党众议员迈克尔·瓦尔兹坚称，这位新当选总统的工作与现任总统并无冲突，并表示自己与拜登的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文见过面。

“Jake Sullivan and I have had discussions. We’ve met,” Mr. Waltz said on “Fox News Sunday” over the weekend. “For our adversaries out there that think this is a time of opportunity that they can play one administration off the other, they’re wrong and we are hand in glove. We are one team with the United States in this transition.”

“杰克·沙利文和我谈过话。我们见过，”瓦尔兹周末在《周日福克斯新闻》上说。“如果我们的敌人们以为，现在是一个挑拨两届政府的机会，他们搞错了，我们亲密无间。在这次交接中，我们都是美国队的队友。”

But that moment of bipartisan solidarity did not last long. As soon as Mr. Biden announced the cease-fire that he brokered after months of painstaking negotiations, Mr. Waltz tried to claim credit for Mr. Trump, who had no role in the talks.

但这种两党团结并没有持续多久。在拜登宣布经过数月艰辛谈判达成的停火协议后，瓦尔兹企图把功劳算在根本没有参与谈判的特朗普头上。

“Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” Mr. Waltz wrote on social media. “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.”

“所有人都是因为特朗普总统才坐到一起的，”瓦尔兹在社交媒体上说。‘他在选举中的大胜向全世界发出了清晰的讯号，混乱是不能容忍的。我很高兴能看到中东在采取缓解局势的切实措施。’

In fact, the Biden and Trump teams have had only glancing consultations since the election because the president-elect refused for weeks to sign memorandums of understanding on how to handle the transition with the federal government. In part because of that, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken had spoken with Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, but had not been able to sit down in person.

事实上，自大选以来，拜登和特朗普团队只进行过短暂的磋商，因为候任总统几周来一直拒绝签署关于如何与联邦政府处理过渡的谅解备忘录。国务卿布林肯与佛罗里达州共和党参议员马尔科·卢比奥有过通话但未能面谈，一定程度上就是因为这一点。

Amos Hochstein, Mr. Biden’s envoy negotiating Middle East peace, briefed Mr. Trump’s aides on his talks to end the fighting in Lebanon shortly after the Nov. 5 election and then again this week when an agreement was imminent. He came away convinced that the Trump team supported the Biden administration’s approach, if only because it would benefit Israel, according to a senior administration official who insisted on anonymity to discuss conversations between the two camps.

拜登的中东和平谈判特使阿莫斯·霍克斯坦向特朗普的助手简要介绍了他在11月5日大选后不久为结束黎巴嫩战事所进行的会谈，并在本周即将达成协议时再次介绍了他的谈判。据一名因涉及两个阵营之间的对话而不愿透露姓名的高级政府官员透露，那次接触给他留下的印象是，特朗普团队支持拜登政府的做法，尽管可能只是因为它对以色列有利。

Mr. Trump’s efforts to begin reshaping America’s policy toward the rest of the world have raised questions about his intentions and the propriety of some of his actions. Mr. Musk, the world’s richest person, in particular has been at the center of some of the outreach.

特朗普企图重塑美国对其他国家的政策，引发了人们对他的意图和一些行为是否恰当的质疑。世界首富马斯克尤其处于一些外交活动的中心。

就在特朗普威胁征收关税引发国际关系动荡一天后，美国总统拜登于周二宣布以色列和黎巴嫩停火。

Mr. Musk met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations this month to discuss how to ease tensions between the two countries. On another occasion, during a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Mr. Trump handed the phone to Mr. Musk, whose satellite network Ukraine relies on for its efforts to push back Russian invaders.

马斯克本月会见了伊朗驻联合国大使，讨论如何缓解两国之间的紧张关系。还有一次，在与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通话时，特朗普把手机递给了马斯克，乌克兰抵抗俄罗斯侵略的行动需要依赖他的卫星网络。

This is the kind of communication that made Mr. Trump furious when the shoe was on the other foot. After John F. Kerry, a secretary of state under Mr. Obama, met with Iranian officials during the Trump administration, Mr. Trump called that an outrageous interference with his foreign policy and repeatedly pressed Attorney General William P. Barr and others to prosecute Mr. Kerry. The Logan Act of 1799 prohibits private citizens from conducting American foreign policy, but no one has ever been successfully prosecuted under the act.

像这样的交流如果是别人在做，会让特朗普大会光火。奥巴马政府的国务卿约翰·克里在特朗普执政期间与伊朗官员会面后，特朗普称这是对其外交政策的粗暴干涉，并一再敦促司法部长威廉·巴尔等人起诉克里。1799年的《洛根法案》禁止普通公民参与美国的外交政策，但从未有人根据该法案被成功起诉。

Mr. Trump, of course, is no ordinary private citizen. The voters have chosen him to run foreign policy for the next four years, so if he chooses to get started before his inauguration, it is hard for Mr. Biden to object.

当然，特朗普不是普通公民。选民们选择他来负责未来四年的外交政策，所以如果他选择在就职典礼前开始，拜登很难反对。

“You can’t stop it,” said John R. Bolton, who served as national security adviser to Mr. Trump and later became a vocal critic. “If he’s talking about what happens after the 20th of January, he’s perfectly within his rights to do it. In a responsible transition, if a call with Putin occurred, you tell the existing government. But we don’t have a responsible transition.”

“你阻止不了，”曾任特朗普的国家安全顾问、后来成为他的激烈批评者的约翰·博尔顿说。“如果他说的是1月20日之后会发生什么，他完全有权利这么做。在负责任的过渡中，如果与普京通了电话，你要告诉现任政府。但我们没有一个负责任的过渡。”