In the world of cheap drones, Skydio was the great American hope. Its autonomous flying machines gave the U.S. defense and police agencies an alternative to Chinese manufacturers, free from the security concerns tied to dependence on Chinese supply chains.

在廉价无人机的世界里，Skydio是美国人最大的希望。它的自主飞行器为美国国防和警察机构提供了中国制造商之外的另一种选择，可以摆脱依赖中国供应链带来的安全担忧。

But Skydio’s vulnerabilities came into sharp focus days before the U.S. presidential election, when the Chinese authorities imposed sanctions and severed the company’s access to essential battery supplies.

但在美国总统大选前几天，中国当局对Skydio实施了制裁，切断了对该公司至关重要的电池供应，让人们清楚地看到Skydio的薄弱之处。

Overnight, the San Mateo, Calif.-based Skydio, the largest American maker of drones, scrambled to find new suppliers. The move slowed Skydio’s deliveries to its customers, which include the U.S. military.

一夜之间，总部位于加州圣马特奥的美国最大无人机制造商Skydio只得匆忙寻找新的供应商。这减缓了Skydio向包括美国军方在内的客户的交付速度。

“This is an attack on Skydio, but it’s also an attack on you,” Adam Bry, the chief executive, told customers.

“这是对Skydio的攻击，但也是对你们的攻击，”该公司首席执行官亚当·布里告诉客户。

Behind the move was a message from China’s leaders to Donald J. Trump, who would go on to win the election with a promise of new China sanctions and tariffs: Hit us and we’ll strike back harder.

此举背后是中国领导人向特朗普发出的信息：如果打击我们，我们会更猛烈地反击。特朗普承诺对中国实施新的制裁和关税，并且最终赢得大选。

From the campaign trail to his cabinet appointments, Mr. Trump has made it clear that he believes a confrontation with China over trade and technology is inevitable. In the first Trump administration, the Chinese government took mostly symbolic and equivalent measures after U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions. This time, China is poised to escalate its responses, experts say, and could aim aggressive and targeted countermeasures at American companies.

从竞选活动到内阁任命，特朗普都明确表示，他认为与中国在贸易和技术方面的对抗是不可避免的。第一届特朗普政府期间，中国在美国实行关税和贸易限制后采取的大多是象征性的对等措施。专家表示，这一次，中国准备升级其回应，并可能针对美国公司采取积极和有针对性的反制措施。

中国领导人向承诺对中国实施新制裁和征收新关税的特朗普发出了明确的信息： 如果攻击我们，我们的还击会更狠。

“During Trade War 1.0, Beijing was fairly careful to meet the tariffs that the U.S. put in place,” said Jude Blanchette, a China scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Now they are signaling their tolerance for accepting and dishing out pain,” he said. “It’s clear for political reasons that Beijing is not willing to stand by and watch as significant new waves of tariffs come in.”

“在贸易战1.0期间，北京相当谨慎地应对美国设置的关税，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的中国问题学者任白明(Jude Blanchette)说。“现在，他们正在表明自己的忍耐限度，并实施打击，”他说。“很明显，出于政治原因，北京不愿眼睁睁地看着新一轮关税大潮的到来。”

China has had time to prepare. During Mr. Trump’s first term, officials in Beijing began drafting laws that mirror U.S. tactics, allowing them to create blacklists and impose sanctions on American companies, cutting them off from critical resources. The goal has been to use China’s status as the world’s factory floor to exact punishment.

中国有时间准备。在特朗普的第一个任期内，北京的官员开始起草与美国的策略相应的法律，允许中国制定黑名单，对美国公司实施制裁，切断它们获得关键资源的渠道。其目标是利用中国作为世界工厂的地位来实施惩罚。

Since 2019, China has created an “unreliable entity list” to penalize companies that undermine national interests, introduced rules to punish firms that comply with U.S. restrictions on Chinese entities and expanded its export-control laws. The broader reach of these laws enables Beijing to potentially choke global access to critical materials like rare earths and lithium — essential components in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.

自2019年以来，中国制定了一份“不可靠实体清单”，以惩罚损害其国家利益的公司，它还制定规则，惩罚遵守美国对中国实体限制的公司，并扩大了出口管制法。这些法律的影响范围得到了扩大，使北京有可能遏制全球对稀土和锂等关键材料的获取——从智能手机到电动汽车，这些材料都是必不可少的。

The new tools are part of what one Communist Party publication described as an effort to “provide legal support for countering hegemonism and power politics and safeguarding the interests of the country and the people.”

这些新工具是一份中共出版物所描述的“为反对霸权主义和强权政治、维护国家和人民利益提供法律支持”的一部分。

自2019年以来，中国已制定规则，使其有可能限制全球对稀土和锂等重要材料的获取，而这些材料是智能手机和电动汽车的关键。

Collectively, the strategy marks a calculated shift to counter Mr. Trump’s expected policies when he takes office. The fallout could significantly disrupt operations for American companies.

总的来说，这一战略标志着深思熟虑的转变，目的是应对预期特朗普上任后会采取的政策。该战略的后果可能会严重扰乱美国公司的运营。

That raises the stakes for businesses and the economy as the new U.S. administration readies its first salvo in what could become a more ruthless second round of trade conflict between the United States and China.

这增加了企业和经济的风险，与此同时，美国新政府正准备打响第一枪，开启两国之间可能会变得更加残酷的第二轮贸易冲突。

Washington’s relationship with Beijing was already fraught. President Biden has largely continued Mr. Trump’s confrontational policies, punishing some Chinese companies with sanctions and restricting others from the U.S. market. This month, the U.S. government announced a ban on 29 Chinese companies over connections to forced labor in the country’s western region of Xinjiang.

华盛顿与北京的关系本来就很紧张。拜登总统在很大程度上延续了特朗普的对抗性政策，通过制裁惩罚一些中国公司，并限制其他公司进入美国市场。本月，美国政府宣布对29家中国公司实施禁令，原因是这些公司与中国西部新疆地区的强迫劳动有关。

On Monday, Mr. Trump went further. The president-elect said he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on all products coming into the country from China.

周一，特朗普更进一步。这位候任总统表示，他将对所有从中国进入美国的产品额外征收10%的关税。

China has given a preview of the lengths it is willing to go to counter U.S. government sanctions.

对于为了对抗美国政府制裁，中国将不惜付出什么样的代价，中国已经做出了预告。

In September, the Chinese authorities accused PVH, the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, of “discriminating” against products in Xinjiang, putting it onto its “unreliable entities list.” It was the first time that Beijing punished a foreign company for removing Xinjiang cotton from its supply chain to meet U.S. trade rules.

9月，中国当局指责Calvin Klein和Tommy Hilfiger的母公司PVH“歧视”新疆的产品，并将其列入“不可靠实体名单”。这是北京第一次惩罚一家为遵守美国贸易规则而将新疆棉花从其供应链中剔除的外国公司。

A few weeks later, a think tank with ties to China’s internet regulatory agency called for a review of Intel, the American chip company, for selling products that “constantly harmed” China’s national security and interests. The last company subject to a cybersecurity review, the American chip maker Micron, was ultimately cut off from supplying chips to a significant portion of the Chinese market.

几周后，一家与中国互联网监管机构有联系的智库呼吁对美国芯片公司英特尔进行审查，理由是英特尔销售的产品“不断损害”中国的国家安全和利益。上一家接受网络安全审查的公司是美国芯片制造商美光，该公司最终被切断了向中国很大一部分市场供应芯片的渠道。

在受到网络安全审查后，美国芯片制造商美光公司被禁止向中国市场的大部分地区供应芯片。

The Chinese rules leave both PVH and Intel stuck in the tussle between the two global superpowers. Other companies might soon find themselves in a similar position. The conundrum for firms is whether and how to follow U.S. trade restrictions, when doing so could trigger Chinese reprisals.

中国的规定使PVH和英特尔陷入了这两个全球超级大国之间的争斗中。其他公司可能很快就会发现自己处于类似的境地。企业面临的难题是，在遵循美国贸易限制措施可能引发中国报复的情况下，是否以及如何遵循这些措施。

Forcing companies to question their business practices might be China’s intention, experts say. At the same time, Chinese officials need to strike a balance in their punishments. If they go too far in penalizing foreign companies, they could scare away investors when financial markets are worried about China’s economy.

专家表示，中国的意图可能是迫使企业重新考虑自身的商业行为。与此同时，中国官员需要在惩罚方面取得平衡。如果他们在惩罚外国公司方面做得太过，可能会在金融市场对中国经济感到担忧时吓跑投资者。

And in some cases, Chinese companies still need what the United States offers, including microchips in electronic devices or soybeans that Chinese farmers feed their cattle. Many of China’s state-owned enterprises still use computers powered by Intel chips.

在某些情况下，中国公司仍然需要美国提供的产品，包括电子设备中的微芯片，乃至中国农民用作牛饲料的大豆。中国许多国有企业仍在使用英特尔芯片驱动的电脑。

“They have this dilemma where they want to signal to the U.S. government but they don’t want to scare foreign investors and companies too much,” said Andrew Gilholm, a China expert at Control Risks, a consulting firm. “They want companies to know that there is a cost to being too enthusiastic about complying with U.S. and other regulations.”

“他们处于两难境地，既想向美国政府发出信号，又不想让外国投资者和公司太害怕，”咨询公司Control Risks的中国问题专家安德鲁·吉洛姆说。“他们希望企业知道，过于积极地遵守美国和其他国家的法规是有代价的。”

The strategy, he said, is evolving into one that looks more like “supply chain warfare.”

他说，这种战略正在演变成一种看起来更像“供应链战”的战略。

Still, for the many companies that rely more on China than China does on them, Beijing has the ability to exact major pain. Skydio, the drone maker, had spent years building a supply chain outside China but remained reliant on the country for one crucial item: batteries.

尽管如此，对于许多依赖中国多于中国依赖它们的公司来说，北京有能力让它们遭受巨大痛苦。无人机制造商Skydio花了数年时间在中国以外建立供应链，但在电池这一关键项目上仍然依赖中国。

本周，特朗普表示，他将对所有从中国进口的产品额外再征收10%的关税。

After the sanctions by China, there is no quick fix. It can take months to make the necessary design changes and secure new suppliers. In a statement, Skydio said it would be forced to ration batteries. That means its customers, which include fire departments, can get only one battery per drone, severely limiting how long a craft can fly. The company said it planned to have new supplies by spring.

在中国实施制裁之后，没有什么快速的解决办法。进行必要的设计更改和找到新的供应商可能需要几个月的时间。Skydio在声明中表示将被迫对电池进行定量配给。这意味着包括消防部门在内的客户每架无人机只能得到一块电池，这严重限制了续航时长。

“If there was ever any doubt, this action makes clear that the Chinese government will use supply chains as a weapon to advance their interests over ours,” Skydio wrote.

“如果有任何疑问的话，这一行动清楚地表明，中国政府将把供应链作为一种武器，将他们的利益置于我们的利益之上，”Skydio写道。

An editorial in Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, celebrated the success of the sanctions on Skydio, noting in a headline, “U.S. company sanctioned by China ‘cries out in pain,’ revealing their American mask.” The article said the reprisal was merited because Skydio was a part of U.S. government efforts to create a “non-red supply chain” outside China.

中国共产党的小报《环球时报》的一篇社论庆祝了对Skydio制裁的成功，并在标题中指出，“被中方制裁的美企‘喊疼’撕开美式假面。”文章说，这样的报复是理所当然的，因为Skydio是美国政府在中国境外建立“非红供应链”努力的一部分。

The solution for Skydio was simple, Global Times continued. Don’t “serve as a tool for the United States to contain China” or “be prepared to bear the consequences of such actions.”

《环球时报》还写道，Skydio的解决方案很简单。不要“充当美国遏制中国的工具”，否则就要“持续承担这样做的后果”。