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中国政府拯救楼市的做法惹恼了谁

DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, CLAIRE FU

2024年6月6日

在解决占中国经济四分之一的房地产行业崩溃问题时,政府必须谨慎行事。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

For much of the past decade, China’s efforts to curb speculation on real estate grew broader and more extensive.

在过去十年的大部分时间里,中国遏制房地产投机的力度越来越大,范围越来越广。

Shanghai declared that anyone who got a divorce would be subject to restrictions on apartment buying for three years, to counter couples who were splitting up just so they could buy second homes as investments. In Chengdu, in western China, only local residents who paid social welfare taxes and drew a winning ticket in a lottery could buy a new place. In the city of Tangshan, in the country’s northeast, anyone buying a home had to hold the property for at least three and a half years.

上海做出了规定,任何离婚的人在三年内都将受到购房限制,以打击那些仅仅为了购买第二套住房作为投资而离婚的夫妇。在成都,只有缴纳社会福利税并且摇号成功的当地居民才能购买新房。在唐山,任何买房者都必须持有房产至少三年半。

Those restrictions, along with limitations in other regions, have been lifted as China tries to revive a severe property downturn. Since last year, more than 25 Chinese cities have eliminated all restrictions on real estate purchases, as many local governments scrapped rules that prevented developers from cutting prices.

随着中国试图重振严重低迷的房地产市场,上述限制,乃至其他地区的限制都已被取消。自去年以来,中国已有超过25个城市取消了所有房地产限购措施,许多地方还取消了阻止开发商降价的规定。

Last month, the central government went further. It lowered down-payment requirements and relaxed mortgage rules, and urged local governments to buy unsold homes and convert them into public housing.

上个月,中央政府更进一步。它降低了首付要求,放宽了房贷规定,并敦促地方政府购买未售出的房屋,将其改造成保障性住房。

But some of China’s efforts to stimulate home buying have upset one of the country’s most vocal constituencies: existing homeowners.

但中国刺激购房的一些举措却让中国一个最有发言权的群体不开心,那就是现有房主。

Many Chinese homeowners, who pinched and saved to buy apartments that serve as a main household investment, are now worried that the relaxing of restrictions will depress prices for their properties. The new policies have given rise to a dose of NIMBY-ism, short for “not in my backyard,” in a country ruled by the Communist Party.

许多房主都是靠省吃俭用买房,将其作为一项主要家庭投资,现在他们担心,放宽限制会压低房产价格。在这个由共产党统治的国家,新政策引发了一股邻避效应。

今年1月,深圳新建的公寓和住宅。
今年1月,深圳新建的公寓和住宅。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

The government must thread a needle as it tries to address the collapse of an industry that accounts for a quarter of the Chinese economy. While discontent over the economy could shake social stability, so could a backlash by homeowners, many of whom are holding on to hope that their properties will build wealth for future generations.

在解决占中国经济四分之一的房地产行业崩溃问题时,政府必须谨慎行事。虽然对经济的不满可能会动摇社会稳定,但房主的反弹同样如此,他们当中许多人都希望自己的房产能为子孙后代创造财富。

Many of the restrictions were lifted by the same policymakers who had introduced the rules only a few years earlier to adhere to the decree by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that “houses are for living, not for speculation.”

许多限制都是由几年前制定这些措施的政策制定者取消的,当时是为了遵守中国领导人习近平的指示:“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”。

When Chengdu lifted its restrictions in late April, one person lodged a complaint on a government website saying it was unfair to people who had earned the right to buy homes when the rules were in place. The complaint said the person had moved to Chengdu and paid social security taxes for several years to be eligible to buy a house.

当成都在4月下旬取消限购时,有人在政府网站投诉,称这对那些在限购政策实施时获得购房权利的人不公平。投诉称,自己已经搬到成都,并缴纳了数年的社会保障税,才有资格买房。

“I regarded being qualified to buy a house in Chengdu as an honor and proof of how hard I worked,” the individual wrote. But now anyone can buy a home, even those “who made no contribution” to the city. The person asked that officials “restore the purchase restrictions as soon as possible.”

“曾经,我把拥有在成都买房的资格当作一种荣耀,一种自我奋斗的证明,”此人写道。但现在,谁都可以买房子,即使是那些“对成都毫无贡献的”的人。此人要求官员“尽快恢复限购”。

In recent years, one of China’s rare acts of defiance came from homeowners. Starting in 2022, hundreds of thousands of Chinese homeowners banded together and refused to pay loans on half-finished properties. Since then, the government has put a priority on policies that urge developers to finish construction on sold properties.

近年来,中国罕见的反抗行为之一就是来自房主。从2022年开始,数以万计的房主联合起来,拒绝为期房支付贷款。从那以后,政府把敦促开发商完成已售房产建设的政策放在了优先位置。

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the investment bank Natixis, said it was difficult to encourage buying by removing restrictions because it reinforced concerns that there was something wrong with the market.

投资银行法国外贸银行亚太地区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗表示,很难通过取消限制来刺激购买,因为这会加剧人们的担忧,认为市场出了问题。

“It’s very hard to lift them in time — it’s usually too late,” Ms. Garcia-Herrero said. “It is not a solution by any measure.”

“很难及时采取这样的措施——通常为时已晚,”加西亚-埃雷罗说。“无论如何,这都不是解决办法。”

00china backlash 03 wljp master1050但中国刺激购房的一些举措却让中国最有发言权的其中一个群体不开心,也就是现有房主。

The prices for new homes in China’s biggest cities have fallen for 11 straight months. In April, they fell 0.6 percent from the prior month, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Prices fell by a similar amount in smaller second- and third-tier cities as well.

中国大城市的新房价格已经连续11个月下跌。根据中国国家统计局的数据,今年4月,房价环比下降了0.6%。较小的二三线城市房价也出现了类似幅度的下跌。

The plunge in prices is a recent phenomenon. Local and city governments had prevented real estate firms from cutting prices drastically. The controls were put in place to thwart developers from jacking up prices too aggressively.

房价暴跌是最近才有的现象。地方和城市政府曾经阻止房地产公司大幅降价。而之前的控制措施则是为了阻止开发商过于激进地抬高房价。

But around the end of last year, as the slowdown lingered, and it became harder to sell homes, local authorities started allowing developers to slash prices.

但在去年年底左右,随着经济放缓的持续,房屋销售变得更加困难,地方政府开始允许开发商降价。

Chengdu officials in November, responding to a complaint left on a government website, penalized a local developer for cutting prices below list price, saying the project was “disrupting the normal order of the real estate market.”

去年11月,成都官员在回应政府网站上的投诉时,对当地一家开发商将价格降至标价以下的行为进行了处罚,称该项目“涉嫌扰乱房地产市场正常秩序”。

Five months later, another homeowner complaint about developers that were cutting prices got the brushoff. Chengdu officials said it was not taking any action because the developer was using a “market-adjusted price.”

五个月后,另一位房主抱怨开发商降价,但遭到了冷落。成都官员表示,由于开发商使用的是“市场调节价”,他们不会采取任何行动。

In the central city of Xi’an, Fayre Liu bought a four-bedroom apartment for about $420,000 in January. Later, she discovered that Poly Group, a state-owned developer, was offering more recent buyers discounts of about $40,000 on similar apartments. She said she had learned the developer’s sales people pressured buyers to make a down payment and then announced major discounts one day after receiving the deposits.

在西安市中心,菲·刘(音)今年1月花了大约300万元买了一套四居室。后来,她发现,国有开发商保利集团向最近购买类似公寓的买家提供约29万元的折扣。她说,她了解到,开发商的销售人员向买家施压,要求他们支付首付款,然后在收到定金的第二天宣布大幅折扣。

“Anyone would be very furious,” Ms. Liu, 27, said. “You’re completely defrauding consumers.”

“大家都会很气愤,”27岁的菲·刘说。“完全在这欺诈消费者。”

00china backlash 02 wljp master10502022年,中国房地产开发商保利集团在广东东莞正在建设的小区。

Ms. Liu said homeowners in her apartment complex had called the Xi’an mayor’s office to demand that they receive compensation equivalent to the discounts. The authorities responded that they had no right to halt the discounts, comparing them to a sale at a shopping mall.

菲·刘说,她家小区的业主打电话给西安市市长办公室,要求得到相当于折扣的补偿。当局回应说,他们无权停止折扣,并将其比作商场的促销活动。

The protesting homeowners feared that Poly would cut corners on construction to offset the money lost from discounts. When some homeowners went to Poly’s offices, they were confronted by police officers who warned them not to make trouble or disturb the state-owned enterprise’s business.

抗议的业主担心保利会在施工中偷工减料,以抵消折扣带来的损失。一些业主前往保利的售楼处时遇到了警察,警察警告他们不要闹事,或打扰这家国有企业的业务。

“This is collusion between the government and developers,” Ms. Liu said.

“这就是政府和开发商勾结,”菲·刘说。

Poly did not respond to an email seeking comment.

保利没有回复寻求置评的电子邮件。

The government’s relaxation on price cuts addresses two protracted problems.

政府对放宽降价限制解决了两个长期存在的问题。

First, it allows money to flow to debt-laden developers to make interest payments and repay loans. Second, it whittles away the inventory of unsold homes. The Australian banking group ANZ estimated that it would take 3.6 years to process all the unsold residential properties in China, 50 percent longer than in the country’s last major real estate slump in 2014.

首先,它允许资金流向负债累累的开发商,用于支付利息和偿还贷款。其次,它减少了未售出房屋的库存。澳大利亚银行集团澳新银行估计,处理中国所有未售出的住宅房产需要3.6年的时间,比2014年中国上一次房地产大萧条的时间长了50%。

The government initiative, announced last month, to convert unsold homes into subsidized housing has been a particular cause of friction. Some homeowners are unhappy about the mixing of public housing and private developments.

政府上月宣布的将未售房屋改造为保障性住房的计划尤其引发了摩擦。一些业主对公共住房和私人开发项目混杂在一起感到不满。

Last month, someone filed a complaint on the Sichuan Province website about a local state-owned company’s turning some of its new houses into public housing. The person, who had bought a home in that complex two years earlier, said over 100 new apartments were being turned into public housing without any consultation with existing homeowners. In the complaint, the individual expressed displeasure about having to pay high prices for the property yet receiving the “quality of public housing.”

上个月,有人在四川省网站上投诉当地一家国有企业将部分新建房屋改为公共住房。这位两年前在该小区买了一套房子的人说,有100多套新公寓被改造成公共住房,却没有同现有房主协商。在投诉中,此人对于支付高价购买房产,却只能得到“公租房小区的品质”表示不满。

00china backlash 04 wljp master1050虽然对经济的不满可能会动摇社会稳定,但房主的反弹同样如此。

“The value of the community has plummeted,” the person wrote. “Property owners who have bought homes are suffering unspeakable misery.”

“小区价值一落千丈,”此人写道。“已购房业主都苦不堪言。”

In a response to the complaint, the state-owned firm said that it was supporting national policy and that the homes were subject to “market regulated price management.”

在对投诉的回复中,这家国有企业表示,它支持国家政策,这些房屋受“市场价格管理”的约束。

Kevin Duan, who bought an apartment in an almost finished complex in the central Chinese city of Changsha, said one of the compound’s 20 buildings would become public housing. He said homeowners were furious and demanded that the affordable housing be segregated from the rest of the complex.

凯文·段(音)在长沙一个几乎完工的小区购买了一套公寓,他说,该小区20栋楼中,有一栋将成为公共住房。他说,业主们非常愤怒,要求将经济适用房与建筑群的其他部分隔离开来。

“A commercial housing community should not have public rental housing,” Mr. Duan said. “If I had known it was a complex with public housing from the beginning, I definitely would not have considered it.”

“我觉得一个商品房小区不应该出现有公租房这种形式,”凯文·段说。“如果我一开始就知道是公租房小区的话,我肯定是不会考虑。”

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