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中国通缩警报:居民消费价格创14年来最大跌幅

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年2月9日

合肥的蔚来汽车装配线。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Consumer prices fell last month in China by the most since the global financial crisis in 2009, the latest sign that weak spending and a glut of output from factories and farms are forcing businesses to offer discounts.

中国上个月的居民消费价格创下2009年全球金融危机以来的最大降幅,这是消费疲软以及工厂和农场产出过剩,迫使企业提供折扣的最新迹象。

The decline in consumer prices was mostly confined to food and electric cars. But wholesale prices charged by factories and other producers also fell last month, and have been down from their levels a year earlier in every month since October 2022.

居民消费价格的下降主要体现在食品和电动汽车。但工厂和其他生产商的批发价格在上个月也有所下降,而且自2022年10月以来,每月的批发价格都低于上年同期水平。

A broad decline in the overall level of prices, a phenomenon known as deflation, could be very troublesome for the economy. Falling prices make it hard for households and companies to keep up on monthly payments for mortgages, corporate loans and other debts.

居民消费价格总体水平的普遍下降,即所谓的通货紧缩现象,会给经济造成很大的麻烦。物价下跌会使家庭和企业难以每月支付抵押贷款、企业贷款和其他债务。

“The deflation data add to a raft of other economic indicators that, on top of a struggling stock market and unraveling property market, pose an extraordinary challenge to the command and control approach of the Chinese government,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade and economics at Cornell University.

“通货紧缩数据是对一系列其他经济指标的补充,再加上挣扎中的股市和崩塌的房地产市场,这都对中国政府的指挥和控制方式构成了非同寻常的挑战,”康奈尔大学贸易与经济学教授埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德说。

China’s stock markets have fallen sharply this year, although they have trimmed their losses this week. China said on Wednesday that the official most directly responsible for oversight of the stock markets, Yi Huiman, had been replaced as leader of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Mr. Yi, 59, was replaced by Wu Qing, a longtime regulator.

今年以来,中国股市大幅下跌,不过本周跌幅有所收窄。中国政府周三表示,最直接负责监管股市的官员易会满已被撤换,不再担任中国证券监督管理委员会的领导职务。59岁的易会满被长期担任监管者的吴清取代。

The decline in prices does have one silver lining for China: It makes Chinese goods even more competitive in overseas markets. As many Chinese families have become increasingly wary of spending, manufacturers of everything from electric cars to solar panels are ramping up their exports to distant markets.

不过居民消费价格的下降也给中国带来了一线希望:它使中国商品在海外市场更具竞争力。由于许多中国家庭对消费变得越来越谨慎,从电动车到太阳能电池板等各种产品的制造商都在加大对远方市场的出口。

Consumer prices dropped 0.8 percent in January from a year earlier, a much larger drop than expected. That decline was driven by falling food prices, including a plunge of 17.3 percent in the price of pork.

1月居民消费价格环比下降0.8%,降幅远大于预期。这主要是受食品价格下跌的影响,其中猪肉价格下降17.3%。

The price of pork can be volatile, especially around Lunar New Year when family celebrations tend to push up demand. In 2023 the holiday fell in late January, likely pushing pork prices higher for the month. This year it’s nearly three weeks later, meaning prices could jump in February.

猪肉价格可能会出现波动,尤其是在农历新年前后,因为过年往往会推高需求。2023年的农历新年在1月下旬,可能推高了当月的猪肉价格。今年春节晚了将近三周,这意味着2月的价格可能会跳涨。

Excluding food, consumer prices were up 0.4 percent. Falling prices for electric cars were offset by slowly rising prices for clothing, health care and tourism.

除食品外,居民消费价格上涨了0.4%。电动车价格的下降被服装、医疗保健和旅游价格的缓慢上涨所抵消。

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