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中国5月出口创一年多以来最快增速

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年6月11日

上个月在中国的烟台港,出口汽车等待被装进为出口中国汽车而建造的国产船舶。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

China’s exports rose in May at the quickest pace in more than a year, the government said on Friday, as a flood of appliances, cars and electronics poured out of factories and the prospect of a global backlash grew.

中国政府周五表示,随着大量家电、汽车和电子产品涌出工厂,中国5月的出口增长速度创下一年多来的最快记录,在世界各地引发强烈的可能性大增。

The value of China’s exports climbed 7.6 percent compared with May 2023, even as the prices of many manufactured goods coming out of China are falling.

与2023年5月相比,中国的出口额增长了7.6%,尽管中国出口的许多制成品价格都在下降。

China is rapidly building new factories and expanding existing ones as part of a national strategy. But spending is weak by Chinese households, because of a long and increasingly steep slide in prices for their apartments.

作为国家战略的一部分,中国正在迅速建设新工厂并扩建现有工厂。但是,由于所持房产的价格长期下滑,而且下滑幅度越来越大,中国家庭的消费疲软。

Much of the extra factory production is being exported. With fewer Chinese families buying new apartments, fewer household appliances are sold domestically, for example. The government said that the value of exports of appliances climbed 18.3 percent in May compared with the same month a year earlier. And because demand is so weak in China, appliance prices have tumbled. The actual number of appliances exported last month rose 27.8 percent.

工厂增产的大部分产品都出口到了其他国家。例如,由于购买新楼房的中国家庭减少,国内家用电器的销量也随之减少。中国政府称,5月家电出口额比去年同期增长了18.3%。由于中国市场需求疲软,家电价格也随之下跌。上个月家电实际出口数量增长了27.8%。

China’s trade surplus, the difference between what it earns selling goods to the world and what it spends on imports, expanded in May to $82.6 billion. That was up 25.6 percent from a year earlier. It was the largest ever for May and one of the highest months ever except during the pandemic, when China exported huge quantities of medical gear, exercise equipment and other manufactured goods.

中国的贸易顺差,即中国向全球销售商品所赚取的收入与进口支出之间的差额,在5月扩大到826亿美元。这比去年同期增长了25.6%。这是5月录得的最大贸易顺差,也是除新冠大流行时期以外贸易顺差最大的月份之一,在疫情期间中国出口了大量医疗器械、运动器材和其他制成品。

China’s trade surplus has tended to be fairly low in May and much higher later in the year, when its exporters supply goods for the Christmas season.

中国的贸易顺差在5月往往相当低,而在下半年,即中国出口商为圣诞季供应货物的时候,则要高得多。

The quantity of many exports, not just household appliances, has been rising faster than their value. So many containers full of goods are leaving China, as fewer come back with imports, that shipping lines have been running short of containers in China.

不仅是家用电器,许多出口商品的数量增长都快于价值增长。越来越多装满货物的集装箱离开中国,而运回中国的进口货物却越来越少,以至于航运公司在中国的集装箱都不够用了。

The value of China’s imports rose only 1.8 percent in May.

5月,中国的进口额仅增长了1.8%。

Chinese companies are starting to face more trade barriers. President Biden raised tariffs on May 14 on about 4 percent of China’s exports to the United States. The European Union is expected to decide as soon as next week whether to impose tariffs on China’s electric car exports. Developing countries like Brazil and India are also taking steps to protect their factories and industrial workers from Chinese competition.

中国企业开始面临更多的贸易壁垒。美国总统拜登于5月14日对约4%的中国输美产品加征关税。欧盟预计最快将于下周决定是否对中国的电动汽车出口征收关税。巴西和印度等发展中国家也在采取措施,保护本国工厂和产业工人免受中国竞争的影响。

China said on Friday that the export value of trucks and cars rose 16.3 percent in May from a year earlier. The breakdown among gasoline-powered cars, electric cars and diesel trucks is typically released later in the month.

中国周五称,5月卡车和轿车出口额同比增长16.3%。汽油车、电动车和柴油卡车的细分数据通常在本月晚些时候公布。

Increased tariffs do not appear to have done much harm yet to China’s exports, and might even help in the short term. Some Chinese companies have rushed to send goods to emerging markets in Latin America and elsewhere before tariffs can take effect.

提高关税似乎尚未对中国的出口造成太大损害,甚至在短期内可能有所帮助。一些中国公司已经赶在关税生效前将货物运往拉美和其他地区的新兴市场。

In the past year, China has stepped up exports to Vietnam and Mexico, where goods can be reprocessed and then shipped on to the United States or Europe with low or no tariffs. These more complicated trade routes, coupled with weakness in China’s currency exchange rate, may reduce tariffs’ effectiveness, said Capital Economics, a research firm.

过去一年,中国加大了对越南和墨西哥的出口力度,在这些国家,商品可以经过再加工,然后以低关税或零关税运往美国或欧洲。研究公司Capital Economics表示,这些更为复杂的贸易路线,加上中国货币汇率的疲软,可能会降低关税的有效性。

“Even once tariffs are in force, their impact could be mitigated through trade rerouting and adjustments in the exchange rate,” the firm said in a research note.

该公司在一份研究报告中写道:“即使关税生效,其影响也可以通过贸易改道和汇率调整得到缓解。”

China’s rising surpluses are helping to offset a weak domestic economy.

中国不断增长的盈余正在帮助抵消国内经济的疲软。

The reluctance of Chinese consumers to spend is readily visible on the streets of Shanghai and Beijing. Many restaurants in Shanghai and Beijing are empty even on weekend nights. Stores have few or no customers, and shopkeepers stand around looking bored. Low-priced cosmetics made in China are squeezing out costlier foreign brands, and sales of spirits have faltered as consumers buy beer instead.

在上海和北京的大街小巷,中国消费者不愿消费的心态一目了然。京沪两地的许多餐馆即使在周末晚上也空无一人。商店里顾客寥寥无几,甚至没有顾客,店员们站在一旁显得百无聊赖。中国制造的低价化妆品正在挤掉价格较高的外国品牌,由于消费者选择啤酒,烈性酒的销售也出现下滑。

The United States this week reported that its trade deficit had widened significantly in April to $74.6 billion. J.P. Morgan said in a research note that the country’s trade deficit was likely to eat into its economic growth this spring, knocking nearly a full percentage point off the growth rate from April through June. The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first three months of this year.

美国本周报告称,其4月贸易赤字大幅扩大,达到746亿美元。摩根大通在一份研究报告中称,美国的贸易赤字很可能会侵蚀其今年春季的经济增长,使4月至6月的经济增长率下降近一个百分点。今年前三个月,美国经济年增长率为1.3%。

Li You对本文有研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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