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为什么越来越多法国年轻人投票支持极右翼

AURELIEN BREEDEN, AIDA ALAMI, DMITRY KOSTYUKOV

2024年7月5日

国民联盟的年轻支持者在巴黎郊区散发选举传单。

In the 1980s, a French punk rock band coined a rallying cry against the country’s far right that retained its punch over decades. The chant, still shouted at protests by the left, is “La jeunesse emmerde le Front National,” which cannot be translated well without curse words, but essentially tells the far right to get lost.

上世纪80年代,一支法国朋克摇滚乐队创造了反对该国极右翼的战斗口号,几十年来一直保持着冲击力。这句“La jeunesse emmerde le Front National”如今仍然是左翼人士在抗议时喊出的口号,如果不用脏话,就无法翻译出它的精髓,实际上,它的意思是让极右翼人士滚开。

That crude battle cry is emblematic of what had often been conventional wisdom not only in France, but also elsewhere — that young people frequently tilt left in their politics. Now, that notion has been challenged as increasing numbers of young people have joined swaths of the French electorate to support the far-right National Rally, a party once deemed too extreme to govern.

这个粗鲁的战斗口号是法国乃至世界各地一种普遍观念的象征——年轻人在政治上往往较为左倾。现在,随着越来越多的年轻人加入法国选民的行列,支持曾被认为过于极端、无法执政的极右翼国民联盟,这种观念受到了挑战。

The results from Sunday’s parliamentary vote, the first of a two-part election, showed young people across the political spectrum coming out to cast ballots in much greater numbers than in previous years. A majority of them voted for the left. But one of the biggest jumps was in the estimated numbers of 18-to-24-year-olds who cast ballots for the National Rally, in an election that many say could reshape France.

周日的议会选举是两部分选举中的第一部分,其结果显示不同政治派别的年轻人参加投票的人数比往年多得多。他们中的大多数投了左派的票。但在这场可能会重塑法国的选举中,增幅最大的是18岁至24岁选民中投票支持国民联盟的人数。

A quarter of the age group voted for the party, according to a recent poll by the Ifop polling institute, up from 12 percent just two years ago.

民调机构Ifop最近的调查显示,这个年龄段中有四分之一的人把票投给了该党,两年前这一比例仅为12%。

There is no one reason for such a significant shift. The National Rally has tried to sanitize its image, kicking out overtly antisemitic people, for instance, who shared the deep-seated prejudice of the movement’s founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen. And the party’s anti-immigrant platform resonates for some who see what they consider uncontrolled migration as a problem.

如此重大的转变并非只有一个原因。国民联盟试图净化自己的形象,比如,把那些与该党创始人让-玛丽·勒庞有着同样固执偏见的公开反犹人士踢出去。该党的反移民纲领引起了一些人的共鸣,他们认为不受控制的移民是一个问题。

03france youth 01 tvhl master1050第一轮议会选举结果公布后,巴黎反极右派集会上的年轻人。

The party also benefits from the passage of time; many of the young people backing the National Rally were toddlers, or not even born, when Mr. Le Pen shocked France by reaching the 2002 presidential runoff.

该党也受益于时间的流逝;2002年,勒庞震惊法国,进入总统决选时,支持该党的许多年轻人还在蹒跚学步,甚至还没有出生。

And the National Rally was savvy in its choice of a new face: Jordan Bardella, a charismatic 28-year-old with an impressive TikTok following who took over as its president from Mr. Le Pen’s daughter Marine in 2022. He has helped clean up the party’s racist image while also pushing for preferential treatment for French citizens over even legal migrants.

国民联盟在选择新面孔方面也很精明:28岁的若尔丹·巴尔德拉魅力非凡,在TikTok上拥有大量关注者,于2022年接替勒庞之女马琳担任该党主席。他帮助清理了该党的种族主义形象,同时还推动法国公民享受优于合法移民的待遇。

“We are from a generation that never knew Jean-Marie Le Pen,” said Enzo Marano, 23, the head of a local National Rally youth chapter who was recently handing out the party’s fliers in a Paris suburb. “We are the Bardella generation.”

“我们这一代人人不认识让-玛丽·勒庞,”23岁的恩佐·马拉诺说。他是当地国民联盟青年分会的负责人,最近在巴黎郊区分发该党传单时说。“我们是巴尔德拉一代。”

Mr. Bardella, analysts say, embodies the final stages of the National Rally’s decades-long efforts to rebrand itself — harnessing social media to reach young voters and repackaging its message into a slick social media campaign centered on him.

分析人士说,巴尔德拉代表了国民联盟数十年来重塑自身形象的最后阶段——利用社交媒体来吸引年轻选民,并将其信息重新包装成一场以他为中心的华丽社交媒体活动。

Focusing on Mr. Bardella is a crucial tactic for the party, whose founders included former Nazi collaborators and some of whose members still come under fire for racist or antisemitic comments.

关注巴尔德拉是该党的一项关键策略,而该党的创始人包括前纳粹合作者,其中一些成员仍因种族主义或反犹言论而受到抨击。

“When you talk more about the party itself, you have to talk about that party’s history and its ideology,” said Laurent Lardeux, a sociologist at the National Institute of Youth and Popular Education. But when the campaign centered on a person, he added, “You can set ideology aside and talk much more about character, posture — it’s branding and communication.”

“当你更多地谈论这个政党本身时,你也必须谈论这个政党的历史和它的意识形态,”法国国家青年与大众教育研究所(的社会学家劳伦特·拉杜说。但当竞选活动以个人为中心时,他补充说,“你可以把意识形态放在一边,更多地谈论性格、姿态——这是品牌塑造和沟通。”

03france youth 04 tvhl master1050巴黎郊区的反国民联盟集会海报。

That strategy, combined with growing anger against President Emmanuel Macron, appears to have worked so far. The National Rally trounced Mr. Macron’s party in recent European parliamentary elections, a poor showing that led him to call snap elections for France’s Parliament.

到目前为止,与民众对马克龙总统日益增长的愤怒相结合,这一策略似乎取得了成效。国民联盟在最近的欧洲议会选举中击败马克龙的政党,糟糕的表现导致马克龙要求法国议会举行紧急选举。

But his gamble that the nation would shift back to the center appeared to fail when the National Rally dominated that election, too, which heads to a runoff for most seats this weekend.

但他押注国家将会重新转向中间立场的赌博似乎失败了,因为国民联盟也在这次选举中占据了主导地位,选举的大部分席位将在本周末进行决选。

The far right’s growing popularity has alarmed the left, which is still the choice of most young voters. The New Popular Front, an alliance of left-wing parties, got 42 percent of the votes of people age 18 to 24 on Sunday, more than any other group, according to Ifop.

极右翼势力的日益壮大令左翼感到震惊,虽然左翼仍是大多数年轻选民的选择。Ifop的数据显示,左翼政党联盟新人民阵线周日在18岁至24岁人群中获得了42%的选票,比其他任何团体都多。

Left-wing activists are now working hard to get out the vote for this Sunday’s runoff.

左翼活动人士正在努力为本周日的决选争取选票。

“We don’t have a choice,” Amadou Ka, a candidate for the New Popular Front, said recently while campaigning in Creil, a town about 30 miles north of Paris.

“我们别无选择,”新人民阵线的候选人阿马杜·卡最近在巴黎以北约48公里的克里尔镇竞选时说。

The participation rate for people age 18 to 24 surged to 56 percent during the first round of voting, up from 25 percent in 2022, according to Ifop.

Ifop的数据显示,在第一轮投票中,18至24岁人群的参与率从2022年的25%飙升至56%。

03france youth 03 tvhl master1050在巴黎郊区多元文化社区组织协会Ghett'up的办公室里等待第一轮投票结果。极右翼的表演引起了一阵惊呼。

Analysts say young people are more likely to vote when a lot is at stake, as is the case in this election, which could bring the National Rally to power for the first time. If the party were to win an absolute majority, Mr. Macron would almost certainly be forced to appoint Mr. Bardella as prime minister, giving him control over domestic policy.

分析人士说,当选举事关重大时,年轻人更有可能投票,就像这次选举的情况一样,这次选举可能会使国民联盟首次掌权。如果该党赢得绝对多数,马克龙几乎肯定会被迫任命巴尔德拉为总理,让他掌控国内政策。

For those who support the right, this is the National Rally’s big chance.

对于支持右翼的人来说,这是国民联盟的大好机会。

“We are at power’s doorstep,” Mr. Marano said as he passed out campaign material.

“我们就站在权力的门口,”马拉诺一边分发竞选材料一边说。

Some people were openly hostile, crumpling the leaflets and angrily referring to the party’s antisemitic and racist past. “This, to me, is fascism,” one older man said in broken French, pointing to a leaflet featuring a beaming Mr. Bardella.

一些人公开表示敌意,把传单揉成一团,愤怒地提到该党的反犹和种族主义历史。“对我来说,这就是法西斯主义,”一名年长的男子指着一份印有笑容满面的巴尔德拉的传单,用蹩脚的法语说。

Olivier Galland, a sociologist at the National Center for Scientific Research, said Mr. Bardella appealed to young working-class voters, many in rural areas, who often struggled to secure stable jobs.

国家科学研究中心的社会学家奥利维尔·加兰说,巴尔德拉对年轻的工薪阶层选民很有吸引力,其中很多来自农村地区,往往很难找到稳定的工作。

“Bardella embodies that part of France’s youth that feels forgotten by traditional politicians,” he said.

 “巴尔德拉体现了法国年轻人中感觉被传统政界人士遗忘的那部分人,”他说。

Noah Ludon, 19, a history student who joined the National Rally this month, said he identified with Mr. Bardella because they both grew up in middle-class families in Parisian suburbs with large immigrant populations.

19岁的历史系学生诺亚·卢东本月加入了国民联盟。他说,他认同巴尔德拉,因为他们都成长于巴黎郊区移民人口众多的中产阶级家庭。

“I don’t feel at home anymore,” Mr. Ludon said, referring to an influx of migrants. “Finding a French butcher has become hard.” Asked to elaborate, he said he meant a butcher that was not halal.

“我再也没有家的感觉了,”卢东在谈到移民潮的时候说。“找一个法国屠夫都变得很难。”当被要求详细说明时,他说他指的是非清真的屠夫。

Mr. Ludon, who said his mother had been assaulted in a supermarket parking lot, said crime was also a big concern.

卢东说,他的母亲曾一家超市的停车场遭到袭击,他说犯罪也是一个大问题。

Such statements echo Mr. Bardella’s talking points, shared with his more than 1.8 million followers on TikTok. Although other French politicians are also on TikTok, Mr. Bardella is known for being particularly adept and gets more likes and comments than other politicians — even those like Mr. Macron who have far more followers.

这些言论与巴尔德拉在TikTok上与180多万关注者分享的观点如出一辙。尽管其他法国政界人士也在使用TikTok,但巴德拉以特别擅长使用这一平台而闻名,他比其他政界人士获得了更多的点赞和评论——即使马克龙拥有的关注者更多。

03france youth 09 bzkj master1050巴尔德拉是国民联盟的新面孔,28岁的他魅力四射,在TikTok上拥有众多粉丝。

“He is good at balancing serious and lighter content, surfing on trends, showing a personal side,” said Marie Guyomarc’h, a spokeswoman for Visibrain, a company that analyzes social media. “He’s not the only one,” she added, “but he’s the only one for whom it has worked so well.”

“他擅长平衡严肃和轻松的内容,紧跟潮流,展示个性,”分析社交媒体的公司Visibrain的发言人玛丽·古约马克说。“他不是唯一一个,但他是唯一一个取得这么好效果的人。”

03france youth 06 tvhl master1050分析人士说,当选举事关重大时,年轻人更有可能投票,这次选举就属于这种情况,它可能会使国民联盟首次掌权。

It is just that chumminess, and the far-right agenda he is working to humanize, that frightens many young people from immigrant backgrounds or who belong to ethnic minorities.

正是这种和蔼可亲的态度,以及他正在努力使之人性化的极右翼议程,让许多有移民背景或属于少数族裔的年轻人感到害怕。

Rania Daki, 21, a student and activist who grew up in Aubervilliers, a Paris suburb, said that talk of Ms. Le Pen scared her as a child — back then, she recalled, those who supported the far right did so in hushed tones.

21岁的拉尼亚·达基是学生和活动人士,在巴黎郊区奥贝维利埃长大。她说,小时候,勒庞的言论让她感到害怕——她回忆说,当时那些支持极右翼的人都是悄声说话。

“Now, it has become completely normal,” Ms. Daki said.

“现在,这种事已经完全正常了,”达基说。

When the far right’s percentage of the vote appeared on a television screen on Sunday in the offices of Ghett’up, a community organizing association in the multicultural Paris suburb of Saint-Denis, there was a gasp.

周日,极右翼的得票率出现在巴黎多元文化的圣德尼郊区社区组织协会Ghett ’up办公室的电视屏幕上时,人们倒吸了一口冷气。 

“Even before these results, people were attacked, insulted and spit on,” said Mariam Touré, 22, a law student and community activist who was at the event. Her family fled civil war in Ivory Coast in 2003 and arrived in France in 2009.

“甚至在这些结果出来之前,人们就遭到了攻击、侮辱和唾骂,”在场的22岁的法律系学生、社区活动人士玛丽亚姆·图雷说。她的家人于2003年逃离科特迪瓦内战,于2009年来到了法国。

“They will never erase us from the political landscape,” Ms. Touré defiantly told the attendees. “At the same time,” she added, her voice cracking, “I am very scared.”

“他们永远不会把我们从政治版图上抹去,”图雷带着反抗精神对在场者们说。“与此同时,”她声音沙哑地补充道,“我非常害怕。”


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