2025年4月18日
China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and his subordinates are mounting a diplomatic full court press to try to persuade other countries not to cave to pressure from the Trump administration on tariffs, hoping to show that China will not be isolated in the trade war.
中国最高领导人习近平和他的下属们正在展开一场全面外交攻势,试图说服其他国家不要在特朗普政府的关税压力下屈服,希望以此来展示中国在贸易战中不会处于孤立地位。
In recent days, China’s commerce minister has held a video call with the European Union’s top trade official, pushing for closer cooperation. Chinese diplomats have been contacting officials in Tokyo and Seoul. And Mr. Xi landed in Vietnam and Malaysia on state visits this week where he was greeted with carefully choreographed crowds of supporters.
最近几天,中国的商务部长为推动加强双边合作与欧盟最高贸易官员进行了视频通话。中国的外交官一直在与日本和韩国的官员保持联系。习近平本周对越南和马来西亚进行国事访问,并在当地受到了精心安排的支持者们的热烈欢迎。
At stake for Mr. Xi are the fate of the global trading system that propelled China’s rise as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, as well as access to markets for many Chinese exports now that the United States has sought to cut them off with debilitating tariffs.
对习近平来说,这件事关系到曾推动中国崛起为世界制造业强国的全球贸易体系的命运,以及如何为许多中国出口商品找到市场,因为美国已试图通过征收高额关税来切断中国向美国的出口。
The outreach is also a test of China’s status as a global power in the face of what Beijing sees as an effort by Washington to contain and suppress its key rival. China has fought back against the Trump administration with its own eye-watering tariffs on U.S. goods, as well as restrictions on the export of some rare earth minerals and magnets that are vital for assembling cars, missiles and drones.
这种外交攻势也是对中国作为全球大国的地位的考验,在北京看来,华盛顿是在对它的关键对手加以遏制和压制。中国已对特朗普政府进行了反击,对美国商品征收了令人咋舌的关税,并限制了部分稀土矿物和磁体的出口,这些材料对汽车、导弹、无人机等产品的组装至关重要。
To that end, Mr. Xi has tried to assemble a broader coalition to his side — hoping to keep countries from slapping tariffs of their own on Chinese products, or giving in to Washington’s demands to decouple from Chinese manufacturing.
为了成功反击,习近平已试图将一个更广泛的联盟召集到中国这边来,希望各国不对中国产品加征关税,或不理会美国对它们提出的与中国制造业脱钩的要求。
广州的新汽车,摄于本月。
During his travels in Southeast Asia this week, he has depicted China as a leading defender of the global order and indirectly cast the United States as an unreliable player. In Hanoi, he urged Vietnam to join China in opposing “unilateral bullying.” In Kuala Lumpur, he urged Southeast Asian nations to also “reject decoupling, supply disruption,” and “tariff abuse.”
本周访问东南亚期间,习近平称中国是全球秩序的主要捍卫者,并不直接言明地把美国说成是一个不可靠的国家。在河内,他呼吁越南与中国一起反对“单边霸凌”。在吉隆坡,他还敦促东南亚国家抵制“脱钩断链”和“滥征关税”的做法。
“Chinese officials have quietly conveyed that the way the U.S. treats its longstanding allies and partners in Europe is a sign of what’s to come for Southeast Asia,” said Lynn Kuok, the Lee Kuan Yew Chair at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “With Trump’s steep, sweeping tariffs across the region, that message needs no reinforcement.”
“中国官员们已在不声张地传递一个信息:美国对待其欧洲长期盟友和伙伴的方式预示着东南亚的未来,”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会李光耀东南亚研究讲座教授郭晨熹说。“特朗普宣布对东南亚各国征收高额、全面的关税,让中国无需强化这个信息。”
But Mr. Xi’s attempts at presenting China as a paragon of free trade and a champion of the rules-based international order ignores years of Beijing’s own coercive economic behavior and generous subsidies for select industries that have often alienated the country’s trading partners and neighbors. It partly explains why the world’s eroding trust in Washington has not immediately led to newfound alignment with Beijing — that, along with the risk of retribution from Mr. Trump for siding with China.
但是,习近平将中国描绘为自由贸易典范和基于规则的国际秩序捍卫者的尝试,忽视了中国政府自己多年来的强横经济行为和对特定行业的慷慨补贴,这种保护主义做法已经疏远了中国的贸易伙伴和邻国。这在一定程度上解释了为什么世界各国在对美国的信任日益减弱的同时,并没有马上与中国建立新的同盟——另一个原因是与中国结盟存在被特朗普报复的风险。
Already, the European Union, Japan and South Korea have pushed back at attempts by China to suggest that they had agreed with China to jointly fight back against Mr. Trump’s tariffs. European Union officials have instead emphasized their concerns about the dumping of Chinese goods in their market. Last week, Australia rejected a call by China’s ambassador, Xiao Qian, to “join hands” in rebuffing the Trump administration.
欧盟、日本、韩国已对中国的尝试表示了拒绝,中国曾暗示它们已同意与中国一起反击特朗普的关税。欧盟官员反而强调了他们担心中国向欧洲市场倾销商品的问题。澳大利亚上周拒绝了中国大使肖千提出的“携手”抵制特朗普政府的呼吁。
These reactions to China’s entreaties show that “Beijing is not filling the vacuum of trust left by the U.S., just offering immediate relief from the shock therapy the Trump administration has forced upon the world,” said Rorry Daniels, the managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.
对中国恳求的反应显示,“中国没能填补美国留下的信任空白,只是在为特朗普政府强加给世界的休克疗法提供即时缓解,”纽约亚洲协会政策研究所执行主任但若云(Rorry Daniels)说。
Mr. Xi’s long-planned trip to Vietnam this week, followed by a visit to Malaysia before a stop in Cambodia, has taken on more urgency for China now that President Trump is using his 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariff hikes to press countries to negotiate trade deals with the United States. Mr. Trump, too, has shown urgency by inserting himself into trade negotiations on Wednesday with Japanese officials visiting Washington.
习近平本周对越南的访问是很久以前安排的,他随后还访问马来西亚,最后一站是柬埔寨。随着特朗普利用90天的“解放日”关税暂缓期向各国施压,促使它们与美国进行贸易谈判,习近平此行有了更多的紧迫性。特朗普本人周三介入了与来访华盛顿的日本官员的贸易谈判,也体现了这种紧迫性。
Beijing’s fear, analysts say, is that these deals will isolate China by including agreements that choke off Chinese exports. That could be through coordinated tariffs, or a crackdown on Chinese companies transshipping their goods through third countries like Vietnam to obscure their true origin, or by targeting Chinese raw materials in exports headed to the United States.
分析人士称,中国政府担心,各国与美国达成的贸易协议会通过一起限制中国出口的做法来形成对中国的孤立。具体做法可能是协调征收关税,或打击中国企业通过越南等第三国将商品转运到美国以掩盖真实产地,或打击运往美国的产品中的中国原材料。
越南胡志明市的一家服装厂,摄于本月。越南夹在了中国和美国之间。
Vietnam lavished Mr. Xi with the rare honor of being greeted by a Vietnamese president on the airport tarmac when he arrived in the country on Monday. But Hanoi resisted agreeing with Mr. Xi’s boldest comments condemning protectionism, and ultimately signed onto a vague joint statement opposing “hegemonism and power politics” — an accusation that many in Vietnam assign to China during territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
习近平周一抵达越南时,越南国家主席前往机场停机坪迎接,这是越南给予来访者的殊荣。但习近平在谴责保护主义方面最为强势的言论并没有得到越南的呼应,双方最终只是签署了一份措辞模糊的联合声明,其中包括反对“霸权主义和强权政治”,后者是许多越南人在南海领土争端问题上用来描述中国做法的词语。
For Vietnam, the threat of a 46 percent U.S. levy prompted teams of negotiators to head to Washington to make an appeal for lower tariffs. In a concession to Mr. Trump, the Vietnamese government this week promised to crack down on trade fraud — widely seen as a reference to companies shipping Chinese products through Vietnam to evade U.S. tariffs.
就越南而言,美国征收46%关税的威胁已促使该国派谈判代表团队前往华盛顿吁请降低关税。作为对特朗普的让步,越南政府本周承诺打击贸易欺诈——这被广泛认为是指企业通过越南将中国产品转运到美国,以逃避美国的关税。
Still, Mr. Trump kept the pressure on Hanoi, telling reporters on Monday that Mr. Xi’s meeting with Vietnam’s top leader, To Lam, was probably focused on how to “screw” America.
然而特朗普继续对越南施压,他周一对记者说,习近平与越南最高领导人苏林会晤讨论的焦点可能是如何“对付”美国。
“Hanoi is being careful not to signal a tilt too far toward Beijing, especially in areas that could displease the Trump administration,” said Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Ultimately, Hanoi is still hedging between the world’s two great powers. But as the geopolitical climate hardens, the space to do so is rapidly shrinking.”
“越南政府正在小心翼翼地不发出任何过度向中国政府倾斜的信号,尤其是在可能使特朗普政府恼怒的领域,”新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院客座研究员阮克江说。“说到底,越南是在两个世界最大国家之间进行两面下注。但随着地缘政治气候恶化,这样做的空间正在迅速缩小。”
习近平与越南最高领导人苏林周一在河内。越南在习近平的国事访问期间举行了隆重的仪式。
Vietnam risks retaliation from its much bigger neighbor if Beijing determines that Hanoi is trying to curry favor with the Trump administration at China’s expense.
如果中国认为越南正在试图以牺牲中国利益为代价来讨好特朗普政府,越南将面临比其大很多的邻国的报复。
China placed tariffs of up to 100 percent on canola, pork and other foods from Canada last month in a clear warning to countries not to cooperate with Washington on trade.
中国上个月对来自加拿大的油菜籽、猪肉,以及其他食品征收了高达100%的关税,这是明确警告各国不要在贸易问题上与美国合作。
To Beijing, if trading partners “pander to the United States, they will hurt China and at the same time, they will hurt their own country as well,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar.
对中国政府来说,如果中国的贸易伙伴“迎合美国,它们将伤害中国,同时也会给它们自己的国家带来伤害”,驻上海的国际关系学者沈丁立说。
That threat was reinforced on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a blog affiliated with China’s state broadcaster, CCTV. China would not comment on talks between other countries and the United States, the post said. “But if anyone uses China’s interests as a token of allegiance to the United States, China will never agree!”
中国中央电视台下属博客“玉渊谭天”周日再次强调了这一威胁。中国不会对其他国家与美国的谈判发表评论,玉渊谭天上的帖子写道。“但如果谁拿着中国的利益去给美国当投名状,中国绝不答应!”
The warning underscores how Beijing has been both courting and confronting its neighbors as President Trump has been recalibrating Washington’s place in the world. Mr. Xi’s expression of “deep friendship” with Vietnam during his visit came not long after China held live-fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin to reassert its territorial claims in those waters over Hanoi.
这个警告凸显了在特朗普重新调整美国在世界上的地位之际,中国政府一直以来对邻国既讨好、又对抗的做法。习近平在访越时表达了与越南的“深厚友谊”,但中国不久前刚刚在北部湾举行实弹演习,以重申自己对越南也提出了领土主张的水域的主权。
Even if China fails to build a united front against the Trump administration’s tariffs, it would still benefit from making other countries think twice about aligning their trade policies with the United States, said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who formerly worked in the Central Intelligence Agency and studies Chinese politics.
即使未能在对抗特朗普政府的关税上建立统一战线,能让其他国家有所顾虑,不轻易按照美国要求调整本国贸易政策,也将对中国有益,研究中国政治的布鲁金斯学会研究员、曾供职于中央情报局的席恩(Jonathan Czin)说。
“Xi doesn’t necessarily need these countries to choose Beijing,” Mr. Czin said. “He just needs to prevent them from choosing Washington. That is part of why China’s ‘charm offensive’ has so far had such a dearth of charm.”
“习近平并不一定需要这些国家选择北京,”席恩说。“他只需要阻止他们选择华盛顿。这就是为什么中国的‘魅力攻势’到目前为止如此缺乏魅力的原因之一。”