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声援、警惕与担忧:世界各国密切关注特朗普政治前景

HANNAH BEECH, PAUL SONNE

2024年6月3日

周四,特朗普被定罪后在纽约。 Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

The world does not vote in American presidential elections. Nor do its jurors play a part in the American judicial system. Nevertheless, the conviction of Donald J. Trump on all 34 felony counts in a hush-money trial in a New York court on Thursday has again made clear how consequential what happens in the United States is for the rest of the planet.

国际社会不参与美国总统大选的投票。它的陪审员也不参与美国的司法系统。尽管如此,特朗普于周四在纽约一家法院的封口费审判中被判定犯有全部34项重罪,这件事再次清楚地表明,美国发生的事情对世界其他地区的影响有多大。

Many America-watchers are grappling with the same questions posed by people in the United States: Can Mr. Trump still run for president? (Yes.) And if so, will the guilty verdicts cut into the support from his political base? (Unclear.)

许多观察美国的人士正在努力弄清美国人民提出的同样问题:特朗普还能竞选总统吗?(可以。)如果能,有罪判决是否会削减来自他政治基础的支持?(不清楚。)

Foreign observers also began wondering if Mr. Trump, already a volatile force, would become even less likely to stay within the guardrails of normal politics and diplomacy if he won the presidency again in November.

外国观察家们也开始猜测,如果特朗普在11月再次赢得总统大选,本就已经很不稳定的他是否会更不可能遵守正常政治和外交规则。

Mr. Trump’s supporters in anti-immigrant, right-wing nationalist circles abroad quickly jumped to his defense. Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Kremlin-friendly prime minister, called Mr. Trump “a man of honor” in a post on X and said the American people should deliver their own verdict in November.

特朗普在国外的反移民、右翼民族主义圈子中的支持者迅速跳出来为他辩护。对克里姆林宫友好的匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托在X上发帖,称特朗普是“正人君子”,并表示美国人民应该在11月做出自己的裁决。

Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and the leader of the hard-right League party, expressed “solidarity and full support,” and called Mr. Trump a “victim of judicial harassment.”

意大利副总理、强硬右翼联盟党领袖马泰奥·萨尔维尼表示“声援和全力支持”,并称特朗普是“司法骚扰的受害者”。

“This verdict is a disgrace,” Nigel Farage, the pro-Brexit campaigner and Trump supporter, who is honorary president of Reform UK, a small right-wing party in Britain, wrote on social media. “Trump will now win big.”

“这个判决是可耻的,”支持英国脱欧的活动人士、特朗普的支持者、英国右翼小党英国改革党的名誉主席奈杰尔·法拉奇在社交媒体上写道。“特朗普现在会大获全胜。”

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did not immediately respond to the verdict but has seized on the situation more broadly to undermine American influence. Mr. Putin last year called the various proceedings against Mr. Trump political “persecution” and said they had revealed the “rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy.”

俄罗斯总统普京没有立即对这一判决做出回应,而是利用这一局势在更大范围内削弱美国的影响力。普京去年曾将针对特朗普的各种诉讼称为政治“迫害”,并称这些诉讼揭示了“美国政治制度的腐朽,它不能假装教导他人什么是民主”。

His spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, reiterated the point on Friday in response to the verdict, saying it was clear to the entire world that the U.S. authorities were trying to eliminate political rivals “by all possible legal and illegal means.”

他的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周五在对判决做出回应时重申了这一点,声称全世界都清楚,美国政府正试图“通过一切可能的合法和非法手段”来铲除政治对手。

The convictions by a Manhattan jury come as the question of American engagement has become central in several global crises.

在曼哈顿陪审团作出上述判决之际,美国的参与问题已成为几场全球危机的核心。

In Ukraine, the war effort against Russia has been stymied after Republicans in Congress delayed American military aid for months.

在乌克兰,由于国会的共和党人数月来一直拖延美国的军事援助,针对俄罗斯的战争努力因此受阻。

In Europe, leaders reliant on the United States for their defense are jittery about a return to a more acrimonious relationship with Washington and a possible withdrawal of American support for hardening defenses against Russia.

在欧洲,依赖美国防务的领导人担心,与华盛顿的关系可能会重新变得紧张,而且美国还有可能不再支持加强对俄罗斯的防御。

In Asia, where the Biden administration perceives a growing Chinese threat and worries about a possible invasion of Taiwan, American allies are concerned about the sanctity of defense treaties that have long girded the regional security order.

在亚洲,拜登政府认为中国的威胁与日俱增,并担心中国可能入侵台湾,而美国的盟国则担心长期以来支撑地区安全秩序的防务条约是否真的神圣不可侵犯。

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump has said he would encourage Russia to attack any NATO member that doesn’t pay sufficiently for its defense and has questioned whether the United States should defend South Korea, a treaty ally that hosts a large American military presence. He is considering the Ohio senator J.D. Vance, one of Washington’s most vociferous opponents of military aid for Ukraine, as a possible running mate.

在竞选活动中,特朗普曾表示,他将鼓励俄罗斯攻击任何没有为防务支付足够费用的北约成员国,并质疑美国是否应该保卫韩国——一个驻扎着大量美军的条约盟国。他正在考虑将俄亥俄州参议员J·D·万斯作为可能的竞选伙伴,万斯是华盛顿最激烈反对向乌克兰提供军事援助的人之一。

Foreign analysts worry that Mr. Trump’s favored currency, unpredictability, could again shake up the global order.

外国分析人士担心,特朗普最喜欢的招数——不可预测性——可能会再次动摇全球秩序。

Concern about his possible return to the White House is particularly palpable in Germany, the object of Mr. Trump’s ire for much of his first term and the host of more than 35,000 U.S. troops.

在德国,人们对特朗普可能重返白宫的担忧尤为明显,因为德国在特朗普第一任期的大部分时间里都是他恼怒的对象,德国也是35000多名美军的驻扎地。

Andrea Römmele, vice president of the Hertie School, a public policy-focused graduate school in Berlin, said many Germans watching the Trump verdict were relieved to see that even a former president was not above the law in the United States. But she said Germans remained very anxious about a Trump victory.

柏林以公共政策为重点的研究生院赫蒂学院的副院长安德烈娅·罗梅尔表示,许多德国人在观看了特朗普的判决后都松了一口气,因为他们看到,在美国,即使是前总统也不能凌驾于法律之上。但她说,德国人仍然对特朗普获胜的可能性感到非常焦虑。

“I think everyone is much more prepared to think the unthinkable,” she said.

她说:“我认为每个人都做好了更充分的准备,去设想那不可思议的事情。”

Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, whose right-wing domestic opponents accuse him of using the judiciary to settle political scores, hailed the conviction of Mr. Trump in New York as “an American lesson” for Polish politicians.

波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克的国内右翼反对者指责他利用司法机构解决政治恩怨,他称赞特朗普在纽约被定罪是波兰政治人士的“美国教训”。

“The law determines guilt and punishment, regardless of whether the perpetrator is a president or a minister,” Mr. Tusk said in a message posted on X. A veteran centrist, Mr. Tusk took office after an October election that ousted a nationalist government that cultivated close ties with Mr. Trump during and after his time in the White House.

图斯克在X上发布的一条帖子中说:“法律决定罪责和惩罚,无论犯罪者是总统还是部长。”图斯克是一位资深的中间派人士,他是在去年10月的大选后上任的,那次选举推翻了一个民族主义政府,它在特朗普入主白宫期间和之后与特朗普建立了密切的关系。

Still, on Friday, most foreign governments, forced to surf every shift in the American political mood, reacted cautiously.

尽管如此,在周五,大多数外国政府只得观察美国政治情绪的每一次变化,做出了谨慎反应。

“I would like to refrain from commenting on matters related to judicial procedures in other countries,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, said at a news conference in Tokyo on Friday.

日本内阁官房长官林芳正周五在东京举行的新闻发布会上表示:“我不想对其他国家的司法程序发表评论。”

31trump world reaction 02 tvqm master1050拜登总统4月在白宫与日本首相岸田文雄会面。

In Britain, where a national election campaign is underway, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak refused to discuss the Trump case. His Labour Party opponent, Keir Starmer, a former top prosecutor, said he respected the court’s decision and called the situation unprecedented.

在举行全国竞选活动的英国,首相苏纳克拒绝讨论特朗普一案。他的工党对手、前高级检察官基尔·斯塔默表示,他尊重法院的裁决,并称这种情况是史无前例的。

“Ultimately whether he is elected president will be a matter for the American people and obviously, if we’re privileged to come in to serve, we would work with whoever they choose as their president,” Mr. Starmer told BBC Radio Scotland.

“最终,他是否当选总统是美国人民的事,显然,如果我们有幸为公众服务,我们将与他们选择的总统人选合作,”斯塔默这样告诉BBC苏格兰广播。

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, declined to comment on the verdict. She said she hoped whoever was elected president would “be committed to developing healthy and stable China-U. S. relations.”

中国外交部发言人毛宁拒绝对判决发表评论。她说,她希望无论谁当选总统,都能够“致力于维护健康稳定的中美关系”。

The possibility of Mr. Trump’s return to the White House is a source of anxiety for U.S. allies in Asia that rely on Washington for their defense.

特朗普重返白宫的可能性让依赖华盛顿提供防御的美国亚洲盟友感到焦虑。

When Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan made a state visit to Washington in April, President Biden called relations between the countries the most important bilateral alliance in the world. With American concern rising over China’s expanding military footprint, Mr. Biden has strengthened American defense partnerships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and others in Asia.

今年4月,日本首相岸田文雄对华盛顿进行国事访问时,拜登总统称两国关系是世界上最重要的双边联盟。随着美国对中国不断扩大军事足迹日益担忧,拜登加强了美国与日本、韩国、菲律宾和其他亚洲国家的防务伙伴关系。

By contrast, while president, Mr. Trump called for Japan, which hosts more than 50,000 American troops on its soil, to pay $8 billion for the upkeep of American bases there. (It never happened.)

相比之下,特朗普在任期间曾要求有5万多名美国驻军的日本支付80亿美元,以维持美国在日军事基地的运营。(但从未实现。)

Still, the fundamental tension in regional geopolitics — the contest between the United States and China — will continue no matter who wins the American presidential election.

尽管如此,无论谁赢得美国总统大选,区域地缘政治的根本矛盾——美国和中国之间的竞争——仍将继续。

“Beijing has no illusion about Trump or Biden, given their anti-China solid stance,” said Lau Siu-kai, an adviser to the Chinese government on Hong Kong policy. “Beijing is all set for a more intense confrontation with the U.S. over technology, trade and Taiwan.”

“鉴于特朗普和拜登的坚定的反华立场,北京对他们不抱任何幻想,”中国政府香港政策顾问刘兆佳表示。“北京已准备好在技术、贸易和台湾问题上与美国展开更激烈的对抗。”

Officials in China’s embassy in the United States and its consulates around the country are most likely scrambling to assess how the verdict could affect the election, said Willy Lam, an analyst of Chinese politics at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington.

华盛顿詹姆斯顿基金会中国政治分析师林和立表示,中国驻美国大使馆及其在美国各地领事馆的官员很可能正在忙于评估这一判决将如何影响选举。

“The majority of Xi Jinping’s advisers now think a Trump presidency might be worse for U.S.-China relations,” Mr. Lam said of China’s top leader. “If Trump were to win, given the now peculiar circumstances of his victory, he might gravitate towards unpredictable actions to assert his authority.”

“习近平的大多数顾问现在认为,特朗普当选总统可能会对中美关系造成更加不利的影响,”林和立在谈到中国​​最高领导人时说道。“如果特朗普获胜,考虑到目前他获胜的特殊情况,他可能会倾向于采取不可预测的行动来维护自己的权威。”

There is a sense in Asia that the region is perennially overlooked and underappreciated by U.S. presidents, particularly as crises in Europe and the Middle East have monopolized Mr. Biden’s attention. That sentiment was also felt acutely during Mr. Trump’s presidency, and for American partners in Asia it was made worse by his affinity for regional strongmen.

亚洲普遍感觉该地区常年被美国总统忽视和低估,尤其是在欧洲和中东危机占据了拜登注意力的情况下。这种情绪在特朗普担任总统期间也表现得十分强烈,而对于美国在亚洲的合作伙伴来说,特朗普对地区强人的亲近使这种情绪更加严重。

In addition to occasional expressions of admiration for Mr. Putin and Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Mr. Trump invited to the White House a former army chief who led a coup in Thailand and installed himself as prime minister. Mr. Trump drew accolades from Rodrigo Duterte, formerly the president of the Philippines and now under investigation by the International Criminal Court over his deadly war on drugs.

除了偶尔表达对普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩的钦佩之外,特朗普还曾邀请一位曾在泰国发动政变,并让自己成为总理的前军队领导人访问白宫。特朗普还获得了前菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特地的赞誉,后者目前因致命的禁毒战争而受到国际刑事法院的调查。

31trump world reaction 03 tvqm master10502017年,特朗普与菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特地在马尼拉会面。

The Philippines is now led by the son of the longtime dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos, who died in exile in Hawaii. He has reoriented the country away from China back toward the United States.

菲律宾现任领导人已让该国从中国重新转向美国,他是长期独裁者费迪南德·马科斯的儿子,这位独裁者在流亡夏威夷期间去世。

In at least one regard — the prosecution of former leaders — the rest of the world is far ahead of the United States. South Korea, where four former presidents have been convicted of corruption and abuse of power, has made something of a national sport of imprisoning disgraced leaders. The former French presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac were convicted of corruption.

至少在起诉名誉扫地的前领导人这方面,世界其他国家远远领先于美国。韩国已有四位前总统被判犯有腐败和滥用权力罪,该国将监禁名誉扫地的领导人视为一项全国性运动。法国前总统尼古拉·萨科齐和雅克·希拉克都曾被判犯有腐败罪。

Jacob Zuma, the former president of South Africa, has been charged with money laundering, among other crimes. And Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sentenced to years in prison for corruption after leading Brazil. His convictions were eventually annulled. He is again president of the country.

南非前总统雅各布·祖马被指控洗钱等罪名。卢拉在领导巴西后因腐败被判处多年监禁。对他的判决最终被撤销。他后来再次担任该国总统。


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