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中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

强人领袖遇挫,全球选举年政治现状大洗牌?

MARK LANDLER

2024年6月7日

印度总理莫迪周二在新德里向支持者致意。他赢得了连任,但所在党失去了在议会的多数派地位。 Atul Loke for The New York Times

In India, a powerful leader wins another term but sees his party’s majority vanish. In South Africa, the governing party is humbled by voters for the first time since the end of apartheid. In Britain, a populist insurgent barges into an election that is shaping up to be a crushing defeat for the long-ruling Conservatives.

在印度,一位强大的领导人赢得了连任,但他所在政党在议会失去了多数席位。在南非,执政党自种族隔离制度结束以来第一次遭到选民的教训。在英国,一场民粹主义颠覆运动在选举中横冲直撞,而长期执政的保守党眼看要在这场选举中遭遇惨败。

If there is a common thread halfway through this global year of elections, it is a desire by voters to send a strong signal to the powers that be — if not quite a wholesale housecleaning, then a defiant shake-up of the status quo.

在这个全球选举年过半之际,如果说各国选举有什么共同点的话,那就是选民希望向当权者发出强烈信号——即使不是大清洗,至少也要对现状进行大举改革。

Even in Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and the handpicked successor of the president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was elected in a landslide last Sunday, voters were rewarding the forces that had uprooted the country’s entrenched establishment only six years earlier.

连墨西哥的选民都在奖励六年前扳倒该国根深蒂固的建制派的力量,上周日,总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔钦点的继任者、气候科学家克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆以压倒性优势当选。

With a billion-plus people going to the polls in more than 60 countries, some analysts had feared that 2024 would pose a fateful test for democracy — one that it might fail. For years, populist and strongmen leaders have chipped away at democratic institutions, sowing doubts about the legitimacy of elections, while social media has swamped voters with disinformation and conspiracy theories.

随着60多个国家的10多亿人参加投票,一些分析人士担心,2024年将对民主制度构成致命考验——民主可能会败下阵来。多年来,民粹主义和强人领导人削弱了民主制度,播下了对选举合法性的怀疑,而社交媒体则令选民被虚假信息和阴谋论淹没。

In some of the biggest, most fragile democracies, leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey had been regarded as close to invincible, using appeals to nationalism or sectarianism to mobilize supporters and bending institutions to suit their purposes.

在一些最大、最脆弱的民主国家,像印度总理莫迪和土耳其总统埃尔多安这样的领导人曾被视为近乎不可战胜,他们利用民族主义或宗派主义来动员支持者,并使制度屈从于自己的目的。

06global elections 01 mztb master1050土耳其总统埃尔多安曾被认为在政治上几乎不可战胜,但随着通胀高企、失业率居高不下和令人失望的经济增长,他的支持率也在下降。

Yet now, Mr. Modi and Mr. Erdogan have both had their wings clipped. Soaring inflation, chronic unemployment and uneven economic growth have widened inequality in India, Turkey and elsewhere, frustrating voters who have shown a willingness to buck the establishment.

然而现在,莫迪和埃尔多安双双折翼。通胀飙升、长期失业和不平衡的经济增长加剧了印度、土耳其和其他国家的不平等,引起那些不介意跟建制派翻脸的选民的不满。

“We do have electoral systems that are producing outcomes the governing parties didn’t want,” said Ben Ansell, a professor of comparative democratic institutions at the University of Oxford. “They’ve all been destabilized by a tricky economic environment, and behaving like strongmen hasn’t saved them.”

“我们的确有一些选举体制产生了执政党不想要的结果,”牛津大学比较民主制度教授本·安塞尔说。“棘手的经济环境破坏了稳定局面,强人形象并没有拯救他们。”

Mr. Modi and Mr. Erdogan remain in power, each now in his third term. But Mr. Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., lost dozens of seats and will have to govern in a coalition with two secular parties. Turkey’s opposition struck a blow against Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party in April, winning a string of local elections and solidifying its control of important cities like Istanbul and the capital, Ankara.

目前,莫迪和埃尔多安都已进入第三任期。但莫迪的印度教民族主义政党——印度人民党失去了数十个席位,将不得不与两个世俗政党联合执政。土耳其的反对力量于4月对埃尔多安的正义与发展党发动了打击,赢得了一系列地方选举,并巩固了对伊斯坦布尔、首都安卡拉等重要城市的控制。

“In a lot of countries where there’s been talk of backsliding, that’s where we’ve seen a bounce back,” Professor Ansell said. “For Modi and Erdogan, taking the sheen off their infallibility was very important.”

“在许多一直在谈论倒退的国家,我们看到了反弹,”安塞尔教授说。“对于莫迪和埃尔多安来说,让他们永远正确的光辉褪去非常重要。“

With so many elections in so many countries, it is dangerous to generalize. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia rolled up 88 percent of the vote in a landslide re-election victory in March that spoke less to Russian public sentiment and more to the ability of an autocrat, facing no meaningful opposition, to stage-manage a show of support for his war in Ukraine.

在许多国家举行了许多选举的情况下,一概而论是危险的。今年3月,俄罗斯总统普京以压倒性优势赢得连任,得票率高达88%,这与其说代表了俄罗斯公众的情绪,不如说是一个独裁者在没有任何实质性反对派的情况下,有能力精心策划一场支持他在乌克兰发动的战争的表演。

06global elections 02 mztb master1050俄罗斯总统普京上月在莫斯科。他通过走过场的总统选举赢得了连任,没有人对他构成真正的威胁。

In Europe, far-right parties are expected to perform well in European Parliament elections, which began on Thursday. Analysts said they did not believe this would jeopardize the political center that has governed Europe in the post-World War II era. And Poland provided a source of reassurance last fall, when voters pushed out its nationalist Law and Justice Party in favor of a more liberal opposition.

在欧洲,极右翼政党有望在周四开始的欧洲议会选举中取得不错的成绩。分析人士表示,他们认为这并不会危及“二战”后一直治理欧洲的政治中心。去年秋天,波兰给人们提供了一种安慰,选民推翻了民族主义政党——法律与公正党,转而支持有更多自由主义倾向的反对派。

Still, the success of far-right figures like Giorgia Meloni, the prime minister of Italy, attests to the enduring appeal of populism.

尽管如此,意大利总理梅洛尼等极右翼人物的成功证明了民粹主义的持久吸引力。

“Populists and right-wingers will continue to make gains and strike fear into the European political establishment,” the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said in its analysis of the top risks of 2024.

“民粹主义者和右翼分子将继续得手,并让欧洲的政治建制派感到恐惧,”政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团在分析2024年最大风险时表示。

Britain’s general election was shaken up on Monday when Nigel Farage, a populist politician, pro-Brexit campaigner and ally of former President Donald J. Trump, announced he would run for a seat in Parliament under the banner of his Reform U.K. party, which has a strident anti-immigration message.

周一,民粹主义政客、支持英国脱欧的活动人士、前总统特朗普的盟友奈杰尔·法拉奇宣布,他将以他的改革党名义竞选议院席位,该党表达了强烈的反移民态度。

That will add to the headache for the Conservative Party, which has lagged the opposition Labour Party by double digits in polls for nearly 18 months. Reform, which is fielding candidates across the country, could siphon off Conservative votes among those who blame the party for a weak economy and rising immigration numbers since Britain left the European Union in 2020.

这将给保守党带来更多麻烦,该党在最近18个月的民调中均落后于反对党工党两位数。改革党在全国范围内提名候选人,可能会分流保守党的选票,这部分选民认为,英国于2020年脱欧后经济不景气、移民增多,该党难辞其咎。

Some critics argue that the Conservative Party’s problems stem from its free-market policies, which they say have disillusioned voters in disadvantaged parts of Britain and set it apart from right-wing parties in Europe or Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again movement in the United States.

一些批评人士认为,保守党的问题源于其自由市场政策,他们说,这些政策令英国贫困地区的选民感到失望,也是让保守党有别于欧洲的右翼政党或者特朗普在美国的“让美国恢复伟大荣光”运动的标识。

06global elections 03 mztb master1050英国首相苏纳克6月1日在英格兰布莱斯向当地保守党候选人致意。经过14年的执政,他的保守党也受到在全球蔓延的反建制政治潮流的冲击。

More fundamentally, though, the Conservatives have been in power for 14 years, and they face the same pent-up dissatisfaction with the status quo that fueled the recent elections in India, South Africa and Turkey.

但从根本上说,保守党已经执政14年,他们面临着对现状压抑已久的不满情绪,而印度、南非和土耳其最近的选举也是如此。

In some countries, the urge to break with the past has led voters to make unorthodox choices: Javier Milei, a flamboyant libertarian economist, swept to power in Argentina last November with a promise to close its central bank and wage an all-out assault on what he described as a corrupt political “caste.”

在一些国家,与过去决裂的冲动导致选民做出了非正统的选择:去年11月,高调的自由意志主义经济学家哈维尔·米莱在阿根廷上台,他承诺关闭央行,并对他所称的腐败的政治“种姓”阶层发动全面打击。

Some analysts argue that similarly disruptive forces are driving the presidential race in the United States, where a comparatively healthy economy and the advantages of incumbency have not spared President Biden, who faces a neck-and-neck challenge from Mr. Trump even after the former president was convicted of multiple felonies.

一些分析人士认为,类似的破坏性力量也在推动着美国的总统大选。在美国,相对健康的经济和现任总统的优势并没有让拜登总统得以幸免,即使在前总统被判多项重罪之后,他仍面临着特朗普的激烈竞争。

“It’s not about left versus right, it’s about the status quo versus change,” said Frank Luntz, an American political strategist who has lived and worked in Britain. “You can’t buy a house in the U.K., the N.H.S. doesn’t work,” he said, referring to the National Health Service. “In the United States, you can’t afford housing or health care. It’s about broken promises, year after year after year.”

“问题不在于是左还是右,而是维持现状与变革的问题,”曾在英国生活和工作的美国政治策略师弗兰克·伦茨说。“在英国,你买不了房,国民医疗体系又不行,”他说,“在美国,你买不起房,也负担不起医疗费用。问题在于承诺一再不能兑现。”

That sense of betrayal is even more acute in countries like South Africa, where the African National Congress, or A.N.C., has governed since the start of democracy there in 1994, piling up majorities even as the economy and social infrastructure crumbled. Last week, voters finally rebelled, driving down the A.N.C.’s vote share to 40 percent, from 58 percent in the last national election in 2019.

在南非这样的国家,这种被背叛的感觉更为强烈。自1994年实行民主制度以来,南非一直由非洲人国民大会执政,在经济和社会基础设施崩溃的情况下仍赢得了多数席位。上周,选民们终于开始反抗,该党的得票率从2019年上次全国大选的58%降至40%。

06global elections 04 mztb master1050在非国大党自结束种族隔离以来首次没能拿到过半票数后,南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨发表讲话。

Among their biggest complaints is the lack of job opportunities: South Africa’s unemployment rate — at 42 percent, including those who have stopped looking for work — is one of the highest in the world. Stagnation has widened the country’s already profound inequality.

他们最大的抱怨是缺乏工作机会:南非是世界上失业率最高的国家之一,达到42%,其中包括停止找工作的人。经济停滞加剧了这个国家本已严重的不平等。

South Africans flock to cities looking for work. But many end up in decrepit buildings and slapdash shack communities, often without running water or sanitary toilets. Regular power outages leave streets dark and residents of many communities vulnerable to crime. South Africa’s murder rate is six and a half times as high as that of the United States and 45 times as high as Germany’s.

南非人涌向城市寻找工作。但许多人最终住进了破旧的房屋和简陋的棚户区,往往没有自来水和卫生厕所。经常停电,街道一片黑暗,许多社区的居民易受犯罪的侵害。南非的谋杀率是美国的6.5倍,是德国的45倍。

Jacob Zuma, the scandal-scarred former president, has benefited from this misery, helping start a new party, umKhonto weSizwe, or M.K., which won nearly 15 percent of the vote, mostly at the expense of his former party, the A.N.C.

丑闻缠身的前总统雅各布·祖马从这种苦难中获益,他参与创立的新政党“民族之矛”赢得了近15%的选票,其中大部分原本会投给他的前政党非国大。

Mr. Zuma attracts a feverish following among disillusioned A.N.C. supporters, who accuse the party of selling out to wealthy white businesspeople and not moving aggressively enough to redistribute wealth to the Black majority after apartheid.

祖马吸引了大批对非国大失望的支持者,他们指责非国大把自己出卖给富有的白人商人,在种族隔离后没有采取足够积极的行动将财富重新分配给占多数的黑人。

India’s election was a comparable anti-incumbent revolt, even if Mr. Modi’s B.J.P. is still the largest party in Parliament by a wide margin. The party’s campaign spending was at least 20 times as much as that of its main opposition, the Congress Party, which had its bank accounts frozen by the government in a tax dispute on the eve of the election. The country’s news outlets have been largely bought off or bullied into silence.

印度的选举也很类似,是对现任者的反抗,尽管莫迪的人民党仍然是议会中最大的政党,优势很大。该党的竞选支出至少是其主要反对党国大党的20倍。在选举前夕,国大党的银行账户因税收纠纷被政府冻结。该国的新闻媒体大多被收买或在胁迫下保持沉默。

06global elections 05 mztb master1050印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪和他的人民党在最近的选举中表现不佳,印度反对党国大党的支持者在庆祝。

And yet, the results showed Mr. Modi, 73, losing his majority for the first time since he took office in 2014. Analysts said that reflected widespread dissatisfaction with how the fruits of India’s economy have been shared. While India’s steady growth has made it the envy of its neighbors — and created a conspicuous billionaire class — those riches have not flowed to the hundreds of millions of India’s poor.

然而,选举结果显示,73岁的莫迪自2014年上任以来首次失去多数席位。分析人士说,这反映了人们对印度经济成果分配方式的普遍不满。虽然印度的稳定增长使其邻国羡慕不已,并创造了一个引人注目的亿万富翁阶层,但这些财富并没有惠及数亿印度穷人。

The government has handed out free rations of wheat, grain and cooking gas. It offers home water connections, subsidizes building supplies and gives farmers cash. But it has not tackled India’s inflation or unemployment, leaving hundreds of millions of people, especially women, chronically out of work.

政府免费发放小麦、谷物和烹饪燃气。它提供家庭供水,补贴建筑材料,并向农民提供现金。但它并没有解决印度的通货膨胀和失业问题,已有数亿人长期失业,尤其是女性。

There is also some evidence that Mr. Modi’s appeals to Hindu nationalism were not as potent as in previous elections. The B.J.P.’s candidate did not even win the constituency that is home to the lavish Ram temple, built on grounds disputed by Hindus and Muslims. Mr. Modi inaugurated the temple just before the campaign started, hoping it would galvanize his Hindu political base.

还有一些证据表明,莫迪对印度教民族主义的呼吁不像在以前的选举中那般有力。印度人民党的候选人甚至没有赢得拥有华美的拉姆神庙的选区,这座神庙建在印度教徒和穆斯林有争议的土地上。莫迪在竞选开始前为这座寺庙举行了落成典礼,希望此举能激励他的印度教徒票仓。

The economy figured into Mexico’s election as well, but in a very different way. While overall growth was disappointing — averaging only 1 percent a year during Mr. López Obrador’s term — the government doubled the minimum wage and strengthened the peso, lifting millions of Mexicans out of poverty.

墨西哥的选举也同经济有关,但其方式截然不同。虽然整体经济增长令人失望——在洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔任期内,平均每年只有1%——但政府将最低工资提高了一倍,并让比索升值,使数以百万计的墨西哥人摆脱了贫困。

06global elections mlwg master1050克劳迪娅·谢恩鲍姆本周赢得压倒性胜利,将接替现任总统安德烈·曼努埃尔·洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔,并承诺继续推行他的反建制政策。

“People vote with their wallets, and it’s very obvious there’s more money in the wallets of almost everybody in Mexico,” said Diego Casteñeda Garza, a Mexican economist and historian at Uppsala University in Sweden.

“人们用钱包投票,很明显,几乎所有墨西哥人的钱包里都有了更多的钱,”瑞典乌普萨拉大学的墨西哥经济学家和历史学家迭戈·卡斯特尼达·加尔萨说。

Still, analysts said, there was also a desire among voters to cement the change that Mr. López Obrador, a charismatic outsider, symbolized when he came to power in 2018. Even as Ms. Sheinbaum, 61, vowed to continue her mentor’s policies, she cast herself — Mexico’s first female and Jewish president — as a change agent.

不过,分析人士表示,选民也希望巩固洛佩兹·奥夫拉多尔这个魅力十足的局外人在2018年上台时所象征的变革。尽管61岁的谢恩鲍姆发誓要延续她导师的政策,她还是把自己——墨西哥第一位女性和犹太裔总统——塑造成了一个变革的推动者。

For Jacqueline González, 33, who works at a cargo transportation company and viewed Mexico’s previous governments as corrupt, that made voting for Ms. Sheinbaum an easy decision.

33岁的杰奎琳·冈萨雷斯在一家货运公司工作,她认为墨西哥前几届政府都很腐败,这让她很容易做出决定要投票给谢恩鲍姆。

“With Obrador we have already seen, although some people don’t want to admit it, some change,” Ms. González said. “Let’s hope it continues with Sheinbaum.”

“通过奥夫拉多尔,我们看到了一些变化,尽管有些人不愿承认,”冈萨雷斯说。“但愿在谢恩鲍姆这里能继续下去。”

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