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拜登辩论表现不佳引发美国盟友焦虑

STEVEN ERLANGER, MOTOKO RICH

2024年7月1日

拜登总统在辩论中的疲弱表现,让欧洲、亚洲及其他地区的分析人士和官员担心特朗普会重新执政。 Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Amid a faltering performance by President Biden in the presidential debate Thursday night, former President Donald J. Trump caused anxiety among America’s allies with a simple shrug.

拜登总统在周四晚上的总统辩论中表现不佳,而前总统特朗普只是耸了耸肩,就引起了美国盟友的焦虑。

Mr. Trump has regularly disparaged NATO and even threatened to withdraw the United States from it, and during the debate, he did nothing to assuage European concerns about his antipathy toward the military alliance.

特朗普经常贬低北约,甚至威胁要让美国退出北约,他在辩论中说的话无助于缓解欧洲人对他反感该军事联盟的担忧。

Asked by Mr. Biden if he would pull out of NATO, Mr. Trump did not answer but shrugged.

拜登问他是否会退出北约,特朗普没有回答,只是耸了耸肩。

“I was very worried prior to this debate and I’m even more worried now,” said Jana Puglierin, director of the German office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Trump may or may not want to leave NATO officially, but he has every means to undermine NATO.”

“在这场辩论之前我就非常担心,现在我更担心了,”欧洲外交关系委员会德国办公室主任贾娜·普格利林说。“特朗普可能想正式脱离北约,也可能不想,但他拥有一切破坏北约的手段。”

At the heart of NATO is Article Five of its charter, committing each member country to the defense of all the others. “Deterrence is all about credibility, and deep down, Article Five, has always been what you make of it,” Ms. Puglierin said. “So it depends on the U.S. president making it a credible threat.”

北约的核心是其宪章的第五条,即每个成员国都有义务保护所有其他成员国。“威慑的关键在于可信度,而从根本上说,第五条一直取决于你对它怎么理解,”普格利林说。“所以,这取决于美国总统是否把它作为一种可信的威慑。”

Given Mr. Trump’s skepticism about alliances, European nations that rely on the promise of American protection, she said, are worried he might try to forge bilateral relationships with Europe “and make them transactional.”

她说,鉴于特朗普对联盟持怀疑态度,那些依赖美国保护承诺的欧洲国家担心,他可能会试图与欧洲建立双边关系,“使之成为一种生意上的往来。”

Camille Grand, a former assistant secretary general of NATO, said that in a second term, Mr. Trump would be surrounded by people “who want to turn his instincts into policy rather than saying, ‘This is a bad idea, Mr. President.’”

北约前助理秘书长卡米尔·格兰德表示,如果有第二个任期,聚集到他身边的“会是那种想把他的直觉转化为政策的人,而不是说,‘总统先生,这是个坏主意’”。

“But the worst thing is his unpredictability, and Europe is at war,” he added..In peacetime there is always another summit or a chance to build relationships, he said. “But in a war, if he suddenly suggests a peace settlement overnight or something that makes the U.S. security guarantee hollow, that’s much more difficult to manage,” Mr. Grand said.

“但是,最糟糕的是他的不可预测性,而欧洲正处于战争状态,”他还说。“在和平时期,总会有另一次峰会或建立关系的机会,”格兰德说。“但在一场战争中,如果他突然在一夜之间提出和平解决方案,或者提出一些让美国的安全保证变得空洞的东西,那就更难处理了。”

Mr. Trump boasted on Thursday night that he had forced European countries to increase their military spending, though it has grown more under Mr. Biden. Already, Mr. Grand said, the Europeans understand that they have to do more in their own defense, and in fact are spending $130 billion more every year than they did in 2014, he said.

特朗普周四晚间吹嘘自己迫使欧洲国家增加了军费开支,尽管在拜登领导下欧洲军费开支增加得更多。格兰德说,欧洲人已经明白,他们必须在自己的防务方面做得更多,事实上,他们每年的防务支出比2014年增加了1300亿美元。

But whoever is president, “we need to make sure we can defend Europe with less America.”

但无论谁当选总统,“我们都需要确保我们能在美国参与更少的情况下保卫欧洲。”

NATO supporters were hardly the only international observers unnerved by the debate. The back-and-forth between the blustering Mr. Trump and the faltering Mr. Biden set analysts fretting — and not just about who might win the election in November.

北约的支持者并不是唯一对这场辩论感到不安的国际观察者。气势汹汹的特朗普步履蹒跚的拜登之间的交锋让分析人士感到不安——而且不仅仅是关于谁有可能在11月的选举中获胜。

Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, wrote on X, “This election is doing more to discredit American democracy than Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping could ever hope to,” referring to the leaders of Russia and China, America’s most powerful rivals.

华盛顿约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的历史学家谢尔盖·拉德琴科在X上写道:“这次选举对美国民主声誉的损害远超普京和习近平所能达到的程度。”他指的是美国最大的对手俄罗斯和中国的领导人。

“I am worried about the image projected to the outside world,” he continued. “It is not an image of leadership. It is an image of terminal decline.”

“我担心外界对我们的印象,”他继续写道。“这不是领导者的形象。这是一幅走向衰落的画面。”

Whoever becomes president, the United States faces major global challenges — in Asia, from a rising China and a nuclear North Korea recently bolstered by Mr. Putin; in Europe from Russia’s war against Ukraine; and in the Middle East, where Israel’s war against Hamas threatens to spread to southern Lebanon and even Iran.

无论谁当上总统,美国都面临着重大的全球性挑战——在亚洲,来自崛起的中国,以及最近得到普京支持的拥核朝鲜;在欧洲,来自俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争;在中东,以色列对哈马斯的战争有可能蔓延到黎巴嫩南部甚至伊朗。

There was little of substance on foreign policy in the noisy debate. Mr. Trump continued to insist without explanation that he could have prevented Mr. Putin from invading Ukraine, or Hamas from invading Israel, and that he could bring a quick end to both conflicts.

在这场喧闹的辩论中,几乎没有关于外交政策的实质性内容。特朗普没有做出解释就坚称自己本可阻止普京入侵乌克兰,或阻止哈马斯入侵以色列,以及他本可迅速结束这两场冲突。

Mr. Biden cited his efforts to bring allies together to aid Ukraine and confront Russia. “I’ve got 50 other nations around the world to support Ukraine, including Japan and South Korea,” he said.

拜登提到了他联合盟友援助乌克兰和对抗俄罗斯的努力。“我让世界其他50个国家支持乌克兰,包括日本和韩国,”他说。

28debate allies 05 jvtq master1050拜登离开辩论舞台。无论谁成为总统,美国都面临着重大的全球性挑战。

For some, the debate made a Trump presidency, already considered a strong possibility, seem like a probability, said François Heisbourg, a French analyst. “So on all the issues, the debate is a confirmation of European worries, and some of it has already been integrated into people’s thinking.”

法国分析人士弗朗索瓦·埃斯堡说,一些人认为,特朗普本来就很有可能成为总统,这场辩论他的机会变得更大了。“因此,在所有问题上,这场辩论证实了欧洲的担忧,其中一些担忧已经融入了人们的思维。”

“People hear Trump saying he wants to cut back aid to Ukraine, so this will move to the center of the debate,” he said, along with Mr. Trump’s stated fondness for Mr. Putin as a strong leader.

“人们听到特朗普说他想削减对乌克兰的援助,所以这将成为辩论的中心,”他说,此外,特朗普还表示喜欢普京这个铁腕领导人。

On Israel and Gaza, however, “I’m not sure it will make much of a difference,” Mr. Heisbourg said. “You can’t move the embassy to Jerusalem twice.”

然而,在以色列和加沙问题上,“我不确定这会带来多大的不同,”埃斯堡说。“你不能把大使馆搬到耶路撒冷两次。”

Added to existing worries about the unpredictable Mr. Trump, which the debate only confirmed, is fresh anxiety about Mr. Biden’s capacity to govern. One of the harshest assessments came from Radoslaw Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister. In a social media post, he compared Mr. Biden to Marcus Aurelius, the Roman emperor who “screwed up his succession by passing the baton to his feckless son Commodus, whose disastrous rule started Rome’s decline.”

除了担心特朗普的难以预测(辩论愈发证实了这一点),人们还对拜登的执政能力产生了新的担忧。波兰外交部长拉多斯瓦夫·西科尔斯基的评价最为严厉。他在社交媒体上发帖,将拜登与罗马皇帝马可·奥勒留相提并论,他写道,奥勒留“把接力棒交给了无能的儿子康茂德,搞砸了自己的权力交接,康茂德的灾难性统治开启了罗马的衰落”。

“It’s important to manage one’s ride into the sunset,” Mr. Sikorski added.

“安排好暮年的最后一段工作,这非常重要,”西科尔斯基写道。

28debate allies 03 jvtq master1050在整个亚洲,最紧迫的担忧之一是,如果特朗普当选,他可能在多大程度上加剧与中国之间不断扩展的紧张关系。

In Ukraine, the clamor about the debate reverberated on Friday.

在乌克兰,关于这场辩论的喧嚣在周五回荡。

Referring to Mr. Biden, Bogdan Butkevych, a popular radio host, wrote on social media, “His main task was to convince the voters of his energy and readiness to rule.” But, he added, “He wasn’t able to do it. Accordingly, the chance of his replacement by another candidate from the Democrats increases.”

关于拜登,颇受欢迎的电台主持人博格丹·布特科维奇在社交媒体上这样写道:“他的主要任务是让选民相信他很有活力,并为执政做好了准备。”但是,布特科维奇写道,“他没能做到这一点。因此,另一位民主党候选人取代他的可能性增加了。”

Some took a measure of solace in Mr. Trump’s saying that he did not find it acceptable for the Kremlin to keep occupied lands. The Kyiv Independent, a Ukrainian news outlet, ran a headline that read, “Trump rejects Putin’s peace terms while Biden unnerves Democrats.”

特朗普表示,他认为克里姆林宫保留被占领土是不可接受的,一些人对此感到欣慰。乌克兰新闻媒体《基辅独立报》的标题是“特朗普拒绝普京的和平条件,拜登则令民主党人感到不安”。

Russian media portrayed the debate as a sign of American weakness and disarray. The result “is good for us,” Dmitri Novikov, a Russian lawmaker, said on a talk show on state television on Friday. “Destabilization inside an adversary is always a good thing.”

俄罗斯媒体将这场辩论描述为美国软弱和混乱的标志。俄罗斯议员德米特里·诺维科夫周五在官方电视台的脱口秀节目中说,这个结果“对我们有利”。“对手内部的不稳定总是一件好事。”

In Asia, the debate resurfaced serious questions about how U.S. politics might affect stability. Mr. Trump’s term deeply rattled alliances in the region, and nations hoping to see the United States balance China’s influence and undermine North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have spent the past four years trying to rebuild ties with Washington.

在亚洲,有关美国政治将如何影响稳定的严肃问题再次浮出水面。特朗普的任期曾经深深震撼该地区的联盟,过去四年里,希望看到美国制衡中国影响力、削弱朝鲜核野心的国家一直在努力重建与华盛顿的关系。

“It was clearly a Trump win and a nail in the coffin for the Biden campaign,” said Lee Byong-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul.

“这显然是特朗普的胜利,也为拜登的竞选活动雪上加霜,”首尔庆南大学远东研究所教授李炳哲(音)说。

“We must now brace ourselves for a second Trump administration,” he added.

“我们现在必须为特朗普的第二届政府做好准备,”他还说。

In Japan, a major American ally in Asia, officials have almost always been assiduous about declaring that they are happy working with whomever the United States elects. But Mr. Trump’s comments during the debate that he does not want to spend money defending allies are likely to revive anxieties that he treats international relationships as transactional rather than enduring.

在美国在亚洲的主要盟友日本,官员们几乎总是不遗余力地宣称,他们乐于同美国选出的任何领导人合作。但特朗普在辩论中表示,他不想花钱保卫盟友,这可能会令人们再度担心他将国际关系视为交易,而不是持久的关系。

“My guess is that the Japanese policymakers are thinking, ‘OK, it’s going to be Trump quite likely, so we have to cement institutional ties as much as possible so he can’t undo them,’” said Koichi Nakano, a political scientist at Sophia University in Tokyo. “That is like tying yourself to a mast that may be sinking very soon, so it’s a false illusion of security.”

“我猜日本的政策制定者在想,‘好吧,很有可能是特朗普,所以我们必须尽可能地巩固制度上的联系,这样他就无法破坏它们,’”东京上智大学政治学家中野晃一说。“这就像把自己绑在可能很快就会沉没的桅杆上,所以,这是一种虚假的安全错觉。”

28debate allies 04 jvtq master1050在一场充满人身攻击的总统辩论之后,亚洲的一些分析人士对美国政治话语的现状感到担忧。

India has worked in recent years to overcome a long history of mistrust, expanding military and trade ties with Washington. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed warm relations with Mr. Trump during his presidency, the Indian establishment has seen in Mr. Biden a steady hand who understands how alliances work and how to contain geopolitical risk.

近年来,印度一直在努力克服长期以来的不信任,扩大与华盛顿的军事和贸易关系。虽然在特朗普担任总统期间,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与其关系融洽,但印度建制派认为拜登有着稳健的一面,他知道联盟如何运作,也知道如何遏制地缘政治风险。

Dr. Tara Kartha, a former senior official in the National Security Council of India, noted that Mr. Trump is unpredictable and could shift positions — like changing his current hard-line approach to China if Beijing offers him better terms on trade. That uncertainty makes calculations difficult for India, which shares a border with China and a long rivalry with Beijing.

印度国家安全委员会前高级官员塔拉·卡塔指出,特朗普是不可预测的,可能会改变立场——比如,如果北京向他提供更好的贸易条件,他可能会改变目前对中国的强硬态度。这种不确定性使得与中国接壤并与北京长期竞争的印度很难慎重评估事态。

“We are now hedging with China,” she said. “Because you are not really sure what’s going to happen to the U.S.”

“我们正在回避与中国正面冲突,”她表示。“因为你不确定美国会发生什么。”

In China, the presidential debate was a top trending topic on the social media platform Weibo. Official Chinese media outlets largely played it straight, reporting each candidates’ remarks — and their lack of a handshake — without adding much commentary.

在中国,总统辩论成为社交媒体平台微博上的热门话题。中国官方媒体大多直截了当地报道两位候选人的发言——以及他们没有握手——没有做出太多评论。

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said that the debate had only reinforced something the Chinese government had long thought: No matter who the next president is, U.S. policy toward China is only likely to harden.

上海国际关系学者沈丁立说,这场辩论只是强化了中国政府长期以来的想法:无论下一任总统是谁,美国的对华政策只会变得更加强硬。

What was clear after Thursday’s debate was that few Asian analysts felt optimistic about the American electoral options.

在周四的辩论之后,很明显,没有几个亚洲分析人士对美国的总统人选感到乐观。

“Where are the good ones? Where are the brave ones?” said Kasit Piromya, who has served as Thailand’s foreign minister and its ambassador in Washington. He added that Southeast Asian countries must have a foreign policy vision of their own.

“好人在哪里?勇敢的人在哪里?”曾任泰国外交部长和驻华盛顿大使的卡西·皮罗米亚说。他还说,东南亚国家必须有自己的外交政策愿景。

“Why should I wait for Trump to be bad?” he said.

“我为什么要等着特朗普来做坏人?”他说。

Damien Cave、黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)、Choe Sang-Hun、王月眉(Vivian Wang)、Camille Elemia、Mujib Mashal、Ségolène Le Stradic、Marc Santora和Oleg Matsnev对本文有报道贡献。

Steven Erlanger是时报欧洲首席外交记者,常驻柏林。他此前曾在布鲁塞尔、伦敦、巴黎、耶路撒冷、柏林、布拉格、贝尔格莱格、华盛顿、莫斯科和曼谷等地进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。

Motoko Rich是驻东京记者,领导时报对日本新闻的报道。点击查看更多关于她的信息。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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