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暴力事件激增,巴基斯坦中资项目面临安全挑战

ZIA ur-REHMAN, CHRISTINA GOLDBAUM

2024年7月11日

工作人员搬运一名遇难者的遗体。今年3月,巴基斯坦比舍姆发生了一起造成中国工人死亡的自杀式爆炸事件。 EPA, via Shutterstock

In a busy port city along Pakistan’s southwestern coast, a newly built security barrier and hundreds of new checkpoints safeguard Chinese workers.

在巴基斯坦西南海岸一个繁忙的港口城市,新建的安全屏障和数百个新检查站为中国工人提供保护。

Farther down the Arabian Sea coast, in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, officials added hundreds of police officers to a special unit charged with protecting Chinese-funded development projects. And in the capital, Islamabad, officials created a new police force specifically to protect Chinese nationals.

在南临阿拉伯海的巴基斯坦最大城市卡拉奇,官员们为一个负责保护中国资助的开发项目的特种部队增加了数百名人员。在首都伊斯兰堡,官员们设立了一支专门保护中国公民的新警队。

Across Pakistan, authorities are hurrying to bolster security for Chinese workers after a surge in militant violence targeting Chinese-funded megaprojects. The attacks have threatened infrastructure, energy and trade projects that have kept Pakistan’s economy afloat through a dire economic crisis.

巴基斯坦各地针对中国资助的大型项目的武装暴力事件激增后,当局正在匆忙加强对中国工人的安全保护。袭击事件已威胁到让处于严重危机中的巴基斯坦经济得以维持的基础设施、能源和贸易项目。

That investment in Pakistan, which began in 2015 as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, involves around $60 billion of planned projects. Tens of thousands of Chinese workers are thought to be in Pakistan, though estimates vary widely. Chinese investment has proved critical since support from the United States tapered off after the war in neighboring Afghanistan ended in 2021.

对这些巴基斯坦项目的投资始于2015年,是中国“一带一路”倡议的一部分,项目总额涉及约600亿美元。据说目前在巴基斯坦有数万名中国工人,不过估算数字各不相同。中国的投资对巴基斯坦至关重要,因为自美国2021年从邻国阿富汗撤军以来,美国对巴基斯坦的援助已逐渐减少。

The Chinese-funded projects struggled with security challenges from the start. But over the past three years, as militant groups have resurged across Pakistan and the number of terrorist attacks has soared, Chinese investments — or even just projects perceived to have some connection to China — have become increasingly vulnerable.

中国资助的项目从一开始就面临着安全挑战。但在过去三年里,随着激进组织在巴基斯坦各地复苏,恐怖袭击数量激增,中国投资的项目——甚至仅仅是被认为与中国有某种联系的项目——已变得越来越易受袭击。

A series of attacks this spring highlighted that threat. In late March, armed fighters targeted the Chinese-built and operated port in Gwadar along the southwestern coast of the Arabian Sea, killing two Pakistani security officers. Days later, militants attacked the country’s second-largest air base, citing opposition to Chinese investment to extract the region’s resources.

今年春天发生的一系列袭击事件凸显了这一威胁。3月底,武装分子袭击了阿拉伯海西南海岸中国建造和运营的瓜达尔港,造成两名巴基斯坦保安警察死亡。几天后,武装分子以反对中国投资开采当地资源为由,袭击了该国第二大空军基地。

00pakistan china 4 vfbm master1050瓜达尔港是巴基斯坦最重要的中资项目之一。

The day after the air base attack, five Chinese workers died after a suicide bomber rammed an explosive-laden truck into their vehicle. The next month, five Japanese workers were the object of a suicide attack in Karachi after being mistaken for Chinese workers, according to the police. (The Japanese escaped unharmed, but a bystander, who was not a foreigner, was killed.)

空军基地袭击事件发生后的第二天,一名自杀式炸弹袭击者驾驶一辆装满炸药的卡车撞击一五名中国工人乘坐的车辆,导致五人死亡。次月,五名日本工人在卡拉奇遭到自杀式袭击,据警方的说法,他们被误认为是中国工人。(虽然日本工人未受到伤害并逃离了现场,但一名不是外国人的旁观者遇难。)

“The bottom line is that one of Pakistan’s closest allies and most important donors is now the foreign entity that is the most vulnerable to terrorism in Pakistan,” said Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

“关键是,巴基斯坦最亲密的盟友和最重要的捐助国之一现在是该国最易受到恐怖主义袭击的外国实体,”威尔逊中心南亚研究所所长迈克尔·库格尔曼说。

“Pakistan’s economy is in a very precarious state,” he added. “Islamabad can’t afford to have one of its most critical donors feel that level of vulnerability. The stakes are very high.”

“巴基斯坦的经济处于非常不稳定的状态,”他补充道。“伊斯兰堡不能让其最重要的捐助国之一觉得自己如此易受攻击。这关系到重要利益。”

Already, the security situation appears to have dampened Beijing’s confidence in investing in Pakistan. Last month, Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, visited Beijing and met with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in an effort to secure an additional $17 billion in funding for energy and infrastructure projects. But the visit ended with no firm pledge for future investments from Beijing.

这种安全局面似乎已削弱了中国政府对在巴基斯坦投资的信心。上个月,巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫访问北京并会见了中国领导人习近平,为能源和基础设施项目再争取170亿美元的资金。但在他访问结束时,中国政府并未对未来的投资做出明确承诺。

There was a “vague promise to enhance economic cooperation, but these outcomes fell short of the substantial agreements Pakistan had hoped for,” said Filippo Boni, an academic specializing in China-Pakistan relations at the Open University in Britain.

有“对加强经济合作的模糊承诺,但这些结果并没有达到巴基斯坦所期待的实质性协议”,英国开放大学专门研究中巴关系的学者菲利波·博尼说,

Since the start in 2013 of China’s Belt and Road Initiative — $1 trillion of infrastructure development programs in roughly 70 countries — Pakistan has been the program’s flagship site. Beijing has planned billions of dollars in megaprojects in the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and it has started on several, including the deepwater port in Gwadar.

中国的“一带一路”倡议始于2013年,已对约70个国家的基础设施建设项目投资了一万亿美元,巴基斯坦一直是该倡议的旗舰地点。中国政府计划为所谓的“中巴经济走廊”投资数十亿美元的大型项目,其中有几个已经开工,包括瓜达尔深水港。

Along the way, China has also lent more and more to Pakistan as the country has faced a major economic downturn, with inflation hitting double digits and joblessness soaring.

在这些项目的同时,随着巴基斯坦面临严重的经济衰退,通胀率达到了两位数,失业率飙升,中国也向该国提供了越来越多的贷款。

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For years, the megaprojects have faced security threats from militant groups operating in Pakistan, including the Islamic State affiliate in the region; armed separatists; and the Pakistani Taliban, an ideological twin and ally of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

多年来,这些大型项目一直面临来自巴基斯坦境内激进组织的威胁,包括伊斯兰国在该地区的分支、武装分裂分子,以及巴基斯坦塔利班,后者与阿富汗塔利班有完全相同的意识形态,是其盟友。

Many harbor grievances against China, experts say. The Islamic State and Pakistani Taliban seek revenge for Beijing’s repression of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. In recent years, both groups have begun collaborating with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Uyghur organization that China has long accused of inciting unrest in Xinjiang, according to a United Nations Security Council report released in January.

专家们认为,许多组织对中国心怀不满。伊斯兰国和巴基斯坦塔利班寻求报复中国政府镇压新疆维吾尔族穆斯林的做法。据联合国安理会今年1月发布的一份报告,这两个组织近年来已开始与东突厥斯坦伊斯兰运动合作,中国长期以来指责该运动煽动新疆动乱。

Others, like the Baluch Liberation Army, an armed separatist group in Baluchistan Province, oppose outsiders — including Pakistan’s central government and China — benefiting from the province’s natural resources.

其他组织,如俾路支省的武装分裂组织俾路支解放军,反对外来者(包括巴基斯坦中央政府和中国)从该省的自然资源中获利。

“They view Chinese development efforts as reinforcing Pakistan’s central government, which they perceive as oppressive,” said Iftikhar Firdous, an expert on armed groups with The Khorasan Diary, an Islamabad-based research platform.

“在他们看来,中国的开发努力会加强巴基斯坦中央政府,而他们认为中央政府压制人民,”伊夫蒂卡尔·菲尔杜斯说,他是总部设在伊斯兰堡的研究平台The Khorasan Diary研究武装团伙的专家。

Over the past three years, violence from those groups has surged, an increase that many experts attribute to the Taliban seizing power in Afghanistan. Pakistani officials have accused the Taliban government of offering safe haven to some groups, like the Pakistani Taliban, which they say has allowed violence to flourish.

来自这些团体的暴力事件已在过去三年里激增,许多专家将激增的原因归于塔利班在阿富汗夺取了政权。巴基斯坦官员指责塔利班政府为某些团伙(如巴基斯坦塔利班)提供庇护,他们声称,这导致了暴力事件的猖獗。

The Afghan government has denied those claims, and it has cracked down on other terrorist groups within the country, including the Islamic State. But one result of that was to push militant fighters into Pakistan, experts say.

阿富汗政府已否认了这些说法,并打击了该国境内的其他恐怖组织,包括伊斯兰国。但专家们说,那样做的一个结果是迫使武装分子进入巴基斯坦。

As violence has rebounded across Pakistan, so, too, have attacks on Chinese workers and projects.

随着巴基斯坦各地的暴力事件增加,针对中国工人和中国项目的袭击也在增加。

Seeking to rebuild Beijing’s confidence, in recent months Pakistani authorities have bolstered the ranks of a dedicated security division within the police and military established in 2015 to safeguard Chinese Belt and Road Initiative projects. They have discussed additional fencing around the port in Gwadar, the centerpiece of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

为了恢复中国政府的信心,巴基斯坦当局已在近几个月里加强了一个专门安全部门的人员配置,该部门是为保护中国的“一带一路”项目于2015年在警队和军队内部设立的。他们已讨论了在瓜达尔港周围增设围栏的问题,瓜达尔港是中巴经济走廊的核心。

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But the country’s law enforcement is already overstretched, officials say. Police and army officers are ill-equipped to confront militants, many of whom are armed with American-made weapons procured from Afghanistan after U.S. troops withdrew. More focus on protecting Chinese nationals could come at the expense of protecting Pakistanis, they warn.

但官员表示,巴基斯坦的执法部门已经不堪重负。警察和部队在抗击武装分子方面装备不足,许多武装分子有从美国军队撤离阿富汗后获得的美制武器。官员们警告,把重点放在保护中国公民上,可能会以牺牲巴基斯坦人为代价。

Chinese officials have urged Pakistan to let private Chinese security contractors protect its projects in the country, an idea Pakistani authorities have rejected.

中国官员敦促巴基斯坦允许中国的私营安保承包商保护中国在巴基斯坦的项目,但巴基斯坦当局拒绝了这个建议。

The countries have also been at odds about other approaches to coping with the threat from the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or T.T.P., said Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace.

美国和平研究所的高级专家阿斯凡迪亚·米尔称,中巴两国在应对巴基斯坦塔利班(又称巴基斯坦塔利班运动,简称TTP)威胁的其他做法上也存在分歧。

Pakistani officials have sought to pressure the Afghan government to act against T.T.P. fighters. At times Pakistan has directly attacked them, officials say, firing airstrikes into Afghanistan and expelling Afghan refugees.

巴基斯坦官员已寻求向阿富汗政府施压,要求它对TTP武装分子采取行动。巴基斯坦有时直接打击TTP武装分子,官员们说,比如对阿富汗境内发动空袭,驱逐阿富汗难民。

China has taken a more collaborative approach, Mr. Mir said, effectively offering to normalize relations with Afghanistan in the hopes of persuading Taliban officials to negotiate with the T.T.P. on Beijing’s behalf.

中国已采取了更具合作性的方式,米尔说,实际上已提出与阿富汗恢复正常外交关系,希望能说服塔利班官员代表北京与TTP进行谈判。

Pakistani officials have faced resistance from their own citizens over the recent increase in security measures for Chinese workers.

巴基斯坦官员们在加强中国工人安全措施的做法上最近遭到了本国公民的反对。

In Gwadar, hundreds of residents have poured into the streets in recent months to protest the government’s digging a trench to separate the compound where the Chinese live from the rest of the city.

瓜达尔的数百名居民在最近几个月走上街头,抗议政府挖壕沟,将中国人居住的小区与城市其他地区隔开。

The trench was the latest security measure. Checkpoints line major roads, where every few miles police and army personnel scan identification cards and search vehicles. Hundreds of police and army officers roam the streets. There has been talk of walling off the Chinese-built portion of the city entirely with a new fence.

壕沟是最新的安全措施。主要道路两旁已设有检查站,每隔几公里就有警察和部队人员扫描身份证,搜查车辆。数百名警察和军人在街上巡逻。有传闻称,将用新围栏把中国建造的部分与该城完全隔开。

“Living in Gwadar already feels like living in a security zone,” said Mumtaz Hout, 29, a university student. “Now these new trenches, and the talk of future fencing, are further restricting our movement and violating our basic rights.”

“住在瓜达尔住已经让人感觉像是住在安全隔离区,”29岁的大学生穆姆塔兹·胡特说。“现在,这些新壕沟以及未来设置围栏的传闻正在进一步限制我们的行动,侵犯我们的基本权利。”

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