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法国大选:左翼联盟崛起,联合阻击极右翼

ROGER COHEN

2024年7月8日

周日,左翼联盟的支持者在巴黎庆祝法国选举结果。 Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times

France faced a hung parliament and deep political uncertainty after the three main political groups of the left, center and right emerged from snap legislative elections on Sunday with large shares of the vote but nothing approaching an absolute majority.

在周日提前举行的议会选举中,左翼、中间派和右翼三个主要政治团体获得了大量选票,但都远未达到绝对多数,法国面临着出现悬浮议会的可能性,以及严重的政治不确定性。

The preliminary results upended widespread predictions of a clear victory for the National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant party that dominated the first round of voting a week ago. Instead, the left-wing New Popular Front won 177 seats.

初步结果颠覆了对勒庞领导的反移民政党国民联盟将大胜的普遍预测。该政党在一周前的第一轮投票中占据主导地位。相反,左翼的“新人民阵线”赢得了177个席位。

The centrist coalition of President Emmanuel Macron, who cast the country into turmoil a month ago by calling the election, was in second place with 148 seats. Trailing it was the National Rally and its allies, which took 142 seats.

总统马克龙领导的中间派联盟以148个席位位居第二,他在一个月前宣布举行大选,使国家陷入动荡。紧随其后的是国民联盟及其盟友,获得142个席位。

With nearly all of the 577 National Assembly seats called, numbers compiled by The New York Times using data from the Interior Ministry confirmed earlier projections showing that no single party or bloc will win a majority.

随着国民议会的577个席位几乎全部产生,《纽约时报》根据法国内政部的数据编制的数字证实了此前的预测——没有任何一个政党或集团会赢得多数席位。

The details of the outcome may still shift, but it is clear that, to a remarkable degree, a scramble by centrists and the left to form a “Republican front” to confront the National Rally in the second round of voting worked. Candidates across France dropped out of three-way races and called for unity against Ms. Le Pen’s party.

这一结果的细节可能还会发生变化,但很明显,中间派和左翼为了在第二轮投票中对抗国民联盟而匆忙组建的“共和阵线”在很大程度上发挥了作用。法国各地的候选人退出了三方竞争,呼吁团结起来反对勒庞的政党。

“The president now has the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left leader who is the charismatic but polarizing voice of the left-wing alliance. “We are ready.”

“总统现在有责任号召‘新人民阵线’执政,”极具魅力的极左翼领袖、左翼联盟中最为极化的让-吕克·梅朗雄说。“我们准备好了。”

But France looked near ungovernable, with the Paris Olympics about to open in less than three weeks. The left surged, the National Rally added dozens of seats to its presence in the National Assembly, and Mr. Macron’s party suffered a stinging defeat, with the 250 seats held by his party and its allies in the National Assembly cut by about a third.

但是,巴黎奥运会将在不到三周的时间内开幕,而法国目前看起来几乎无法治理。左翼势力汹涌,而国民联盟在国民议会中的席位增加了数十个,马克龙的政党遭受了惨痛的失败,他的政党及其盟友在国民议会中拥有的250个席位减少了约三分之一。

The result was that in the sharply divided lower house of Parliament, where most legislative power resides, no governing coalition appeared immediately conceivable, with Mr. Macron’s centrists squeezed between far-right and far-left groups that detest each other and him.

结果是,拥有最大立法权的议会下院分歧严重,似乎无法立即组建执政联盟,马克龙的中间派被夹在极右派和极左派之间,这两个团体相互憎恶,而且都憎恨马克龙。

07france election kmzc master1050国民联盟主席若尔当·巴尔代拉称,这些交易阻碍了该党争取多数席位的努力,是“不光彩的联盟”。

Jordan Bardella, the protégé of Ms. Le Pen who led the National Rally to victory in European Parliament elections and the first round of legislative voting last month, called the deals that frustrated its push for an absolute majority “an alliance of the dishonorable” and said Mr. Macron had condemned France to “uncertainty and instability.”

勒庞的门徒若尔当·巴尔代拉曾领导国民联盟在欧洲议会选举和上个月的第一轮立法机构投票中获胜。他说,左翼联盟挫败了国民联盟争取绝对多数的努力,是“可耻的联盟”,并称马克龙让法国处于“不确定和不稳定”之中。

Even with fewer seats than predicted, the National Rally has now assumed a place in French politics that erased a postwar political landscape built around the idea that the far right’s history of overt racism and antisemitism made it unworthy of positions of power.

尽管国民联盟的席位少于预期,但它现在在法国政治中占据了一席之地,抹去了战后建立起来的、基于这样一种理念的政治格局,即极右翼公然鼓吹种族主义和反犹主义的历史,因而不配担任权力职位。

Ms. Le Pen has disavowed that past. But even in its rebranded form, the party’s core message remains that immigrants dilute a glorified French national identity and that tighter borders and stricter regulations are needed to keep them out or prevent them from benefiting from the French social safety net.

勒庞否认了这段过去。但是,即使经过改头换面,该党的核心信息仍然是:移民稀释了法国光荣的民族身份,需要收紧边境,实施更严格的监管,将他们拒之门外,或阻止他们从法国的社会保障体系中受益。

France rejected that vision, but voted overwhelmingly for change. It did not want more of the same. It sent a stinging message to the pro-business elites gathered around Mr. Macron, who is term-limited and must leave office in 2027.

法国拒绝接受这一愿景,但以压倒性多数的投票支持变革。它不想重蹈覆辙。它向聚集在马克龙周围的亲商界精英发出了一个严厉的信息。马克龙的任期有限,必须在2027年卸任。

“France is more divided than ever,” said Alain Duhamel, a prominent political scientist and author. “We have learned it was a very bad idea for Mr. Macron to dissolve Parliament and call this election.”

“法国比以往任何时候都更加分裂,”著名政治学家、作家阿兰·迪阿梅尔说。“我们已经明白,马克龙解散议会并举行选举是一个非常糟糕的主意。”

At a time when a faltering President Biden is struggling to counter the nationalist America First message of former President Donald J. Trump, protracted French political limbo could add to an unstable international situation. Long close to Russia, Ms. Le Pen has tried to recast herself as a guarded supporter of Ukraine, but there is no question that Moscow will welcome the National Rally’s growing influence.

眼下,步履蹒跚的拜登总统正在努力对抗前总统特朗普的 “美国优先”民族主义理念,而法国长期的政治僵局可能会加剧不稳定的国际局势。长期以来与俄罗斯关系密切的勒庞一直试图将自己重塑为乌克兰的谨慎支持者,但毫无疑问,莫斯科将欢迎国民联盟日益增长的影响力。

07france mwph master1050周日法国议会选举期间,人们在巴黎投票。

The New Popular Front campaigned on a platform that would raise France’s monthly minimum wage, lower the legal retirement age to 60 from 64, reintroduce a wealth tax and freeze the price of energy and gas. Instead of cutting immigration, as the National Rally vowed, the alliance said it would make the asylum process more generous and smooth.

“新人民阵线”的竞选纲领包括提高法国每月最低工资标准,将法定退休年龄从64岁降至60岁,重新征收财富税,冻结能源和天然气价格。该联盟表示,将使庇护程序更加慷慨和顺利,而不是像国民联盟承诺的那样削减移民。

The platform said the alliance was supportive of Ukraine’s fight for freedom against Russia, and called for President Vladimir V. Putin to “answer for his crimes before international justice.”

纲领还表示,“新人民阵线”支持乌克兰反抗俄罗斯争取自由的斗争,并呼吁普京总统“在国际正义面前为自己的罪行负责”。

How exactly the alliance’s economic program would be financed at a time when France faces a ballooning budget deficit, and how a pro-immigration policy would be applied in a country where it is perhaps the most sensitive issue, was unclear.

在法国面临不断膨胀的预算赤字之际,该联盟的经济计划将如何获得资金,以及如何实施亲移民政策目前尚不得而知,要知道,在法国,移民问题可能是最敏感的问题。

The New Popular Front, which is sharply divided between moderate socialists and the far left, did very well among young people in the first round of voting, and in the projects heavily populated by North African immigrants around major cities, including Paris.

“新人民阵线”内部,温和的社会主义者和极左派之间存在严重分歧,它在第一轮投票中获得了年轻人的支持,在巴黎等主要城市周围北非移民密集的地方表现出色。

The ardently pro-Palestinian stance of Mr. Mélenchon proved popular in these areas, even as it caused outrage when he appeared to cross a line into antisemitism, accusing Yaël Braun-Pivet, the Jewish president of the National Assembly, of “camping out in Tel Aviv to encourage the massacre.” He said of a large demonstration last November against antisemitism that “the friends of unconditional support of the massacre have their rendezvous.”

梅朗雄强烈支持巴勒斯坦的立场在这些地区很受欢迎,但他似乎越过了反犹主义的底线,他指责国民议会的犹太裔议长娅埃尔·布朗-皮韦“跑去特拉维夫,鼓励大屠杀”,这种立场引发了愤怒。他在谈到去年11月反对反犹主义的大规模示威活动时说,“无条件支持大屠杀的同道中人聚到了一起。”

07france election pflc master1050极左翼领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄(右)周日在巴黎表示:“总统现在有责任号召‘新人民阵线’执政。”

Nothing had obliged Mr. Macron to call the snap election, but he was ready to gamble he could still be a unifying figure against the extremes. In fact, he had lost the allure to do so over seven years in office. He declared left and right to be obsolete labels when he came to power in 2017. They no longer are.

马克龙毫无缘由地提前举行选举,但他把赌注押在自己仍然可以成为反对极端势力的团结者。事实上,在执政的七年后,他已经失去了成为这样一个人物的魅力。他在2017年上台时宣布,左派和右派都是过时的标签。现在左右之分回来了。

Still, Mr. Macron’s centrist alliance did better than expected at the last and he lived to fight another day.

不过,马克龙的中间派联盟在最后一轮投票中表现好于预期,他又可以继续战斗了。

Mr. Macron now appears to have two options, excluding resignation, which he has vowed he will not contemplate.

马克龙现在似乎有两个选择,但不包括辞职,因为他誓言不会考虑辞职。

The first is to try to build a broad coalition that might stretch from the left to what remains of moderate Gaullist conservatives, some of whom broke a taboo during the campaign by aligning with the National Rally.

首先是试图建立一个广泛的联盟,可能从左翼延伸到剩下的温和戴高乐保守派,其中一些人在竞选期间打破了禁忌,与国民联盟结盟。

This possibility seems remote. Mr. Macron has made no secret of his intense dislike for Mr. Mélenchon; the feeling is reciprocated.

这种可能性似乎很渺茫。马克龙毫不掩饰自己对梅朗雄的强烈厌恶;梅朗雄对马克龙也是如此。

The second, less ambitious option would be for Mr. Macron to try to form some sort of caretaker government to handle current business.

第二种选择是马克龙组建某种形式的看守政府来处理当前的事务,这看上去不是那么雄心勃勃。

07france election lvcq master1050周日法国议会选举期间,巴黎一个投票站附近。

Mr. Macron might, for example, ask former prime ministers from parties across a centrist bloc — his own, the Socialists, the center-right Republicans — to suggest a government of technocrats or prominent personalities who could deal with a restricted agenda over the next year.

例如,马克龙可能会要求来自中间派政党的前总理们——包括他自己的政党、社会党、中右翼共和党——提出一个由技术官僚或知名人士组成的政府,这些人可以在未来一年处理有限的议程。

Under the Constitution, at least a year must elapse before the next parliamentary election.

根据宪法规定,距离下一次议会选举必须至少有一年的时间。

One area where Mr. Macron may still be able to exert considerable influence, more than if he had been forced into a “cohabitation” with Mr. Bardella as prime minister, is international and military affairs, the traditional preserve of the president in the Fifth Republic.

即使被迫与可能担任总理的巴尔代拉“分享权力”,马克龙或许还是能在外交和军事事务上发挥较大影响力,这是法兰西第五共和国总统的传统专属领域。

An ardent supporter of the 27-nation European Union, which the National Rally wants to weaken, he will no doubt pursue his push for a “Europe power” with more integrated armies, defense industries and technological research, but his clout may be lessened by domestic weakness.

作为对拥有27个成员国的欧盟的热心支持者,他无疑会继续推动拥有更多一体化军队、国防工业和技术研究的“欧洲力量”,但他的影响力可能会因国内的疲软而减弱。而国民联盟希望削弱欧盟。

Mr. Macron, once tempted by a rapprochement with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, has also become an outspoken supporter of Ukraine’s fight for its freedom. With the American presidential election just four months away, doubts have grown over the willingness of the West to continue arming and funding Ukraine.

马克龙曾一度受到与俄罗斯总统普京和解的诱惑,但现在他成为了乌克兰争取自由的坚定支持者。距离美国总统大选只有四个月的时间了,人们越来越怀疑西方是否愿意继续为乌克兰提供武器和资金。

Russia clearly believes France will wobble. “The people of France are seeking a sovereign foreign policy that serves their national interests & a break from the dictate of Washington & Brussels,” the Russian foreign ministry said in statement a few days ago. “French officials won’t be able to ignore these profound shifts in the attitudes of the vast majority of citizens.”

俄罗斯显然认为法国会动摇。“法国人民正在寻求一种符合国家利益的主权外交政策,摆脱华盛顿和布鲁塞尔的支配,”俄罗斯外交部几天前在声明中表示。“法国官员无法忽视绝大多数公民态度的深刻转变。”

France, in short, faces great uncertainty, both internally and externally. It appears that a constitutional crisis cannot be ruled out over the coming months. Gabriel Attal, the outgoing centrist prime minister who offered his resignation Sunday, declared that “tonight no absolute majority can be controlled by the extremes thanks to our determination and values.”

总之,法国在国内外都面临着巨大的不确定性。在未来几个月内,似乎无法排除发生宪法危机的可能性。即将离任的中间派总理加布里埃尔·阿塔尔周日提出辞职,他宣称,“今晚,由于我们的决心和价值观,极端分子无法控制绝对多数。”

07france election clpt master1050马克龙总统上个月在巴黎的新闻发布会上。

He was claiming a small victory, but of course the center does not have any such majority either.

他声称自己取得了小小的胜利,但是,中间派当然也没有取得这样的多数。

Unlike many other European countries, including Belgium, Italy and Germany, France has no tradition of monthslong negotiation to form convoluted coalition governments between parties of divergent views, or of making caretaker alliances. Indeed, Charles de Gaulle designed the Fifth Republic in 1958 to put an end to the parliamentary turmoil and short-lived governments of the Fourth Republic.

与包括比利时、意大利和德国在内的许多其他欧洲国家不同,法国没有在不同观点的政党之间进行长达数月的谈判以组建复杂联合政府的传统,也没有组建看守联盟的传统。事实上,戴高乐在1958年设计了第五共和国,以结束第四共和国的议会动荡和短命政府。

One theory offered for Mr. Macron’s mysterious decision to call the election was that, with the National Rally governing and Mr. Bardella as prime minister, the sheen would have come off the far right party before the presidential election in 2027.

对于马克龙突然宣布举行大选的神秘决定,有一种说法是,在国民联盟执政、巴尔代拉担任总理的情况下,极右翼政党的光环将在2027年总统大选之前褪去。

It was another gamble based on the idea that it is easier to rail from the margins than to make difficult governmental decisions. Mr. Macron does not want to hand the keys to the Élysée Palace, the seat of the presidency, to Ms. Le Pen three years from now.

这是另一场赌博,基于这样一种观点:在边缘进行抨击比做出艰难的政府决策要容易得多。马克龙不希望三年后把总统官邸爱丽舍宫的钥匙交给勒庞。

In this sense, the election result may confound Mr. Macron and benefit Ms. Le Pen. She has demonstrated her growing popularity without her party assuming the burdens of office. On the other hand an ingrained French resistance to the idea of power passing to the far right was once again illustrated.

从这个意义上说,选举结果可能会让马克龙感到困惑,而让勒庞受益。她展示了自己日益增长的人气,而她的政党却没有承担起执政的重任。另一方面,法国人抵制极右翼掌权这一根深蒂固的思想再次得到了体现。

Roger Cohen是《纽约时报》巴黎分社社长。他已经在时报工作了33年,曾担任驻外记者、国际新闻编辑和观点版面专栏作家。2023年,他作为报道乌克兰战争的时报团队成员获得了普利策奖和乔治波尔克奖。点击查看更多关于他的信息

翻译:晋其角

点击查看本文英文版。


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