No part of the world will be hit harder by President Trump’s barrage of “reciprocal” tariffs than the Asia-Pacific region.

在特朗普总统的“对等”关税攻势中，亚太地区受到的打击最大。

Despite his 90-day pause in imposing them, some of Mr. Trump’s steepest tariff rates still hang over developing economies such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka that are highly dependent on trade. He has also threatened lower but still substantial penalties on wealthy trading partners — Japan, South Korea and Australia — that are important U.S. geopolitical allies in the region, as well as Taiwan.

尽管暂停了90天征收关税，越南、泰国、印度尼西亚、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡等高度依赖贸易的发展中经济体仍然面临特朗普施加的最高税率。他还威胁要对富裕的贸易伙伴——日本、韩国和澳大利亚——实施相对低但仍很严重的惩罚，这些国家和台湾一样，都是美国在该地区的重要地缘政治盟友。

Mr. Trump thinks this will lower American trade deficits and bring manufacturing back to the United States. That remains to be seen.

特朗普认为这将降低美国的贸易逆差，并将制造业带回美国。效果如何还有待观察。

But his misguided, incompetent attack on global trade threatens to irreparably harm U.S. influence across the world’s most commercially dynamic region, leaving a vacuum for China to fill. In the long run, Mr. Trump’s actions raise the possibility of the United States ceding its dominant position in Asia-Pacific security. Why, after all, would an increasingly inward-looking America defend a region where it has a reduced economic stake?

但是，他对全球贸易的错误、无能的攻击，可能会对美国在世界上最具商业活力的地区的影响力造成不可弥补的损害，并留下可以由中国来填补的真空。从长远来看，特朗普的行动使美国有可能放弃其在亚太安全领域的主导地位。毕竟，一个日益向内转的美国为什么会保卫一个经济上对它已经不那么重要的地区呢？

The U.S. leadership in Asia that Mr. Trump is gambling with was patiently built up over generations. After World War II, diplomats like George Kennan developed a strategy for prevailing over the Soviet Union by knitting together the most prosperous regions of the world — the United States, Europe and Japan — into one political and economic bloc. That resulting rules-based economic system later expanded to export-focused economies across Asia.

特朗普拿美国在亚洲的领导地位做赌注，这一地位是几代人耐心建立起来的。“二战”后，乔治·凯南等外交官制定了一项战胜苏联的战略，将世界上最繁荣的地区——美国、欧洲和日本——编织成一个政治和经济集团。由此产生的以规则为基础的经济体系后来扩展到整个亚洲的出口导向型经济体。

Security alliances accompanied this — NATO in Europe, defense treaties with Japan, South Korea and others in the Asia-Pacific. This brought American allies under the U.S. military umbrella and protected the broader liberal economic order. Free trade and capital flows flourished. U.S. multinationals profited from supply chains rooted in Asia, American consumers enjoyed cheaper products and Asian countries developed rapidly and integrated with the U.S.-led system. Decades of American economic and geopolitical pre-eminence in the Asia-Pacific followed.

与此相伴的是安全联盟——欧洲的北约，以及与日本、韩国和亚太其他国家的防务条约。这将美国的盟友置于美国的军事保护伞之下，并保护了更广泛的自由经济秩序。自由贸易和资本流动蓬勃发展。美国跨国公司从植根于亚洲的供应链中获利，美国消费者享受到更便宜的产品，亚洲国家迅速发展并融入了美国主导的体系。随后，美国在亚太地区的经济和地缘政治优势地位持续了数十年。

In truth, U.S. dominance was waning even before the Trump era as China’s economic power grew. Mr. Trump helped accelerate this trend during his first term by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a Pacific Rim trade agreement that would have strengthened American influence and served as a counterpoint to China. Instead, China became the largest trading partner for almost every Asian nation and the region’s predominant economic force. It remains so today.

事实上，在特朗普时代之前，随着中国经济实力的增长，美国的主导地位就已经在减弱。特朗普在第一个任期退出了《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》，从而加速了这一趋势。这个环太平洋贸易协定本可以加强美国的影响力，并起到制衡中国的作用。相反，中国成了几乎所有亚洲国家的最大贸易伙伴，并成为该地区的主要经济力量。直到今天依然如此。

Yet even during Mr. Trump’s first term, and under President Biden, it was still possible to say Washington supported open trade, partly as a bulwark against Chinese power. Mr. Trump’s indiscriminate tariffs amount to an attack on this system, severely damaging trust in the United States as a trading partner and creating havoc for American manufacturers seeking to relocate their production from China to other Asian countries.

然而，即使在特朗普的第一个任期，以及拜登总统的任期内，仍然可以说华盛顿是在支持开放贸易，部分是作为对抗中国力量的一道壁垒。特朗普不分青红皂白的关税相当于对这一体系的攻击，严重损害了人们对美国作为贸易伙伴的信任，并给寻求将生产从中国转移到其他亚洲国家的美国制造商造成了严重破坏。

Vietnam is a prime example of the mutual benefits of the U.S. system — and the shortsightedness of Mr. Trump’s measures. Hanoi’s openness to trade fueled the country’s rapid economic growth over the last decade and helped turn a former foe of the United States into a strategically important economic partner situated on China’s doorstep. Today, around one-third of Vietnamese exports go to the United States.

越南是美国体系互利共赢的典型例子，也突出说明了特朗普的措施的短视。河内对贸易的开放推动了该国在过去十年中的快速经济增长，并帮助一个美国的旧敌转变为位于中国家门口的重要经济伙伴，具有战略意义。如今，越南约三分之一的出口产品销往美国。

If Vietnam were hit with anything close to the 46 percent tariffs Mr. Trump originally threatened to impose, the country could face economic ruin. It’s not alone. Sri Lanka, recovering from a deep economic crisis, may face tariffs of up to 44 percent if the United States follows through; for Bangladesh, struggling to get on its feet after a democratic revolution, 37 percent. Potential tariffs of 32 percent loom for Taiwan — a vital player in America’s geopolitical contest with China — and Indonesia, the region’s third most populous nation, after China and India.

如果越南受到接近特朗普最初威胁要征收的46%关税的打击，该国可能面临经济崩溃。这还不是唯一的一例。斯里兰卡正从严重的经济危机中复苏，如果美国继续高关税，该国面临的关税可能高达44%；在民主革命后艰难地重新站起来的孟加拉国可能面临37%的关税。在美国与中国的地缘政治较量中扮演重要角色的台湾、该地区人口仅次于中国和印度的第三大国印度尼西亚也可能面临32%的关税。

Tough choices lie ahead for these countries.

这些国家面临着艰难的抉择。

Some will have to cave to U.S. demands in ways that may undermine their vulnerable economies. Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, already has offered to drop his country’s tariffs on American goods to zero.

一些国家将不得不屈服于美国的要求，这可能会损害其脆弱的经济。越南领导人苏林已经提出将该国对美国商品的关税降至零。

But Mr. Trump’s capricious nature may ultimately force countries to consider alternatives to trading with the United States. China, with its huge economy and resource needs, is an obvious choice. With Mr. Trump assessing even larger tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing, too, will be more open to finding other outlets for trade. This will almost certainly increase China’s already considerable sway over the region and aid its efforts to build a new model of globalization that serves Chinese, rather than Western, interests. Those efforts continue: China held joint talks in late March with South Korea and Japan on a possible three-way free trade agreement, and President Xi Jinping last week toured Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia to boost economic ties.

但特朗普反复无常的性格最终可能会迫使各国考虑与美国贸易之外的替代方案。拥有巨大经济和资源需求的中国是一个显而易见的选择。随着特朗普评估对中国商品征收更高的关税，北京也将更加开放地寻找其他贸易渠道。这几乎肯定会增加中国在该地区已经相当大的影响力，并有助于其努力建立一个新的全球化模式，为中国而不是西方的利益服务。这些努力仍在继续：3月底，中国与韩国和日本就可能达成的三方自由贸易协定举行了联合会谈，习近平主席上周访问了越南、马来西亚和柬埔寨，以促进经济联系。

All of this raises questions about U.S. security commitments in Asia. Mr. Trump’s “America First” doctrine opposes costly overseas security arrangements — just ask the Ukrainians — and the American public shows waning interest in foreign entanglements. If Mr. Trump’s trade war weakens U.S. economic engagement with Asia, such sentiment may intensify.

所有这些都使人们对美国在亚洲的安全承诺产生了疑问。特朗普的“美国优先”原则反对代价高昂的海外安全布局——问问乌克兰人就知道了——美国公众对卷入外国事务的兴趣也在减弱。如果特朗普的贸易战削弱了美国与亚洲的经济接触，这种情绪可能会加剧。

The implications of a less robust American security presence would be far-reaching. China could increase its political and military domination of the region. U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea may, in turn, feel they need to develop nuclear weapons to ensure their security (debates have begun on the issue in both countries). The perception of American unreliability may lead them — and other countries like Vietnam — to reach some kind of security accommodation with Beijing rather than resist.

美国安全力量减弱的影响将是深远的。中国可能会加强其在该地区的政治和军事统治。反过来，美国的盟友，如日本和韩国，可能会觉得需要发展核武器来确保安全（两国已经开始讨论这个问题）。认为美国不可靠的看法可能会导致它们——以及越南等其他国家——与北京达成某种安全妥协，而不是抵抗北京。

Those scenarios seem far-off for now. Some members of Mr. Trump’s team still favor sticking to or expanding U.S. security commitments in Asia, even while reducing them in Europe. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Japan and the Philippines in late March to reassure nervous allies of this.

这些情景目前看来还很遥远。特朗普团队的一些成员仍然倾向于坚持或扩大美国在亚洲的安全承诺，哪怕同时减少美国在欧洲的安全承诺。国防部长皮特·海格塞斯3月底访问了日本和菲律宾，向紧张不安的盟友保证这一点。

Mr. Trump may eventually drop his tariffs, or the Democratic Party could return to power in four years and try to rebuild relations. But America is unlikely to fully regain the trust it once enjoyed and which made it the Asia-Pacific region’s undisputed commercial and military power.

特朗普最终可能会取消关税，或者民主党可能会在四年后重新掌权，并试图重建关系。但美国不太可能完全恢复它曾经享有的信任，这种信任曾使它成为亚太地区无可争议的商业和军事力量。