2025年5月21日
Top finance officials from the world’s wealthiest economies began gathering in Canada on Tuesday for meetings that are expected to be consumed by renewed fears of a global downturn set off by President Trump’s trade war.
世界最富有经济体的高级财政官员于周二齐聚加拿大,预计此次会议将主要围绕因特朗普总统发动的贸易战而再次引发的全球经济下行担忧。
The summit of the Group of 7 finance ministers, a traditionally friendly gathering, is likely to be more fraught this year. The tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on American allies and adversaries have threatened to blunt global growth and inflame inflation. Europe, Japan and Canada have all been bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s “America First” economic agenda.
七国集团财长峰会历来是一个友好的聚会,但今年气氛可能会更加紧张。特朗普对美国盟友和对手加征的关税已对全球经济增长构成威胁,并可能加剧通货膨胀。欧洲、日本和加拿大都深受特朗普政府“美国优先”经济议程的影响。
The tenor of the discussions could also be complicated by recent tension between the United States and Canada, the country hosting this year’s meetings and one that Mr. Trump has said he wants to annex.
美国和加拿大之间最近的紧张局势也可能使讨论的氛围复杂化,加拿大是今年会议的东道国,而特朗普曾表示希望将其吞并。
“I think it’s going to be awkward,” said Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
“我觉得场面大概会有些尴尬,”大西洋理事会地缘经济中心副主任查尔斯·利奇菲尔德说。
The three days of meetings will include many of the recent topics of discussion, including support for Ukraine, concerns about China’s economic practices and headwinds facing the global economy. However, Mr. Trump’s trade tactics, which many economists view as the biggest threat to global economic stability, will dominate the discussions between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his counterparts.
为期三天的会议将涵盖许多近期讨论的议题,包括对乌克兰的支持、对中国经济行为的担忧,以及全球经济面临的逆风。但特朗普的贸易策略——许多经济学家认为这是对全球经济稳定的最大威胁——将成为财政部长斯科特·贝森特与各国官员讨论的核心内容。
“We always talk about the issues that are front and center,” François-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s finance minister, said at an opening news conference on Tuesday, noting that during recent meetings with American officials in Washington, “there was always tension around tariffs.”
“我们总是讨论最核心、最紧迫的问题,”加拿大财政部长弗朗索瓦-菲利普·尚帕涅在周二的开幕新闻发布会上表示,他还指出,在最近与美国官员在华盛顿的会谈中,“关税问题始终是一个紧张的焦点。”
Making the case that economic stability is important for consumers, investors and businesses, Mr. Champagne added: “A free and fair and a rules-based multilateral trading system is a system in which we all win.”
尚帕涅强调经济稳定对消费者、投资者和企业都至关重要,并补充道:“一个自由、公平、以规则为基础的多边贸易体系,是一个让我们所有人都能受益的体系。”
Mr. Bessent, who skipped a gathering of the Group of 20 finance ministers in February, will appear at the international forum for the first time and at a particularly tenuous moment.
贝森特缺席了今年2月的二十国集团财政部长会议,这将是他首次出席这一国际论坛,而且是在一个尤其微妙的时刻。
Mr. Bessent plans to make the case that countries need to get “back to basics” and take steps to address “imbalances and nonmarket practices,” according to a Treasury Department spokesman. Mr. Bessent is also expected to prioritize expressing the Trump administration’s concerns, which are widely shared among the Group of 7 nations, about China’s excess industrial capacity, according to a person briefed on the U.S. position. The Group of 7 is made up of the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.
据美国财政部发言人表示,贝森特计划阐明,各国需要“回归基本原则”,并采取措施应对“失衡与非市场行为”。据一位了解美方立场的人士透露,贝森特还预计将优先表达特朗普政府对中国产能过剩的担忧,而这一担忧在七国集团国家中也被广泛认同。七国集团成员包括:美国、加拿大、英国、法国、德国、意大利和日本。
Since taking office, Mr. Trump has upended the global trading system with a blizzard of tariffs. He imposed a 10 percent universal tax on almost every trading partner, in addition to 25 percent tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, cars and car parts. He raised tariffs on China to a punishing 145 percent in April before reducing them to 30 percent this month in order to allow Beijing and Washington to negotiate a trade deal.
自上任以来,特朗普通过一系列关税政策颠覆了全球贸易体系。他对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收了10%的普遍税率,并对进口钢铁、铝、汽车及汽车零部件加征了25%的关税。4月,他将对中国的关税提高到了惊人的145%,但在本月将其降至30%,以便让北京和华盛顿能够进行贸易谈判。
In April, Mr. Trump hit dozens of countries with “reciprocal” tariffs before pausing those levies for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations. Mr. Bessent and other Trump officials have said the administration is working to strike deals by July 8 with 18 to 24 trading partners, including Argentina, Malaysia, Israel, Switzerland, India, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand.
4月,特朗普对几十个国家征收了“对等”关税,随后暂停了这些关税90天,以进行贸易谈判。贝森特和其他特朗普政府官员表示,政府正努力在7月8日之前与18到24个贸易伙伴达成协议,其中包括阿根廷、马来西亚、以色列、瑞士、印度、日本、越南、韩国和泰国。
The United States and the European Union have also been negotiating over trade terms, though tensions between the governments remain high.
美国和欧盟也一直在就贸易条款进行谈判,尽管双方政府之间的关系仍然十分紧张。
On Sunday, Mr. Bessent warned that higher tariffs could kick in if negotiations with those nations faltered during the 90-day pause.
周日,贝森特警告称,如果在90天关税暂停期内与这些国家的谈判失败,可能会恢复更高的关税。
“I would expect that everyone would come and negotiate in good faith,” Mr. Bessent said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” warning that countries that do not will get letters with new U.S. tariff rates.
贝森特在NBC《会见媒体》节目中表示:“我希望每个国家都能本着诚意来进行谈判,”并警告说,不这样做的国家将收到美国新的关税率通知函。
通过加征关税,特朗普总统颠覆了全球贸易体系。
The compacted time frame could result in trade deals that are quite modest, with countries perhaps agreeing to reduce tariffs on a few products and promising to collaborate in the future in other areas.
由于时间紧迫,最终产生的贸易协议可能相对较为简单,各国或许会同意减少某些产品的关税,并承诺未来在其他领域展开合作。
One model may be the agreement with Britain that the administration announced with great fanfare this month. The deal was quite limited compared with traditional trade pacts. It opened British markets for American beef and ethanol and rolled back American tariffs on British steel and cars. The governments also pledged to discuss digital trade, economic security and other trade matters in the future. But the governments declined to say when the pact would go into effect, and it is not legally binding.
一个可能的模式是本月美国政府大肆宣扬的与英国达成的协议。与传统的贸易协定相比,那项协议相当有限。它为美国牛肉和乙醇打开了英国市场,并取消了美国对英国钢铁和汽车的关税。两国政府还承诺未来将讨论数字贸易、经济安全以及其他贸易事务。但两国政府未透露该协议何时生效,并且该协议没有法律约束力。
While these deals are being hammered out, trade with the United States feels deeply uncertain for many parts of the globe. Mr. Bessent said on CNN on Sunday that the United States was focused on completing agreements with a short list of partners, and that other parts of the world, like Central America or Africa, could see their tariff rates set through regional deals instead.
虽然这些协议正在敲定之中,但对全球许多地区来说,与美国的贸易却充满了不确定性。贝森特周日在CNN上表示,美国的重点是完成与一小部分合作伙伴的协议,而世界其他地区,如中美洲或非洲,可能会通过地区协议来确定关税税率。
A person briefed on the U.S. preparations for the Group of 7 summit said it was unlikely that any additional deals would be announced this week.
一位了解美国为七国集团峰会所做准备的知情人士表示,本周不太可能宣布任何新的协议。
After a meeting between American and Chinese officials in Geneva this month that both sides proclaimed a success, the U.S. and Chinese governments are also starting to communicate more frequently in an effort to make progress on their trade spats. But the countries have significant issues to surmount before higher tariffs are set to snap back into effect between them in early August.
在本月美国和中国官员在日内瓦举行一次会议后,双方都宣称会议取得了成功,美中两国政府也开始更频繁地沟通,力图在贸易争端上取得进展。但两国之间仍然存在重大问题需要克服,否则高额关税将在8月初恢复生效。
Mr. Bessent has tried to strike a pragmatic tone when dealing with foreign counterparts. In a speech last month on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Mr. Bessent maintained that the United States was not retreating from the global stage.
贝森特在与外国官员打交道时试图保持务实的态度。在上个月国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季会议期间的一个演讲中,贝森特表示,美国并没有从全球舞台上撤退。
“America First does not mean America alone,” Mr. Bessent said. “To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration and mutual respect among trade partners.”
“美国优先并不意味着美国要孤立行事,”贝森特说。“相反,这是呼吁贸易伙伴之间更深层次的合作和相互尊重。”
However, many of America’s traditional allies and its largest trading partners remain on edge. Although Mr. Trump has demonstrated a willingness to walk back some of his trade measures, the scale and scope of the tariffs that he has already announced have dwarfed those from his first term.
然而,美国的许多传统盟友及其最大的贸易伙伴仍然感到不安。尽管特朗普表现出在某些贸易措施上做出让步的意愿,但他目前已宣布的关税,在规模和范围上已经远远超过了他第一任期时的水平。
“The big question facing the global economy is effectively a self-inflicted wound,” said Jay C. Shambaugh, who served as the Treasury under secretary for international affairs in the Biden administration. “The biggest thing everyone is worried about is to what extent is a tariff fight that we started going to disrupt the global economy.”
“全球经济面临的最大问题实际上是一次自我造成的伤害,”曾任拜登政府财政部国际事务副部长的杰伊·C·香博表示。“大家最担心的,就是我们发起的这场关税战将在多大程度上扰乱全球经济。”