Roxana Saberi felt like she was back behind bars in Tehran. As she watched Israel’s bombing of Evin prison, the notorious detention facility at the core of Iran’s political repression, she shuddered at memories of solitary confinement, relentless interrogation, fabricated espionage charges and a sham trial during her 100-day incarceration in 2009.

罗克萨娜·萨贝里感觉自己仿佛又回到了德黑兰的监狱。当看到以色列轰炸埃文监狱时，她对自己2009年遭到关押的100天里所经历的单独监禁、无休止的审讯、捏造的间谍罪名和走过场的审判的记忆不寒而栗。臭名昭著的埃文监狱是伊朗政治镇压的核心。

Like many Iranians in the diaspora and at home, Ms. Saberi wavered, torn between her dreams of a government collapse that would free the country’s immense potential and her concern for family and friends as the civilian death toll mounted. Longings for liberation and for a cease-fire vied with each other.

像许多海内外的伊朗人一样，萨贝里也陷入了矛盾：一方面她梦想着伊朗现政府垮台，从而释放这个国家的巨大潜力；另一方面随着平民伤亡人数不断攀升，她担心家人和朋友的安危。对解放的渴望和对停火的期盼相互交织、牵扯。

“For a moment, I imagined seeing Iran again in my lifetime,” said Ms. Saberi, 48, a dual Iranian and American citizen and author who has taken a break from her journalistic career. “I also thought how ridiculous it was that the Islamic Republic wasted decades accusing thousands of women’s rights advocates, dissidents and others of being spies, when they couldn’t catch the real spies.”

“有那么一瞬间，我想象着自己有生之年能回到伊朗，”48岁的萨贝里拥有伊朗和美国双重国籍，是一名暂时停止了记者生涯的作家。“我还想到，伊斯兰共和国几十年来指控成千上万的女权人士、异议人士等等是间谍，结果却抓不到真正的间谍，这多么荒谬。”

Those spies, mainly from Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence service, penetrated Iran’s highest political and military echelons. The question now is what a shaken Islamic Republic in dire economic straits will do with what President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, has called “a golden opportunity for change.” That moment is also one of extreme, even existential, risk brought on by the 12-day Israeli-Iranian war that the United States briefly joined.

那些间谍主要来自以色列的情报部门摩萨德，他们渗透进了伊朗最高政治和军事阶层。现在的问题是，一个在经济困境中摇摇欲坠的伊斯兰共和国将如何利用总统马苏德·佩泽什基安所说的“变革的黄金机会”。这一机会也伴随着极端的，甚至关乎存亡的风险，源于一度有美国参与的一场为期12天的以伊战争。

The military campaign flirted with dislodging the clerical autocracy that has made uranium enrichment the symbol of Iran’s national pride, but stopped short of killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had said that the ayatollah’s death would “end the conflict.” The 46-year-old Islamic Republic limps on.

这场军事行动有意推翻将铀浓缩视为伊朗民族自豪象征的神权专制政权，但未能杀死86岁的伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊，尽管以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾表示，哈梅内伊的死将“结束冲突”。成立46年的伊斯兰共和国仍在蹒跚前行。

德黑兰民众手持伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及其前任的照片，摄于4月。

It does so despite the collapse of its “axis of resistance” that was formed through the funding, at vast expense, of anti-Western proxies from Lebanon to Yemen; despite the devastating bombing of its equally exorbitant nuclear facilities that never produced a bomb and scarcely lit a lightbulb; and despite the humiliation of surrendering the skies above Iran to its enemies.

与此同时，伊朗斥巨资资助从黎巴嫩到也门的反西方代理人，但其“抵抗轴心”已经瓦解；同样耗资巨大的核设施遭到毁灭性轰炸，这些设施不仅从未造出原子弹，甚至连个灯泡都没点亮过；伊朗还将领空拱手让给敌人，颜面尽失。

Yet Mr. Khamenei, as the guardian of the theocratic anti-Western revolution that triumphed in 1979, sees himself as the victor. “The Islamic Republic won,” he said in a video broadcast on Thursday from a secret location, laying to rest rumors of his demise.

然而，作为1979年取得胜利的反西方神权革命的守护者，哈梅内伊认为自己是胜利者。他在周四从某个秘密地点发布的视频中说：“伊斯兰共和国赢了。”这平息了有关他已死的传言。

His is a survival game dosed with prudence that now faces the greatest test of his 36 years in power.

他玩的是一场谨慎的生存游戏，现在面临着他执政36年来最大的考验。

“To understand Iran and Khamenei and the people around him is to understand that the Islamic Republic’s survival is always a victory,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London think tank.

伦敦智库查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔说：“要理解伊朗、哈梅内伊和他身边的人，就要明白伊斯兰共和国的生存永远是一种胜利。”

Revolution at a Crossroads

革命的十字路口

Already, tensions over how to address the crisis brought on by the war are evident.

这场战争引发的危机如何解决，各方之间的紧张关系已经显现。

President Pezeshkian appears to favor a liberalizing makeover, repairing relations with the West through a possible nuclear deal. He has spoken in recent days of “an opportunity to change our views on governance.”

佩泽什基安总统似乎倾向于自由化改革，通过可能达成的核协议修复与西方的关系。他近日提到了“改变我们的治理观的机会”。

美国袭击伊朗核设施后，伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安现身德黑兰抗议现场。

It was not clear what he meant, but many in Iran favor strengthening elected institutions and making the supreme leader more of a figurehead than the ultimate font of authority. They seek an Islamic Republic that is more of a republic, where women are empowered and a younger generation no longer feels oppressed by a gerontocratic theological system.

虽然不清楚他究竟是什么意思，但许多伊朗人赞成加强民选体制，让最高领袖更多地成为一个象征性角色，而不是最高权威。他们寻求一个更具共和国性质的伊斯兰共和国，让女性拥有权力，让年轻一代不再感到被一个年迈的神权体制所压迫。

Mr. Khamenei insisted that the Israeli and American attack on nuclear facilities had failed “to achieve anything significant.” But Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seemed to question that judgment, saying on Thursday that the country’s nuclear facilities had sustained “significant and serious damage.”

哈梅内伊坚称，以色列和美国对核设施的打击“没有取得任何重大成果”。但外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格希似乎对这一判断提出质疑，他在上周四表示，伊朗的核设施遭到“严重损毁”。

Hardliners see any disunity as a danger signal. They believe concessions presage collapse. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, 69 years after its formation, and the “color revolutions” that brought Western democracy to post-Soviet states, deeply affected Mr. Khamenei and his entourage.

强硬派将任何不团结视为危险信号。他们认为让步预示着垮台。1991年苏联在成立69年后的解体、将西方民主带到后苏联国家的“颜色革命”都对哈梅内伊及其手下产生了深远的影响。

They are suspicious of any nuclear deal, and adamant that Iran must retain the right to enrich uranium on its soil, which Israel and the United States have said is unacceptable. They are also strongly represented in the country’s single most powerful institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

他们对任何核协议都持怀疑态度，并坚持认为伊朗必须保留在本土进行铀浓缩的权利，而以色列和美国表示这是不可接受的。他们在伊朗最具权势的机构伊斯兰革命卫队中也拥有强大的影响力。

The Guards number 150,000 to 190,000 members, Ms. Vakil said. With control over vast swaths of the economy, they have a deep vested interest in the government’s survival. They are the kind of large institutional buffer that President Bashar al-Assad in Syria lacked before his downfall last year.

瓦基尔说，革命卫队有15万到19万名成员。他们控制着相当部分的伊朗经济，这个政府的继续存在给他们带来大量既得利益。去年垮台的叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德缺乏的就是他们这种巨大的体制缓冲机制。

Already, as it did in 2009 when a large-scale uprising threatened the toppling of the Islamic Republic, Iran has embarked on a crackdown involving hundreds of arrests, at least three executions, and the deployment of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia in Kurdish and other restive areas.

就像2009年大规模的抗议活动威胁推翻伊斯兰共和国时一样，伊朗已经开始了镇压，数以百计人被捕，至少三人遭处决，并在库尔德和其他动荡地区部署了革命卫队和巴斯基民兵。

1月在德黑兰举行的阅兵式上，巴斯基民兵组织成员列队行进。

Iranians have seen this movie before. Some wonder what the war was for if they are to face another bludgeoning. “The people want to know who is to blame for multiple defeats, but there is no leader to take on the regime,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent political scientist in the United Arab Emirates. “A weak Islamic Republic could hang on four or five years.”

伊朗人以前目睹过这一幕。一些人想知道，如果他们要再次面对这种打击，那么这场战争的意义何在。“人们想知道谁应该为多次失败负责，但没有领导人能够挑战这个政权，”阿联酋著名政治科学家阿卜杜勒卡勒克·阿卜杜拉说。“一个虚弱的伊斯兰共和国可能还是能维持四五年。”

This weakness appears deep. The “victory” claimed by Mr. Khamenei cannot disguise the fact that Iran is now a nation with near zero deterrence.

这种虚弱似乎根深蒂固。哈梅内伊宣称的“胜利”无法掩盖一个事实：伊朗现在是一个威慑力几乎为零的国家。

“I would imagine that deep in his bunker, Khamenei’s priority must be how to rebuild a deterrence that was based on the nuclear program, the missile program and armed proxies, all now in shreds,” said Jeffrey Feltman, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and, as United Nations under secretary-general for political affairs in 2012, one of the few Americans to have met the supreme leader.

华盛顿布鲁金斯学会访问学者杰弗里·费尔特曼说：“我想，在掩体深处，哈梅内伊的优先事项必定是重建威慑力，这种威慑力基于核计划、导弹计划和武装代理人，而现在这一切都已经土崩瓦解。”2012年担任联合国主管政治事务的副秘书长的费尔特曼，是为数不多见过这位最高领袖的美国人之一。

“Khamenei was obsessed with the mendacity and belligerence of the United States,” Mr. Feltman recalled. “His eyes were benevolent, but his words, expressed in a quiet, dull monotone, were anything but benevolent.”

费尔特曼回忆道：“哈梅内伊坚信美国满嘴谎言，而且好战。他的眼神是亲切的，但他以平静、低沉的单调语气说出的话，绝不亲切。”

Saberi’s hopes rose and fell during the recent fighting as she sat in her parents’ home in North Dakota. Against her better instincts, she found herself digging out her Iranian passport as the 12 days passed, and considering renewing it.

随着最近战事的发展，身在北达科他州父母家中的萨贝里时而燃起希望，时而又陷入绝望。尽管她本能地觉得不妥，但随着这12天过去，她发现自己找出了自己的伊朗护照，考虑拿去换新。

She has not visited Iran in the 16 years since her release, knowing that return, as she put it, “would be a one-way ticket.” But the tug of her second home, Iran, where she lived for six years, endures.

自获释以来，她在16年里没有回过伊朗，因为正如她所说，她知道回去“将是一张单程票”。但她对第二故乡伊朗的思念之情依然存在，她曾在那里生活了六年。

1979年，德黑兰，时任最高领袖霍梅尼（现任领袖哈梅内伊的前任）祝福民众。

“Iran’s in our heart, it’s in our blood, there is nowhere in the world like it, and I know so many Iranians in the diaspora who would go back and contribute if the regime falls,” she said. “My dad, in his 80s, spends his time translating Persian poetry.”

她说：“伊朗在我们的心里，在我们的血液里，世界上没有哪个地方能像它一样，我知道很多身居海外的伊朗人，如果政权垮台，他们会回去贡献力量。我父亲80多岁了，他把时间都花在翻译波斯诗歌上。”