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“美中关系晴雨表”:香格里拉对话凸显双方分歧

储百亮, DAMIEN CAVE

2024年6月3日

中国国防部长董军周日在新加坡的香格里拉对话上发表讲话,反对美国支持台湾。 Nhac Nguyen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The competing strains on U.S. global power came into sharp focus at a security conference on Sunday, where China accused the United States of stoking tensions around Taiwan and the South China Sea, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine sought greater support for his embattled country.

全球多个地区纷纷竞争美国影响力的支持,这给美国造成的压力在周日一个安全会议上备受关注。中国在会上指责美国在台湾海峡和南海制造紧张局势,乌克兰总统泽连斯基则在会上为他处境艰难的祖国寻求更多支持。

These scenes played out at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum in Singapore that has long been a barometer of the ups and downs of U.S.-China relations.

这些场景发生在香格里拉对话期间。长期以来,这个在新加坡举行的年度安全论坛一直是美中关系起伏的晴雨表。

This year, the United States defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, and China’s defense minister, Adm. Dong Jun, held talks, something the top defense officials from the two countries have not always done at this gathering. But Admiral Dong made clear that China remained antagonistic to U.S. influence and alliance-building across Asia, especially American support for Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

今年,美国国防部长奥斯汀和中国国防部长董军上将在论坛期间举行了会晤,两国的高级国防官员并不总在该会议期间举行会晤。但董军明确表示,中国仍然反对美国在亚洲扩大影响力和联盟,尤其是美国对台湾的支持。台湾是一个民主的岛屿,北京宣称它是自己的领土。

“These malign intentions are drawing Taiwan to the dangers of war,” Admiral Dong told the meeting after making an oblique but unmistakable reference to U.S. military and political support for Taiwan. “Anyone who dares split Taiwan from China will be smashed to pieces and court their own destruction.”

“这些险恶用心正在把台湾引向险境,”董军在会上说,之前他不点名地提到对台湾的军事和政治支持,矛头明显指向美国。“谁胆敢把台湾从中国分裂出去,必将粉身碎骨、自取灭亡!”

Admiral Dong’s warnings, and other combative comments from Chinese military officers at the meeting, reflected how far apart Beijing and Washington remain over basic issues, even as they discuss ways to keep military friction at sea and in the air from spiraling into crisis.

董军的警告以及中国军官们在论坛上发表的其他好斗言论反映了北京与华盛顿在基本问题上仍存在很大分歧,尽管两国军方已开始讨论如何防止海上和空中的军事摩擦升级为危机。

02asia security jtpw master1050台湾金门岛的一名居民观看中国在台湾周边举行军演的报道,摄于上月。

Last month, China held two days of menacing military exercises around Taiwan, accusing its new president, Lai Ching-te, of trying to advance independence for the island. Mr. Lai has said he wants to preserve Taiwan’s ambiguous status quo — self-governed, yet short of full formal independence — but Chinese officials describe him as a menace to Beijing’s claims to the island.

上个月,中国在台湾周边举行了为期两天的威胁性军事演习,指责新总统赖清德试图将台湾推向独立。尽管赖清德已表示,他希望保持台湾的模糊现状,即维持自治,但不正式宣布独立,但中国官员将他描述为中国对台湾主权要求的威胁。

“I think that in essence it was a step toward Taiwan independence,” Lt. Gen. He Lei, a former vice president of China’s Academy of Military Sciences, said of Mr. Lai’s inaugural speech last month. “As long as he goes further and further down the road of Taiwan independence, going deeper and deeper, the dangers in the Taiwan Strait will only increase.”

“我认为,这实质上是迈向台独的一步,”中国军事科学院前副院长何雷中将在谈到赖清德上个月的就职演讲时说。“如果他在‘台独’的道路上越走越远,台湾海峡的危险就会越来越大。”

Wen Lii, a spokesman for the Taiwanese president, said the Chinese officials’ comments in Singapore “willfully distorted” Taiwan’s position, and that the recent People’s Liberation Army exercises sent “a dangerous and irresponsible message.”

台湾总统发言人李问称,中国官员在新加坡的言论“曲解”了台湾的立场,解放军最近的演习传递的是“危险而不负责任的沟通方式”。

Mr. Austin warned in a speech on Saturday against “actions in this region that erode the status quo and threaten peace and stability,” an indirect reference to Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Mr. Austin also said “we all share an interest in ensuring that the South China Sea remains open and free.”

奥斯汀在周六的讲话中警告,反对“在该地区采取破坏现状、威胁和平与稳定的行动”,这是间接地指中国对台湾施压的做法。奥斯汀还说,“我们都希望确保南海的开放和自由航行。”

But Admiral Dong accused an unnamed Southeast Asian country — clearly the Philippines — of stirring up trouble over disputed islands and shoals in the sea, and again suggested that the United States was the real culprit.

但董军指责一个他不点名的东南亚国家(显然是菲律宾)在南海有争议的岛屿和浅滩附近挑起事端,并再次暗示美国是真正的罪魁祸首。

“A certain country, incited by external forces, has abandoned bilateral agreements, broken its promises, and taken premeditated action to stir up incidents,” he said in his speech to diplomats, military officials and experts, many from Asian countries. “China has exercised sufficient restraint in responding to these provocations, but this restraint has its limits.”

“有个别国家在外部势力的煽动下,毁弃双边的约定,违背自身的承诺,有预谋的挑起事端,”他在论坛上对许多来自亚洲国家的外交官、军事官员和专家发表讲话时说。“中国对侵权挑衅行径保持了足够的克制,但这也是有限的。”

02asia security qzwg master1050美国国防部长奥斯汀(中)周六在香格里拉论坛发表讲话时,对“该地区破坏现状、威胁和平与稳定的行动”作出了警告。

The Philippines has been at odds with China over their rival claims in the South China Sea, in an area that Manila calls the West Philippine Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea rejected China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, which included shoals near the Philippines. Beijing ignored that ruling.

菲律宾与中国对南海的一片水域(菲律宾称该水域为西菲律宾海)存在主权纠纷。《联合国海洋法公约》授权设立的国际仲裁庭曾在2016年驳回了中国对南海大片水域(包括菲律宾附近的浅滩)的主权主张。中国无视这一裁决。

At the meeting in Singapore, the Philippines’ president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., warned on Friday that his government could call on support from the United States under a mutual defense treaty in the event that a Chinese vessel caused the death of a Philippine sailor.

菲律宾总统马科斯上周五在新加坡的论坛上警告,如果中国船只造成菲律宾船员死亡的话,菲律宾政府将根据一个共同防御条约向美国寻求支持。

A U.S. official who heard Admiral Dong’s speech took issue with his portrayal of China as the innocent victim in regional disputes. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss geopolitical tensions, said the admiral’s assertion was at odds with the Chinese military’s “coercive activity” in the region.

一名听了董军发言的美国官员对董军把中国描述为区域争端中无辜受害者的说法表示异议。这名要求不透露姓名的官员说,董军的说法与中国军方在该地区的“胁迫行为”不符。

Even in Singapore, Mr. Austin and other Western officials were also reminded that Ukraine’s more than two-year war against Russian invasion continues to demand their leaders’ attention and their taxpayers’ resources.

虽然会议地点是新加坡,但奥斯汀和其他西方官员们仍被提醒,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争已经持续了两年多,这场战争仍需得到他们国家领导人的关注,以及他们国家纳税人的资源。

Mr. Zelensky, a last-minute addition to the gathering, met on Sunday with Mr. Austin, who provided an update on U.S. security assistance, according to a Pentagon readout of the meeting. Then Mr. Zelensky addressed the conference.

据五角大楼发布的记要,周日论坛的最后一刻增加了泽连斯基与奥斯汀会晤的安排,奥斯汀介绍了美国为乌克兰提供安全援助的最新情况。之后,泽连斯基在论坛上发表了讲话。

02asia security pzwm master1050一艘中国海岸警卫队船只在有争议的南海监视菲律宾渔民,摄于上月。

Faced with Russian military advances in his country, Mr. Zelensky has been urging the United States and Europe to step up support for his forces and overcome fears about letting Ukraine fire American missiles and other weapons at military targets inside Russia.

面临俄罗斯军队正在乌克兰取得进展的问题,泽连斯基一直在呼吁美国和欧洲加强对乌克兰军队的支持,不要担忧让乌克兰向俄罗斯境内的军事目标发射美国导弹和其他武器的问题。

There is no clear evidence yet that Ukraine has struck inside Russia with weapons provided by its allies in NATO, after the Biden administration acceded last week to a request from the government in Kyiv to be able to hit targets across the border. That shift in U.S. policy had followed declarations from nearly a dozen European governments and Canada that their weapons could be used in this way.

目前尚无明确证据表明乌克兰已使用美国的北约盟友提供的武器打击了俄罗斯境内的目标。拜登政府已在上周同意了乌克兰政府的请求,允许该国打击边境另一侧的目标。美国政策的转变是在十几个欧洲国家和加拿大宣布允许乌克兰可以这样使用它们的武器后做出的。

Nonetheless, regional authorities in Russia said on Sunday that a barrage of near-daily artillery attacks from Ukraine had continued.

尽管如此,俄罗斯地方当局周日称,乌克兰几乎每天都在对当地进行炮击。

Before delivering a speech promoting a peace summit on Ukraine in Switzerland next month that Mr. Zelensky said officials from 106 countries had agreed to join, he was greeted with loud applause. He appealed to leaders across the Indo-Pacific to support the gathering with their attendance or ideas, adding that only diplomacy with persistence would end the conflict.

泽连斯基在论坛上发表讲话前受到了热烈的掌声欢迎,他在讲话中宣传了下月将在瑞士举行的乌克兰问题和平峰会,泽连斯基说,已有来自106个国家的官员同意出席该峰会。他呼吁印度太平洋地区的领导人出席会议或提出想法,并补充说,只有坚持不懈的外交努力才能结束这场冲突。

“The world has to be resilient; it has to be strong; it has to put pressure on Russia,” he told the gathering. “There is no other way to stop Putin.”

“世界需要复原力,需要强大,需要对俄罗斯施加压力,”他对与会者说。“没有其他办法能阻止普京。”

In a news conference afterward, Mr. Zelensky told reporters that Russia had persuaded China to try to help limit Asian participation. He gave no details; the Chinese foreign ministry did not immediately respond to the allegation. He also said that Chinese economic and technology flows to Russia were helping it wage war. The Chinese government has repeatedly denied sending weapons to Russia.

在论坛后的记者会上,泽连斯基对记者们表示,俄罗斯已说服中国,让中国试图帮助减少亚洲对峰会的参与。他没有给出细节;中国外交部没有马上对这个指控作出回应。泽连斯基还说,从中国流向俄罗斯的经济和技术支持正在帮助俄罗斯进行这场战争。中国政府已多次否认向俄罗斯运送武器。

On Sunday, Russian forces continued pounding frontline areas of Ukraine, which is fighting to stave off an offensive by Moscow that has gathered pace in recent weeks.

周日,俄罗斯军队继续在乌克兰前线地区不断发动进攻,乌克兰正在艰难地抵抗俄罗斯军队近几周来不断加大的攻势。


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