The U.S. dollar extended its slide against other major currencies on Monday, the latest sign that investors may be starting to shun what has long been the safest haven in global financial markets.

美元周一延续了对其他主要货币的跌势，这个最新迹象表明，投资者可能正在开始避开长期以来一直是全球金融市场最安全避风港的美元。

An index that tracks the dollar against a basket of major trading partners fell for a fifth straight day, even as U.S. stocks and bonds rallied. The dollar has fallen by roughly 8 percent this year, trading near a three-year low.

追踪美元对主要贸易伙伴国的一篮子汇率的指数已连续五天下跌，尽管美国股市和债市出现反弹。今年以来，美元指数已下跌了约8%，接近三年来的最低水平。

There has been a particularly steep decline since President Trump announced tariffs on nearly every country’s imports a few weeks ago. The dollar has lost value against the euro, the yen, the pound and a host of other currencies, making imports from those countries more expensive for Americans, even before tariffs are applied.

自从美国总统特朗普几周前宣布将对几乎所有国家的进口商品征收关税以来，美元的跌幅尤其显著。美元对欧元、日元、英镑和其他几种货币的汇率都出现了下跌，让美国从这些国家进口商品的价格提高，而且这还是在关税实际征收之前。

Investors and many of Mr. Trump’s advisers had expected the dollar to strengthen as tariffs were put in place, given the conventional wisdom that the levies would discourage Americans from purchasing imported goods and in turn reduce the demand for foreign currency. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, argued that the dollar’s appreciation would be significant enough to offset a rise in inflation.

投资者和特朗普的许多顾问们原本预测，随着关税政策的实施，美元会升值，因为传统观念认为，关税会抑制美国人购买进口商品，进而减少对外国货币的需求。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾提出，美元的升值幅度将大到足以抵消通货膨胀上升的影响。

In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Mr. Bessent sought to push back on concerns about the recent weakening of the dollar, saying it was still “strong” and the “global reserve currency.”

周一接受彭博新闻社采访时，贝森特试图淡化人们对近期美元贬值的担忧，称美元仍然“坚挺”，仍然是“全球的储备货币”。

But the magnitude of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has announced has been more substantial than many expected, unleashing turbulence acute enough to raise questions about whether U.S. assets have lost their luster. On multiple days in recent weeks, when the dollar was selling off, so were U.S. stocks and government bonds, a combination that Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, described as “rare, ugly and worrying.”

但特朗普宣布的关税规模远超许多人的预期，引发了剧烈动荡，足以让人们怀疑美国资产是否已失去了光彩。最近几周已出现了多个投资者抛售美元的交易日，美国股市和政府债券也同步下跌。Evercore ISI副董事长克里希纳·古哈称这种同时抛售的情况“罕见、危险，令人担忧”。

In part, the turmoil reflects the confusion about Mr. Trump’s plans for tariffs. Mixed messages about exemptions and pauses, and which products and countries might be hit with new tariffs, have rattled investors who have long seen dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds as the surest thing in finance.

在一定程度上，这种动荡反映了人们对特朗普征收关税的计划存在的困惑。关于豁免和暂停关税的信息相互矛盾，以及哪些商品和哪些国家可能会受到新关税打击的问题让投资者紧张不安，他们曾长期将美国国债等以美元计价的资产视为最稳妥的金融产品。

“Both institutional investors and central banks are having to begin to think about what would happen should the dollar and the Treasury market no longer be the safe haven,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM.

“机构投资者和各国央行都不得不开始思考，如果美元和美国国债市场不再是避风港的话，将会发生什么，”咨询公司RSM的首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏拉斯说。

Sharp moves in the value of the dollar can have a destabilizing effect on the global economy, because it serves as a central pillar of the financial system. The dollar is on one side of nearly 90 percent of all foreign-exchange trades, according to the Bank for International Settlements, from Americans abroad using their credit cards to large corporations making billion-dollar takeovers. Essential commodities, like oil, are also typically priced in dollars, regardless of who is buying or selling.

美元是金融体系的核心支柱，币值的大幅波动可能会对全球经济造成破坏性的影响。据国际清算银行的数据，在所有用外汇进行的交易中——小到美国人在海外使用信用卡，大到大型企业在海外进行数十亿美元的收购——近90%的交易一方用的是美元。石油等必需的大宗商品通常也以美元计价，无论买卖双方是谁。

Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who previously worked at the Treasury Department, said there were reasons not to read too much into the dollar’s sell-off.

美国外交关系委员会高级研究员、曾供职于财政部的布拉德·塞策表示，有充分理由不对美元的跌势做过分解读。

For nearly a decade, U.S. assets have been among the best performers in the world — consider the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to a series of record highs.

近十年来，美国资产一直是世界上表现最好的资产之一——想想推动标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数屡创新高的“七巨头”科技股吧。

“A lot of the money coming into the U.S. hasn’t been coming to the U.S. seeking safety. It’s been coming to the U.S. seeking yield and chasing the run-up in U.S. equities,” he said.

“很多进入美国的资金并不是为了寻求安全。而是来美国寻求收益，追逐美国股市的上涨行情，”他说。

“In that context,” he added, “when there’s a general move to reduce risk — because the world certainly seems a lot riskier after Trump’s tariff announcement — some of that money that was betting on U.S. outperformance and the U.S. continuing to offer outsized returns is being unwound.”

“在这种背景下，”他还说，“当人们普遍采取行动降低风险时——因为在特朗普宣布关税后，世界看起来确实风险大增——一些原本押注美国表现优异、美国会持续提供超高回报的资金正在撤出。”

Economists now see much higher odds of a recession in the United States because of escalating trade tensions. That may mean the Fed will be compelled at some point to start lowering interest rates to protect the labor market. Lower rates make holding dollar-denominated assets less appealing, which could put more pressure on the currency. While the bar for future cuts appears high given that inflation is poised to rise as growth slows, signs that the economy is hurtling toward a recession could change the central bank’s approach.

经济学家现在认为，由于贸易紧张局势不断升级，美国经济衰退的可能性大大增加。这可能意味着美联储将在某个时候不得不开始降低利率，以保护就业市场。利率降低会使持有以美元计价的资产吸引力下降，这可能会给美元带来更大压力。考虑到随着经济增长放缓，通胀很可能上升，未来降息的门槛似乎很高，但经济正迅速滑向衰退的迹象可能会改变央行的决策。

If that transpired, Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, would support cutting rates “sooner and to a greater extent” than initially expected, he said on Monday. In a speech, he also acknowledged the turbulence caused by Mr. Trump’s tariffs, saying it was an “understatement to say that financial markets did not respond well” to them.

美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周一表示，如果发生这种情况，他将支持比最初预期“更早、更大程度”的降息。在一次演讲中，他还承认特朗普的关税造成了动荡，并表示说“金融市场对关税的反应不佳都算是客气了”。

The dollar would be destabilized further if Mr. Trump sought to undermine the independence of the Fed, which sets interest rates free from political influence. Mr. Bessent said on Monday that monetary policy was a “jewel box that’s got to be preserved.”

如果特朗普试图破坏美联储的独立性，美元将进一步变得不稳定。正是美联储的独立性使利率不受政治影响。贝森特周一表示，货币政策是一个“必须妥善守护的珠宝盒”。

Mr. Trump will have a chance to pick a new chair of the Fed after Jerome H. Powell’s term expires in May 2026. The administration will begin that process in the fall, Mr. Bessent said.

在杰罗姆·鲍威尔2026年5月任期届满后，特朗普将有机会挑选新的美联储主席。贝森特说，政府将在今年秋季启动这一进程。

But even Mr. Setser acknowledged that there might be something more fundamentally worrying to the dollar’s slide than simply a shift in expectations about the economic outlook.

但就连塞策也承认，美元的下跌可能有一些更根本、更令人担忧的因素，而不仅仅是对经济前景预期的转变。

“It is not crazy to think that after a period of exceptional policy volatility in the United States and with real risk of recession, that some foreign investors might wonder whether they should continue to put an ever increasing amount of money into the United States,” he said.

“在美国经历了一段时期异乎寻常的政策波动，面临真正的经济衰退风险之后，一些外国投资者可能会怀疑是否应该继续向美国投入更多资金，这种想法并非毫无道理，”他说。