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莫迪访问俄罗斯,彰显西方孤立普京策略失败

PAUL SONNE, ANUPREETA DAS

2024年7月10日

莫迪与普京在户外散步时交谈。 Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik, via Reuters

They hugged and strolled under the trees. They sipped tea and exchanged thoughts for hours. They petted horses together at the stables.

他们拥抱在一起,在树下散步。他们喝着茶交流思想,一聊就是几个小时。他们一起在马厩里抚摸着马匹。 

The jovial scenes between President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, captured during the Indian leader’s first visit to Russia in five years, illustrated a sobering reality.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪五年来首次访问俄罗斯期间,俄罗斯总统普京与他相处的欢乐场景反映了一个令人警醒的现实。

Despite the West’s campaign to isolate Russia over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, other nations have pursued their own interests with regard to Moscow, helping Mr. Putin shore up the Russian economy and continue to wage his war. India, which has close ties to the United States, has emerged as the second-biggest importer of Russian oil after China in the years since the invasion.

尽管西方因俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰而采取了孤立俄罗斯的行动,但其他国家在莫斯科问题上追求自己的利益,帮助普京支撑了俄罗斯的经济并继续发动战争。俄罗斯入侵几年后,与美国关系密切的印度已成为仅次于中国的第二大俄罗斯石油进口国。

Mr. Modi’s state visit, which began late Monday with a trip to Mr. Putin’s residence outside Moscow, underscored the point. At the Kremlin on Tuesday, Mr. Putin awarded Mr. Modi the Order of St. Andrew, the Russian government’s highest civilian honor, expressing “sincere gratitude” for his contribution to relations between their states.

莫迪的国事访问突显了这一点。周一晚间,莫迪此行的第一站是前往普京在莫斯科郊外的住所。周二,普京将俄罗斯政府的最高民事荣誉圣安德列勋章授予莫迪,对他为两国关系做出的贡献表示“衷心感谢”。

“We have had two and a half years now of endless Russian atrocities, and most of the world is not daunted or uncomfortable maintaining some kind of business as usual with Moscow,” said Andrew S. Weiss, the vice president for studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That’s a really sad commentary on Russia’s continued geopolitical weight.”

“两年半以来,俄罗斯的暴行无休无止,而世界上大多数国家与莫斯科维持某种一如既往的关系,并不感到畏怯或不安,”总部位于华盛顿的卡内基国际和平基金会负责研究的副会长安德鲁·韦斯说。“这是俄罗斯持续地缘政治影响力的一个令人痛心的注解。”

While Mr. Modi was hugging the Russian leader late Monday, rescue workers and volunteers in Kyiv were clearing away rubble from a Russian strike on Ukraine’s biggest pediatric hospital. Images of children outside the destroyed medical facility with their IVs still attached, or in some cases covered in blood, wrenched a nation that has been exhausted by more than two years of Russian bombardment.

周一晚间,莫迪与普京拥抱的同时,基辅的救援人员和志愿者正在清理俄罗斯空袭乌克兰最大儿科医院后留下的瓦砾。在被摧毁的医疗设施外,孩子们身上还挂着静脉注射器,有些孩子浑身是血,这些画面令这个在俄罗斯两年多来的轰炸中精疲力竭的国家心如刀绞。

“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote on X.

“在这样的日子里,看到世界上最大民主国家的领导人在莫斯科拥抱世界上最血腥的罪犯,让人大失所望,也是对和平努力的一次毁灭性的打击,”乌克兰总统泽连斯基在X上写道

09russia modi 02 bmlj master1050周二,印度总理莫迪和俄罗斯总统普京在克里姆林宫。

The state visit was also juxtaposed against the gathering of NATO countries on Tuesday in Washington, where they discussed continued support for Ukraine.

就在这次国事访问的同时,北约国家于周二在华盛顿开会,讨论继续支持乌克兰的问题。

Western governments have failed to persuade India and many other governments around the world to take a public position against Mr. Putin’s war. Mr. Modi has avoided condemning Russia’s invasion and instead issued general calls for peace, maintaining the warm relations with Moscow that India has cultivated since the days of the Cold War.

西方政府未能说服印度和世界上许多其他国家的政府公开反对普京的战争。莫迪没有谴责俄罗斯的入侵,而是发出了普遍性的和平呼吁,维持了印度自冷战时期以来与莫斯科建立起来的友好关系。

The Indian leader said he had discussed Ukraine with Mr. Putin at his residence, agreeing on the need for peace as soon as possible.

这位印度领导人说,他在官邸与普京讨论了乌克兰问题,双方一致认为有必要尽快实现和平。

“Any person who believes in humanity feels pain when people die, and especially when innocent children die,” Mr. Modi said Tuesday, a possible implicit reference to the hospital attack. “When we feel such pain, the heart simply explodes, and I had the opportunity to talk about these issues with you yesterday.”

周二,莫迪表示,“任何相信人性的人都会在有人死亡的时候感到痛苦,尤其是无辜儿童死亡的时候。”他的话可能是指医院袭击事件。“当我们感受到这样的痛苦时,我们的心就会爆炸,昨天我有机会和你谈论了这些问题。”

The state visit offered still more evidence that Mr. Putin has managed to avoid the pariah status Western leaders tried to force on him after the invasion. Mr. Putin has maintained a robust diplomatic schedule holding two meetings with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in two months, along with meeting the leaders of Vietnam, Hungary, Belarus and the nations of Central Asia,

这次国事访问提供了更多的证据,表明普京成功地避免了西方领导人在俄罗斯入侵后试图强加给他的被抛弃者地位。普京一直保持着忙碌的外交日程,在两个月内与中国领导人习近平举行了两次会晤,还会见了越南匈牙利、白俄罗斯和中亚国家的领导人。

On Tuesday, Indian officials said that the two countries had struck various agreements to strengthen economic ties, with the goal of reaching $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

周二,印度官员表示,两国已就加强经济关系达成了多项协议,目标是到2030年双边贸易额达到1000亿美元。

Russia and India also said they would strengthen their military cooperation, including manufacturing more weapon spare parts and units in India. They pledged to continue developing national payment systems, which allow Russia to conduct trade outside U.S. dollars and away from platforms impacted by Western sanctions.

俄罗斯和印度还表示,他们将加强军事合作,包括在印度制造更多的武器零部件。他们承诺继续发展国家支付系统,使俄罗斯能够在美元之外进行贸易,远离受西方制裁影响的平台。

Mr. Modi, who said he had met Mr. Putin 17 times over the course of the past decade, invited Mr. Putin to visit India next year.

莫迪表示,过去10年里,他与普京见过17次面。他邀请普京明年访问印度。

“Russia is India’s true friend,” Mr. Modi said at a meeting with members of the Indian community in Moscow, according to the Russian state news agency Tass.

据俄罗斯官方通讯社塔斯社报道,莫迪在莫斯科会见印度社区成员时说,“俄罗斯是印度真正的朋友。”

09russia modi lqzb master1050一名外科医生在被俄罗斯导弹击中的儿童医院搜寻幸存者,他穿着沾满鲜血的手术服,帮助清理废墟。

While India imported little Russian crude before the invasion of Ukraine, the nation has since risen to become the No. 2 importer of Russian oil after China, helping fill the Kremlin’s coffers despite a Western ban on most Russian oil imports. In many cases, India has been refining Russian crude and re-exporting it to European nations that are subject to the ban, giving it a lucrative middleman role .

尽管在入侵乌克兰之前印度进口的俄罗斯原油很少,但自那以后,印度已成为仅次于中国的第二大俄罗斯石油进口国,尽管西方禁止从俄罗斯进口大部分石油,但印度还是帮助充实了克里姆林宫的国库。印度还频频将使用俄罗斯原油提炼的产品出口到受禁令限制的欧洲国家,成为利润丰厚的中间商

Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesman, told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. has “been quite clear about our concerns” about India’s relationship with Russia, and has related them “privately, directly to the Indian government” — including within the past 24 hours. “We continue to urge India to support efforts to realize an enduring and just peace in Ukraine,” he said.

国务院发言人马修·米勒周二告诉记者,对于印度与俄罗斯的关系,美国“非常清楚地表达了我们的担忧”,并“私下向印度政府直接”提出了这些担忧”——包括在过去24小时内。“我们继续敦促印度支持在乌克兰实现持久和公正和平的努力,”他说。

Mr. Modi said Tuesday that as a friend, he had always told Mr. Putin that peace was a prerequisite for future generations to have a bright future.

周二,莫迪表示,作为朋友,他一直告诉普京,和平是子孙后代拥有光明未来的先决条件。

“That is why we believe that war is not a solution,” he said. “There can be no solution through war. Bombs, missiles and rifles cannot ensure peace. That is why we emphasize dialogue.”

“所以我们才认为战争不是解决办法,”他说。“通过战争解决不了问题。炸弹、导弹和步枪不能确保和平。所以我们才强调对话。”

India has a long history of friendly relations with Moscow. The Soviet Union and later Russia for decades supplied much of India’s arms and military equipment, though that reliance has decreased in recent years, in part because of pressure from the United States.

印度与莫斯科之间的友好关系由来已久。几十年来,印度的大部分武器和军事装备都是由苏联和后来的俄罗斯提供的,尽管近年来这种依赖有所减少,部分原因是来自美国的压力。

“This has been a time-tested relationship, and there is a consensus in India, regardless of political orientation, that the relationship with Russia is one to be preserved and not squandered,” said Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of political science at City College.

“这是一种经受了时间考验的关系,在印度,无论政治倾向如何,都有一种共识,那就是与俄罗斯的关系应该得到维护,而不是被浪费,”城市学院政治学名誉教授拉詹·梅农说。

09russia modi 01 bmlj master1050普京和莫迪参观俄罗斯核电工业展览。

Mr. Putin has cast his invasion of Ukraine as an anti-imperial struggle against an encroaching West, and that message has resonated in parts of the developing world that once lived under Western colonialism. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted this year, just 16 percent of respondents in India expressed unfavorable views of Russia, compared with 46 percent who voiced positive associations.

普京把入侵乌克兰的行动说成是对抗西方侵蚀的反帝国主义斗争,这一信息在曾经生活在西方殖民主义统治下的部分发展中国家引起了共鸣。根据皮尤研究中心今年进行的一项民意调查,只有16%的印度受访者对俄罗斯持负面看法,相比之下,46%的受访者对俄罗斯持正面看法。

During his talks with Mr. Putin, Mr. Modi sought the early discharge of all Indian nationals who were recruited by the Russian army under “false pretenses,” according to government officials. The contentious issue had introduced a sour note in the countries’ friendly relations. Mr. Putin agreed to the discharge of those citizens, who India has said number between 35 and 50.

据政府官员称,在与普京的会谈中,莫迪要求俄罗斯尽早遣散被“诱骗”至军中的印度国民。这个争议性问题给两国的友好关系带来了不快。普京同意将这些印度公民除役,印度称有35到50人属于此类情况。

Mr. Menon predicted that India would continue to cultivate deeper ties with the United States over the long term, but not at a cost of having to choose sides.

梅农预计,从长远来看,印度将继续深化与美国的关系,但不会以必须选边站为代价。

“Anyone who expects you can peel India off and put it in the U.S. column — that is not going to happen,” he said. “Would you rather be completely dependent on the United States or Russia, or have a position of maneuverability between the two?”

“把印度剥离出来,让它加入美国的阵营,这种事是不可能发生的,”他说。“你愿意完全依赖美国或俄罗斯,还是在两者之间找一个灵活机动的位置?”

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