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解读印度大选:莫迪再次连任,但不再不可战胜

ALEX TRAVELLI

2024年6月5日

胜选后的莫迪在印度人民党总部向支持者发表讲话。 Atul Loke for The New York Times

Narendra Modi’s first decade as India’s prime minister came with its fair share of surprises. None, however, looked anything like what happened on Tuesday morning when he won his second re-election, but lost his party’s majority in Parliament.

担任印度总理的第一个十年里,纳伦德拉·莫迪面临了不少出人意料的事件,但没有一个能与周二早上的情况相比,他赢得了第二次连任,但失去了本党在议会的多数席位。

With that loss, Mr. Modi’s air of invincibility also appeared to be fading for the first time since he took office in 2014.

随着这次失利,莫迪自2014年上任以来不可战胜的气势似乎也首次出现消退。

The election results were especially shocking because, after nearly seven sweaty weeks of voting across the country, exit polls released just days before the final tally showed that Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party would win in a landslide, as it had twice before.

令这一结果格外出人意料的是,在经过全国近七周的紧张投票后,最终计票前几天,出口民调公布的结果显示莫迪领导的印度人民党将像之前两次一样,以压倒性优势获胜。

Instead, the Bharatiya Janata Party won only 239 seats, well short of the 272 needed to form a government. The opposition alliance, led by the Indian National Congress Party, took 235 seats.

结果印度人民党只赢得了239个席位,远远低于组建政府所需的272个席位。由印度国民大会党领导的反对派联盟获得了235个席位。

With the 52 seats won by B.J.P. allies, Mr. Modi will remain on top. But his allure has been diminished, and his leadership has fundamentally changed.

人民党联盟赢得了52个席位,莫迪仍将保持领先地位。但他的吸引力已经减弱,他的领导力也发生了根本性的变化。

Modi’s air of invincibility was punctured.

莫迪不可战胜的气势被戳破了。

When Mr. Modi came to power in 2014, he promised economic progress, an end to corruption and to promote Hinduism as being central to India’s identity. Through it all, he presented himself as a uniquely strong leader, capable of marshaling his followers to work for the nation.

2014年上台时,莫迪承诺经济发展、结束腐败,并推动印度教成为印度身份的核心。通过这一切,他将自己展现为一位独特而强大的领导者,能够调动追随者为国家工作。

04india election takeaways 02 mlzh master1050计票现场的国大党支持者。

This was in contrast to the previous government. Before Mr. Modi was first elected, India spent 25 years being governed by coalitions. Prime ministers from the Congress Party, the B.J.P. and smaller third parties took turns running India by committee. Mr. Modi broke with that tradition, leading a new single-party system dominated by the B.J.P.

这与上一届政府形成了鲜明对比。在莫迪首次当选之前,印度经历了25年的联盟统治。国大党、人民党和较小的第三党派的总理轮流通过委员会管理印度。莫迪打破了这一传统,领导了一个由人民党主导的新一党制。

As leader, Mr. Modi showed little interest in sharing power. When he invalidated most of India’s paper currency in 2016, not even his finance minister knew about the decision in advance. When he decided to impose martial law on Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state, he presented the plan to Parliament as a done deal, without seeking approval.

作为领导人,莫迪对分享权力几乎没有兴趣。2016年,当他宣布印度大部分纸币作废时,甚至连财政部长事先都不知道这一决定。当他决定对印度唯一的穆斯林占多数的邦查谟和克什米尔实施戒严时,他向议会提交了这项计划,称其为既成事实,没有寻求批准。

But those days are over.

但那些日子已经一去不复返了。

The two biggest parties that have emerged as the B.J.P. ’s new coalition partners are led by N. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, veteran lawmakers who are known as technocratic moderates. Both are likely to demand greater authority in Parliament. In fact, both have been eyed as possible candidates for prime minister, if there were to be another coalition led by neither the B.J.P. nor the Congress.

成为印度人民党新联盟合作伙伴的两个最大政党由N·钱德拉巴布·奈杜和尼蒂什·库玛尔领导,他们是资深议员,以作为技术官僚温和派而闻名。两人都可能要求在议会中获得更大的权力。事实上,如果出现另一个既非印度人民党、也非国大党领导的联盟,两人都被视为可能的总理候选人。

India’s political map was remade overnight.

一夜之间,印度的政治版图改头换面。

When the first nationwide electoral maps showing the number of seats gained and lost in Parliament were revealed on Tuesday, they showed a striking new pattern.

周二,首批显示议会席位增减的全国选举地图公布,从中可以看到一个惊人的新模式。

The maps showed that Mr. Modi’s party lost swaths of territory across states in the Hindi-speaking north that were considered B.J.P. strongholds.

地图显示,莫迪的政党在讲印地语的北部各邦失去了大片选区,而这些邦被认为是印度人民党的据点。

At the same time, the B.J.P. made inroads in regions that had resisted Mr. Modi in the past. He lost dozens of seats in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, but he gained plenty in the eastern state of Odisha and the southern state of Telangana.

与此同时,印度人民党在过去曾抵制莫迪的地区取得了进展。他在北部的北方邦失去了数十个席位,但在东部的奥里萨邦和南部的特伦甘纳邦获得了大量席位。

The only part of the country that now looks unified by one party is the “tribal belt,” which weaves across the central states. Its relatively poor communities have been skillfully targeted by the B.J.P.’s Hindu-first politics and welfare benefits.

目前,印度唯一一个看起来由一个政党统一起来的地区是“部落地带”,它横跨中部各邦。印度人民党针对该地带相对贫困社区精心制定了印度教优先的政治和福利政策。

04india election takeaways 03 mlzh master1050选举地图显示,莫迪的政党在讲印地语的北部各邦失去了大片选区,而这些地区曾被认为是印度人民党的据点。

India’s Wall Street twisted and turned.

印度华尔街跌宕起伏

Investors in India’s stock markets in Mumbai responded eagerly to the early exit polls. On Monday, they went on a buying spree, driving up the prices of so-called Modi stocks, those associated with the prime minister’s spending priorities or thought to benefit from his fiscal policies.

印度孟买股票市场的投资者对早期的民意调查作出了热切的反应。周一,他们疯狂买入,推高了所谓莫迪股票的价格,这些股票与总理的支出重点有关,或被认为将受益于总理的财政政策。

When the actual vote results were counted, those stocks came crashing down. Shares in the Adani Group’s flagship stock lost about 19 percent of their value in one day of trading. The blue-chip index lost about 6 percent, nearly wiping out its gains from the first five months of the year.

实际投票结果出来后,股价一泻千里阿达尼集团的旗舰股票在一天的交易中损失了约19%的价值。蓝筹股指数下跌了约6%,几乎抹平了今年前五个月的涨幅

Mr. Modi remains popular with India’s business tycoons, but investors need to find out which companies will stand to benefit from a new government.

莫迪仍然受到印度商界大亨的欢迎,但投资者需要弄清楚哪些公司将从新政府中获益。

Chris Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, an investment bank, warned last year that if Mr. Modi were to lose he “would expect a 25 percent correction, if not more” in the Indian stock market. Historically, Indian companies have done just as well during periods of coalition government. So, Mr. Wood said, even without Mr. Modi in power, he expects stocks to “bounce back sharply” based on the strength of the country’s economy as a whole.

投资银行杰富瑞的股票策略全球主管克里斯·伍德去年警告,如果莫迪落选,他“预计印度股市将出现25%的回调,甚至更多”。从历史上看,印度公司在联合政府执政期间的表现同样出色。因此,伍德说,即使莫迪不再掌权,基于印度经济的整体实力,他预计股市也会“大幅反弹”。

Coalition politics are back — expect a game of musical chairs.

联盟政治又回来了,将会有一场抢椅子游戏。

This new era in Parliament is sure to begin with a few rounds of political retribution. Politicians who failed to deliver seats for their bosses will be shown the door. Smaller parties are likely to demand cabinet positions, which will mean replacing members of the B.J.P.

议会的新时代必将以几轮政治报复开始。未能为他们的上司赢得席位的政治人士将被扫地出门。小党派可能会要求获得内阁职位,这将意味着替换人民党的成员。

04india election takeaways 04 mlzh master1050看到初步选举结果后,在人民党总部外庆祝的该党支持者。莫迪称这次选举是“民主的庆典”。

Policies will need to be revised. Will India lean into export manufacturing, aiming to replace China as the world’s factory? Will it move to protect local industries that fear foreign competition?

政策需要修订。印度是否会向出口制造业倾斜,以取代中国成为世界工厂?印度是否会保护害怕外国竞争的本地产业?

Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cautioned that India cannot exactly return to the coalition politics that preceded Mr. Modi. His new partners are likely to make demands that match the authoritarian style Mr. Modi exercises from New Delhi.

卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员米兰·瓦伊什纳夫警告称,印度不可能完全回到莫迪之前的联盟政治。他的新合作伙伴可能也会提出一些专断的要求,和莫迪在新德里发号施令的风格一样。

The kind of state leaders he now needs as coalition partners “are just as absolutist as the national government,” Mr. Vaishnav said. They could, for instance, call for federal police agencies to arrest opponents, as Mr. Modi has done.

瓦伊什纳夫说,他现在需要的那种作为联盟伙伴的邦领导人应该“和国家政府一样专制”。例如,他们可以要求联邦警察机构逮捕反对者,莫迪就是这样做的。

India’s election was the biggest conducted in the history of democracy, with more than 600 million voters casting ballots in six phases. This time, there were no complaints about the electronic voting machines, or fears that India had become a dictatorship under Mr. Modi.

印度大选是民主历史上规模最大的一次选举,六亿多选民分六个阶段投票。这一次,没有人抱怨电子投票机,也没有人担心印度在莫迪的领导下会变成一个独裁国家。

In a difficult speech delivered on Tuesday night from the B.J.P. headquarters, Mr. Modi called the election a “celebration of democracy.”

周二晚上,莫迪在人民党总部发表了一场艰难的讲话,称这次选举是“民主的庆典”。

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