Xi Jinping has been preparing for this moment for years.

习近平为这一刻已经准备多时。

In April 2020, long before President Trump launched a trade war that would shake the global economy, China’s top leader held a meeting with senior Communist Party officials and laid out his vision for turning the tables on the United States in a confrontation.

2020年4月，远在特朗普总统发动一场将震动全球经济的贸易战之前，这位中国最高领导人召集党内高级干部举行了一次会议，阐述了他通过一场对抗来扭转对美态势的想法。

Tensions between his government and the first Trump administration had been simmering over an earlier round of tariffs and technology restrictions. Things got worse after the emergence of Covid, which ground global trade to a halt and exposed how much the United States, and the rest of the world, needed China for everything from surgical masks to pain medicines.

由于之前的一轮关税和技术限制，习近平的政府与特朗普第一届政府之间的紧张关系已经不断加剧。新冠疫情出现后，情况变得更糟。疫情使全球贸易陷入停顿，也暴露出美国乃至世界其他国家从外科口罩到止痛药等各个方面对中国的依赖。

Faced with Washington’s concerns about the trade imbalance, China could have opened its economy to more foreign companies, as it had pledged to do decades ago. It could have bought more American airplanes, crude oil and soybeans, as its officials had promised Mr. Trump during trade talks. It could have stopped subsidizing factories and state-owned companies that made steel and solar panels so cheaply that many American manufacturers went out of business.

面对华盛顿对贸易不平衡的担忧，中国本可以像几十年前所承诺的那样，向更多外国公司开放其经济。它本可以像其官员在贸易谈判中向特朗普承诺的那样，购买更多美国的飞机、原油和大豆。它本可以停止补贴那些生产钢铁和太阳能电池板的工厂和国有企业，这些企业的产品价格低廉，导致许多美国制造商倒闭。

Instead, Mr. Xi chose an aggressive course of action.

然而，习近平选择了一条强硬路线。

Chinese leaders must “tighten international production chains’ dependence on our country, forming a powerful capacity to counter and deter foreign parties from artificially disrupting supplies” to China, Mr. Xi said in his speech to the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission in 2020.

2020年在中央财经委员会会议上讲话时，他表示中国领导人必须“拉紧国际产业链对我国的依存关系，形成对外方人为断供的强有力反制和威慑能力”。

Put simply: China should dominate supplies of things the world needs, to make its adversaries think twice about using tariffs or trying to cut China off.

简而言之，中国应该主导世界所需物资的供应，让对手在使用关税或试图切断与中国的经济联系有所顾忌。

去年，宁波舟山港码头的工人，这里是世界上最繁忙的港口之一。

Mr. Xi has ramped up exports and deepened China’s position as the world’s leading base for manufacturing, in part by directing the state-controlled commercial banking system to lend an extra $2 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years, according to data from China’s central bank. He has also introduced new weapons of economic warfare to the country’s arsenal: export controls, antimonopoly laws and blacklists for hitting back at American companies.

习近平推动了出口的增长，并巩固了中国作为全球首屈一指的制造业基地的地位，这在一定程度上是因为他指示国有商业银行系统在过去四年里增加向工业借款人的贷款，从中国央行的数据看，增幅达到了约14万亿元人民币。他还为本国增加了一些新的经济战手段：出口管制、反垄断法以及打击美国公司的黑名单。

So when the current Trump administration slapped huge tariffs on Chinese goods, China was able to go on the offensive. Besides retaliating with its own taxes, it imposed export restrictions on a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, the global supply of which China had cornered. Such minerals are essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles.

这样一来，当本届特朗普政府对中国商品征收巨额关税时，中国就可以采取攻势了。除了以加征关税进行报复外，中国还对一系列关键矿物和磁体实施了出口限制，中国在这些产品的全球供应中占据了主导地位。这些矿物对于组装从汽车、无人机到机器人和导弹等各种产品都至关重要。

In the United States, the looming threat of empty store shelves and higher consumer prices is putting pressure on the Trump administration. The prices of some critical minerals have tripled since China unveiled its curbs, according to Argus Media, a London commodities research firm.

在美国，货架空空和消费者物价上涨的紧迫威胁给特朗普政府带来了压力。据伦敦大宗商品研究公司阿格斯媒体称，自中国公布限制措施以来，一些关键矿产的价格已经涨了两倍。

上个月，新泽西州泰特伯勒的一家沃尔玛门店。

“It’s about flipping the leverage so that the world is reliant on China, and China is reliant on no one. It is a reversal of what Xi has been so irritated about, which is that China was so dependent on the West,” said Kirsten Asdal, a former intelligence adviser at the U.S. Department of Defense who now heads a China-focused consultancy firm, Asdal Advisory.

美国国防部前情报顾问、现负责专注于中国的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询的柯尔斯顿·阿斯达尔表示：“这是为了反转力量的天平，让世界依赖中国，而中国不依赖任何国家。这是要扭转习近平一直以来不满的局面，即中国曾如此依赖西方。”

China still relies on the West for many advanced technologies like high-end semiconductors and aircraft engines. But its willingness to weaponize the supply chain may be one of the starkest examples of how Mr. Xi is redefining China’s relationship with the world and challenging the supremacy of the United States like no Chinese leader before him.

在许多先进技术方面，如高端半导体和航空发动机等，中国仍然依赖西方。但将供应链作为武器的意愿可能是习近平重新定义中国与世界的关系、以前所未有的方式挑战美国霸权的最鲜明例证之一。

Making the World Choose Sides

让世界选边站

Even though they are now starting talks that American officials say are aimed at de-escalating tensions, the two nations seem set on a no-holds-barred competition, particularly over crucial technologies that will shape the future, like artificial intelligence.

尽管美中两国现在已经开始对话——美国官员称该对话旨在缓和紧张局势——两国似乎仍在进行一场毫无保留的竞争，特别是在人工智能等塑造未来的关键技术领域。

去年，中国宁波的一条电动车生产线。

Their rivalry may start cleaving the world into competing spheres of influence. With the United States pushing other countries to restrict trade with China, and Beijing warning that it will punish nations that do so, the pressure to choose sides is mounting.

它们之间的竞争可能会开始将世界分裂成相互竞争的势力范围。美国推动其他国家限制与中国的贸易，而北京警告称将惩罚那些这么做的国家，选边站的压力与日俱增。

“China will use any and all tools at its disposal to cause pain and impose costs on the U.S. and any country that aligns with America,” said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama.

乔治敦大学亚洲研究教授、曾担任奥巴马总统亚洲事务顾问的麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)表示：“中国将动用一切可用的手段，给美国以及任何与美国结盟的国家造成痛苦，让它们付出代价。”

“The entire world,” Mr. Medeiros continued, “is about to learn the answer to a very important question: how reliant are we on trade with China and how much is it worth to us?”

麦艾文还说，“整个世界即将得到一个非常重要问题的答案：我们对与中国的贸易依赖程度有多高，这种贸易对我们来说价值几何？”

Already, the Trump administration has shown that it cannot completely sever trade ties with Beijing. It exempted Chinese smartphones, semiconductors and other electronics from some of its tariffs. Mr. Trump also walked back tariffs on carmakers. China, too, has quietly indicated that it might exclude some semiconductors, lifesaving drugs and other health care products from its 125 percent tariffs on American goods.

特朗普政府已经表明它无法完全切断与北京的贸易关系。特朗普政府豁免了中国智能手机、半导体和其他电子产品的部分关税。特朗普还取消了对汽车制造商的关税。中国也悄悄表示可能会将一些半导体、关乎生死的药物和其他医疗产品排除在对美国商品征收的125%关税范围之外。

中国南昌的一家半导体工厂。

Still, the barrage of tariffs strikes at the heart of China’s growth engine. Exports have been one of the only bright spots in an economy badly weakened by a property crisis and sagging consumer confidence. If the trade war drags on, it could result in millions of lost jobs in China, analysts estimate.

尽管如此，一连串的关税打击了中国经济增长引擎的核心。房地产危机和消费者信心下降严重削弱了中国经济，出口一直是其中为数不多的亮点之一。分析人士估计，如果贸易战持续下去，中国可能会失去数百万个工作岗位。

‘Never Kneel Down!’

“不跪！”

Mr. Xi has said for years that the United States is bent on thwarting China’s rise, and the trade war appears to have validated his warnings.

多年来习近平一直表示，美国一心想要阻挠中国的崛起，而这场贸易战似乎证实了他的警告。

He seems more inclined than ever to flex China’s muscles, analysts say, viewing the trade fight as a test of his authority as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. And his strategy reflects his perception that China is no longer weaker than the United States.

分析人士称，他似乎比以往任何时候都更乐于展示中国的实力，对他来说，这场贸易战考验的是他作为自毛泽东以来最有权力的中国领导人的权威。他的战略反映出他的一种认知，即中国不再比美国弱。

When he came to power in 2012, Mr. Xi pledged to pursue “the great renewal of the Chinese nation.” That ambition is at the core of the myth created around Mr. Xi: that he is a transformative figure restoring China’s glory, reversing a century of humiliation by foreign powers.

2012年上台时，习近平承诺追求“中华民族伟大复兴”。这一雄心是围绕习近平所塑造的理念的核心：他是一位变革性人物，正在恢复中国的荣耀，扭转一个世纪以来外国列强带来的屈辱。

To accomplish his goals, Mr. Xi changed the rules to let himself stay in power indefinitely. He has made national security an all-of-society priority. He poured money into strategic industries, like semiconductors, that he thinks will help China better compete with the United States.

为实现目标，习近平修改了规则使自己能无限期掌权。他将国家安全列为全社会的首要任务。他向半导体等战略产业投入资金，认为这些产业将有助于中国更好地与美国竞争。

2017年，习近平与特朗普总统一同游览北京故宫。

China has expanded its dominance in lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles, cutting-edge robots for manufacturing, solar panels and wind turbines. Experts say China is also catching up with the United States in artificial intelligence, considered the battlefront of the next industrial revolution.

中国扩大了其在用于电动汽车的锂离子电池、先进的制造机器人、太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机等领域的主导地位。专家表示，在被视为下一次工业革命前沿的人工智能领域，中国也在追赶美国。

Mr. Xi also tightened his grip over China’s vast propaganda apparatus, which has ramped up in recent weeks to rally the public for a protracted “struggle.” The Foreign Ministry posted a video about the trade conflict on social media titled “Never Kneel Down!”

习近平还加强了对中国庞大宣传机构的控制，最近几周，宣传机构加紧动员民众参与一场持久的“斗争”。外交部在社交媒体上发布了一段关于贸易冲突的视频，标题为《不跪！》

“The trade war is the ultimate validation that Western hostile forces are trying to contain, suppress and encircle China,” Ms. Asdal said. “Xi is saying, ‘We have to be man enough and strong enough to fight back.’”

“这场贸易战最终证明，西方敌对势力试图遏制、打压和包围中国，”阿斯达尔说，“习近平的意思是，‘我们必须有足够的勇气和力量进行反击。’”

2012年，时任副主席的习近平访问加州南盖特的一间学校。他在当年晚些时候成为中国最高领导人。

Even if Mr. Xi ends up having to back down first, he could spin a tactical retreat as a win over Mr. Trump.

即使习近平最终不得不率先做出让步，他可能也会将战术性撤退粉饰成对特朗普的胜利。

“This concentration of authority allows the Chinese leader to make sweeping policy decisions unchallenged — and to reverse course just as swiftly,” Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a recent article for Foreign Affairs magazine.

外交关系委员会研究员刘宗媛最近在为《外交事务》杂志撰写的一篇文章中写道：“这种权力的集中使中国领导人能够毫无阻碍地做出全面的决策，同时也能随时改变这些策略。”

The Costs to China

中国付出的代价

It is not clear that Mr. Xi’s long-term strategy will make China strong enough to overtake the United States as the top superpower. The focus on critical technologies and economic self-reliance has worsened frictions with China’s trading partners, and it comes at a cost to many Chinese households.

目前尚不清楚习近平的长期战略是否能让中国强大到足以超越美国成为头号超级大国。对关键技术和经济自力更生的关注加剧了与中国贸易伙伴之间的摩擦，让许多中国家庭付出了代价。

American leaders used to say that if China expanded its economic links to the West, it would gradually move toward political liberalization and a full embrace of free markets. But China advanced on its own terms, blending its one-party authoritarian system with capitalism and growing richer without losing political control.

美国领导人过去常说，中国如果扩大与西方的经济联系，就会逐渐走向政治自由化并全面拥抱自由市场。但中国按照自己的方式发展，将一党制威权体系与资本主义相结合，在不失去政治控制的情况下变得更加富有。

Mr. Xi doubled down on that model, directing more capital to state-owned enterprises and banks to ensure the Communist Party had even more say over the economy’s direction. Entrepreneurs were once given space to grow, but under Mr. Xi, officials dictate which industries thrive and which go bust. A more open economy, driven by market demand and not political mandate, could have expanded the ranks, and the influence, of China’s businesses and middle-class consumers.

习近平强化了这种模式，将更多资金导向国有企业和银行，以确保共产党对经济方向有更大的话语权。企业家一度得到了发展的空间，但在习近平领导下，官员们决定哪些产业蓬勃发展，哪些走向破产。由市场需求而非政治指令驱动的更开放的经济本可以扩大中国企业和中产阶级消费者的规模及其影响力。

中国格尔木市的察尔汗盐湖，这里的盐水经过处理可以提取出锂以及其它矿物。

But that might have posed a challenge to the party’s control over society.

但这可能会挑战共产党对社会的控制。

“This is not an economy a statist government desires, and this is why underconsumption has long been recognized as a problem, even at the highest level of the government,” said Yasheng Huang, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management. But “there have not been comparable reforms,” he added.

“这不是一个集权政府所期望的经济，这就是为什么消费不足长期以来一直被视为一个问题，甚至在政府最高层也是如此，”麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院中国经济专家黄亚生表示说，“却没有进行相应的改革。”

Experts have long argued that spending on social welfare would make China’s economy more balanced and less vulnerable to the West. Chinese economists have urged the government to invest in hospitals and pensions, and to help the hundreds of millions of city-dwelling rural migrants qualify for urban benefits. Such steps are seen as crucial for encouraging ordinary Chinese citizens to save less and spend more, contributing more to the country’s growth.

长期以来，专家们一直认为，在社会福利方面的支出将使中国经济更加平衡，减少相对西方的脆弱性。中国经济学家敦促政府投资医院和养老金，并帮助数亿居住在城市的农民工获得城市福利资格。这些措施被视为鼓励普通中国公民减少储蓄、增加消费，为国家增长做出更多贡献的关键。

去年，购物者从深圳的一块户外大屏幕前走过，屏幕上在播放中国军队的宣传片。

Some experts are even questioning whether Mr. Xi should be challenging the United States so aggressively, rather than following the famous dictum of an earlier top leader, Deng Xiaoping: “Hide your strength, bide your time.”

一些专家甚至质疑，习近平是否应该如此激进地挑战美国，而不是遵循中国前最高领导人邓小平的名言：“韬光养晦。”

“China has become so ambitious without reaching superpower status yet,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar who focuses on U.S.-China ties.

专注于美中关系的上海学者沈丁立表示：“中国尚未达到超级大国的地位就变得如此雄心勃勃。”

Mr. Shen cited Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea; the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy; and the flood of Chinese exports that makes it hard for other countries to compete in trade. Taken together, they have alienated much of the world, contributing to what amounts to a reckoning for Mr. Xi.

沈丁立提到了北京对南海的广泛主张、香港自治权的削弱，以及大量使别国在贸易中难以竞争的中国出口产品。综合来看，这些因素疏远了世界上许多国家，也成了对习近平是非功过的一种清算。

China once had a “favorable external environment” for developing as a nation, but it has been “deteriorating,” Mr. Shen said. “It’s very regrettable.”

中国曾经有一个有利于国家发展的“良好外部环境”，但现在这个环境一直在“恶化”，沈丁立说。“这非常令人遗憾。”