Two decades ago, China shocked the United States with its ability to make and ship things fast and inexpensively on a scale never before seen. The resulting surge of exports reshaped America’s economy and its politics.

20年前，中国以其前所未有的快速、廉价的制造和运输能力震惊了美国。由此产生的出口激增重塑了美国的经济和政治。

Today, a new China shock is cascading across the globe from Indonesia to Germany to Brazil.

如今，从印度尼西亚到德国再到巴西，一场新的中国冲击正在席卷全球。

As President Trump’s tariffs start to shut China out of the United States, its biggest market, Chinese factories are sending their toys, cars and shoes to other countries at a pace that is reshaping economies and geopolitics.

随着特朗普总统的关税开始将中国挡在其最大市场美国之外，中国工厂正以一种正在重塑经济和地缘政治的速度将玩具、汽车和鞋子运往其他国家。

This year so far, China’s trade surplus with the world is nearly $500 billion — a more than 40 percent increase from the same period last year.

今年到目前为止，中国对世界的贸易顺差接近5000亿美元，比去年同期增长了40%以上。

As the world’s two superpowers duke it out over trade, the rest of the world is now bracing for an even bigger China shock.

随着世界上两个超级大国在贸易问题上展开较量，世界其他地区正准备迎接更大的中国冲击。

“China has loads of things that it needs to export, and whether or not the U.S. puts tariffs on China, it’s pretty much impossible to stop the shifts in flows,” said Leah Fahy, a China economist at Capital Economics.

“中国有很多东西需要出口，无论美国是否对中国征收关税，都几乎不可能阻止商品流动的变化，”凯投宏观的中国经济学家利亚·费伊说。

重庆的一条电动汽车装配线。与一年前相比，中国今年生产的电动汽车数量增加了45%。

The flood of exports from China is the consequence of government policy and a slowing domestic economy. To soften the blow of a real estate crisis that reduced the wealth of millions of households, Beijing has for several years been shoveling money into its manufacturing sectors, which are making far more things than there is demand for at home.

中国大量出口是政府政策和国内经济放缓的结果。房地产危机使数百万家庭的财富缩水，为了减轻危机的打击，北京多年来一直在向制造业投入大量资金，制造业生产的产品远远超过国内需求。

China’s global market share for all categories of goods has risen sharply, according to an analysis by Ms. Fahy. This will continue despite the tariffs because Beijing is unlikely to change the course of its export-oriented policies.

根据费伊的分析，中国在所有类别商品的全球市场份额都大幅上升。尽管征收了关税，这种情况仍将继续，因为北京不太可能改变其出口导向政策的方向。

By diverting the flow of its stuff to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe, China has already eased the economic effect of a plunge in demand from the United States. But it puts China in potential conflict with trading partners that are also facing pressure from Washington.

通过将其货物流向东南亚、拉丁美洲和欧洲，中国已缓解了美国需求急剧下降所带来的经济影响。但这将使中国与同样面临华盛顿压力的贸易伙伴发生潜在冲突。

Mr. Trump is threatening steep tariffs for the same countries that are being inundated with more Chinese goods, like Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia. Those tariffs have, for now, been put on pause for negotiations. Some countries have benefited from an increase in investment by foreign companies that are trying to shift production from China as quickly as possible.

特朗普威胁要对越南、柬埔寨和印度尼西亚等被更多中国商品淹没的国家征收高额关税。目前，这些关税已暂停，有待进一步谈判。一些国家因外国公司增加投资而受益，这些公司正试图尽快将生产从中国转移出去。

一艘装满集装箱的驳船停靠在武汉阳逻港，这是长江上的一个国内和国际货运港口。将出口产品流向其他国家有助于中国缓解美国需求骤降带来的影响。

Others have also been able to reship some Chinese goods by exporting them to the United States. But if they cannot negotiate the tariffs much lower, homegrown companies in countries facing severe U.S. tariffs in Southeast Asia and elsewhere could be crushed by competition from Chinese companies.

还有一些公司通过向美国出口来转运一些中国商品。但如果他们不能通过谈判大幅降低关税，东南亚和其他地区面临美国严重关税的国家的本土企业可能会被来自中国企业的竞争压垮。

As much as Mr. Trump has disrupted trade with tariff levels not seen in a century, the drastic shift in China’s exports was building long before he took office in January.

尽管特朗普以一个世纪未见的关税水平扰乱了贸易，但早在他今年1月上任之前，中国出口的急剧变化就已经在形成。

China’s property crisis — a glut of housing, plunging prices and widespread bankruptcies — began to reverberate through the economy in 2021. China’s policymakers wasted no time diverting cheap loans away from developers to exporters and manufacturers, a move that eventually offset the collapse in construction, which at its peak contributed to one-third of economic growth.

中国的房地产危机——住房过剩、价格暴跌和普遍破产——在2021年开始影响整个经济。中国的政策制定者不失时机地将低息贷款从开发商转移到出口商和制造商，此举最终抵消了建筑业的崩溃，建筑业在其鼎盛时期对中国经济增长的贡献达到三分之一。

2022年10月，中国南昌一个在建的住宅开发项目。

For Beijing, it was a tried-and-tested move: Throw money at the problem.

对北京来说，这是一个屡试不爽的举措：砸钱解决问题。

“They often overinvest to get the scale first, and then the process is aided by government policies,” said Tommy Wu, an economist at Commerzbank. “That contributes to why we have this problem today.”

“他们往往先进行过度投资以扩大规模，然后再通过政府政策来推动这一进程，”德国商业银行经济学家汤米·吴（音）表示。“这就是我们今天遇到这个问题的原因。”

China had already embarked on a domestic industrial policy in 2015, known as Made in China 2025, to make higher-skilled, more valuable goods like sophisticated computer chips and electric vehicles. That initiative led the United States and Europe to raise tariffs on electric cars, solar panels and other high-technology products.

中国在2015年启动了一项名为《中国制造2025》的国内产业政策，以生产技术含量更高、价值更高的产品，如精密电脑芯片和电动汽车。这一举措导致美国和欧洲提高了电动汽车、太阳能电池板和其他高科技产品的关税。

But China’s drive to boost manufacturing since the property market collapse has gone much further. Even while making more advanced products, Chinese manufacturers doubled down on making tchotchkes, the kinds of cheaper things that China excelled at making two decades ago. China rewrote the playbook, confounding economists.

但是，自房地产市场崩溃以来，中国推动制造业的努力走得更远。在制造更先进产品的同时，中国制造商也在加倍努力制造小商品，也就是中国20年前擅长制造的那些相对便宜的东西。中国改写了游戏规则，令经济学家感到困惑。

中国出口繁荣的部分原因是政府鼓励在制造业中使用先进技术的广泛政策。中国在大幅增加先进制造业投资同时，还加倍生产廉价商品，这令经济学家感到困惑。

“China is not developing the way economic theory suggests, and now we are faced with a new model,” said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore, referring to the traditional trajectory of economies that move away from low-end manufacturing as they become more mature and developed.

新加坡经济学家普里扬卡·基肖尔说：“中国并没有按照经济理论所建议的方式发展，现在我们面临着一种新的模式。”她所称的经济理论建议的方式是指，随着经济变得更加成熟和发达，传统的经济轨迹会逐渐摆脱低端制造业。

“This is a challenge because it exacerbates pressures on the rest of the world,” Ms. Kishore said.

“这是一个挑战，因为它加剧了世界其他地区的压力，”基肖尔说。

With tariffs starting to realign trade flows and supply chains, the economic effect is beginning to show.

随着关税开始重新调整贸易流动和供应链，经济效应开始显现。

In Germany, where shipments of Chinese goods last month rose 20 percent from a year earlier, companies have expressed concerns to Mr. Wu, the economist from Commerzbank. Carmakers feel it most acutely.

在德国，中国商品上个月的出货量比去年同期增长了20%，一些公司向德国商业银行的经济学家汤米·吴表达了担忧。汽车制造商对此感受最为强烈。

China has made 45 percent more electric vehicles this year, even as Chinese companies are engaged in a vicious price war at home because of flagging consumer appetite. Exports of electric vehicles have soared 64.6 percent this year, according to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

今年，中国的电动汽车产量增加了45%，尽管由于消费者需求下降，中国企业在国内陷入了一场恶性价格战。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，今年电动汽车的出口量飙升了64.6%。

Countries that have borne the brunt of the jump in Chinese imports have also seen sharp declines in their own manufacturing, leading to job losses and bankruptcies.

首当其冲受到中国进口激增影响的国家，其本国制造业也出现了大幅下滑，导致失业和破产。

长安汽车在重庆生产的电动汽车，它们将出口到泰国。

In Indonesia, garment factories are closing, citing their inability to compete with cheaper clothes from China. Some 250,000 people lost their jobs in the garment industry in 2023 and 2024, said Redma Gita Wirawasta, the chairman of the Indonesian Filament Yarn and Fiber Producers Association. Thai auto parts manufacturers have shut down because of Chinese electric vehicles. Brazilian carmakers have called on the government to initiate an antidumping probe into Chinese cars sold in the country.

在印度尼西亚，服装厂正在关闭，理由是他们无法与来自中国的廉价服装竞争。印尼长丝纱线和纤维生产商协会主席莱德玛·吉塔·维拉瓦斯塔表示，2023年和2024年，服装业约有25万人失业。由于中国的电动汽车，泰国汽车零部件制造商已经关闭。巴西汽车制造商呼吁政府对在巴西销售的中国汽车发起反倾销调查。

For most countries, there are two options. The first is to do nothing and watch manufacturing get hollowed out, said Sonal Varma, the chief economist for Asia, with the exception of Japan, at Nomura, the Japanese bank.

对于大多数国家来说，有两种选择。第一种是什么都不做，眼睁睁地看着制造业被掏空，日本银行野村证券负责日本以外亚洲地区的首席经济学家索纳尔·瓦尔马说。

The other option is to raise tariffs and use other protectionist measures in specific sectors, just as the United States has done with China. This risks the ire of China, which uses trade and investment as leverage in its diplomatic overtures, or the United States.

另一种选择是提高关税，并在特定部门采取其他保护主义措施，就像美国对中国所做的那样。这可能会激怒以贸易和投资作为外交姿态杠杆的中国或美国。

“Supply chains are getting bifurcated along geopolitical lines,” Ms. Varma said. “It has become a lot more difficult for countries to decide: Who do you align with?”

“供应链正沿着地缘政治路线分化，”瓦尔马说。“对很多国家来说，这成了一个艰难得多的决定：你打算站哪一边？”