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中东冲突引发能源供应担忧,国际油价突破每桶100美元

REBECCA F. ELLIOTT, JOE RENNISON

自2月28日美国和以色列攻击伊朗以来,每加仑普通汽油的价格已上涨了约16%。 Ken Cedeno/Reuters

Oil prices surged on Sunday evening, briefly topping $110 a barrel soon after markets opened, in a sign of growing concern that the war in the Middle East will continue to take a toll on energy supplies.

周日晚间,原油价格大幅飙升,开盘后不久一度突破每桶110美元。这表明市场愈发担心持续的中东战争将对能源供应造成严重冲击。

It was the first time in almost four years that the global oil benchmark, known as Brent, cost more than $100 a barrel. Oil is now around 50 percent more expensive than it was before the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28.

这是全球原油基准价格——布伦特原油——近四年来首次突破100美元大关。目前,油价已比2月28日美国与以色列开始打击伊朗前高出约50%。

In Asia, where economies are heavily dependent on imported oil from the Middle East, stocks tumbled in early trading on Monday, falling about 6 percent in Japan and South Korea. U.S. stock futures, which give traders the chance to bet on the market before exchanges open, fell on Sunday evening. Futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones industrial average all fell roughly 1.5 percent.

在经济高度依赖中东进口石油的亚洲,股市在周一早盘大幅下挫,日本和韩国股市跌幅均在6%左右。美国股指期货在周日晚间同样走低,标普500指数、纳斯达克综合指数及道琼斯工业平均指数的期货跌幅均约为1.5%。

President Trump, who campaigned partly on lowering the cost of energy, said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday described the higher oil prices as “short term” and said they were “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.”

特朗普总统曾在竞选中承诺降低能源成本,但他周日在Truth Social上发帖称,油价上涨是“暂时的”,并表示这是“为了美国及世界的安全与和平而付出的极小代价”。

The huge jump in oil prices suggests that traders are increasingly worried about being able to access oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran’s southern coast, has been all but closed for more than a week, preventing fuel produced in the region from reaching overseas markets. One-fifth of the world’s oil and substantial amounts of natural gas normally move through the strait each day.

油价的巨幅跳升反映出交易员们日益担心波斯湾油气出口的稳定性。位于伊朗南岸的霍尔木兹海峡已基本封锁超过一周,导致该地区生产的燃料无法进入海外市场。通常情况下,全球五分之一的石油和相当一部分天然气每日需经此海峡运输。

With little sign that shipping will soon be able to return to normal, higher oil prices will continue to drive up prices at the pump at a time when many Americans are worried about the economy. As of Sunday, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline had already climbed about 16 percent since the war started, to a national average of $3.45, according to the AAA motor club. Diesel prices had risen at a faster clip of around 22 percent.

目前几乎没有迹象表明航运能很快恢复正常,高企的油价将持续推高加油站的零售价格,而此时许多美国人正对经济前景感到担忧。据美国汽车协会数据,截至周日,全美普通汽油平均零售价自开战以来已上涨约16%,达到每加仑3.45美元;柴油价格涨幅更高,约为22%。

Natural gas, which is used to heat homes and generate electricity, has also become more expensive, particularly in Europe and in Asia, which depend heavily on imported fuel. Natural gas markets are more regional than oil markets, meaning that the United States, as the world’s top natural gas producer, has been comparatively insulated. As of Sunday evening, U.S. prices were up around 17 percent since the war started.

用于家庭供暖和发电的天然气价格也变得更加昂贵,尤其是在高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲和亚洲。相比石油,天然气市场更具区域性,这意味着作为全球最大天然气生产国的美国受到的冲击相对较小。截至周日晚间,美国天然气价格自开战以来上涨了约17%。

Earlier on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to play down the risk that energy prices would remain high for a long time.

周日早些时候,能源部长克里斯·赖特试图淡化能源价格长期走高的风险。

“You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace, but the world is not short of oil today or natural gas,” Mr. Wright told CNN. He said he expected shipping through the strait to be disrupted for weeks in the worst-case scenario, not months.

“你现在看到的是市场中的一些‘恐惧溢价’,但目前全球并不缺石油或天然气,”赖特在接受CNN采访时表示。他预计,在最坏的情况下,通过海峡的航运中断将持续数周而非数月。

Mr. Trump said last week that the U.S. Navy might escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but Mr. Wright said U.S. forces were focused on limiting Iran’s missile and drone capabilities.

特朗普上周曾表示美国海军可能会为霍尔木兹海峡的油轮护航,但赖特表示,美军目前的重点是限制伊朗的导弹和无人机能力

The sudden increase in oil and gas prices has raised concerns about inflation. The Federal Reserve typically counters rising prices by keeping interest rates high, to slow the economy and the pace of inflation. But weak jobs data on Friday bolstered the case for a rate cut, setting up a tug of war over the path forward.

油气价格的突然暴涨引发了对通胀的担忧。美联储通常会通过维持高利率来对抗物价上涨,以减缓经济和通胀的速度。然而,周五疲软的就业数据增加了降息的理由,意味着接下来围绕这一决策将会有一场拉锯战。

A measure of investors’ inflation expectations has risen sharply. Investors now expect inflation to rise to around 4.5 percent over the next 12 months, from a forecast of 2.3 percent at the start of the year.

衡量投资者通胀预期的指标已大幅攀升。投资者目前预计未来12个月的通胀率将达到4.5%左右,而年初的预测仅为2.3%。

That has helped push up government bond yields, which underpin borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, has risen roughly 0.2 percentage points since the war began, to 3.56 percent.

这一预期推高了政府债券收益率,进而抬高了企业和消费者的借贷成本。对利率预期敏感的两年期美国国债收益率自战争开始以来已上升约0.2个百分点,达到3.56%。


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