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中国三季度GDP增速放缓,凸显经济刺激措施紧迫性

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年10月18日

从住房到汽车到餐馆的菜品,中国经济各个领域的价格都在下降。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

The Chinese economy continued to grow at a lackluster pace over the summer, according to data released on Friday, underscoring the urgency of the government’s recent attempts to bolster the economy.

据周五公布的数据,中国经济在今夏的增长仍然乏力,突显了政府近日出台措施尝试提振经济的紧迫性。

Construction has slowed because of a housing market meltdown. Millions of young college graduates have been unable to find work. Many local governments have run out of money to build roads or even pay the salaries of teachers and other workers.

由于房地产市场崩溃,建筑业放缓。数以百万计的年轻大学毕业生无法找到工作。许多地方政府资金耗尽,没有钱修建道路,甚至支付教师及其他工人的工资。

Looming over it all are falling prices across the Chinese economy, from apartments to cars to restaurant meals. Broadly falling prices, a phenomenon called deflation, make it hard for companies and families to earn enough to pay their mortgages and other debts.

在这一切的背后,是中国经济从住房到汽车到餐馆的菜品面临全面的价格下跌。普遍的降价属于一种称为“通缩”的现象,导致企业和家庭难以赚到足够的钱用于偿还房贷和其他债务。

China’s economy grew 0.9 percent in July through September over the previous three months, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. When projected out for the entire year, the economy grew at an annual rate of about 3.6 percent in the third quarter.

中国国家统计局称,中国经济在7月到9月这三个月里环比增长0.9%。推算全年,三季度的年增长率约为3.6%。

The growth in part reflected an official revision to show that the second quarter was even weaker than previously acknowledged. Growth then was at an annual pace of 2 percent, and not the previously reported pace of 2.8 percent.

这一增长部分反映了官方做出的一次修正,显示二季度增长比之前所承认的还要疲弱。那一季度的年增长率为2%,并非此前报告的2.8%。

Beijing has announced a series of measures since Sept. 24 to address the troubles that became clear in the numbers released on Friday. The central bank has cut interest rates and minimum down payments for mortgages. The finance ministry promised the sale of more bonds to raise money for local governments to pay municipal salaries and buy vacant apartments for conversion into affordable housing.

北京从9月24日开始宣布了一系列举措,以应对在周五公布的数据中清晰可见的困难。央行调降了抵押贷款利率和最低首付。财政部承诺出售更多的债券,为地方政府筹集支付政府员工薪资所需的资金,并购买空置住房以改造成经济适用房。

“The timing of the stimulus shows the government realizes the deterioration of the economy,” said Louise Liu Qian, the founder and chief executive of Wusawa Advisory, a Beijing geopolitical and business consulting firm.

“出台这些刺激政策的时机表明,政府意识到经济形势的恶化,”北京地缘政治和商业咨询公司Wusawa Advisory的刘倩说。

Storekeepers complain of weak sales, even as they cut prices so steeply that they are left with little or no profit.

商铺经营者苦于销售疲软,尽管他们已经大幅降价,以至于几乎没有盈利的空间。

18china econ 01 mhqz master1050上海的一家农贸市场,摄于上月。店家虽然降价,但表示销售情况仍然不佳。

“We have no transactions now,” said Yu Xingjun, a wallpaper dealer in Zibo in east-central China, as he sat idle in his empty store on a recent weekday. “As real estate fails, everything else follows.”

“现在没有买卖,”周中的一天,淄博市的墙纸经销商于新军(音)闲坐在空荡荡的店铺里说。“房地产不行了,什么都不行了。”

After working in the home decoration business for more than a decade, Mr. Yu has seen most of his sales evaporate in the last several years. “There was a time when not having orders was unthinkable, but now, it has been ages since I last received an order,” he said.

过去几年里,从事家装行业十余年的于新军看着他的大部分销售额渐渐消失。“那个时候我说你最起码天天都有单,不可能说是没有单,现在多长时间没单了,”他说。

The slowdown in growth was less apparent in the Chinese government’s preferred statistic: the change in the third quarter versus the same period last year. By this measure the economy was 4.6 percent larger than a year earlier, down from 4.7 percent in the second quarter.

经济增长的放缓在中国政府偏好的数据里体现得没那么明显,那就是三季度与去年同期相比的变化。用这个方法计算,经济相比一年前增长了4.6%,低于二季度的4.7%。

Falling prices are a problem for China not just at home but increasingly in its overseas trade. Deflation is starting to hurt what had been China’s sole remaining economic strength this year: exports.

价格下跌对中国来说不只是国内的问题,也越来越影响到海外的贸易。通缩已经开始伤害到今年中国经济唯一的亮点:出口

By September, the overall value of China’s exports was growing only 2.4 percent from a year earlier, as an ever-rising volume of shipments was mostly offset by Chinese companies receiving less money for each load.

中国截至9月的出口总货值仅比一年前增长了2.4%,中国企业从每一宗货物中得到的钱变少了,基本上抵消了出货量的不断增加。

For the past four years, China has relied on rapidly expanding exports to offset difficulties in its domestic economy. From cars to chemicals to solar panels, the physical volumes of China’s exports has just kept rising strongly.

过去四年,中国一直依靠出口的快速扩张来缓解国内经济的困境。从汽车到化学品到太阳能板,中国出口的货物量始终在强势增长。

But the money that China receives for each product is tumbling as Chinese companies have cut prices to try to clear their warehouses of excess merchandise.

然而中国从每一件产品中赚到的钱却急剧减少,因为中国公司是在削价以清理库存。

The number of cars and trucks exported by China surged 36 percent from a year earlier during the past three months, for example. But their total value increased 29 percent, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs. That means the average price for each exported motor vehicle was falling.

例如过去三个月里,小汽车和卡车的出口量相比去年猛增36%。但据中国海关总署的数据,总货值只增加了29%。这意味着出口车辆的平均价格在下降。

Similarly, the number of flat-panel displays exported by China was up 12 percent during the past three months from a year earlier. But their total value climbed half as fast.

同理,过去三个月平板显示器的出口比去年增加了12%。但总价值的涨幅只有这个数字的一半。

The result is in some ways the worst outcome for China. The country’s rising physical quantity of exports and ever increasing market share in overseas markets has triggered a backlash in many countries, prompting tariffs.

从某些方面看,这是中国面临的最糟糕结果。出口货物的实际总量上升,在海外市场的份额不断增加,因此在许多国家触发反弹,促使它们开始施加关税。

18china econ 02 mhqz master1050在房地产崩溃之前,建筑业和房地产行业占到经济总量的四分之一。

Chinese officials contend that they are now ready to pursue the answer that many foreign and Chinese economists have been recommending for months: strengthen the domestic economy. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an said on Saturday that the agency would soon “launch a package of targeted incremental policy measures in the near future to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand and mitigate risks.”

中国官员坚称,他们现在已经做好了应对的准备,这是许多中国和国外经济学家过去几个月里一直在建议的事:提振国内经济。财政部长蓝佛安在周六表示,该部“围绕稳增长、扩内需、化风险,将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策举措”。

Central to that task is stabilizing the construction sector and other real estate-related industries that together accounted for a quarter of the economy before the property meltdown began three years ago.

核心是稳定建筑业及其它房地产相关产业,在三年前房地产崩溃开始前,这些产业合起来占了经济的四分之一。

The total square footage of buildings where construction started has dropped 66 percent in the first eight months of this year compared with the same period in 2019, before the pandemic. Data on so-called construction starts are important because they indicate how much activity will take place over the next several years.

今年前八个月,新开工住宅面积与2019年疫情开始前的同期相比下降了66%。这项所谓新开工的数据很重要,因为它能提示未来数年的活动。

Shanghai recorded more existing apartments changing hands on Oct. 13 than on any day since September 2023, according to state media. But even in Shanghai, buyers are cautious after three years of flat or falling prices.

据官方媒体,上海在10月13日创下自2023年9月以来的二手房成交量记录。但是即使在上海,购房者在经过三年的价格持平或下跌后,也保持着谨慎的态度。

“The investment appeal is gone, and buying a house is essentially for practical needs now,” said Cao Longquan, a Shanghai real estate agent. “While apartment viewings have increased, buyers remain relatively cautious.”

“金融属性没有了。现在买房基本是纯刚需,”上海房地产中介曹龙泉(音)说。“看房量增加了,下手还是比较谨慎。”

Many analysts have warned that China’s economic troubles echo Japan’s struggle a generation ago with rising debt and slowing growth. But some believe the government’s stimulus measures could reduce the chances the outlook will get worse.

许多分析人士警告,中国的经济困境与日本一个世代前的债务上升和增长放缓如出一辙。但一些人认为,政府的刺激措施可以降低情况进一步恶化的几率。

“China is in the midst of a debt-deflation spiral, but Beijing’s latest economic policy U-turn will go a long way to preventing China from repeating Japan’s experience during the 1990s,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London research firm focused on China.

“中国正处在债务型通缩中,但北京最近的经济政策转向会有深远影响,有助于中国避免重复日本在上世纪90年代的境况,”专注于中国的伦敦研究机构Enodo Economics的首席经济师戴安娜·乔伊列娃说。

Li You对本文有研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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