Strong exports and continued investment in new factories offset faltering retail sales and a further erosion of China’s housing market as growth in the Chinese economy held steady over the summer.

强劲的出口和对新工厂的持续投资抵消了零售疲软和房地产市场的进一步下滑，中国经济在夏季保持了稳定增长。

During the third quarter of the year, from July through September, China’s economy expanded 1.1 percent over the previous quarter, maintaining roughly the same pace as during the spring, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement on Monday. If that pace continues, the economy will expand about 4.1 percent over the next 12 months.

根据中国国家统计局周一的声明，今年第三季度（7月至9月），中国经济较前一季度增长1.1%，与春季的增长速度大致持平。如果保持这一速度，未来12个月经济将增长约4.1%。

Over the past four years, a plunging housing market has erased much of the savings of Chinese households, causing many to curtail spending and hurting retail sales. The central government has tried to offset this by providing subsidies for consumers to buy smartphones, electric cars, appliances and other manufactures goods that are made mainly China. But some local governments, which bear part of the cost of the subsidies, are trimming their spending on these programs.

过去四年中，房地产市场的急剧下跌抹去了中国家庭的大部分储蓄，导致许多家庭减少开支，重创零售业。中央政府通过补贴鼓励消费者购买智能手机、电动车、家电等主要产自中国的制成品，以求抵消这一影响。但承担部分补贴成本的地方政府正削减相关项目支出。

Apartment prices are down by as much as 40 percent in many cities from their peak in the summer of 2021, dealing a crippling blow to the country’s developers and builders. The contraction in real estate and construction, which used to represent a quarter of China’s economy, continued during the third quarter.

许多城市的住房价格自2021年夏季的峰值以来下跌了高达40%，对该国的开发商和建筑商造成了沉重打击。曾占中国经济四分之一的房地产与建筑业在第三季度持续萎缩。

Investment in new factories offset some of this weakness until this past summer. The government has recently become concerned about manufacturing overcapacity, price wars and other signs of excessive competition. The state-controlled banking system has slowed the pace of new loans for manufacturing projects.

直到今年夏天，对新工厂的投资仍能抵消部分疲软。政府最近开始担心制造业产能过剩、价格战和其他过度竞争的迹象。国有银行系统已放缓对制造业项目发放新贷款的速度。

Still, China’s investment in exports, and policies to replace imports with domestically produced goods, continue to drive the economy. The country’s surplus in the trade of merchandise increased 12.4 percent in the past three months compared to the same period last year.

尽管如此，中国对出口的投资以及用国产商品替代进口的政策继续推动经济发展。过去三个月中，中国的商品贸易顺差比去年同期增长了12.4%。

China’s trade surplus, the amount by which exports exceed imports, is on track to surge well past $1 trillion this year, breaking its own record last year. While China’s exports to the United States have dipped following President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, its exports to developing countries have soared.

中国的贸易顺差——即出口超过进口的金额——预计今年将大幅超过1万亿美元，打破去年创下的纪录。虽然在特朗普总统实施关税后，中国对美国的出口有所下降，但对发展中国家的出口却大幅增长。

5月，重庆铁路集装箱中心站，等待出口到泰国的电动汽车。

Some of the exports to other countries are then shipped to the United States. But others are being used to build factories and solar panel farms in emerging markets and to take market share away from local businesses. A growing number of countries, from Brazil to Turkey to Indonesia, have begun to follow the American example by imposing tariffs on imports from China.

部分出口到其他国家的商品随后被运往美国。但还有部分商品被用于在新兴市场建设工厂和太阳能农场，并挤占当地企业的市场份额。从巴西到土耳其再到印度尼西亚，越来越多的国家开始效仿美国的做法，对从中国进口的商品征收关税。

The growth data announced on Monday was slightly better than many economists had expected because the National Bureau of Statistics revised its calculation of the preceding quarter lower. The bureau said that economic output was 1 percent larger in the spring than during the winter, and not 1.1 percent larger, as it had announced in July.

周一公布的增长数据略好于许多经济学家预期，因为国家统计局下调了对前一季度的计算。统计局表示，春季的经济产出较冬季增长1%，而不是7月宣布的1.1%。

By a measure the Chinese government prefers to highlight, the economy was 4.8 percent larger in the third quarter than in the same quarter last year, the agency said on Monday. Some analysts have questioned whether Chinese data may overstate the economy’s performance.

根据中国政府更倾向强调的衡量标准，统计局周一表示，第三季度的经济比去年同期增长了4.8%。一些分析师质疑中国数据是否可能夸大了经济表现。

The statistics bureau did not hold its customary news conference to discuss the data, possibly because the regularly scheduled release of the quarterly data coincided with the start on Monday of the annual gathering of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. The committee, composed of 370 of the most powerful people in China, is expected to review and discuss the country’s Five Year Plan for policies on the economy and other issues from 2026 through 2030.

统计局没有循例举行新闻发布会讨论数据，可能是因为季度数据的定期发布日期与周一召开的中国共产党中央委员会年度会议时间冲突。该委员会由中国370名最有权势的人组成，预计将审查和讨论2026年至2030年的国家五年计划，涉及经济和其他问题的政策。

The Central Committee is expected to approve steps in the coming months to address the country’s economic weakness. Some economists expect the Chinese leadership to announce measures to help households and reinforce consumer spending, such as increasing pensions for rural seniors, who currently receive as little as $20 a month.

预计中央委员会将在未来几个月批准措施以应对国家经济疲软的问题。一些经济学家预计中国领导人将宣布措施帮助家庭，提振消费支出，例如增加农村老年人的养老金，他们目前每月最低仅领取143元。

“The property slump is weighing on retail sales, but further consumption-boosting measures are in the cards,” said Xu Sitao, the chief China economist at Deloitte.

“房地产低迷正在影响零售销售，但进一步刺激消费的措施即将出台，”德勤首席中国经济学家许思涛表示。

But other economists expect China’s leadership to reinforce the country’s longstanding emphasis on building rail lines, highways, bridges, hydroelectric dams and other government-led construction projects.

但也有一些经济学家预计中国领导人将加强国家对铁路、公路、桥梁、水电站和其他政府主导建设项目，这些是长期以来的重点事项。

Many local governments cannot afford these projects because their land sales to developers, previously one of their largest sources of revenue, have withered during the real estate slump even as their upkeep costs are surging for recently built infrastructure. But China’s national government has considerable capacity to finance big projects and is likely to continue doing so, notably in western China, said Dan Wang, a China economist in the Singapore office of Eurasia Group, a global consulting firm.

许多地方政府无法负担这些项目，因为房地产低迷期间向开发商的土地销售（之前是其最大收入来源之一）大幅减少，同时近期建设的基础设施维护成本激增。但全球咨询公司欧亚集团新加坡办公室的中国经济学家王丹表示，中央政府有相当大的能力资助大型项目，并可能继续这样做，尤其是在中国西部。

“For local governments, it’s all about maintenance now — the construction has been left to the central government,” she said.

“对地方政府来说现在只需要维护了——建设任务已留给中央政府，”她说。