2025年5月26日
China’s giant logistics machine was humming inside rows of metal warehouses near Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam this month. Hundreds of workers packed cosmetics, clothes and shoes for Shein, the Chinese fast-fashion retailer. Recruiters needing to fill hundreds more jobs were interviewing candidates outside.
本月,越南南部胡志明市附近,中国庞大的物流机器在一排排金属仓库里轰鸣运转。数百名工人为中国的快时尚零售商希音打包化妆品、衣服和鞋子。招聘人员则在外面面试求职者,数百个职位空缺需要填补。
At another industrial park, owned by the supply chain arm of Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, trucks drove in and out at a steady clip.
在另一个由中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴旗下供应链部门拥有的工业园区,进进出出的卡车川流不息。
This kind of activity, powered by Chinese money, has brought jobs to Vietnam. It is one of the forces that have made Vietnam a thriving destination for companies around the world looking for alternatives to China’s factories.
这种由中国资金驱动的活动不仅为越南带来了就业机会,还助力越南成为全球企业寻求中国工厂替代之选的热门目的地。
But as President Trump’s trade war is turning supply chains upside down, China’s role is emerging as the biggest obstacle for Vietnam as it tries to avoid a 46 percent tariff.
但是,随着特朗普总统的贸易战颠覆全球供应链,中国扮演的角色正在成为越南试图避免46%关税的最大障碍。
Vietnamese officials are rushing to secure a deal before a 90-day pause on the new tariffs ends in early July. They met with administration officials in Washington this week for a second round of talks. The talks will resume next month, Vietnamese officials said.
越南官员正加紧在新关税的90天暂停期于7月初结束之前达成协议。他们本周在华盛顿与政府官员举行了第二轮会谈。越南官员表示,下个月还将继续磋商。
The Trump administration wants Vietnam to do more to crack down on companies that are rerouting goods from China to Vietnam to avoid tariffs, a practice known as transshipment.
特朗普政府希望越南加大力度,打击那些为了避免关税而将商品从中国转往越南的公司,这种做法被称为转运。
But the administration is also taking a view of the issue that goes beyond the usual definition of transshipment as it tries to wean the American economy off its dependence on Chinese imports. That puts countries that rely on China to make goods they export under heavy pressure.
但是,在试图使美国经济彻底摆脱对中国进口的依赖之际,美国政府对这个问题的看法也超出了通常对转运的定义。这给那些依赖中国制造再出口的国家带来了巨大压力。
For Vietnam, the challenge is proving that what it sends to the United States was made in Vietnam and not in China. In a sign of the awkward position it finds itself in, Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser to Mr. Trump, recently called Vietnam “a colony of China.”
对越南来说,挑战在于证明它运往美国的产品是越南制造,而不是中国制造。特朗普的高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗最近称越南是“中国的殖民地”,足见其处境之尴尬。
Vietnam was a big beneficiary of tariffs that Mr. Trump placed on Chinese goods during his first presidency. Its trade surplus with the United States swelled to $123.5 billion in 2024, from $38.3 billion in 2017.
越南是特朗普在第一任总统任期内对中国商品征收关税的一大受益者。越南对美国的贸易顺差从2017年的383亿美元增至2024年的1235亿美元。
The reordering of trade flows accelerated in April, when China was facing 145 percent tariffs, Vietnamese imports from China ballooned to $15 billion while its exports to the United States totaled $12 billion. Beijing and Washington have since reached a temporary deal to slash the tariffs.
4月,中国面临145%的关税,越南从中国的进口激增至150亿美元,而同期对美国的出口总额为120亿美元,贸易格局加速重构。此后,北京和华盛顿达成了一项削减关税的临时协议。
“The priority for Trump is for Vietnam to fix the transshipment problem and make sure that the two countries can sign something that shows Vietnam is taking action,” said Adam Sitkoff, the executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi.
“特朗普的首要任务是让越南解决转运问题,并确保两国能够签署协议,表明越南正在采取行动,”河内美国商会执行主任亚当·西特科夫说。
随着为期90天的关税暂停期接近尾声,官员们面临着遏制中国商品改道越南的压力。
In response, Vietnam created a special task force this month to “aggressively crack down on smuggling, trade fraud” and “the export of goods falsely labeled as ‘Made in Vietnam,’” and its finance ministry has met with U.S. Customs and Border Protection to talk about working together and sharing information.
为此,越南本月成立了一个特别工作组,“积极打击走私、贸易欺诈”和“贴上‘越南制造’假标签的出口行为”,越南财政部已与美国海关和边境保护局会面,讨论合作和信息共享的问题。
Despite the efforts, Trump officials have said it is not enough.
尽管越南做出了这些努力,特朗普的官员表示,这还不够。
“It has become very difficult for Vietnam to justify to the U.S. government that this isn’t just rerouting Chinese goods,” said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore and the founder of Asia Decoded, a consulting firm.
“越南很难向美国政府证明这不仅仅是改变中国商品的路线,”新加坡经济学家、咨询公司Asia Decoded的创始人普里扬卡·基肖尔说。
“China is Vietnam’s biggest intermediate goods supplier, so if you are pushing your exports to the U.S. up, you would see an increase in imports from China,” Ms. Kishore said.
“中国是越南最大的中间产品供应国,所以如果你增加对美国的出口,你就会看到从中国的进口增加,”基肖尔说。
Vietnam and other Asian countries depend on China for the supplies used to make finished goods. So as production shifts from factories in China to factories elsewhere, much of the spike in exports from China to its neighbors may be raw materials used by factories.
越南和其他亚洲国家依赖中国供应的生产物资。因此,随着生产从中国的工厂转移到其他国家,中国对邻国出口激增的大部分可能是工厂使用的原材料。
Still, some Vietnamese imports from China are undeniably finished goods shipped through Vietnam to other countries with their origin in China disguised, which is universally considered illegal.
然而,不可否认的是,越南从中国进口的部分商品实为制成品,通过越南转运到其他国家,并伪装原产地为越南,这种做法在全球范围内被普遍认为是非法的。
There is little data on exactly how much falls into the category of transshipment, Ms. Kishore said. By one estimate, rerouting activity increased to 16.5 percent of exports to the United States after Mr. Trump’s first-term tariffs on China, driven in part by Chinese-owned companies.
基肖尔表示,关于究竟有多少货物属于转运的数据很少。据估计,在特朗普第一个任期对中国征收关税后,部分由中资企业推动的改道运输已经占到越南对美国出口的16.5%。
The prohibitively high tariffs on Chinese goods last month caused more manufacturers to seek options in Vietnam. After Mr. Trump ended a loophole that let Americans buy cheap goods from China tax free, Shein offered guidance and subsidies to factories to move operations to Vietnam. Shein did not respond to a request for comment.
上个月对中国商品征收的高关税使更多的制造商在越南寻求替代方案。在特朗普堵住了一个让美国人可以免税从中国购买廉价商品的漏洞后,希音甚至向企业提供将业务转移到越南的指导和补贴。希音没有回应置评请求。
4月份,越南从中国进口150亿美元,向美国出口120亿美元。
Much of that activity has been the legitimate movement of the supply chain as companies shift their production out of China and into places where tariffs are lower.
很多此类活动其实是供应链的正常转移,企业为了避开高关税,正将生产从中国迁往关税更低的地区。
But the Trump administration is taking a hard line. “China uses Vietnam to transship to evade the tariffs,” Mr. Navarro said. The goal is to put a fence around China’s exports.
但特朗普政府采取了强硬立场。“中国利用越南转运来逃避关税,”纳瓦罗说。其目标是要对中国出口设置围栏。
“The United States seems to be arguing that anything that comes from China is by default transshipment, so you tar and feather every single product that comes from China,” said Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, an organization that focuses on trade.
“美国似乎认为,任何来自中国的东西都是默认的转运,所以对来自中国的每一件产品都贴上违规标签,”专注于贸易研究的欣里奇基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说。
Stopping illegal transshipment is one thing; disconnecting supply chains from China would be much more complicated. Most of the things that Americans buy have raw materials from China — whether it is the plastic in their children’s toys, the rubber in their shoes or the thread in their shirts.
制止非法转运已经不易,切断与中国的供应链则更为复杂。美国人购买的大多数东西都有来自中国的原材料——无论是孩子玩具里的塑料、鞋子里的橡胶还是衬衫里的线。
“Asian governments are being asked to redefine supply chains to something that might be decades in the making in exchange for what? It’s a little unclear,” Ms. Elms said.
“亚洲各国政府正被要求重构可能需要数十年才能建立的供应链体系,这样做获得什么回报,目前看来有点不明确,”埃尔姆斯说。
For Vietnam’s textile and garment industry, taking China out of the equation would be hugely problematic. Factories import around 60 percent of the fabrics they use from China, according to Tran Nhu Tung, the vice chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association.
对于越南的纺织和服装工业来说,把中国排除在外将是一个巨大的问题。越南纺织服装协会副主席陈恩东(音)表示,工厂使用的面料中,约有60%是从中国进口的。
“Without China, we cannot make products,” he said. “Vietnam would have no material to produce to make the finished goods. And without the U.S., Vietnam cannot export the finished goods. So the Vietnamese government has to find a balance between China and the U.S., and it’s very difficult for them to do this.”
“没有中国,我们就造不出产品,”他说。“越南将没有制造成衣的原材料。没有美国,越南就无法出口成衣。所以越南政府必须在中国和美国之间找到平衡,这对他们来说绝非易事。”
2月份在中国一家工厂等待装运的希音包装。在过去的两个月里,该公司在越南陆续建立仓储中心。
To try to sweeten any deal with the Trump administration, Vietnam has offered to increase its purchase of American goods like agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, and curb the shipment of Chinese goods to the United States.
为了争取与特朗普政府达成协议,越南提出增加购买农产品和波音飞机等美国商品,并限制中国商品经过越南运往美国。
But the flood of investment and hiring by Chinese companies continues to complicate things.
但是,中国企业持续涌入的投资和招聘继续使事情复杂化。
In the southern province of Long An, where many shoe and textile factories are based, Shein is on a hiring drive.
在制鞋纺织业集中的南方省份隆安,希音正在大规模招聘。
On a recent Friday, Huy Phong, a recruiter, hung an advertisement for jobs on the fence outside a Shein warehouse soliciting work to load goods and sort, classify and package fashion items like handbags, clothing and footwear. The pay: $385 to $578 a month. Shein needs 2,000 workers for its warehouse and has hired only half that number so far, he said.
最近的一个周五,招聘人员胡峰(音)在希音一间仓库外的栅栏上张贴了一则招聘广告,招募工人负责搬运货物,并对手袋、服装、鞋类等时尚商品进行分拣、分类与包装。。工资是每月385至578美元。他说,希音的仓库需要2000名工人,但到目前为止只招到了一半。
Finding workers was hard. A lot of warehouses and logistics companies were recruiting.
招人很难。很多仓库和物流公司都在招人。
Nearby, Duong Minh Giang was leaving his interview feeling dismayed. He said the job would entail handling raw materials from China like thread and chemical dye to store at the warehouse and send to nearby factories to make clothes.
不远处,杜明江(音)沮丧地离开了面试现场。他说,这项工作需要处理来自中国的线材和化学染料等原材料,储存在仓库里,然后送到附近的工厂生产服装。
“But I don’t think I will take the job,” he said. “The salary is low.”
“但我想我不会接受这份工作,”他说。“工资太低了。”