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中国买家“爆买”,黄金价格飙升至历史最高

DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, CLAIRE FU

2024年5月6日

上海一家六福珠宝店里的顾客,摄于今年3月。 Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

As gold surged this year to its highest price ever, Xena Lin joined the frenzy by making monthly purchases of gold “beans,” pebble-like morsels of the precious metal.

随着黄金价格在今年飙升至历史最高水平,林齐娜(音)也加入了这股狂潮,每月都买小金豆。

For Ms. Lin, a 25-year-old administrative worker in southern China, the $80 beans — small enough to rest on a fingertip and weighing about one-thirtieth of an ounce — were an affordable way to buy into the gold excitement without splurging for jewelry, gold bars or coins. She had dabbled with investing in stocks in the past, but she said buying gold, especially in this fun way, inspired her to continue investing.

25岁的林女士在中国南部从事行政工作,这些500多块钱一颗的小金豆是一种能够负担得起的黄金投资方式,它们的尺寸小到可以放在指尖上,重量约为三十分之一盎司,所以无需花大钱去买珠宝、金条或者金币。她之前投资过股票,但她表示,购买黄金,尤其是攒金豆这种有趣的方式激发了她持续投资的热情。

“I’m still working hard to save more,” Ms. Lin said.

“我还在努力攒更多的金豆,”林女士说。

Often considered a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold has soared in price in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza. But gold’s climb to highs above $2,400 per ounce has proved more resilient, and lasted longer, because of China.

在地缘政治和经济出现动荡的时候,黄金往往被视为一种安全的投资,在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和加沙爆发战争之后,黄金价格飙升。但事实证明,金价之所以顽强地站到每盎司2400美元以上的高位,而且持续了很长时间,是因为中国。

Chinese consumers have flocked to gold as their confidence in traditional investments like real estate or stocks has faltered. At the same time, the country’s central bank has steadily added to its gold reserves, while whittling away at its holdings of U.S. debt. And throwing fuel on the fire are Chinese speculators betting that there is still room for appreciation.

随着对房地产股票等传统投资的信心出现动摇,中国消费者纷纷涌向了黄金。与此同时,中国央行稳步增加黄金储备,并削减持有的美国国债。中国的投机者押注黄金仍有升值空间,这更是火上浇油。

China already held considerable sway in gold markets. But the country’s influence has become more pronounced during this latest bull run — a nearly 50 percent increase in the global price since late 2022. It continued to scale new heights despite factors that traditionally make gold a comparatively less appealing investment: higher interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar.

中国在黄金市场上本就有相当大的影响力。但在最近这轮牛市中,中国的影响力变得更加显著——自2022年底以来,全球黄金价格上涨了近50%。尽管传统上有一些因素使黄金成为吸引力相对有限的投资品——利率上升和美元走强,但金价仍不断攀至新高。

Last month, gold prices vaulted higher even after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would keep higher interest rates for longer. And it has continued to appreciate even as the dollar has risen against almost every major currency in the world this year.

上个月,即使美联储发出将在更长时间内维持较高利率的信号,黄金价格仍大幅上涨。今年以来,尽管美元对全球几乎所有主要货币的汇率都在上涨,金价仍在继续升值。

Prices have pulled back to around $2,300 per ounce, but there is a growing sentiment that the gold market is governed no longer by economic factors but by the whims of Chinese buyers and investors.

金价已回落至每盎司2300美元左右,但越来越多的人认为,黄金市场不再受经济因素的支配,而取决于中国买家和投资者的心血来潮。

00China Gold 02 master1050在中国,许多年轻人把攒金豆作为一种可以负担得起的投资。

“China is unquestionably driving the price of gold,” said Ross Norman, chief executive of MetalsDaily.com, a precious-metals information platform based in London. “The flow of gold to China has gone from solid to an absolute torrent.”

“中国无疑在推动金价上涨,”总部位于伦敦的贵金属信息平台MetalsDaily.com的首席执行官罗斯·诺曼说。“流向中国的黄金已经从源源不断变成了滔滔洪流。”

Gold consumption in the country rose 6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the China Gold Association. It came on the heels of a 9 percent increase last year.

根据中国黄金协会的数据,今年一季度,中国的黄金消费量同比增长6%。去年的增幅为9%。

Gold investing became more alluring as traditional investments turned lackluster. China’s real estate sector, the destination for most families’ savings, remains in crisis. Investor confidence in the country’s stock markets has not fully returned. A string of big investment funds aimed at the wealthy toppled after failed bets on real estate.

随着传统投资的低迷,投资黄金变得更具吸引力。被多数中国家庭视为储蓄手段的中国房地产目前仍处于危机中。投资者对股市的信心尚未完全恢复。一系列针对富裕群体的大型投资基金在房地产投资失败后倒闭。

With few better alternatives, money flowed into Chinese funds that traded in gold, and many young people took to collecting beans in tiny quantities.

由于没有更好的选择,资金流入了那些以黄金为交易对象的中国基金,许多年轻人开始攒起了金豆。

Online merchants are aggressively hawking gold beans. On Alibaba’s Taobao, one of China’s biggest e-commerce platforms, a merchant sold gold beans on a livestream — a blend of the Home Shopping Network and Amazon. She said buying beans was “like shopping, but an investment.”

网上的商家也在大力兜售金豆。在中国最大的电商平台之一阿里巴巴的淘宝上,一位商家直播销售金豆。她说,买金豆“看似购物,实际上是一种投资”。

The tiny beans came in five shapes, including one that resembled a peanut and another like a persimmon. Paying $87 per bean, a person could buy into the gold boom for the price of a hot pot meal, she said.

她出售的金豆分五种形状,其中一种像花生,另一种像柿子。她说,每颗金豆的价格是630元,用吃一顿火锅的钱就能参与黄金热。

Kelly Zhong, a teacher in Beijing, started buying gold in 2020 at the outset of the pandemic. She has amassed more than two pounds of gold bars, but she has also invested in the metal through exchange-traded funds. She said she was inspired by an old saying: “Jade in prosperous times, gold in troubled times.”

北京教师钟凯利(音)从2020年疫情之初开始购买黄金。她已经积攒了超过两磅的金条,但还通过交易所交易基金投资黄金。她说,自己受到了一句老话的启发:“乱世黄金盛世玉。”

As she felt the world become more chaotic, Ms. Zhong added to her stockpile, betting that gold prices would only climb. She has stopped buying, but she is not ready to sell. She sees no reason to. The Chinese economy is still struggling, and neither real estate nor stocks seem like a sound investment.

当她感觉到世界越来越乱时,钟女士增加了她的黄金储备,押注金价只会上涨。她已经停止了购买,但还没有准备好出售。她认为没有理由这样做。中国经济仍在挣扎中,房地产和股票似乎都不是稳健的投资选项。

00China Gold 01 jkpw master1050上海的交易市场炒作金价的投资者助推了金价的上涨。

“The money has to go somewhere,” she said.

“钱总得花到某个地方去,”她说。

Another major buyer of gold in China is the country’s central bank. In March, the People’s Bank of China added to its gold reserves for a 17th straight month. Last year, the bank bought more gold than any other central bank in the world, adding more to its reserves than it had in nearly 50 years.

中国的另一个黄金大买家是中国央行。今年3月,中国人民银行连续第17个月增加黄金储备。去年,该行购买的黄金比世界上任何其他央行都多,黄金储备的增加量达到近50年来的最高水平。

Beijing is buying up gold to diversify its reserve funds and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar, long considered the most important currency to hold in reserve. China has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for more than a decade. As of March, China had about $775 billion worth of U.S. debt, down from about $1.1 trillion in 2021.

为了实现储备资金的多样化,减少对美元的依赖,中国政府正在大量购买黄金。长期以来,美元一直被其视为最重要的储备货币。十多年来,中国一直在减持美国国债。截至3月,中国持有约7750亿美元的美国债务,低于2021年的约1.1万亿美元。

When China increased its gold holdings in the past, it bought domestically using renminbi, said Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International in Beijing. But this time, he said, the bank is using foreign currencies to buy gold — effectively reducing its exposure to the U.S. dollar and other currencies.

北京中银国际的全球首席经济学家管涛说,中国过去增持黄金时,是在国内用人民币购买。但他表示,这次中国央行是用外币来购买黄金,这有效地减少了对美元和其他货币的风险敞口。

Many central banks, including China, starting acquiring gold after the U.S. Treasury Department took the rare step of freezing Russia’s dollar holdings under sanctions imposed on Moscow. Other American allies imposed similar restrictions for their currencies.

在美国财政部根据对俄罗斯的制裁罕见地冻结了俄罗斯的美元储备之后,包括中国在内的许多央行开始买入黄金。美国的其他盟友也对本国货币实施了类似的限制。

Mr. Guan said the sanctions had shaken the “foundation of trust for the current international monetary system” and forced central banks to protect their reserves with more diverse holdings. “We can see this wave of gold’s rise may be different from the past,” he said.

管涛表示,制裁动摇了“当前国际货币体系的信任基础”,迫使各央行以更多样化的持有来保护其储备。“我们可以看到,这一波黄金涨势可能与以往有所不同,”他说。

Although Beijing has been buying up gold, the metal accounts for only about 4.6 percent of China’s foreign exchange reserves. In percentage terms, India holds nearly twice as much of its reserves in gold.

尽管中国政府一直在购买黄金,但这种金属仅占中国外汇储备的4.6%左右。按百分比计算,印度持有的黄金储备几乎是中国的两倍。

00China Gold 02 jkpw master1050中国的另一个黄金大买家是中国央行。今年3月,中国人民银行连续第17个月增加黄金储备。

The combination of aggressive retail buying from Chinese consumers and central bank purchases has drawn the interest of speculators on markets in Shanghai who are betting that this trend will continue. Average trading volume for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange more than doubled in April from a year earlier.

中国消费者和央行的大肆购买引起了上海市场的投机者的兴趣,他们押注这一趋势将会持续。上海期货交易所4月份的黄金平均交易量同比增长了一倍多。

“They are swimming with the tide,” said Mr. Norman from MetalsDaily. “China is now dominating the gold market.”

“他们是在迎合潮流,”MetalsDaily的诺曼表示。“中国现在主导着黄金市场。”

For Ms. Lin, buying gold beans is satisfying, she said, because it feels like frivolous shopping but she’s actually investing her money in something she can touch. She said she would continue to buy more beans.

对林女士来说,攒金豆是件令人愉快的事,她说,因为这感觉像是买着玩,但实际上是在用钱投资可以触摸到的东西。她表示会继续攒金豆。

“The price of gold always goes up and down,” she said. “But the increase is within the range that I can bear, so I think it’s OK.”

“金价一直在波动,”她说。“但涨幅在我可以承受的范围内,所以我认为还可以。”

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