President Trump has unapologetically wielded the power of the United States on the global stage, taking a much more belligerent approach economically and militarily to try to dictate the actions of other countries.

特朗普总统在全球舞台上理直气壮地挥舞着美国的权力大棒，在经济与军事领域采取更为好战的强硬姿态，试图左右他国的行动。

From high tariffs to the war with Iran, Mr. Trump has claimed that this aggressive behavior internationally has only upsides, and that past leaders were fools for refusing to tap into America’s power.

从高额关税到对伊朗开战，特朗普声称，这种在国际上咄咄逼人的做派只有好处，没有坏处；而往届美国领导人不愿动用美国的实力，在他看来愚蠢至极。

But one clear drawback of the strategy is emerging. While many countries have acceded to the president’s demands, some have found a highly effective new way to fight back. Mr. Trump’s aggression has given them the opportunity to test their control over choke points, threatening the United States and the global economy.

但如今，这一策略的一个明显弊端正逐渐显现。尽管许多国家屈从于特朗普的要求，但部分国家已找到极具效力的全新反击方式。特朗普的强硬挑衅恰好给了它们检验自身对战略阻塞点控制权的机会，从而威胁美国与全球经济。

One such choke point is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, which accounts for less than 1 percent of global economic output, has control over the shipping lane that transports a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran at the end of February has blocked shipments of fuel, fertilizer and other goods, sending gas prices sharply higher and spreading anxiety among U.S. farmers and manufacturers.

霍尔木兹海峡便是这样一处战略阻塞点。伊朗的经济总量占全球比重不足1%，却掌控着这条承载全球五分之一石油与天然气运输的航道。自2月底美以联合对伊朗发动袭击以来，这条航道已被封锁，燃料、化肥及其他商品的运输受阻，导致全球油价大幅飙升，在美国的农场主与制造商中引发普遍焦虑。

Another experiment in retaliatory coercion began one year ago on Thursday, when Mr. Trump walked into the Rose Garden and unveiled tariffs on what he called “Liberation Day.” While many governments — even powerful economies like the European Union — complied with U.S. demands, China was a notable exception. Beijing rolled out a licensing system for exports of rare-earth minerals and magnets that has given China unparalleled control over the global manufacturing system.

另一轮报复性反制的实验始于一年前的一个周四。当天，特朗普走进白宫玫瑰园，宣布对多国加征关税，并将那一天称作“解放日”。尽管包括欧盟这样的强势经济体在内的多国政府都顺从了美国的要求，但中国是个明显的例外。北京随即推出稀土矿产与稀土磁体出口许可制度，这使中国对全球制造业体系拥有了无与伦比的控制力。

Makers of cars, semiconductors, fighter jets and other goods — the backbone of a U.S. factory system that Mr. Trump wants to revive — depend on rare earths, most of which are processed in China.

汽车、半导体、战斗机等产品的制造商正是特朗普希望重振的美国制造业支柱，它们都高度依赖稀土，而全球绝大多数稀土都在中国加工。

While China is approving some licenses and allowing some rare earths to flow, supplies for many manufacturers are running short. And China has cut off exports of these materials to companies that work for the U.S. military, leaving them struggling to find other suppliers. Mr. Trump’s decision to delay a visit to China by roughly six weeks until mid-May worried some executives who hoped that his meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, could alleviate the pressure.

尽管中国正在批准部分许可证并放行部分稀土出口，但许多制造商的供应仍然紧张。此外，中国已全面切断为美国军方供货企业的稀土供应，导致这些企业不得不竭力寻找其他供应商。特朗普将原计划访华行程推迟约六周、延至5月中旬，这一决定让部分企业高管忧心忡忡——他们原本寄望于特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的会晤能缓解当前的供应压力。

The difficulties underscore an inconvenient truth for the president: As powerful as the American economy is, its inextricable links with the rest of the world can still bring it to its knees.

这些困境凸显出一个令特朗普难堪的事实：即便美国经济实力再强，它与全球经济千丝万缕的联系，仍可能让它陷入被动、难以招架。

Edward Fishman, the author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” said the rest of the world had seen how the mineral controls had gotten Mr. Trump to back off China last year. Since Mr. Trump threatened in January to take over Greenland, even European officials had been searching for potential choke points in U.S. trade, Mr. Fishman said.

《阻塞点：经济战时代的美国实力》(Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare)一书作者爱德华·菲什曼表示，全球各国都已看到，中国的矿业管控如何迫使特朗普去年在对华政策上做出让步。菲什曼称，自今年1月特朗普威胁接管格陵兰岛以来，就连欧洲官员也开始积极寻找美国贸易体系中的潜在阻塞点。

“The lesson is that the way to deal with American economic coercion is to fight back,” he said. “Iran now is proving that again.”

“现在的教训是，应对美国经济胁迫的办法就是反击，”他说。“伊朗如今正在再次证明这一点。”

China began designing a system of rare-earth controls before the re-election of Mr. Trump, whose strategy is not entirely new: The United States has a long history of weaponizing supply chains, from using its control of the global banking system to punish enemy nations to trying to halt the flow of advanced artificial intelligence technology to China.

中国早在特朗普连任前就开始设计稀土管控体系。而特朗普的这套策略其实并非首创：美国将供应链用作武器的历史由来已久——从利用对全球银行体系的控制权来制裁敌对国家，到试图阻止先进人工智能技术流向中国，手段不一而足。

But Mr. Trump stepped up American antagonism, with tools ranging from tariffs to military strikes. One of his basic principles has been that the United States should do a better job of leveraging its power. He argues that, as the world’s biggest consumer market, the United States can force other countries to trade on terms less favorable for them, and that with the world’s most powerful military, it can remove heads of state from Venezuela to Iran.

但特朗普通过从关税到军事打击等手段，加剧了美国的对抗姿态。他奉行的核心原则之一就是美国必须更充分地利用自身实力。他声称，作为全球最大消费市场，美国可以强迫其他国家接受对自身不利的贸易条款；而凭借全球最强的军事力量，美国可以推翻从委内瑞拉到伊朗的各国政权。

多艘船只停泊在阿曼马斯喀特附近、霍尔木兹海峡附近的海域。该水道关闭导致石油、天然气、化肥及其他货物的运输受阻。

Mr. Trump has dismissed any criticism that those actions violate international alliances, laws or conventions, preferring to see the world in terms of raw power. The countries that have done best against him, like China, seem to recognize that same principle, responding in economically destructive ways to try to force him to back down.

对于外界批评这些行动违背国际同盟、国际法或国际公约的声音，特朗普一概不屑一顾，他更愿意用纯粹的实力逻辑看待世界。而像中国这样能有效对抗他的国家，似乎也深谙这一原则，它们以同样具有经济破坏力的手段反击，迫使特朗普做出让步。

It remains to be seen whether Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz persuades Mr. Trump to call off his campaign. But the disruption appears to be encouraging him to try to bring the war to a quicker end.

伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁能否说服特朗普叫停军事行动，仍有待观察。但目前的干扰似乎正推动他寻求更快结束这场战争。

In an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Mr. Trump said that the United States received “almost no oil” through the strait, and that countries that did “must take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.”

在周三晚间的全国讲话中，特朗普表示，美国通过该海峡进口的石油“几乎为零”，而依赖这条航道的国家“必须主动站出来，保护他们这么迫切依赖的石油”。

“In any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally,” he added.

“无论如何，等这场冲突结束，海峡自然会重新开放。”他补充道。

Oil prices surged and stocks sank on Thursday after the address.

讲话发布后，周四全球油价飙升、股市下跌。

The United States has been more insulated from the economic aftershocks of the shutdown of the strait than closer economies in Europe, Asia and Africa. But more expensive global energy and tighter supplies of fertilizer, aluminum, helium and other products from the Middle East are still pushing up prices and slowing economic activity in the United States, creating a problem for the Republican Party as midterm elections approach. Higher fuel costs are trickling into the price of fresh food, and rates for international shipping have risen sharply, adding to the cost of importing goods to the United States.

相比欧洲、亚洲与非洲等邻近经济体，美国受霍尔木兹海峡封锁引发的经济余波影响相对较小。但全球能源价格上涨、中东地区化肥、铝、氦气等产品供应收紧，仍在推高美国国内物价、放缓经济活动，给中期选举临近的共和党带来麻烦。燃油成本上涨正逐步传导至生鲜食品价格，国际航运费率也大幅攀升，进一步抬高美国进口商品成本。

Analysts at Evercore ISI projected on Wednesday that the U.S. economy would grow 2.2 percent this year, rather than 2.8 percent, because of the war and the accompanying energy shock, while core inflation would tick up 0.2 percentage points.

独立研究机构Evercore ISI的分析师周三预测，受战争及伴随而来的能源冲击影响，美国今年经济增速将从2.8%降至2.2%，核心通胀率则将上升0.2个百分点。

“The U.S. is now heading for a subpar year relative to its potential rather than a strong and above-trend year,” they wrote.

“美国今年的经济表现将低于自身潜在增长水平，而非强劲的超预期增长。”他们在报告中写道。

U.S. manufacturers have been quieter about the effect of Chinese rare-earth restrictions, to avoid panicking investors or angering the Chinese government. But many industries are deeply worried about limitations on those shipments and a thinning supply.

为避免引发投资者恐慌、或激怒中国政府，美国制造商对中国稀土限制的影响大多保持低调。但多个行业对稀土出口管控与供应趋紧的局面深感担忧。

China’s controls are having some effect on companies that make M.R.I. and CT machines that use rare earths to do imaging, as well as those that make the magnets inside the machines, said Geoff Martha, the chief executive of Medtronic, a U.S. medical equipment manufacturer, at an event on Monday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

美国医疗设备制造商美敦力首席执行官杰夫·玛莎周一在华盛顿外交关系协会的活动上表示，中国的稀土管控，已对生产核磁共振、CT扫描仪造成影响，这类设备需用稀土实现成像功能；同时也影响了生产设备内部磁铁的公司。

The industry has engaged with the Trump administration and the Chinese government to try to obtain licenses for exports, he said.

他称，该行业已与特朗普政府及中国政府沟通，争取稀土出口许可。

“What we’re finding, it takes work, it creates supply chain disruption, it’s a distraction. But we’re seeing an ability to work through these so far,” Mr. Martha added.

“我们发现，这需要耗费精力，扰乱了供应链，也分散了企业的注意力。但到目前为止，我们仍有办法逐步解决这些问题，”玛莎还说。

Gina M. Raimondo, who was secretary of commerce in the Biden administration, said at the same event that the Trump administration had seemed surprised by China’s move to weaponize mineral supply chains. She was not, she said.

拜登政府时期的商务部长雷蒙多在同一场活动上表示，特朗普政府似乎对中国将矿产供应链用作武器的举动感到意外，但她说，她本人对此并不意外。

“It is a huge leverage point that China has over the United States,” she said. She argued that there were plenty of other levers that the U.S. should be attuned to.

“这是中国牵制美国的一个巨大筹码。”她说。她还指出，美国还需警惕其他大量筹码。

For a typical artificial intelligence data center, for example, “most Americans would be alarmed of the dependency we have on China,” Ms. Raimondo said, adding, “China is very aware of that, and they’re going to do everything they can do to maintain that advantage.”

例如，对于一个典型的人工智能数据中心而言，“大多数美国人如果知道我们对中国的依赖程度，都会感到震惊，”她还说。“中国对此心知肚明，也会竭尽全力维持这一优势。”