After President Donald J. Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese bicycles in 2018, Arnold Kamler, then the chief executive of the bike maker Kent International, saw a curious trend play out in the bicycle industry.

2018年，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国自行车征收关税后，自行车制造商肯特国际的时任首席执行官阿诺德·卡姆勒看到该行业出现了一种奇怪的趋势。

Chinese bicycle factories moved their final manufacturing and assembly operations out of China, setting up new facilities in Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia and India. Using parts mostly from China, those companies made bicycles that they could export directly to the United States — without paying the 25 percent tariff had the bike been shipped straight from China.

中国的自行车厂将其最终制造和组装业务迁出中国，在台湾、越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨和印度建立了新的工厂。这些公司主要使用来自中国的零部件，生产的自行车可以直接出口到美国，无需支付从中国直接运来的25%的关税。

“The net effect of what’s going on with these tariffs is that Chinese factories in China are setting up Chinese factories in other countries,” said Mr. Kamler, whose company imports some bicycles from China and makes others at a South Carolina factory.

卡姆勒说：“这些关税带来的净影响是，中国工厂正在其它国家设立中国工厂，”他的公司的自行车部分从中国进口，还有一部分由南卡罗来纳州的一家工厂生产。

Pushing those factories into other countries resulted in additional costs for companies and consumers, without increasing the amount of manufacturing in the United States, Mr. Kamler said. He said he had been forced to raise his prices several times as a result of the tariffs.

卡姆勒表示，将这些工厂推向其它国家导致公司和消费者的成本增加，但并没有增加美国的制造数量。他说，由于关税，他不得不多次提高价格。

“There’s no real gain here,” said Mr. Kamler, whose bikes are sold at Walmart and other retailers. “It’s very inflationary.”

“没有真正的收益，”他说，他的自行车是通过沃尔玛等零售商出售的。“倒是很容易造成通胀。”

阿诺德·卡姆勒称，由于特朗普2018年的关税政策，他不得不多次提高肯特国际产品的价格。

As Mr. Trump prepares to return to office with sweeping plans to impose more levies on foreign goods, economists and business owners are pointing to unintended consequences that resulted from his tariffs the first time around.

在特朗普准备带着对外国商品征收更多关税的大规模计划重返白宫之际，经济学家和企业主们指出了他第一次征收关税所带来的意想不到的后果。

Beginning in 2018, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign metals, washing machines, solar panels and products from China. His administration said the measures would force companies to set up factories in the United States. President Biden chose to maintain most of those tariffs — and added a few of his own on strategic goods like electric vehicles and semiconductors.

从2018年开始，特朗普对价值数千亿美元的中国金属、洗衣机、太阳能板和其它产品产品征收关税。他的政府表示，这些措施将迫使企业在美国设厂。拜登总统选择维持这些关税中的大部分，并在电动汽车和半导体等战略商品上增加了一些他自己的关税。

Some industries that compete with cheap Chinese products — like apparel and cabinet makers — credit those tariffs with keeping American manufacturers in business.

一些与中国廉价产品竞争的行业（如服装和橱柜制造商）认为，这些关税使美国制造商得以存续。

But for many other industries, the tariffs simply spurred a global reshuffling of manufacturing operations, one that did little to strengthen U.S. production or reduce ties with Chinese firms. Companies have merely shifted their factories to other low-cost countries in Asia or Latin America instead, and U.S. imports from those countries have surged.

但对许多其它行业来说，关税只是刺激了全球制造业的重新洗牌，对加强美国生产或减少与中国企业的关联没有什么作用。企业只是把工厂转移到了亚洲或拉丁美洲的其它低成本国家，而美国从这些国家的进口也激增。

Some companies have severed their ties with China. But others have retained close connections, even as they have moved their operations out of China. Economists say many companies, both Chinese and multinational, have continued to rely on Chinese products and parts, which are now flowing into the United States from factories set up outside China’s borders.

一些公司切断了与中国的关联。但也有一些公司在将业务迁出中国的同时仍与中国保持着密切联系。经济学家称，许多公司，无论是中国公司还是跨国公司，都继续依赖中国的产品和零部件，而这些产品和零部件现在正从中国境外设立的工厂流入美国。

In other words, some Chinese products are merely taking a longer trip around the world on their way to the United States, in an attempt to avoid tariffs. Rather than making global supply chains stronger and more diversified, economists say, this may be weakening them — while adding costs for companies and consumers.

换句话说，一些中国产品只是在运往美国的途中绕了些路，以求规避关税。经济学家表示，这非但没有使全球供应链变得更坚固、更多样化，反而可能会削弱它们，同时增加企业和消费者的成本。

去上夜班的越南工厂工人。越南是贸易和投资的“连接国”。

In a speech in May, Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said trade and investment were being rerouted through what she called “connector countries,” partly offsetting the erosion of more direct links between the United States and China.

国际货币基金组织第一副总裁吉塔·戈皮纳特在今年5月的一次演讲中表示，贸易和投资正在通过她所称的“连接国”转向，这在一定程度上抵消了对美国和中国之间的直接联系的削弱效果。

The role of these connector countries, most notably Mexico and Vietnam, “may have helped cushion the global economic impact of direct trade decoupling between the U.S. and China,” Ms. Gopinath said. “But whether it has helped to diversify exposures and increase supply chain resilience remains an open question.”

这些连接国（尤其是墨西哥和越南）的作用“可能有助于缓解中美直接贸易脱钩对全球经济的影响”，戈皮纳特说。“但这是否有助于分散风险和提高供应链的弹性，仍是一个未决问题。”

Brad Setser, an economist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the main effect of U.S. levies on China was to encourage companies to “find a way around the bilateral tariff.”

美国对外关系委员会高级研究员、经济学家布拉德·塞泽尔表示，美国对华征税的主要作用是鼓励企业“想办法绕过双边关税”。

“It reduces bilateral trade; it doesn’t impact global trade,” he said.

他说：“这会减少双边贸易，但不会影响全球贸易。”

Mr. Setser added that China’s role as a global exporter had not diminished, and that neither had the United States’ role as an importer. It was just the countries through which trade was being routed that had shifted.

塞泽尔还说，中国作为全球出口国的作用没有减弱，美国作为进口国的作用也没有减弱。只是贸易的途经国发生了变化。

“Even though we have less direct bilateral trade, in a global sense, there’s one surplus country, China, and there’s one deficit country, the U.S.,” Mr. Setser said. “We are still interconnected indirectly.”

“尽管我们的直接双边贸易较少，但从全球意义上讲，有一个顺差国——中国，有一个逆差国——美国，”塞泽尔说。“我们仍然间接地相互关联。”

Trade data reflects this: The gap between the goods the United States exports to and imports from China narrowed to $278 billion in 2023 from $417 billion in 2018. While that level is set to rebound this year, economists say U.S. imports of goods from China that are covered by tariffs have clearly dropped.

贸易数据反映了这一点：美国出口到中国的商品与从中国进口的商品之间的差距从2018年的4170亿美元缩小到2023年的2780亿美元。虽然这一水平今年将有所反弹，但经济学家表示，美国从中国进口的关税商品明显减少。

中国江苏省连云港港。一位经济学家称，中国作为全球出口国的作用并未减弱。

At the same time, China’s exports globally have surged, and U.S. trade deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Canada and elsewhere have been widening. Economists say exports to the United States from some of those countries now contain more Chinese parts and raw materials than they did before.

与此同时，中国的全球出口激增，美国与越南、台湾、墨西哥、加拿大和其它国家的贸易逆差不断扩大。经济学家称，其中一些国家对美国的出口比以前包含了更多的中国零部件和原材料。

Mr. Trump and his advisers are eyeing these new back doors that Chinese products are using to enter the United States. Mr. Trump has proposed an additional 60 percent tariff on U.S. imports from China, as well as a “universal” tariff of 10 to 20 percent on goods from elsewhere.

特朗普和他的顾问们盯上了中国产品进入美国的这些新后门。特朗普已提议对从中国进口的美国产品额外征收60%的关税，并对来自其它地方的商品征收10%至20%的“普遍”关税。

He and his advisers also appear to have doubts about the trade deal they renegotiated with Mexico, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A. They want to adjust its rules to try to ensure that more Chinese cars and auto parts will not find their way to the United States through Mexico.

他和他的顾问们似乎还对他们与墨西哥重新谈判达成的贸易协定（即《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》）心存疑虑。他们希望调整该协定的规则，以确保不会有更多的中国汽车和汽车零部件通过墨西哥进入美国。

But it is unclear how effective their efforts will be against the creativity of global companies that are driven by strong financial incentives to maintain access to the U.S. market.

但是，目前还不清楚他们的努力能在多大程度上有效抵御全球公司的创造性应对方式，这些公司受到强烈的经济动力刺激，希望保持进入美国市场的机会。

In industry after industry, Chinese companies have found footholds abroad that allow them to bypass trade barriers with the United States. After the United States put hefty tariffs on Chinese solar panels, for example, many Chinese companies opened solar factories in Southeast Asia. U.S. solar companies have initiated trade cases, successfully appealing to the government for more protection from these factories.

在一个又一个行业中，中国公司在海外找到了立足点，从而绕过了与美国的贸易壁垒。例如，在美国对中国太阳能板征收高额关税后，许多中国公司在东南亚开设了太阳能工厂。美国太阳能公司已提起贸易诉讼，吁请政府保护它们避免与这些工厂的竞争，并取得了成功。

墨西哥城的一家汽车经销商。特朗普希望调整《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》，以确保更多的中国汽车和汽车零部件不能通过墨西哥进入美国。

U.S. efforts to block critical minerals and electric vehicle batteries from China from receiving government subsidies have also pushed Chinese companies to set up battery-making subsidiaries in Morocco and Singapore.

美国努力阻止来自中国的关键矿产和电动汽车电池获得政府补贴，这也促使中国公司在摩洛哥和新加坡设立电池生产子公司。

And in China, companies like Sailwin, Vanzbon and Tetakawi are advertising services helping Chinese companies find factory space in Mexico and recruit workers there, giving them a base to export to the United States without paying tariffs.

而在中国，洲讯(Sailwin)、万企帮(Vanzbon)和Tetakawi等公司在推广自己的服务，称它们可以帮助中国公司在墨西哥寻找厂房和招聘员工，给它们建立一个免关税出口美国的基地。

“Seize the opportunity in Mexico and seize the market,” read one online Chinese-language ad. “Mexico is adjacent to the United States, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (U.S.M.C.A.) allows companies to easily access the North American market.”

“抓住墨西哥的机遇，抢占市场”，一则在线中文广告这样写道。“墨西哥毗邻美国，《北美自由贸易协定》使企业能够轻松进入北美市场。”

Some of these moves may emanate from a natural desire by Chinese companies to cater to global markets, especially at a time when China’s domestic economy and consumer demand are relatively weak. But economists and business owners say some of it is undoubtedly an effort to circumvent Mr. Trump’s 2018 China tariffs, which the Biden administration has kept in place.

其中一些举动可能源于中国企业迎合全球市场的本能意愿，尤其是在中国国内经济和消费需求相对疲软的时候。但经济学家和企业主表示，其中一些举措无疑是为了规避特朗普2018年提出并在拜登任内得以延续的关税。

In some cases, global companies have also used accounting and tax tricks to make it appear that their shipments from China are lower, and thus pay fewer tariffs, without making major changes to their supply chains.

在某些情况下，跨国公司还利用会计和税务手段，使其来自中国的货物看起来更少，从而支付更少的关税，并无需对其供应链进行重大调整。

Lynlee Brown, a partner in Ernst & Young’s global trade practice, said there were many strategies that companies could pursue to reduce the tariffs they paid, having to do with the way U.S. customs officials assign tariff rates to different products.

安永会计师事务所全球贸易业务合伙人林莉·布朗表示，企业可以采取许多策略来降低它们支付的关税，这与美国海关官员为不同产品分配不同税率的方式有关。

For example, an electronics company might move one important stage of its supply chain out of China and into Vietnam. That could allow the company to report to U.S. customs agents that the export came from Vietnam, even if the good is still finished in China and exported from China to the United States.

例如，一家电子公司可能会将其供应链的一个重要部分从中国转移到越南。这样，即使产品仍在中国完成并从中国出口到美国，该公司也可以向美国海关人员上报称出口来自越南。

越南海防市的一家在建工厂。中国的全球出口激增，美国与越南和其他国家的贸易逆差也在不断扩大。

Another lever companies could play with, Ms. Brown said, is valuation. They can officially lower the value of the import by stripping out certain “intangible” costs, like payments for intellectual property, royalties, brand or research and development, and recording those to other global subsidiaries. By lowering the value of the import, they then pay a lower tariff.

布朗说，公司可以利用的另一个杠杆是估值。它们可以通过剔除某些“无形”成本，如知识产权、特许权使用费、品牌或研发费用，将其记录到其它全球子公司的账面上，从而降低明面上的进口价值。降低了进口价值，就可以降低需付的关税。

It is unclear how much tactics like this have lowered the recorded value of trade between the United States and China, without really changing physical trade flows. U.S. customs duties spiked after the tariffs went into effect, but have fallen back since the beginning of 2022, possibly reflecting some of these changes.

目前还不清楚这样的策略在多大程度上降低了中美贸易的账面价值，同时又没有真正影响实际的贸易量。关税生效后，美国海关关税飙升，但自2022年初开始回落，可能反映了一些这类的变化。

But Ms. Brown said tax and accounting methods had allowed some companies to lower their tariff burden without changing “their physical supply chain at all.”

但布朗表示，税收和会计方法使一些公司能够在不改变“实际供应链”的情况下降低关税负担。

“They did some fancy footwork within the customs regulations that impacts the value they declared for the products,” she said.

“它们在海关规定范围内做了一些花哨的手脚，影响了它们申报的产品价值，”她说。

Alan Wm. Wolff, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former deputy director general of the World Trade Organization, said he anticipated an attempt by the Trump administration to follow Chinese trade further down the path it was taking through other countries to the United States.

彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员、世界贸易组织前副总干事艾伦·沃尔夫表示，他预计特朗普政府将试图继续追踪中国贸易通过其它国家进入美国的路径。

But ultimately, those trade measures would not affect the U.S. economy much if the United States and China did not make bigger economic changes, he said.

但他说，如果美国和中国不进行更大的经济变革，这些贸易措施最终不会对美国经济产生太大影响。

“The U.S. has a trade deficit of a trillion dollars,” he said. “If we don’t change our macroeconomic policies, we’re going to have a trade deficit of a trillion dollars rearranged.”

“美国的贸易赤字高达万亿美元，”他说。“如果不改变我们的宏观经济政策，我们仍将有1万亿美元的贸易赤字，只不过是重新分配过的。”