China has in recent weeks staged military drills off Australia and Vietnam, sending pointed warnings near and far. Neither was a full-fledged exercise. But taken together, China’s recent shows of force, experts said, conveyed a message: the region must not ignore Beijing’s power and claims.

最近几周，中国在澳大利亚和越南附近海域举行了军事演习，向远近各国发出了直白的警告。两次都不是全面演习。但专家们表示，综合来看，中国最近的武力展示传达了一个信息：该地区绝不能无视北京的实力和主张。

Three Chinese naval ships, including a cruiser with 112 missile tubes, showed up in the waters near Australia this month, only announcing plans to fire artillery for practice after the exercise had started. A few days later, on Monday, Chinese forces held live-fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin, after Vietnam pressed its territorial claims in the gulf. Meanwhile, Chinese military aircraft buzz the skies near Taiwan almost daily.

2月，三艘中国海军舰艇出现在澳大利亚附近海域，包括一艘载有112个导弹发射管的巡洋舰，它们在演习开始后才宣布实弹演练的计划。在几天后的周一，中国军队在越南一直坚持领土主张的北部湾举行了实弹演习。与此同时，中国军机几乎每天都在台湾附近的天空盘旋。

While Washington is consumed with other matters, from Ukraine and the Middle East to budget cuts at the Pentagon, China keeps pressing. The exercises, while relatively brief, highlight that China’s military reach is likely to keep growing, regardless of whether the Trump administration ultimately tries to confront China or pull it into some kind of deal.

当华盛顿忙于从乌克兰和中东到五角大楼的预算削减等其他事务时，中国在不断施压。这些演习虽然相对短暂，但凸显出中国的军事影响力可能继续增长，无论特朗普政府最终是打算对抗中国，还是力促与其达成某种协议。

The series of drills aimed to show scale and scope, “showcasing China’s expanding naval capabilities and ability to project power across multiple theaters simultaneously,” said Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow with the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

这一系列演习旨在展示规模和范围，“展示中国不断扩大的海军能力和同时在多个战区投射力量的能力，”总部在新加坡的尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所的访问学者阮克江说。

“The timing, with many in the Indo-Pacific region concerned about the U.S. commitments under President Donald Trump, is just perfect.”

“这是个完美的时机，印太地区许多人正对特朗普总统领导下美国的承诺感到担忧。”

The People’s Liberation Army had been growing more active long before Mr. Trump took office, and China held far larger exercises near Taiwan last year. In its own sometimes ominous way, experts said, China is trying to persuade governments in the Asia-Pacific region that, like it or not, their future lies in accommodating Beijing. And that includes its claims to democratically governed Taiwan and over much of the South China Sea, which is disputed by Vietnam and other countries.

早在特朗普上台之前，中国人民解放军就已经变得越来越活跃，去年，中国在台湾附近举行了规模大得多的演习。专家们表示，中国正试图以自己的方式说服亚太地区各国政府，不管你喜不喜欢，它们的未来都取决于能否顺应北京。这包括中国对民主治理的台湾，以及对南海大部分海域的主权要求，越南和其他国家对这些海域的主权有争议。

北京的视频显示中国去年在台湾海峡的军事演习。

Beijing’s message may gain more traction if American influence in the region ebbs.

如果美国在该地区的影响力减弱，北京的信息就会产生更大的影响力。

“In purely military terms, these actions — the live firing training or three ships in seas near Australia — don’t have much significance,” said Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, an organization in Taipei that is funded by Taiwan’s ministry of defense. “But they can be seen as political signaling.”

“从纯粹军事角度来看，这些行动——实弹射击训练，或者三艘军舰在澳大利亚附近海域活动——没有太大意义，但它们可以被视为政治信号，”台湾国防安全研究所研究员苏紫云说。该研究所位于台北，由台湾国防部资助。

Dan Blumenthal, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington who studies East Asian security, said that China’s displays of military power should not be dismissed as mere theater. The displays matter because they are backed by a real and growing ability by China’s leaders to raise the military stakes in disputes.

华盛顿美国企业研究所研究东亚安全问题的高级研究员丹·布卢门撒尔说，中国展示军事力量不应被视为纯粹的表演。这些展示之所以重要，是因为它们背后有中国领导人在争端中提高军事赌注的真实能力，而且这种能力正在不断增强。

“The low-intensity war that China conducts daily only works if the threat to escalate conventionally is credible,” he said in an interview.

“只有在常规战争升级的威胁可信的情况下，中国每天进行的低强度战争才会奏效，”他在接受采访时说。

Asian governments have long turned to Washington to offset Chinese power in the region. But Mr. Trump has sent contradictory signals about whether he wants to contain or cooperate with Beijing — or, somehow, both. He has ideas for a big trade deal with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and has sometimes spoken admiringly of Mr. Xi, but has also imposed additional tariffs and trade restrictions on China, with more set to come.

亚洲各国政府长期以来一直指望华盛顿来抵消中国在该地区的影响力。但对于究竟是想遏制中国还是与中国合作，或者以某种方式做到两者兼顾，特朗普发出了自相矛盾的信号。他表示希望与中国领导人习近平达成大型贸易协议，有时还对习近平赞誉有加；但他同时也对中国征收额外关税并实施贸易限制，而且还将有更多措施。

Mr. Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has called for big cuts in American military spending across much of the globe so that the United States can concentrate on countering China in the Asia-Pacific. Yet it remains unclear whether and how that shift will happen. Mr. Trump has also complained that Asian countries spend too little on their defense.

特朗普的国防部长皮特·海格塞斯呼吁大幅削减美国在全球大部分地区的军费开支，以便美国能够集中精力在亚太地区对抗中国。然而，目前尚不清楚这种转变是否会发生，以及如何发生。特朗普还抱怨亚洲国家的国防开支太少。

The Trump administration has not commented on the recent Chinese drills, and the White House has yet to spell out a broader plan for the region.

特朗普政府尚未对中国最近的演习发表评论，白宫也尚未阐明在该地区的更广泛计划。

2019年，美国总统特朗普和中国领导人习近平在日本大阪。

Vietnam mostly fears being caught in a tidal wave of Trump tariffs after leaning closer to the United States on security in recent years. The country of 100 million people has sought to keep relations with the United States and China in balance. Vietnam did not respond strongly to the drills held in the Gulf of Tonkin on Monday, though they occurred a few days after Vietnam reinforced its rival territorial claims in the Gulf with what is known as a new baseline declaration. Experts said the drills were within China’s maritime boundary, and seemed to be smaller than previous efforts.

近年来在安全问题方面向美国靠拢的越南主要担心被卷入特朗普的关税浪潮。这个拥有一亿人口的国家一直寻求与美国和中国保持平衡的关系。越南没有对周一北部湾的演习做出强烈反应，不过在几天前，越南通过所谓的新基线声明，加强了其在北部湾地区的领土主张。专家表示，此次演习发生在中国的海上边界之内，规模似乎比之前的演习要小。

Like Vietnam, Australia has tried to maintain ties to both China, a major trade partner, and the United States, its primary ally for defense. After a thaw in relations with Beijing, which had shunned and punished Australia over political and diplomatic disputes, the arrival of three Chinese navy vessels struck much of Australia as a setback, if not outright intimidation.

和越南一样，澳大利亚一直试图保持与主要贸易伙伴中国和主要防务盟友美国的关系。此前，中国曾因政治和外交争端冷落澳大利亚，并对其进行惩罚，在澳中关系解冻之后，三艘中国海军舰艇的到来即使不是直接的恐吓，也让很多澳大利亚人感觉是一种倒退。

The warships were cruising in the Tasman Sea, without having previously declared the mission — according to Australian officials — as the top U.S. commander for the region, Adm. Samuel J. Paparo, finished a three-day trip to Australia. Earlier this month, Admiral Paparo warned that American forces were ill-prepared for China’s military buildup in the Asia-Pacific.

澳大利亚官员称，中国军舰在塔斯曼海巡航时没有事先宣布这一任务。此前美国在该地区的最高指挥官塞缪尔·帕帕罗上将刚刚结束对澳大利亚为期三天的访问。上个月早些时候，帕帕罗警告称，美国军队对中国在亚太地区的军事建设准备不足。

China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, said the ships did not pose a threat.

中国驻澳大利亚大使肖千表示，这些舰船不构成威胁。

“As a major power in this region, as a country that has so many things to look after, it is normal for China to send their vessels to different parts of the region to conduct various kinds of activities,” Ambassador Xiao said, in an interview with Australia’s main public broadcaster.

肖千在接受澳大利亚主要公共广播电台采访时表示：“作为本地区的一个大国，作为一个有很多事情要处理的国家，中国派遣舰船到本地区的不同地方开展各种活动是正常的。”

The warships were outside Australia’s territorial waters, but they traveled within about 150 nautical miles of Sydney. Anxiety there grew after the Chinese naval ships said last week that they were holding live fire exercises, and 49 commercial planes were forced to suddenly divert their routes to avoid the area. A New Zealand frigate said it had spotted firing from one of the Chinese warships on Saturday.

三艘军舰当时在澳大利亚领海之外，但行驶在距离悉尼约150海里的范围内。上周，中国海军舰艇表示，它们正在进行实弹演习，当时49架民航飞机被迫突然改变航线，以避开该地区，此后当地焦虑情绪不断升温。一艘新西兰护卫舰表示，它在周六看到一艘中国军舰在进行射击。

New Zealand’s defense minister, Judith Collins, said the drills were the “most significant” that region has seen from China. Australian officials said Beijing did not provide proper notice.

新西兰国防部长朱迪思·柯林斯表示，此次是该地区看到的“最重要的”中国演习。澳大利亚官员表示，北京没有提供适当的通知。

The most acute uncertainties about the role of the United States in Asia are perhaps felt by Taiwan, which has for decades relied on Washington for military and political support and is regularly tested by Chinese military forces. In addition to the Chinese aircraft that flew near Taiwan this week, Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Wednesday that Chinese ships had warned that they planned to hold live fire training to the south of the island. But the ships ultimately did not fire any weapons there, two Taiwanese security officials said, on condition of anonymity.

台湾几十年来一直依赖华盛顿的军事和政治支持，并经常受到中国军队的挑衅。除了上周在台湾附近飞行的中国飞机外，台湾国防部上周三还表示，中国舰艇曾警告，他们计划在台湾岛南部举行实弹射击训练。但两名不愿透露姓名的台湾安全官员说，这些船只最终没有在那里发射任何武器。

Mr. Trump’s recent actions, including turning against embattled Ukraine, have magnified anxieties among Taiwanese policymakers. Mr. Trump has also demanded that Taiwan dramatically increase its military spending, and this week he refused to say whether the United States would step in if China launched a war against Taiwan.

特朗普最近的行动，包括不支持陷入战争泥潭的乌克兰，加剧了台湾政策制定者的焦虑。特朗普还要求台湾大幅增加军费开支，他拒绝透露如果中国对台湾发动战争，美国是否会介入。

2023年在台湾举行的军事演习。特朗普要求台湾大幅增加军费开支。

“I never comment on that. I don’t comment on any — because I don’t want to ever put myself in that position,” Mr. Trump said in answer to a reporter’s question about stopping China from using force to take Taiwan. “And if I said it, I certainly wouldn’t be saying it to you.”

“我从不对这事发表评论。我对任何都不评论——因为我不想把自己放在那种处境，”特朗普在回答记者关于阻止中国使用武力占领台湾的问题时说。“就算要说，也肯定不会跟你说。”

Mr. Trump’s unwillingness to comment on the defense of Taiwan echoed the calculated ambiguity of previous decades of U.S. policy, when administrations also avoided clearly committing to entering war over Taiwan. President Biden, however, had repeatedly said that Washington would intervene.

特朗普不愿就保卫台湾问题发表评论，与美国过去几十年的政策中经深思熟虑的模糊态度如出一辙，历任政府避免明确承诺就台湾问题参战。不过，拜登总统曾一再表示，华盛顿将进行干预。

Mr. Trump’s administration includes longtime supporters of Taiwan, such as the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, but Mr. Trump may undercut their influence with his demands toward Taiwan and attention on bargaining with China’s leader, Mr. Xi.

特朗普的政府中包括国务卿马可·鲁比奥等台湾的长期支持者，但特朗普对台湾的要求，以及他对与中国领导人习近平讨价还价的兴趣，可能会削弱这些人的影响力。

After his comment on Taiwan, Mr. Trump said: “But I can tell you what, I have a great relationship with President Xi. I’ve had a great relationship with him. We want them to come in and invest.”

在就台湾问题发表评论后，特朗普说：“但我可以告诉你，我和习主席关系很好。我和他关系很好。我们希望他们来投资。”