President Trump taunted China in his first term, claiming his tariffs had led to the loss of five million jobs there. In a 2019 tweet, he said his trade policies had put China “back on its heels.”

特朗普总统在第一个任期内曾嘲笑中国，声称他的关税导致中国失去了500万个工作岗位。在2019年的一条推文中，他表示，他的贸易政策让中国“陷入困境”。

Economists sharply disputed how much pain Mr. Trump’s tariffs caused, but the message underscored the centrality of jobs to China’s export-reliant economy.

经济学家对特朗普的关税造成了多大的痛苦提出了尖锐的质疑，但特朗普这番言论还是凸显了就业在依赖出口的中国经济中的核心地位。

Four months into Mr. Trump’s second term, the United States and China are again negotiating over tariffs, and the Chinese labor market, especially factory jobs, is front and center. This time, China’s economy is struggling, leaving its workers more vulnerable. A persistent property slowdown that got worse during the Covid-19 pandemic has wiped out jobs and made people feel poorer. New university graduates are pouring into the labor pool at a time when the unemployment rate among young workers is in the double digits.

特朗普第二任期开始四个月后，美国和中国再次就关税问题进行谈判，中国的劳动力市场，尤其是工厂的就业岗位，是谈判的焦点。这一次，中国经济举步维艰，工人的处境愈发窘迫。在新冠大流行期间，房地产市场持续放缓，情况变得更糟，导致就业机会消失，人们感到更加贫穷。年轻工人的失业率达到两位数，同时新的大学毕业生还在涌入劳动力市场。

“The situation is clearly much worse,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the investment bank Natixis.

“情况显然严重恶化了，”投资银行法国外贸银行亚太地区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗说。

As employment opportunities in other sectors disappear, she said, the importance of preserving China’s 100 million manufacturing jobs has grown.

她说，随着其他行业的就业机会消失，保护中国1亿制造业就业岗位的重要性与日俱增。

This month, Chinese and U.S. officials agreed to temporarily reduce the punishing tariffs they had imposed on each other while they tried to avert a return to an all-out trade war that would threaten to undermine both economies.

本月，中国和美国官员同意暂时减少对彼此征收的高额关税，同时试图避免重新爆发可能损害两国经济的全面贸易战。

In a research report, Natixis said that if U.S. tariffs stayed at their current levels of at least 30 percent, exports to the United States would fall by half, resulting in a loss of up to six million manufacturing jobs. If the trade war resumes again in full, the job losses could surge to nine million.

法国外贸银行在一份研究报告中表示，如果美国的关税保持在目前至少30%的水平，对美国的出口将减少一半，导致多达600万个制造业就业岗位流失。如果贸易战再次全面爆发，失业人数可能会飙升至900万人。

广州的招聘信息，这里是中国许多制衣厂的所在地。

China’s economy has struggled to recover from the pandemic, expanding more slowly than in the years of Mr. Trump’s first term, when growth was more than 6 percent a year. Although the Chinese government has said it is targeting growth of around 5 percent this year, many economists have predicted that the actual figure will not reach those levels.

中国经济一直在努力从疫情中复苏，其增长速度比特朗普第一个任期的几年还要慢，当时的年增长率超过6%。尽管中国政府表示，今年的增长目标是5%左右，但许多经济学家预测，实际数字将达不到这一水平。

In early 2018, China said its urban jobless rate had fallen to 15-year lows and the country had created a record number of new jobs. Since then, government crackdowns and tighter regulations have subdued industries like technology and online education — once-thriving sectors that created heaps of new jobs.

2018年初，中国表示，城镇失业率降至15年来的最低水平，新增就业岗位创造了记录。从那以后，政府的严厉打击和更严格的监管压制了科技和在线教育等曾经繁荣的行业，这些行业创造了大量新的就业机会。

Over those years, unemployment climbed especially among young people. The jobless rate among 16-to-24-year-olds was 15.8 percent in April, an improvement from the previous month. However, the figure is expected to surge again when 12 million new college graduates join the work force this year.

失业率在此后数年里攀升，尤其是年轻人的失业率。4月，16至24岁年轻人的失业率为15.8%，较上月有所改善。然而，随着今年1200万应届大学毕业生加入劳动力大军，这一数字预计将再次飙升。

In 2023, when youth unemployment figures reached a record 21.3 percent, the Chinese government suspended the release of the figures. At the time, one prominent economist claimed that the actual figure was closer to 50 percent. Beijing started distributing the figures again last year with a new methodology that lowered the jobless rate.

2023年，当青年失业率达到创纪录的21.3%时，中国政府暂停了数据的发布。当时，一位著名的经济学家称实际数字接近50%。中国政府去年开始重新发布这些数据，采用了降低失业率的新统计方法。

At the same time, even those with jobs are in a more precarious position. Fewer companies are offering full-time employment, turning instead to gig workers for services like food delivery and manufacturing. While those jobs offer workers more flexibility, they usually pay less and provide few job protections or benefits.

与此同时，即使是那些有工作的人，处境也更加岌岌可危。提供全职工作的公司越来越少，取而代之的是送餐等服务和制造业的零工。虽然这些工作为员工提供了更大的灵活性，但工资通常较低，而且几乎不提供就业保障或福利。

The United States, for its part, has its own liabilities. American industry is deeply dependent on rare earth metals and critical minerals controlled largely by China, while a halt in Chinese goods heightens inflation risk and could contribute to disruptive product shortages.

美国也有自己的问题。美国工业严重依赖主要由中国控制的稀土金属和关键矿产，而中国商品的停止供应增加了通胀风险，并可能导致破坏性的产品短缺。

If the negotiations boil down to which country is able to withstand more economic hardship, China has an advantage in “trade war endurance,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London research firm focused on China. Beijing can tamp down discontent over labor market shocks more readily than American politicians can withstand anger over empty store shelves, she said.

专注于中国的伦敦研究公司伊诺多经济(Enodo Economics)的首席经济学家戴安·乔伊列娃说，如果谈判最终取决于哪个国家能够承受更大的经济困难，中国在“贸易战耐力”方面具有优势。她说，北京可以更轻易地平息对劳动力市场冲击的不满，而美国政界人士却无法承受民众对商店货架空无一物的愤怒。

According to official data, in April, before the United States and China agreed to suspend the heaviest tariffs, new export orders from China fell to their lowest level since 2022. Even over a one-month period, the sky-high tariffs took a toll on employment.

根据官方数据，在美国和中国同意暂停征收最高关税之前的4月，中国的新出口订单降至2022年以来的最低水平。即使在一个月的时间里，高昂的关税也对就业造成了影响。

In Guangzhou, the center of China’s garment industry, businesses had closed as orders from foreign buyers dropped before the ultrahigh tariffs were paused. Many said the drop in orders forced them to hire fewer workers.

在中国服装工业中心广州，由于外国买家的订单减少，在超高关税暂停之前，企业已经纷纷关闭。许多公司表示，订单的减少迫使他们减少了员工数量。

中国烟台的招聘会。目前青年失业率高达两位数，同时每年有数以百万计的新大学毕业生进入劳动力市场。

Jane Hu, an office worker in Shanghai, said she lost her job last month, not because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, but from China’s countermeasure to raise duties on American imports to 125 percent.

上海的办公室职员简·胡（音）说，她上个月丢了工作，不是因为特朗普的关税，而是因为中国将美国进口商品的关税提高到125%的反制措施。

She said her former employer, a construction equipment company that had depended on bringing machinery into China from the United States, could not afford the tariffs, which more than doubled the costs of imports.

她说，她的前雇主是一家依靠从美国向中国进口机械的建筑设备公司，该公司无法承受使进口成本增加了一倍多的关税。

This compounded problems the business was already facing because of the property slowdown. Sales declined about 40 percent, making layoffs unavoidable.

由于房地产市场放缓，这家公司本已面临问题，如今情况变得更加复杂。销售额下降了约40%，裁员在所难免。

At 33, Ms. Hu is worried she has too much experience for entry-level positions. Many companies are hesitant to hire women like her who are married without children because they do not want to have to potentially cover the cost of parental leave, she said. Women in her age group have a saying, she said: “We are old and expensive. Why would any company choose us?”

33岁的胡女士担心，她的资历对于初级职位来说显得过高。她说许多公司不愿雇佣像她这样已婚没有孩子的女性，因为他们不想承担产假的潜在代价。她说，她这个年龄段的女性有一种说法：“我们又老又贵，企业凭什么要你？”

She said she had landed only two job interviews. To bring in additional income, Ms. Hu started driving occasionally for ride-hailing services.

她说，她只得到过两次面试机会。为了赚取额外收入，她开始偶尔开网约车。

北京的一名送餐员。随着提供全职工作的公司越来越少，中国的许多工人开始转向打零工。

In late April, Yu Jiadong, a top official at China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said the government had prepared a number of measures to keep employment stable, especially for Chinese exporters. He said Beijing would help companies keep their workers, and he encouraged entrepreneurship for the unemployed.

4月下旬，中国人力资源和社会保障部高级官员俞家栋表示，政府已经准备了一系列措施来保持就业稳定，特别是对中国的出口企业。他说，中国政府将帮助企业留住工人，并鼓励失业者创业。

With so much at stake, sensitivities around employment are heightened. One factory owner in southern China, who asked not to be identified, said he had planned to lay off staff but held off when customers rushed to fill orders after the tariff truce. A government official had told him that if he needed to cut his work force, he should do so properly and quietly to avoid creating a stir.

由于事关重大，就业相关的问题也变得愈发敏感。中国南方一位不愿意透露姓名的工厂主表示，他曾计划裁员，但在关税休战后，由于客户急于交货，他推迟了裁员计划。一位政府官员曾告诉他，如果他需要裁员，他应该以适当的方式悄悄地进行，以免引起轰动。

Factory owners who employ salaried workers are required by law to compensate them in a layoff, said Han Dongfang, the founder of China Labor Bulletin, which tracks factory closures and worker protests. Usually, they are required to pay one month’s salary for every year of employment, making layoffs such an expensive prospect that some factories close down without notice, and the owners disappear.

追踪工厂倒闭和工人抗议活动的《中国劳工通讯》创办人韩东方说，法律规定，雇用领薪工人的工厂主必须在裁员时给予工人补偿。通常的要求是每一年工龄就要支付一个月的工资，这使得裁员变得昂贵，以至于一些工厂在没有通知的情况下突然关闭，老板也随之消失。

Employment activity outside the manufacturing sector has contracted for more than two years, according to a monthly survey of industrial firms. The trade war has made firms more wary, adding another concerning factor for job-seeking college graduates.

根据对工业企业的月度调查，制造业以外的就业活动已经收缩了两年多。贸易战使企业更加谨慎，这给找工作的大学毕业生增加了另一个担忧因素。

“The current job market is much worse than before,” said Laura Wang, 23, a graduate student studying accounting in Chongqing. Ms. Wang said that more than 80 percent of her classmates were struggling to find jobs.

“现在的就业市场比以前糟糕多了，”23岁的劳拉·王（音）说，她是在重庆学会计专业的研究生。王女士说，她班上80%以上的同学在找工作上遇到困难。

She said the market was especially rough for students in finance and accounting. The few jobs and internships that are available have significantly higher requirements. The tariff-related upheaval has left businesses unlikely to take a chance on someone without a proven track record.

她说市场对金融和会计专业的学生来说尤其艰难。为数不多的工作和实习机会要求明显更高。与关税相关的动荡使企业不太可能冒险聘用没有良好业绩记录的人。

“There are a lot of uncertainties,” Ms. Wang said. “For fresh graduates with no experience like me, the impact is even greater.”

“有很多不确定因素，”王女士说。“对于像我这样没有经验的应届毕业生来说，影响更大。”