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中国对日本报复行动升级,意图起到震慑作用

王月眉

2025年11月18日

上周三,中国领导人习近平在人民大会堂出席一个仪式。 Pool photo by Maxim Shemetov

Since the new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggested that her country could intervene militarily if China moved to seize Taiwan, Beijing has warned Chinese tourists to stay away from Japan. It has also sent military ships to patrol disputed waters and has threatened to suspend economic or diplomatic exchanges with Tokyo.

自日本新任首相高市早苗暗示若中国采取行动夺取台湾,日本可能军事干预以来,北京已警告中国游客避免前往日本。中国还向争议海域派出军舰巡逻,并威胁要暂停与东京的经济或外交往来。

The goal, in such a full-throated response, seems to be to cow Japan into submission and to show off China’s confidence in its superpower status. A post by a blog affiliated with China’s state broadcaster declared that China had defeated Japan in World War II when it was much poorer than today. “Now, we not only have an iron will, but also an iron torrent,” the account said, referring to China’s military buildup.

中国如此强势回应似乎意在震慑日本,迫使其屈服,并彰显中国作为超级大国的自信。一个隶属于中国官方媒体的公众号发文宣称,中国在远比现在贫穷的二战时期都曾打败日本。“现在,我们不仅有钢铁意志,还有钢铁洪流,”该账号在谈到中国的军队建设时写道。

In a sign that China’s response had triggered serious concern in Tokyo, Japan on Monday dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing to meet with Chinese officials and to discuss the tensions. China is Japan’s largest trading partner, as well as one of the biggest sources of tourists to Japan.

有信号表明中国的回应已引发东京的严重担忧,日本周一派出一名高级外交官前往北京,会见中国官员并讨论紧张局势。中国是日本最大的贸易伙伴,也是日本最大的游客来源国之一。

17INT CHINA JAPAN 01 hzwf master1050周日,一个中国旅行团在东京银座购物区游览。

But the aggressive approach also risks backfiring — not only in Japan, where China’s response has prompted accusations of bullying, but also in other countries wary of China’s attempts at economic coercion and growing assertiveness on the world stage. A Chinese diplomat in Japan deleted a social media post in which he had called for Ms. Takaichi to be beheaded, after the post provoked widespread criticism.

但这种强硬做法也可能适得其反——中国的反应不仅在日本引发了有关霸凌的指责,在其他国家,中国试图施加经济胁迫以及在国际舞台上日益强硬的做法也引发了警惕。在引发广泛批评后,一名中国驻日外交官删除了他在社交媒体上呼吁将高市早苗斩首的贴文。

The flare-up began earlier this month, after Ms. Takaichi was asked in Japan’s Parliament about potential “survival-threatening situations,” which under Japanese law would allow the deployment of military forces. Ms. Takaichi said that an attempt by China to blockade or seize Taiwan could qualify.

这场争端始于本月早些时候,当时高市早苗在日本国会被问及可能构成“威胁生存的状况”。根据日本法律,这种状况允许日本自卫队进行军事部署。高市表示,中国试图封锁或夺取台湾可能符合这一条件。

Previous Japanese prime ministers had avoided specifying how they would respond if China moved against Taiwan.

此前的日本首相都避免明确说明如果中国对台湾采取行动,他们将如何回应。

Ms. Takaichi later said that her comments did not constitute a change in policy. But her comments provoked a furious response in China, which claims Taiwan, a self-governed democracy, as its territory. China’s Foreign Ministry demanded that Ms. Takaichi retract her remarks and cited Japan’s history of invading China.

高市早苗后来表示,她的话并不意味着日本的政策发生改变。但她的言论在中国引发了强烈反应,中国声称台湾这个自治民主政体是其领土。中国外交部要求高市撤回言论,并援引了日本过去侵略中国的历史。

In recent days, Beijing has also warned Chinese students and tourists against going to Japan, citing unspecified safety risks. On Sunday, China’s Coast Guard said that some of its ships were patrolling the waters of islands that Japan controls but China claims.

近几天,北京还以未阐明的安全风险为由,警告中国学生和游客不要前往日本。周日,中国海警表示其部分船只已在日本实际控制但中国声称拥有主权的岛屿周边海域巡逻

The reprisals continued Monday, as China’s Foreign Ministry announced that China’s premier, Li Qiang, would not meet with Ms. Takaichi at a Group of 20 summit later this week. And the Chinese release dates for two Japanese films have been postponed.

周一,中国的报复行动继续升级。中国外交部宣布,国务院总理李强本周晚些时候不会在二十国集团峰会上会见高市早苗。两部日本电影在中国的上映日期也被推迟

In a torrent of editorials, Chinese state media outlets have said it was crucial for China to adopt a maximalist stance for deterrence purposes. They accused Ms. Takaichi of trying to remilitarize Japanese society, which since the end of World War II has had a pacifist constitution.

中国官方媒体接连发表社论,指出中国采取最大限度的威慑性立场至关重要。他们指责高市试图让日本社会重新军事化,自二战结束以来,日本一直秉承和平宪法。

17INT CHINA JAPAN 02 hzwf master1050周一,北京的一个报摊亭。中国报纸报道了日本首相发表的讲话。

Some hawkish analysts within China were calling for an even stronger response, including halting exports of rare earths to Japan and banning the import of Japanese agricultural and seafood products.

中国国内一些鹰派分析人士呼吁采取更严厉的回应措施,包括停止向日本出口稀土,以及禁止进口日本农产品和海产品。

Public opinion in Japan appears divided. A poll published by Kyodo News on Sunday showed that 49 percent of respondents said they would support Japan intervening militarily over Taiwan, and 42 percent expressed opposition.

日本国内舆论似乎存在分歧。共同社周日发布的一项民调显示,49%的受访者表示支持日本在台湾问题上进行军事干预,42%的人表示反对。

Madoka Fukuda, a professor of China studies at Hosei University in Tokyo, said that China may have seen that division and felt more emboldened to push Japan harder.

东京法政大学研究中国问题的教授福田圆表示,中国可能注意到了这种分裂,并因此更加大胆地向日本施压。

Weaponizing rare earths, in particular, could prompt concerns far beyond Japan. Beijing’s threats to limit such exports, during its trade negotiations with the United States and Europe, have prompted many countries to try and limit their dependence on China.

特别是将稀土武器化,这可能在日本之外引发更广泛担忧。此前中国在与美国和欧洲的贸易谈判中威胁限制稀土出口,促使许多国家试图减少对中国的依赖。

One prominent nationalist voice in China, Victor Gao, the vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, said that a strong response from China was necessary to shock Japanese society into recognizing the danger of its leaders’ moves. And he said China should not worry about how others might perceive the move. “Other countries may decide how to respond, but China needs to stand firm to make sure peace prevails between China and Japan,” he said.

中国知名的民族主义者、北京的全球化智库副主任高志凯表示,中国需要以强硬回应来震撼日本社会,让其认识到日本领导人言行的危险之处。他还说,中国不必担心他国对此举的看法。“其他国家可能会决定如何回应,但中国必须坚定立场,确保中日之间的和平得以维持。”他说。

But there are signs that China’s heavy-handed response is provoking a backlash. In Japan, politicians have denounced China’s retaliation as “excessive.”

但有迹象表明,中国强硬的回应正在引发反弹。在日本,政治人物谴责中国的报复措施“过激”。

17INT CHINA JAPAN lhbg master1050本月在韩国庆州举行的亚太经合组织峰会上,日本首相高市早苗(最右)与韩国总统李在明握手。中国国家主席习近平站在最左侧。

Minoru Kihara, a top Japanese cabinet official, said Monday that the presence of Chinese ships near the disputed islands was a “violation of international law.”

日本内阁官房长官木原稔周一表示,中国船只出现在争议岛屿附近是“违反国际法”的行为。

“This is unacceptable,” Mr. Kihara said.

“这是不可接受的。”木原说。

Siyi Zhao自北京对本文有研究贡献,赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)和Hisako Ueno自东京对本文有报道贡献。

王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者,常驻北京,撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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