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中国将出台财政刺激措施:发行债券、向银行注资

KEITH BRADSHER

2024年10月14日

由于经济信心暴跌,上海和中国其他地区的消费支出明显疲软。房价和奢侈品销售大幅下降。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

China’s powerful Ministry of Finance said on Saturday that it would borrow more to help cash-short localities and put more money in the hands of state-owned banks, an effort to address a severe slowdown in real estate and shore up crumbling consumer confidence.

中国强大的财政部周六表示,将增加借款帮助资金短缺的地方政府,并向国有银行注入更多资金。这是为了应对房地产市场严重下滑、支撑正在崩溃的消费者信心所做的努力。

Lan Fo’an, the finance minister, did not detail how much additional borrowing or spending the government was ready to commit to bolster weak domestic consumption, stabilize the country’s real estate market and strengthen banks. But he hinted that such a plan might still be under development.

财政部部长蓝佛安没有详细说明中央政府打算为提振疲软的国内消费、稳定房地产市场、巩固银行金融承诺增加多少借款或支出。但他暗示,这项计划可能仍在制定中。

“After due procedures, we will release the number to society,” he said.

“经过法定程序后,会及时向社会公开,”他说。

The announcement followed a flurry of other economic stimulus moves last month that pushed stocks in China sharply higher, before they fell in the past week as investors grew concerned the government might not do enough to make a difference.

做出这一宣布之前,中国曾在上个月频繁推出经济刺激措施,引发中国的股市狂飙,但随着投资者越来越担心政府的举措可能不足以改变经济状况,股市已在上周有所回落。

On Saturday, Mr. Lan and Liao Min, a deputy finance minister, said that the ministry planned to inject money into the country’s biggest banks, increasing the lenders’ ability to withstand losses and keep extending the credit that the economy needs for growth. Many investors believe the banks have sustained heavy losses on loans to companies and households throughout China’s housing market crash, although the banks have acknowledged few losses so far.

财政部部长蓝佛安和副部长廖岷周六表示,打算向中国最大的几家银行注资,提高银行承受损失、继续为经济增长提供所需信贷的能力。许多投资者认为,在中国房地产市场整体崩溃的时候,这些银行已在向企业和家庭发放贷款上蒙受了巨额损失,尽管它们迄今尚未承认有大的损失。

Mr. Lan repeatedly said the finance ministry wants local governments to raise money by selling assets. Many municipal governments have built office buildings, hotels and convention centers over the past three decades of often manic investment.

蓝佛安多次表示,财政部希望地方政府通过出售资产来筹集资金。在过去30年的疯狂投资期间,许多市级政府修建了许多办公楼、酒店和会议中心。

But with real estate prices plunging, localities have been reluctant to sell properties for what could be a fraction of what they paid for them. Mr. Lan also promised continued investigations of how local governments had spent their money, addressing a public perception that official misconduct may have contributed to the financial difficulties of many state-owned enterprises and localities.

但随着房地产价格暴跌,地方政府不愿意以可能远低于造价的价格出售房产。蓝佛安还承诺继续监测地方财政运行情况,这是为了解决公众对官员不当行为可能导致了许多国有企业和地方财务陷入困境的看法。

12china econ qkjb master1050中国的财政部部长蓝佛安(中)和副部长廖岷(右二)宣布了向国内几家大银行注资的计划。

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, the chief economist for Asia at Natixis, a French financial institution, said it was disappointing that the finance ministry had not provided numbers for the value of increased fiscal stimulus but noted that the tone of the remarks was favorable to providing support for the economy.

法国投行Natixis亚洲区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚·耶赫雷罗说,财政部没有提供增加财政刺激措施的具体金额令人失望,但她指出,此次宣布的基调有助于为经济提供支持。

“They really want to show they are trying to rebalance the growth model, and that may take longer,” she said.

“他们真的想表明他们正在为重新平衡增长模式做出努力,而这可能需要更长的时间,”她说。

While localities and provinces have run up debts, the finance ministry has long opposed expanding the budget deficit of the national government. So it was a surprise when China’s best-known budget hawk, Jia Kang, a semiretired longtime finance ministry official, suggested in an interview with a state-controlled news outlet on Oct. 1 that the central government should borrow as much as $1.4 trillion through extra bond sales.

虽然地方和省级政府已负债累累,但财政部长期以来一直反对扩大中央政府的预算赤字。因此,当财政部资深的半退休官员、在中国主张紧缩预算的最有名人物贾康于今年10月1日接受一家国有新闻媒体的采访时建议,中央政府应该加大国债规模,再发行10万亿元人民币债券时,让人感到意外。

The money is needed to pay for long-term infrastructure projects, a key source of economic activity, as well as to help localities and provinces pay their bills, he told The Paper in Shanghai.

这些借贷是为支付长期的基础设施项目(这是中国经济活动的主要来源),也是为帮助地方和省级政府支付账单,贾康对上海的澎湃新闻表示。

The country’s central bank and other financial regulators announced a series of measures to encourage bank lending on Sept. 24, including lower interest rates. The ruling Communist Party Politburo ordered further action at a meeting two days later.

中国央行和其他金融监管机构在今年9月24日宣布了一系列鼓励银行贷款的措施,包括降低利率。​​执政的中共中央政治局在两天后开会时下令采取进一步的行动。

China’s Communist Party wields absolute power over the country and the government, but the standing committee of the national legislature must sign off on any overall increase in spending beyond what has already been approved.

虽然中共对国家和政府事务有绝对的控制权,但任何超过已批准支出的预算全面增长必须得到全国人大常委会的批准。

Wei Changhao, a fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School, said the standing committee was expected to gather at the end of this month.

耶鲁大学法学院蔡中曾中国中心研究员魏昌浩说,全国人大常委会预计将在本月底举行会议。

12china econ wqcp master1050上海的一个新建住宅开发项目。

Consumer spending in China has visibly weakened in recent weeks. Many restaurants in big cities are nearly empty or have closed. While domestic rail and expressway traffic was very heavy during a weeklong National Day holiday at the start of October, nightly rates fell at many hotels as frugal travelers stayed with family and friends instead.

中国的消费支出近几周明显减弱。大城市的许多餐馆几乎空无一人或已关门。虽然在十月初为期一周的国庆放假期间,国内的铁路和高速公路交通非常繁忙,但许多酒店房价下降,因为旅行者为省钱住在了亲戚或朋友家。

Apartment prices have fallen by a third or more in many cities. That has wiped out many families’ wealth because real estate has long been the most important investment, representing up to 80 percent of household savings in China. Many have responded to their loss of affluence by curtailing personal spending and stuffing as much cash as possible into bank certificates of deposit. Sales of Porsches and other luxuries have plunged.

许多城市的房价已下跌三分之一或更多。这让许多家庭财产减少,因为房地产长期以来一直是中国家庭最重要的投资,最高占到家庭积蓄的80%。许多人对财产减少的反应是少花钱,将尽可能多的现金存入银行定期存款。保时捷和其他奢侈品的销量已暴跌。

Consumer confidence collapsed during Shanghai’s two-month Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2022 and has never recovered. The latest official measure of confidence, which the government posted online on Sept. 29 without comment, was dismal. It showed that consumers in China were less confident about the economy in August than in any month since 1990 except November 2022.

2022年春,上海曾因新冠疫情采取了两个月的封城措施,导致消费者信心崩溃,至今尚未恢复。政府9月29日在网上公布了令人沮丧的最新信心指数,但没有发表任何评论。官方指数显示,中国消费者今年8月对经济的信心比自1990年以来的每个月都低,除2022年11月外。

That month Covid cases spread out of control despite increasingly extensive municipal lockdowns. Many air and rail services were halted, expressways were dotted with Covid checkpoints and thousands of workers and students joined protests in major cities. Beijing soon undid nearly three years of strict pandemic measures, moving with an abruptness that is now being compared in China to the government’s shift toward economic stimulus.

那个月,中国感染新冠病毒的人数失控,尽管全国各地的城市采取了范围越来越广的封控措施。许多航班和火车停运,高速公路上到处都是核酸检测站,成千上万的工人和学生在各大城市举行了抗议活动。中国政府很快取消了实施已近三年的严格防疫措施,有人将那次180度大转弯与政府这次转向经济刺激的速度做了比较。

But doubts have set in about the government’s response to economic weakness.

但人们对政府应对经济疲软的措施力度仍存怀疑。

The CSI 300, which tracks large companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 27 percent from the start of the government’s push through last Tuesday. But it then receded 8.7 percent from Wednesday through Friday.

沪深300是追踪在上海及深圳上市的规模最大的300家公司表现的指数,该指数自政府推出刺激措施起到上周二止上涨了27%。但之后在上周三到周五的几天里下跌了8.7%。

The procedurally simpler path for the ministry is to authorize the early issuance of debt to raise money that is then spent by local and provincial governments. Mr. Lan said on Saturday that special bonds would be issued to help local governments buy some of the country’s many vacant apartments for conversion into affordable housing.

对财政部来说,程序上更简单的做法是批准提前发行债券,然后将筹集到的资金花在地方和省级政府的支出上。蓝佛安周六表示将发行专项债卷,帮助地方政府购买中国许多空置公寓中的一部分,将其改造为经济适用房。

Extra debt is usually earmarked in China for construction, like building roads and bridges. But many local and provincial governments are in desperate financial condition and need cash instead for expenditures like salaries for teachers and other civil servants, which have already been cut in many places.

中国发行额外债卷通常是为了修建道路、桥梁等建设项目。但许多地方和省级政府的财政状况现在非常糟糕,没有钱支付教师和其他公务员的工资,许多地方的公务员工资已被削减。

Local and provincial governments used to rely heavily on frequent sales of state land to developers, but these have dried up during the housing market crash.

地方和省级政府的财政过去严重依赖频繁地向开发商出售国有土地,但房地产市场的崩溃已导致资金枯竭。

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        中国茉莉花革命网始创于2011年2月20日,受阿拉伯之春的感召,大家共同组织、发起了中国茉莉花革命。后由数名义工无偿坚持至今,并发展成为广受翻墙网民欢迎的新闻聚合网站并提供论坛服务。

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