Ismet Booley, a dentist in Cape Town, had a serious problem a few years ago. Patients showed up for appointments, only to find the power had gone out.

几年前，开普敦牙医伊斯梅特·布利遇到了一个严重问题。预约患者来了，却发现停电了。

No power meant no X-rays, no fillings, no root canals. “I just couldn’t work,” Dr. Booley said.

没有电就意味着无法拍X光片、无法补牙、无法进行根管治疗。“我根本无法工作，”布利医生说。

South Africans like Dr. Booley have found a remedy for power cuts that have plagued people in the developing world for years. Thanks to swiftly falling prices of Chinese made solar panels and batteries, they now draw their power from the sun.

像布利医生这样的南非人找到了解决多年来困扰发展中国家电力短缺问题的办法。由于中国制造的太阳能电池板和电池价格迅速下降，他们现在从太阳中获取电力。

These aren’t the tiny, old-school solar lanterns that once powered a lightbulb or TV in rural communities. Today, solar and battery systems are deployed across a variety of businesses — auto factories and wineries, gold mines and shopping malls. And they are changing everyday life, trade and industry in Africa’s biggest economy.

这些不再是早期那种在农村社区为一个灯泡或电视机供电的老式小型太阳能灯。今天，太阳能和电池系统已广泛应用于各类企业——汽车工厂和酒庄、金矿和购物中心。它们正在改变非洲最大经济体中的日常生活、贸易和工业。

This has happened at startling speed. Solar has risen from almost nothing in 2019 to roughly 10 percent of South Africa’s electricity-generating capacity.

这一变化以惊人的速度发生。太阳能从2019年的几乎为零上升到大约占南非发电容量的10%。

No longer do South Africans depend entirely on giant coal-burning plants that have defined how people worldwide got their electricity for more than a century. That’s forcing the nation’s already beleaguered electric utility to rethink its business as revenues evaporate.

南非人不再完全依赖定义了全世界一个多世纪以来电力获取方式的巨型燃煤电厂。这迫使该国本已陷入困境的电力公用事业公司重新思考其业务，因为收入正在蒸发。

Joel Nana, a project manager with Sustainable Energy Africa, a Cape Town-based organization, called it “a bottom-up movement” to sidestep a generations-old problem. “The broken system is unreliable electricity, expensive electricity or no electricity at all,” he said. “We’ve been living in this situation forever.”

开普敦“可持续能源非洲”组织的项目经理乔尔·纳纳称这是“自下而上的运动”，旨在解决一个困扰数代人的难题。“破败的系统意味着电力不可靠、昂贵，或者根本没有电，”他说。“我们一直生活在这种状况中。”

What’s happening in South Africa is repeating across the continent. Key to this shift: China’s ambition to lead the world in clean energy.

南非的这番景象正在非洲各地出现。这一转变的关键在于：中国在清洁能源领域引领世界的雄心。

Over the past decade, while the United States ramped up fossil fuel exports, China has focused on dominating renewables. Today, Chinese companies make so many of the world’s solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries that they are slashing prices and scrambling to find buyers.

过去十年中，美国加大了化石燃料出口，中国则专注于主导可再生能源。今天，全世界的太阳能电池板、电动汽车和电池大部分都由中国公司生产，以至于它们正在大幅降价，并拼命寻找买家。

Tariffs have thwarted them somewhat in the United States and Europe, but they’re finding enormous new markets in Africa, where around 600 million people lack reliable electricity. Across the continent, solar imports from China rose 50 percent the first 10 months of 2025, continuing a trend, according to a review of Chinese export data by Ember, a British energy tracking group.

关税在一定程度上阻碍了它们在美国和欧洲的发展，但在非洲，它们找到巨大的新市场，那里大约有6亿人缺乏可靠电力供应。根据英国能源追踪组织Ember对2025年前10个月中国出口数据的分析，整个大陆从中国的太阳能进口量上升了50%，延续了这一趋势。

South Africa was the largest destination for Chinese solar, but not the only one. Sierra Leone imported the equivalent of more than half its total current electricity-generating capacity, and Chad, nearly half.

南非是中国太阳能产品的最大出口目的地，但并非唯一。塞拉利昂进口的太阳能发电设备规模已超其现有总发电容量的一半，乍得的进口量也接近半数。

China has much to gain. Not least, new markets and new geopolitical influence. Its companies are doing more than just exporting. State-owned Power China is also building utility-scale solar farms in South Africa, as in other developing economies.

中国将从中获益良多。不仅是新市场，还有新的地缘政治影响力。中国企业不只是出口产品。国有电力企业中国电建还在南非及其他发展中经济体建设公用事业规模的太阳能电站。

开普敦的V&A海滨社区。

And now China is bidding on contracts from the state-owned utility, Eskom, to add 14,000 kilometers (about 8,700 miles) of transmission lines that South Africa desperately needs to move its increasing supply of solar power around the country.

目前，中国还在竞标南非国有电力公司Eskom的合同，计划新建1.4万公里的输电线路，这是南非在全国范围内调配日益增长的太阳能电力所急需的基础设施。

“Obviously we don’t have money for that,” South Africa’s deputy minister for electricity and energy, Samantha Graham-Maré, said in an interview, referring to the hefty upfront costs of expanding the grid.

“我们显然无力承担这笔费用，”南非电力与能源部副部长萨曼莎·格雷厄姆-马雷谈及电网扩建的巨额前期成本时坦言。

Who does? China.

那么谁有能力承担？中国。

Chinese state-owned companies are among several international firms to bid on South Africa’s $25 billion grid expansion, vying to build the lines and then make money, in part, by operating them. Chinese firms hold similar build-operate contracts in countries including Brazil and the Philippines.

中国的国有企业与其他多家国际公司一起竞标南非250亿美元的电网扩建项目，希望建设输电线路并通过运营等方式盈利。中国企业在巴西、菲律宾等国也拥有类似的“建设-运营”合同。

The solar surge does little to address the most pressing social and economic problems of developing countries like South Africa, the need to generate new jobs for millions of young citizens. Installation labor is local, but the panels and batteries are almost all made in China.

太阳能热潮对解决南非等发展中国家最紧迫的社会和经济问题——为数以百万计的年轻公民创造就业岗位——助益有限。虽然安装施工环节雇用了本地劳动力，但太阳能板和电池几乎全部产自中国。

“The economic trade-offs are significant,” said Marvellous Ngundu, a researcher with the Institute of Security Studies, a think tank in Pretoria. “Jobs are created elsewhere. South Africa consumes advanced green technologies without capturing the industrial benefits.”

“这种经济权衡的代价是很大的，”比勒陀利亚智库安全研究所研究员马维勒斯·恩贡杜说。“就业机会流向了其他国家。南非只是在消费先进的绿色技术，却没有获得产业层面的收益。”

Then there are the security implications of a foreign company running the electricity grid. Asked about this, Ms. Graham-Maré said the outside companies could operate the lines for an unspecified period of time and that the grid as a whole would remain owned and controlled by the state. (In other countries, China’s State Grid owns stakes in national grids.)

此外，由外国企业运营电网还涉及国家安全问题。对此格雷厄姆-马雷表示，外部公司可以在一个尚未确定的时期内运营这些线路，而整个电网仍将由国家拥有并控制（在其他国家，中国国家电网持有当地国家电网的股份）。

Asked about security concerns, she said, “Our grid is very, very safe.”

被问及安全担忧时，她强调：“我们的电网非常、非常安全。”

The Race to Adapt

尽快顺应潮流

The rapid shift by so many businesses and people to install their own panels and batteries is causing headaches for Eskom, the already troubled utility.

众多企业与民众迅速转向安装自有太阳能板与电池的浪潮，让本已问题重重的国有电力公司Eskom头疼不已。

Every kilowatt generated by privately owned solar installations is a hit to its bottom line. Eskom’s coal-burning plants, which provide most of South Africa’s power, are old and in poor shape.

每一度来自私人太阳能装置的电力，都是对其盈利的打击。Eskom的燃煤电厂是南非电力的主要来源，它们设备老化严重、状况堪忧。

Power cuts have subsided recently, but it wasn’t long ago that Eskom had to turn off electricity to some areas for hours at a time — a practice called “load shedding” that hurt the economy and fed public anger. During the worst days of load shedding, the latest of which came in early 2024, even Ms. Graham-Maré, the deputy electricity minister, installed a solar system in her home. Her energy bill, she said, fell by two-thirds.

近期停电现象虽有所缓解，但不久之前Eskom还不得不对部分地区实施持续数小时的限电——这种被称为“分区轮流停电”的做法既损害经济又激化民怨。在轮流断电最严重的日子里——最近一次发生在2024年初，就连电力部副部长格雷厄姆-马雷也在自家安装了太阳能系统。她说，家里的电费降了三分之二。

Multiply her hack by the thousands and you have what South Africans call Eskom’s “death spiral.” Well-off customers lower their bills with solar, which causes Eskom to lose money, which in turn forces Eskom to raise prices and encourages more people to install solar.

将这种个体应对方案乘以千万用户，便构成了南非人所说的Eskom“死亡螺旋”：富裕客户通过太阳能降低电费导致Eskom收入减少，Eskom被迫提高电价又促使更多人安装太阳能。

It doesn’t help that some people tap power lines to draw electricity illegally, without paying for it, or that Eskom has suffered years of mismanagement.

雪上加霜的是，窃电现象长期存在，而Eskom多年来也饱受管理不善之苦。

In the past five years alone, South Africans installed solar panels representing more than seven gigawatts, or about a tenth of the total installed capacity of 55 gigawatts. Most is privately owned.

仅过去五年间，南非新增太阳能装机容量超700万千瓦，约占全国总装机容量5500万千瓦的十分之一，其中多数为私人所有。

Now, unable to beat solar, Eskom is joining solar.

如今，无力抗衡太阳能浪潮的Eskom正选择加入其中。

The utility has removed onerous licensing requirements on private installations. It has allowed people to sell power to the grid. And it has tweaked its rates so that customers pay a fixed charge in addition to the cost of any power they consume. Essentially, people pay simply to be connected to the grid, a standard feature in other nations that’s new in South Africa.

该公司取消了私人安装设备的繁琐许可要求。它允许用户向电网售电，同时调整费率结构——用户在用电成本外还需支付固定接入费。这实质上是对接入电网本身付费，虽在其他国家已成常态，在南非却属创新举措。

在兰加镇，尽管价格大幅下降，很多居民仍负担不起太阳能板。

Eskom is now planning to erect large solar arrays on the grounds of shuttered coal plants. And by 2040 it intends to shift its predominantly coal-based system to cleaner sources. “That’s where the world is moving,” said Nontokozo Hadebe, Eskom’s sustainability chief.

Eskom现在计划在已关闭的燃煤电厂用地上建设大型太阳能阵列，并打算到2040年前将煤电主导的能源体系转向清洁能源。“这是全球趋势所在，”Eskom可持续发展负责人农托科佐·哈德贝说。

If the speed of the change is remarkable, it’s still leaving some of South Africa’s most difficult economic problems unresolved, or is making them worse.

尽管转型速度惊人，但南非一些最棘手的经济问题仍然得不到解决，甚至变得更糟。

The problem, experts said, is that South Africa lacks policies to require local manufacturing. But creating them would drive up costs. The prices of made-in-China panels are by far the lowest in the world.

专家指出，问题在于南非缺乏要求本地制造的政策；但如果制定这样的政策，成本就会上升。而中国制造的太阳能板价格远低于世界其他地方。

South Africa’s rapid pivot to Chinese solar gear, as affordable as it is, also doesn’t resolve a basic problem. The country’s poorest citizens still can’t afford to put up their own panels.

南非快速转向中国太阳能设备的做法虽降低了成本，却未能解决根本问题：最贫困民众仍无力安装自有设备。

They lack the money to buy the gear outright and the ability to get loans.

他们既缺购置资金，也难获得贷款。

In Langa township, one of Cape Town’s largest low-income suburbs, one of the rare businesses with solar is Colin Mkosi’s bicycle delivery service, Cloudy Deliveries. His single panel, donated by a charity, powers a few lights and computers. It doesn’t provide nearly enough to charge the electric bikes his business relies on.

在开普敦最大的低收入社区之一兰加镇，科林·姆科西的自行车配送公司“云配送”是极少数装了太阳能的企业之一。他靠慈善机构捐赠的一块太阳能板，给几盏灯和几台电脑供电，却远远不够给企业所需的电动自行车充电。

The e-bikes are, of course, from China. But his power still comes from South Africa’s unreliable grid. “It’s expensive,” he said, and “we can’t operate without electricity.”

这些电动自行车当然来自中国，但他用的电力仍来自南非不稳定的电网。他说，“电费很贵，而且没有电我们根本没法运营。”

Mr. Mkosi’s wants are part of a broader problem. South Africa buys growing volumes of high-value technologies from China, while selling it raw materials of limited value. China overtook the U.S. as its biggest trading partner in 2008. With its trade gap rising to more than $9 billion in 2023, compared with barely $1 billion in 2000, there are increasing calls to make trade relations with China less unequal.

姆科西的困境折射出一个更广泛的问题：南非从中国购入越来越多高附加值技术产品，却仅向中国出口低价值原材料。自2008年中国取代美国成为其最大贸易伙伴以来，两国贸易逆差从2000年的约10亿美元激增至2023年的逾90亿美元，要求改变对华贸易不平等关系的呼声日益高涨。

The difference between South Africa’s trade ties with China and with the U.S. is stark.

南非与中国和美国的贸易关系形成鲜明对比。

President Trump has imposed a 30 percent tariff on South African goods and excluded the government from participating in an international summit of the world’s 20 biggest economies. He has also reversed a Biden administration plan to help the country accelerate its planned closures of its oldest, dirtiest coal plants.

特朗普总统对南非商品加征30%关税，将其排除在二十国集团峰会之外。他还推翻了拜登政府协助南非加速关停老旧高污染煤电厂的计划。

“As relations with the United States have become increasingly strained, Beijing has positioned itself as a reliable and sympathetic partner,” Dr. Ngundu said.

“随着与美国关系日益紧张，北京把自己塑造成一个可靠且富有同理心的合作伙伴，”恩贡杜说。

Sun and Wine

阳光与美酒

安装太阳能后，如今兰泽拉克酒庄每年只在少数几个月需要依赖电网供电。

Far from the hand-wringing over trade and geopolitics, in South Africa’s storied wine region of Stellenbosch the sun is as bright as the chardonnay.

南非历史悠久的斯泰伦博斯葡萄酒产区远离贸易与地缘政治的纷扰，阳光与霞多丽白葡萄酒一样闪耀。

Which explains why, on the Lanzerac Wine Estate in December, workers were finishing installation of rows of solar panels between rows of vines. The panels would soon supply all the electricity to run the 54-room luxury hotel on the estate, and the winery’s operations.

这也解释了为什么在12月的兰泽拉克酒庄，工人们正在一排排的葡萄藤间安装太阳能板。很快，这些面板将为庄园内拥有54间客房的豪华酒店以及酒庄的运营提供全部电力。

Batteries would store power for the night. For only two or three months a year, during winter, would the winery need to buy much electricity from the grid.

蓄电池组负责夜间供电。每年仅有冬季的两三个月，酒庄需要从电网购买较多电力。

Like many businesses, Lanzerac was initially drawn to solar to guard against blackouts. During the worst episodes, the hotel had to close at least three rooms because the growl of diesel generators annoyed guests paying upward of $800 a night.

和许多企业一样，兰泽拉克最初被太阳能吸引，是为了应对停电。最严重的时候，酒店不得不关闭至少三间客房，因为柴油发电机的轰鸣声让每晚花上800多美元的客人十分恼火。

Even after the blackouts subsided, Lanzerac went ahead with solar, ripping out a small patch of vines to make space. In roughly five years, according to Lanzerac’s operations manager, Tiaan Lategan, electricity for the estate will essentially be free. “The pros definitely outweigh the cons,” he said.

即便停电问题后来有所缓解，兰泽拉克仍继续推进太阳能计划，为此还拔除了小片葡萄藤以腾出空间。按照兰泽拉克运营经理蒂安·拉特甘的说法，大约五年后，酒庄用电成本将趋近于零。“利大于弊，这是肯定的，”他说。

Lanzerac is hardly alone.

兰泽拉克绝非个案。

The company that installed its equipment, Aces Africa, has done the same for shopping malls and hospitals. Its next big job is a factory that makes transformers.

为其安装设备的Aces Africa公司已为多家商场和医院完成类似工程。它下一个重大项目是某变压器制造厂。

“China has driven the prices of solar panels so low it’s really rock bottom at the moment,” said Charl Gous, the company president.

“是中国把太阳能板的价格压得如此之低，现在几乎到底了，”公司总裁查尔·高斯说。

Rock-bottom prices have enabled Dr. Booley, the dentist in Cape Town, to expand, too.

超低价格也让开普敦的牙医布利医生得以扩张。

The panel and battery system at his office was paid off in less than four years.

他诊所里的太阳能板与电池系统不到四年就收回了成本。

He installed a bigger system for his home, and his electricity bills dropped to a fifth of what they were. He then raised money to add solar panels to a charitable school he supports nearby.

他在家里装了更大的系统，电费降到了原来的五分之一。随后他又筹钱，在附近一所他资助的慈善学校加装了太阳能板。

One recent evening, as dusk drew in, the lights in his house came on, powered by batteries, and his swimming pool was warm, heated by electricity from his panels. The family sat around a kitchen table, cooing over a grandchild. By next June, he expects his home system will be paid off.

近日某个傍晚，暮色渐浓时，他家中的灯光依靠蓄电池点亮，泳池由太阳能电力加热保持温暖。全家人围坐餐桌旁逗弄孙辈。他预计住宅系统将在明年6月前完全回本。

This gives Dr. Booley solace. He’s planning for retirement, and solar has eliminated one of his worries, he said — “that I’ll not be able to afford electricity when I’m a pensioner.”

这让布利备感安心。他说，自己正在规划退休生活，而太阳能消除了他的一个担忧——“不必担心领养老金时负担不起电费”。