2024年12月13日
China’s top leaders on Thursday pledged more stimulus measures to shore up the country’s economy, building on steps they have taken in recent months to bolster growth.
中国最高领导层周四承诺,将在近几个月来已经采取的促增长措施的基础上,推出更多提振经济的措施。
At an annual gathering of the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet, led by the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, officials agreed that the government should allow a bigger budget deficit, borrow more and cut interest rates, the state television broadcaster said on Thursday.
据中央电视台周四的报道,国家最高领导人习近平主持召开了中央经济工作年度会议,与会者为中共和国务院官员,他们一致同意提高财政赤字率,允许政府借更多的钱,同时降低利率。
The statements suggest a willingness by Beijing to take more aggressive steps to increase spending, part of a shift that began in September to turn around years of weak consumer demand, lackluster growth and declining prices.
这次会议的纪要表明,中国政府在增加支出上愿意采取更积极的措施,政府态度的转变是今年9月开始的,以扭转多年来消费需求疲软、增长乏力的局面,解决价格下跌的问题。
China “will need to maintain economic growth and maintain overall stability of employment and prices next year,” the state broadcaster said at the conclusion of the two-day Central Economic Work Conference, which sets the economic agenda for the upcoming year.
中国“明年要保持经济稳定增长,保持就业、物价总体稳定”,中央电视台在中央经济工作会议结束后发的报道中称,这个为来年制定经济议程的会议为期两天。
The Chinese government typically uses the conference to signal priorities that could translate into policy action in the next year, and to agree on budget details that will be announced at the spring legislative session.
中国政府通常在中央经济工作会议上对可能成为来年政策行动的优先事项发出信号,并就将在春季人大会议上公布的预算细节达成一致。
Earlier this week, the ruling Politburo gave a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to take a stronger approach on the economy, when it indicated it would be more willing to lower interest rates. It was the first time that China’s leaders had eased their stance on monetary policy since the aftermath of the global financial crisis 14 years ago.
本周早些时候,中国最高权力机构中共中央政治局罕见地公开承认,政府需要在提振经济上拿出更有力的措施,并对降低利率表示了更大意愿。这是14年前全球爆发金融危机以来,中国领导人首次将他们的货币政策立场转为“适度宽松”。
Beijing has struggled this year to jump-start growth and reverse a broad decline in prices. The collapse of the real estate market, where most Chinese households build their wealth, has left consumers reluctant to spend. Many local governments have run out of money to pay workers’ salaries, and millions of young people are unemployed.
中国政府今年一直在努力提振经济,扭转价格的普遍下跌。房地产市场崩溃已导致消费者不愿意花钱,因为大多数中国家庭的财富来自房产。许多地方政府已没钱支付工人工资,数百万年轻人面临就业困难。
“People do not have confidence in the economic trajectory, so they’re holding back, and the government could do more to support them,” said Andrew Polk, a co-founder of Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.
“人们对经济走向没有信心,所以他们不想花钱,政府还可以在支持消费者上做更多的事情,”研究和咨询公司策纬的联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克说。
Since September, the Chinese government has rolled out a series of measures to address stagnant spending, including a $1.4 trillion plan to bail out local governments. But Beijing has typically favored state-led growth rather than direct consumer stimulus, and many doubt that officials will substantially shift spending away from priorities like manufacturing.
自今年9月以来,中国政府为解决支出停滞问题推出了一系列措施,其中包括一项救助地方政府的10万亿元计划。但中国政府通常更喜欢国家主导的增长,而不是直接刺激消费,许多人对官员会把支出大幅转向其他方面,而不是继续支持制造业等优先事项持怀疑态度。
China’s faltering economy faces an additional headwind in the coming year: an escalating contest with the United States over trade and control over advanced technology under Donald J. Trump’s second presidential term.
中国一蹶不振的经济明年还会面临另一个阻力:中国与美国在贸易和控制先进技术方面的竞争将在特朗普第二次执政期间进一步升级。
Mr. Trump has promised to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on goods imported from China. That could significantly dent China’s economic output next year, said Zhu Tian, a professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.
特朗普承诺对从中国进口的商品加征10%的额外关税。上海中欧国际工商学院经济学教授朱天表示,这可能会严重挫伤中国明年的经济产出。
Economists thought that the looming tariff threat would prompt Chinese businesses to rush to send shipments before Mr. Trump takes office. But China’s exports to the United States grew more slowly than expected in November, according to Chinese government data released this week. And some economists have warned that next year they could stop growing altogether.
经济学家们认为,关税威胁的逼近会促使中国企业赶在特朗普上任前匆忙发货。但据中国政府本周公布的数据,11月份中国对美出口增长低于预期。一些经济学家警告,中国对美国的出口明年可能会完全停止增长。
“The only bright spot has been exports, which could be hit by the tariff hike,” Mr. Zhu said. “So they have to do something to stimulate domestic demand and consumption.”
“经济的唯一亮点一直是出口,但加征关税可能会对出口造成冲击,”朱天说。“所以他们不得不采取措施刺激国内需求和消费。”
A persistent decline in prices for consumer goods from food to electronics has made these challenges even more complicated, as profits have shrunk and people have grown less willing to spend. This phenomenon, known as deflation, indicates that China’s economy may not be growing quite as fast as the official growth figures suggest.
从食品到电子产品等消费品价格持续下降使这些挑战变得更加复杂,随着商家的利润减少,人们的消费意愿越来越低。这个被称为通货紧缩的现象意味着,中国经济增长率也许没有官方数据显示的那么高。
Beijing could attempt to blunt the effect of tariffs by devaluing China’s currency, the renminbi, which would give exports a boost. But that risks further eroding public confidence at home, which could push people to save more and undermine spending. Mr. Xi has previously said that a strong currency was necessary for China to be a financial power.
中国政府可能会试图通过让人民币贬值来减轻关税的影响。虽然这会促进出口,但也可能进一步削弱国内公众信心,从而促使大家多存钱,少花钱。习近平已经发话,强大的货币是中国成为金融强国的必要条件。
Futures for Chinese stock markets, which were closed when the conference statements were reported, fell about one percent late Thursday.
中央经济工作会议纪要发布时,中国的股市已经收盘。股指在周四收盘时下跌了约1%。
Despite falling prices and weak spending, Beijing has set a growth target of around 5 percent for 2024. It could be harder to reach a comparable level next year.
尽管物价下跌、消费疲软,但中国政府仍把2024年的经济增长目标设定在5%左右。明年实现同等水平的增长可能会更难。
If the government sets the same target at the spring meeting, “real growth will be deviating even more from official growth,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region at the investment bank Natixis.
如果政府在明年春天召开全国人大时设定同样目标的话,“实际的增长率将会与官方的增长数字相差更大”,投资银行法国外贸银行亚太地区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗说。
Beijing has been using more proactive language this year compared with last, but the steps taken so far do not add up to the change the economy needs in the long run, Ms. Garcia-Herrero said.
她表示,与去年相比,中国政府今年宣布措施时一直在使用更积极主动的语言,但到目前为止,政府采取的措施并未带来经济长期发展所需的变化。