In recent weeks, China has been practicing unusual maneuvers off its southern coast involving three special barges. The vessels have linked up one behind another, forming a long bridge that extends from deeper waters onto the beach.

最近几周，中国在其南部海岸进行了一场不同寻常的演习，涉及三艘特殊驳船。这些船只一艘接一艘连接起来，形成了一座从更深的水域延伸到海滩上的长桥。

That feat has been a warning to Taiwan.

这种惊人的展示是对台湾的一个警告。

The vessels’ debut suggests that China’s People’s Liberation Army may be a step closer to being able to land tens of thousands of troops and their weapons and vehicles on Taiwan’s shores, experts say. Developing that capability has been a priority of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his quest to absorb Taiwan — either by negotiations or by war.

专家说，这些船只的首次亮相表明，中国人民解放军距离将数以万计的士兵和他们的武器车辆登上台湾海岸可能又近了一步。在中国领导人习近平寻求通过谈判或战争吞并台湾的过程中，发展这种能力一直是他的首要任务。

China has been conducting military exercises around Taiwan for years, including a new surge this week. But even as China’s drills have intensified, and its missiles, warships and fighter jets have advanced, many experts have doubted that the Chinese military could cross the Taiwan Strait with the speed and numbers needed for a successful invasion. Strong winds and currents for much of the year add to the dangers of trying to land on Taiwan.

中国多年来一直在台湾附近进行军事演习，包括本周的新一轮演习。但尽管加强了军演，导弹、军舰和战斗机也取得了进步，许多专家还是怀疑，中国军队能否以成功入侵所需的速度和规模穿越台湾海峡。一年中大部分时间的强风和海流增加了登陆的危险。

If the new barges go into service, they could expand China’s options for where and when to land on Taiwan, making Mr. Xi’s threat of a possible invasion more plausible.

如果新的驳船投入使用，将使中国在登陆的时间和地点上有更多选择的余地，从而使习近平入侵台湾的威胁更加可信。

The vessels have been practicing in waters about 220 miles southwest of Guangzhou, the city where they were built. The barges have retractable, heavy-duty legs that work like giant stilts. The legs protrude from the deck when in transit and are lowered, when the vessels are in position, onto the seabed to steady the vessels against the waves. The barges then thrust out long extendable bridges, forming a 2,700-foot causeway that links the vessels together and connects to the shore.

这些在广州建造的船只一直在该市西南约350公里的海域训练。驳船有可伸缩的重型支腿，其作用就像一种巨大的高跷。支腿在转场过程中会从甲板上伸出来，当船只就位时，支腿就会下放到海床上，以稳定船只，抵御海浪。然后，驳船推出长长的可伸缩长桥，形成一条约800米长的堤道，将船只连接在一起，并与海岸相连。

Pictures from foreign satellites have shown the barges practicing with civilian Chinese cargo ships and ferries that could carry vehicles and people to be offloaded onto the causeway. China featured the barges on a recent program about military rivalry with Taiwan, warning that they could play a potential role in an attack.

来自外国卫星的图片显示，这些驳船正在与中国的民用货船和渡轮一起进行演练，这些货船和渡船可以将其运载的车辆和人员卸载到堤道上。中国最近在一个有关两岸军事对抗的节目中提到了这些驳船，并警告说它们可能在攻击中发挥作用。

“This equipment is a bridge and a port combined into one,” Wei Dongxu, a CCTV commentator on the show, said of the barges. Once China gains dominance in the skies and seas, he said, ships loaded with military vehicles could dock with the barges and unload the vehicles, enabling heavy combat equipment to land without touching the water. He said of the barges: “Once they appear, that means that the landing has scored a major victory.”

“它是一个把桥梁和港口设施进行结合的一个装备，”央视节目评论员魏东旭在谈到驳船时说。他说，一旦中国获得制空和制海权，装载军用车辆的船只就可以和驳船接驳，卸下这些车辆，使重型作战装备可以在不接触水面的情况下登上陆地。他对这些驳船的评价是：“一旦它出现，就意味着登陆取得了重大的胜利。”

Some American commanders and officials have said that Mr. Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be able to take Taiwan by 2027. Mr. Xi has not said that China would definitely invade Taiwan, and there is debate about Beijing’s intentions, urgency and capabilities.

一些美国军事指挥官和官员说，习近平已经做出指示，要求中国人民解放军在2027年之前具备攻占台湾的能力。习近平并没有说中国一定会入侵台湾，关于中国政府的意图、紧迫性和能力也存在争议。

Crossing the Taiwan Strait could be perilous for China’s forces, even with more options for getting ashore. The United States could send forces to help Taiwan against China, raising the risk of war between two nuclear powers. Before any attempt by China to land in large numbers — possibly with the barges — the first wave of invading troops could face fierce fighting in the strait and on Taiwan.

即使有更多的登陆选择，穿越台湾海峡对中国军队来说仍然可能是危险的。美国可以派遣军队帮助台湾对抗中国，增加两个核大国之间爆发战争的风险。在中国试图大规模登陆——包括使用驳船——之前，第一波入侵部队可能会在海峡和台湾面临激烈的战斗。

But the three landing barges showed that China’s armed forces were rapidly developing ways to get over logistical hurdles of a possible invasion, said J. Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer and co-author of a study of the new barges.

但美国海军退役情报官员、一项关于新型驳船的研究的共同作者迈克尔·达姆说，这三艘登陆驳船表明，中国武装部队正在迅速克服可能的入侵行动会遇到的后勤障碍。

The barges work in sets of three — the longest barge, at 607 feet long, the shortest, 361 feet. The vessels’ legs, when lowered, pin the barges in place and can push the hulls up and above the water, for stability. Each barge also has a tower at the front, which can telescope out a bridge, connecting it to the next barge or to the shore.

这些驳船三艘一组，最长的驳船约185米长，最短的约110米长。放下支腿时，驳船可以固定在适当的位置，并将船体抬到水面以上，以保持稳定。每艘驳船前面都有一座塔，可以伸出一座桥，将它与下一艘驳船或海岸连接起来。

The barges form a pier onto which ships that line up alongside the barges could disgorge vehicles. The vehicles could then drive directly along the pier to the shore.

驳船形成一个码头，沿着驳船排列的船只可以在码头上卸下车辆。然后这些车辆可以直接沿着码头开到岸边。

Sources: U.S. Naval War College; satellite image by Airbus DS

Mr. Dahm said that he used to doubt that the Chinese military would meet Mr. Xi’s goal of readiness by 2027.

这些驳船首次引起公众的注意是在今年早些时候，国防分析师H·I·萨顿报道称，它们正在广州的一家造船厂建造。3月，位于同一船厂的同一艘驳船，此时已经离开干坞，此外还有一艘较小的驳船。The Times analyzed satellite imagery and marine traffic data that showed that several commercial ferries and cargo ships took part in the exercises. The commercial ships sidled up to the two larger barges farthest from shore, apparently practicing how to get in place to offload vehicles.

《纽约时报》分析了卫星图像和海上交通数据，显示有几艘商业渡轮和货船参加了演习。商船慢慢靠近离海岸最远的两艘较大的驳船，显然是在练习如何就位，卸载车辆。

The satellite images did not show any vehicles actually being unloaded. But ferries and cargo ships that took part were of a kind built or modified to handle heavy armed vehicles, like armored personnel vehicles or even tanks, said Jason Wang, the chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a company that analyzes satellite images and other data, including about the Chinese military.

卫星图像并没有显示任何车辆被卸下。不过，ingeniSPACE的首席运营官杰森·王（音）说，参与其中的渡轮和货船都是为运载重型武装车辆而建造或改装的，比如装甲运兵车，甚至坦克。ingeniSPACE是一家分析卫星图像和其他数据（包括有关中国军队的数据）的公司。

Taiwan’s western coastline, facing the Chinese mainland, has relatively few beaches or ports where landing is easy, and those areas are relatively well guarded. The barges would theoretically enable China to pick other areas on Taiwan’s coast that might be more difficult to land on but are less defended, from which to come ashore, several experts said.

在面向中国大陆的台湾西部海岸线，容易登陆的海滩或港口相对较少，且戒备森严。几位专家表示，理论上，这些驳船将使中国大陆能够在台湾沿海选择其他可能更难登陆但防御较弱的地区，从那里上岸。

“These barges will open up new locations to deliver troops and material for Xi Jinping to choose from” along Taiwan’s coast, Mr. Wang said. He estimated that in one day the barges could offload hundreds of armored vehicles.

“这些驳船将为习近平在台湾沿海地区运送部队和物资开辟新的可供选择的地点，”杰森·王说。他估计，驳船一天之内可以卸下数百辆装甲车。

“China still doesn’t have enough gray hull naval ships to assault Taiwan’s main island on their own,” Mr. Wang said, referring to the typical color of warships. But when you add specialized dual-use ferries and cargo ships, “then that becomes a different story,” he said.

“中国仍然无法仅凭灰色军舰攻击台湾主岛，他们没有足够的船，”杰森·王说，灰色是军舰的典型颜色。但如果再加上特殊的军民两用渡轮和货船，“情况就不一样了，”他说。

“You’re then starting to have enough vessels to be able to deliver a battalion on shore quickly,” he said.

“这样一来，你就可以有足够的船只，能够迅速将一个营的物资运送到岸上，”他说。

Chinese military planners have closely studied previous wars involving amphibious landings, including Britain’s war to retake the Falkland Islands in 1982, and the D-Day landings at Normandy in 1944.

中国的军事规划者仔细研究了以往涉及两栖登陆的战争，包括1982年英国夺回福克兰群岛的战争，以及1944年的诺曼底登陆。

China may be some way from having a surefire solution to landing on Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army seems likely to further test the new barges in larger military drills, possibly later this year, said Chieh Chung, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded group in Taipei.

中国可能还没有找到登陆台湾的万全之策。中国人民解放军似乎有可能在更大规模的军事演习中进一步测试新型驳船，时间可能在今年晚些时候，位于台北的政府资助机构国防安全研究院研究员揭仲说。

“They usually carry out testing through exercises before officially entering into mass production,” he said of China’s military. “Their direction is set — how to overcome all the difficulties that could trouble a joint landing operation.”

“通常是在正式进入量产前，就会透过演习进行测试，”他谈到中国军队时说。“他们的方向是确定的，就是如何去解决在联合登陆作战过程当中所会遭遇到的困难。”

During the recent practice runs, it took several hours for the transport ships to dock at the mobile pier, even with help from tugboats. On March 25, one ship appeared to abandon its effort to dock at the pier where two other ships were already berthed. It succeeded the next day and was joined by a small tanker used to refuel the self-propelled barges, making for a total of four ships moored at the same time — a first for the formation.

在最近的演习中，即使有拖船的帮助，运输船也要花几个小时才能停靠在移动码头。3月25日，一艘船似乎放弃了停靠码头的努力，另有两艘船已经停泊在那里。第二天，它成功了，另外还有一艘为自行驳船加油的小型油轮，总共有四艘船同时系泊，是这种编队首次做到这一点。

Mr. Wang, the expert on satellite image analysis, said that at the shipyard in Guangzhou that built the new barges, another set of three was nearly finished and had entered the water for initial tests.

卫星图像分析专家杰森·王说，在建造新驳船的广州造船厂，另一组三艘驳船已接近完工，并已下水进行初步测试。