In 2013, construction began on the first two U.S. nuclear reactors in a generation. Atomic energy was back. Or was it?

2013年，美国开始建设一代人以来的首批两座核反应堆。原子能时代回来了。果真如此吗？

Plagued by delays, these reactors became two of the costliest ever built. Nuclear power seemed hopeless, at least in the U.S.

受工期延误的困扰，它们已成为史上建造成本最昂贵的两座反应堆。核能似乎前途渺茫，至少在美国是这样。

Yet in the same period, China built 13 similar reactors, with 33 more underway. And Beijing’s nuclear ambitions are global.

但在同一时期，中国建设了13座类似的反应堆，另外还有33座正在建设中。而且，中国政府的核能雄心是全球性的。

China is swiftly becoming the world leader in nuclear power, with nearly as many reactors under construction as every other country combined. By 2030, China’s nuclear capacity is set to surpass that of the United States, which was the first country to split atoms to make electricity but then stopped building plants for decades.

中国正迅速成为世界核能行业的领军者，在建的反应堆数量与其他国家的总数几乎相当。到2030年，中国的核电装机容量预计将超过美国。美国是第一个利用原子裂变发电的国家，但核电站建设已经停滞了数十年。

Many of China’s reactors are essentially copies of U.S. and French designs, yet China has managed to overcome the construction delays and cost overruns that have repeatedly derailed Western attempts to expand nuclear energy.

中国的许多反应堆本质上是仿照美国和法国的设计，但中国成功地克服了工期延误、成本超支等问题，这些问题已经多次阻断了西方国家扩大核能的尝试。

At the same time, China is making breakthroughs in next-generation nuclear technologies that have eluded the West. The country is also investing heavily in fusion, a potentially limitless source of clean power if anyone can figure out how to tame it.

与此同时，中国正在西方迟迟未能取得进展的下一代核技术方面实现了突破。中国也在大力投资核聚变——若能攻克可控难题，这将成为潜力无限的清洁能源。

Beijing’s ultimate objective is to become a supplier of nuclear power to the world, joining the rare few — including the United States, Russia, France and South Korea — that can design and export some of the most sophisticated machines ever invented.

中国政府的最终目标是成为世界上的核能供应国，跻身美、俄、法、韩等极少数能设计并出口顶级核能技术的国家之列。

浙江三澳核电站1号机组反应堆厂房正在安装穹顶，摄于2022年。

“The Chinese are moving very, very fast,” said Mark Hibbs, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace who has written a book on China’s nuclear program. “They are very keen to show the world that their program is unstoppable.”

“中国人正在非常、非常迅速地行动，”卡内基和平基金会高级研究员马克·希布斯说，他著有关于中国核能项目的专著。“他们非常热衷于向世界展示其核能发展势不可当。”

As the United States and China compete for global supremacy, energy has become a geopolitical battleground. The United States, particularly under President Trump, has positioned itself as the foremost supplier of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. China, by contrast, dominates the manufacturing of solar panels, batteries and electric cars, seeing clean energy as the multi-trillion-dollar market of the future. But the race to lead on atomic energy has yet to be settled.

随着美中在全球争夺主导地位，能源已成为地缘政治的一个战场。尤其是在特朗普总统的领导下，美国已准备让自己成为石油、天然气和煤炭等化石燃料的首要供应国。相比之下，中国则在光伏板、电池以及新能源车制造领域占据主导地位，将清洁能源视为一个数万亿美元的未来市场。但原子能领域的领导权竞争尚未见分晓。

Nuclear power is enjoying a resurgence of global interest, especially as concerns about climate change mount. That’s because nuclear reactors don’t spew planet-warming emissions, unlike coal and gas plants, and can produce electricity around the clock, unlike wind and solar power.

全球对核能的兴趣正在复苏，尤其是有关气候变化的担忧日益加剧的背景下。这是因为核反应堆不像燃煤和天然气发电厂那样，排放导致全球变暖的温室气体，而且能全天候发电，这与风能和太阳能截然不同。

The Trump administration wants to quadruple U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2050 and develop a new generation of reactor technology to power data centers at home and sell to energy-hungry countries overseas. Officials fear that if China dominates the nuclear export market, it could expand its global influence, since building nuclear plants abroad creates deep, decades-long relationships between countries.

特朗普政府想在2050年之前将美国的核电装机容量翻两番，并开发新一代的反应堆技术，旨在满足国内数据中心电力需求的同时，向海外能源紧缺国家出口技术。美国官员担心，如果中国主导核能出口市场的话，其全球影响力将随之扩张——因为核电站的海外建设将在国家间缔造持续数十年的深度合作关系。

Yet in the race for atomic energy, China has one clear advantage: It has figured out how to build reactors quickly and cheaply. The country now assembles reactors in just five to six years, twice as fast as Western nations do.

中国已在原子能竞赛中拥有一个明显的优势：它已经掌握了如何快速、低廉建设反应堆的技术。中国现在建设一个反应堆只需五到六年时间，这个速度是西方国家的两倍。

While U.S. nuclear costs skyrocketed after the 1960s, they fell by half in China during the 2000s and have stabilized, according to data published recently in Nature. (The only two U.S. reactors built this century, at the Vogtle nuclear plant in Waynesboro, Ga., took 11 years and cost $35 billion.)

据《自然》杂志最近发表的数据，美国的核电成本在20世纪60年代后飙升，而中国的核电成本已在21世纪的头十年下降了一半，并已稳定下来。（美国本世纪只在佐治亚州韦恩斯伯勒的沃格特尔核电站建设了两座反应堆，总共耗时11年，耗资350亿美元。）

核反应堆建设成本随时间的变化图。注：各反应堆按其投入（或预计投入）商业运营的年份排列。图表显示基础成本，不包括利息支出。趋势线显示的是线性回归斜率。资料来源：刘尚炜等人2025发表的文章。

“When I first got this data and saw that declining trend in China, it surprised me,” said Shangwei Liu, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School who led the paper.

“我第一次得到这些数据时，看到中国的核电成本呈下降趋势，感到十分惊讶，”该论文的第一作者、哈佛大学肯尼迪学院研究员刘尚炜说。

The big question, Mr. Liu said, is how China got so good at nuclear power — and whether the United States can catch up.

刘尚炜指出，中国如何能在核能领域做得这么好，美国是否能迎头赶上，这是关键的问题。

How China mastered nuclear power

中国是怎样掌握核电技术的

A modern nuclear power plant is one of the most complex construction projects on Earth.

现代核电站堪称地球上最复杂的建造工程之一。

The reactor vessel, where atoms are split, is made of specialized six-inch-thick steel that must withstand bombardment by radiation for decades. That vessel, in turn, is housed in a massive containment dome, often three stories high and wider than the U.S. Capitol dome, made of steel-reinforced concrete to prevent dangerous leaks. Thousands of miles of piping and wiring must meet exacting safety standards.

反应堆压力容器（原子裂变在其中发生）的制造需要15厘米厚的特种钢材，需要在几十年里经受住连续不断的辐射轰击。然后，反应堆容器被安放在一个巨大的安全壳厂房里，厂房穹顶通常高达三层楼，直径超过美国国会大厦的穹顶，厂房穹顶采用钢筋混凝土结构，以防止发生泄漏事故。核电站使用的总长几千公里的管道和布线必须达到严格的安全标准。

Financing these multibillion-dollar projects is staggeringly difficult. Even small delays, like needing to modify a component midway through construction, can cause borrowing costs to skyrocket.

为这些耗资数十亿美元的项目融资异常困难。即使是微小的项目延误，例如需要在施工期间修改某个组成部分，也能导致借贷成本飙升。

Over time, China has conquered this process.

经过长期发展，中国已攻克了这一复杂流程。

江苏田湾核电站输电塔正在建设中，摄于2023年。

It starts with heavy government support. Three state-owned nuclear developers receive cheap government-backed loans to build new reactors, which is invaluable since financing can be one-third of costs. The Chinese government also requires electric grid operators to buy power from nuclear plants at favorable rates. (It is unclear how profitable China’s nuclear plants are, though policymakers have started paring back subsidies and pushing reactors to be economically competitive.)

首先是有政府的大力支持。三个国有的核电集团用政府支持的低息贷款建设新反应堆，这一点至关重要，因为融资成本能占到造价的三分之一。中国政府还要求电网运营商以优惠价格收购核电。（目前尚不清楚中国核电站的盈利状况，但政策制定者们已开始减少补贴，推动核电站实现经济竞争力。）

Just as importantly, China’s nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types, modeled after American and French designs, and they do it over and over again.

同样重要的是，中国的核电公司仅建造少数几种基于美国和法国设计的反应堆型号，并进行重复建设。

That allows developers to perfect the construction process and is “essential for scaling efficiently,” said Joy Jiang, an energy innovation analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, a pronuclear research organization. “It means you can streamline licensing and simplify your supply chain.”

这使得建设商能完善施工流程，这“对实现高效规模化至关重要”，支持核能的研究机构——突破研究所的能源创新分析师江悦（音）说。“这意味着可以简化审批程序并优化供应链。”

The fact that the Chinese government has a firm national goal of expanding nuclear power means that companies can confidently invest in domestic factories and a dedicated engineering work force. In a sprawling complex near Shanghai, giant reactor pressure vessels are being continuously forged, ready to be shipped to new projects without delay. Teams of specialized welders move seamlessly from one construction site to the next.

中国政府制定了明确的核电扩张国家目标，这使得企业能放心地投资国内工厂建设和专业化工程技术团队。在上海附近一个庞大的综合体里，巨大的反应堆压力容器正被持续锻造出来，一旦新的项目建设需要，就能马上运到那里。专业的焊接团队不间断地从一个施工现场移动到另一个施工现场。

It’s been different in the West.

西方的情况一直有所不同。

In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. nuclear construction slowed to a trickle as interest rates rose and regulators frequently tightened safety rules, causing delays. Growing fear of catastrophic accidents after the 1979 partial meltdown of a reactor at Three Mile Island didn’t help. At the same time, private developers kept experimenting with new reactor designs that required different components and introduced fresh complications. U.S. nuclear power died from a lack of predictability.

在20世纪70年代和80年代，随着利率上升，且监管机构频繁地收紧安全规定，导致工期延误，美国的核电建设逐渐陷入了近乎停滞的状态。1979年，三哩岛核电站反应堆部分熔毁后，公众对灾难性事故的担忧日益加剧，使情况雪上加霜。与此同时，私人开发商不断进行新反应堆设计试验，新设计需要不同的部件，且会带来新的复杂问题。美国的核电因缺少可预测性而走向衰落。

宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡附近三哩岛核电站的示威者，摄于1979年。

The contrast became glaring in the mid-2000s, when U.S. utilities tried to revive nuclear power with a new reactor model called the AP1000, with improved safety features. Developers struggled with the novel technology, leading to repeated delays and soaring costs. By the time the two reactors in Georgia were finished last year, most utilities were hesitant to try again.

这种对比在21世纪头十年的中期变得尤为明显，当时美国公用事业公司试图采用具有增强安全特性的AP1000新型反应堆来重振核电。建设商在这个全新技术上遇到重重困难，导致项目一再拖延，造价飙升。等到佐治亚州的这两座反应堆去年竣工时，大多数公用事业公司都不​​愿意再尝试建设新项目。

As it happened, China built AP1000s at the same time. It, too, faced challenges, such as difficulties in obtaining coolant pumps and unpredictable cost spikes. But instead of giving up, Chinese officials studied what went wrong and concluded they needed to tweak the design and develop domestic supply chains.

中国恰好在同一个时候开始建造AP1000反应堆。中国也面临了挑战，例如获得冷却剂泵的困难，以及难以预料的造价飙升问题。中国官员们不但没有放弃，而是深入研究问题症结，最终得出结论：必须调整设计，发展国内的供应链。

“What the Chinese did was really smart,” said James Krellenstein, the chief executive of Alva Energy, a nuclear consultancy. “They said, we’re going to pause for a few years and incorporate every lesson learned.”

“中国人做得非常聪明，”核咨询公司Alva Energy的首席执行官詹姆斯·克雷伦斯坦说。“他们说，‘我们要暂停几年，吸取所有的经验教训’。”

China is now building nine more copies of that reactor, known as the CAP1000, all on pace to be completed within five years at a drastically lower cost, an Energy Department report found. Some experts say the U.S. could have done something similar if it hadn’t stopped.

美国能源部的一份报告发现，中国现在正在建设九座该反应堆的改进型号CAP1000，所有这些项目都有望在五年内完工，而且造价大幅降低，。一些专家说，如果美国没有停止建设反应堆的话，可能也会取得类似的成就。

中国在海阳核电站不断建设

Nuclear proponents in the United States sometimes blame overly strict safety regulations for the high cost of nuclear power.

美国支持发展核能的人有时把核电成本高昂归咎于过于严格的安全法规。

China’s requirements are similar. Yet one difference, experts said, is that the permitting process is centralized and more predictable and there are fewer opportunities for challenges from opponents. In China, 63 percent of reactors under construction today broke ground within weeks of receiving approval from the safety regulator, according to research by Ms. Jiang. In the United States, projects often need additional permissions from state and local governments, which can take months or years.

中国有类似的安全要求。但专家指出，一个区别在于中国的审批流程是集中统一的，更具可预测性，而且来自反对者的挑战机会更少。据江女士的研究，中国目前在建的反应堆中，有63%在获得了安全监管机构批准后数周内破土动工。而在美国，核电项目通常需要获得州政府和地方政府的额外许可，这可能耗时数月甚至数年时间。

“China is practiced at building really big things, everything from dams to highways to high speed rail, and those project management skills are transferable,” said David Fishman, a power sector consultant at Lantau Group, a consulting firm.

“中国在建设从大坝到高速公路再到高铁的大型工程方面是内行，而且管理这些项目的技能可用到别处，”咨询公司 Lantau Group的电力行业顾问余德伟(David Fishman)说。

As China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, seeks to curb pollution, it is counting on nuclear power to play an important role.

作为全球最大的温室气体排放国，中国在寻求遏制污染的过程中，寄望于核能发挥重要作用。

Solar and wind power are China’s two fastest-growing sources and account for most of its emissions-free electricity. But because solar panels and wind turbines can’t operate at all hours, they have to be supplemented by plants that can run on demand. Right now, China mainly uses coal to do so. More nuclear power could help displace coal and balance renewables.

太阳能和风能是中国增长最快的两种能源，占其零排放电力的大部分。但由于太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机不能全天候运行，它们需要有能按需运行的电厂作为辅助。目前，中国主要用煤炭发电来完成这个任务。增加核电能力能帮助取代煤炭，平衡可再生能源发电。

China’s nuclear expansion still faces hurdles. While the government tends to be secretive about problems at nuclear plants, a serious accident could turn public opinion against the technology. In 2011, Beijing blocked new reactors in much of China’s interior over concerns about their water use. If that moratorium persists, it could limit the industry’s growth.

中国的核电扩张仍面临障碍。尽管政府往往对核电站的问题讳莫如深，但重大事故可能引发公众对该技术的抵触情绪。中国政府曾在2011年叫停了内陆大部分地区的新反应堆建设，因为担心反应堆的用水问题。如果这项禁令持续存在，可能会制约核电行业的发展。

For now, though, the country is barreling ahead, with plans to build hundreds of reactors by midcentury.

但就目前而言，中国正在加速推进核能建设，计划在本世纪中叶建成数百座反应堆。

Can the U.S. catch up?

美国能迎头赶上吗？

In the United States, nuclear power is one of the rare types of energy that has support from Republican and Democratic politicians alike, especially as demand for electricity rises. Even environmentalists like Al Gore who once fretted about catastrophic accidents and radioactive waste are warming to the technology.

在美国，核能是少数获得两党政客支持的能源类型之一，尤其是在电力需求不断增长的背景下。就连像阿尔·戈尔这样曾经担心灾难性事故和放射性废物的环保主义者，也开始对这项技术产生兴趣。

Yet the U.S. is pursuing a starkly different path to nuclear expansion — one that leans more heavily on private innovation than government backing.

但美国正在走一条截然不同的核能发展道路——更多地依赖私营部门创新，而不是政府支持。

Dozens of start-ups are working on a new generation of smaller reactors meant to be cheaper than the hulking plants of old. Tech companies like Google, Amazon and OpenAI are pouring billions into nuclear start-ups like Kairos, X-Energy and Oklo to help power their data centers for artificial intelligence. Early projects are underway in Wyoming, Texas and Tennessee, though few, if any, new reactors are expected before the 2030s.

数十家初创企业正在研发新一代的小型反应堆，它们比庞大的老式反应堆造价更低。谷歌、亚马逊以及OpenAI等科技公司正为Kairos、X-Energy、Oklo等核能初创企业投入数十亿美元的资金，以帮助为这些大公司的人工智能数据中心提供电力。初创企业的早期项目正在怀俄明州、得克萨斯州和田纳西州进行，但预计在2030年代之前鲜有（如果有的话）反应堆建成。

The Trump administration is looking to accelerate this work by scaling back regulations at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which certifies the safety of reactors before they are built. The agency’s critics say it has become too hidebound to handle a new generation of reactors that are less prone to meltdowns.

特朗普政府正寻求通过缩小国家核管理委员会（简称NRC，负责反应堆建造前安全认证的机构）的监管范围来加快反应堆的建设。批评该机构的人士称，NRC过于守旧，对本就不容易发生熔毁的新一代反应堆的认证工作处理不力。

美国能源部长克里斯·赖特上个月在维也纳举行的第69届国际原子能机构年会上发言。

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the administration is betting that the private capital flowing into nuclear projects will spark American ingenuity and catapult the U.S. ahead of China. “Entrepreneurial capitalist competition is where the U.S. thrives, and I think it’s an advantage over China,” he said in an interview.

能源部长克里斯·赖特表示，政府正押注涌入核能项目的民间资本能激发美国创造力，推动美国反超中国。“创业型资本竞争是美国优势所在，我认为这是相对于中国的优势，”他在接受采访时说。

Yet some nuclear proponents worry that the United States is betting too heavily on technological breakthroughs instead of focusing on the steady policy support and basic infrastructure needed to build plants, as China has. The U.S., for instance, no longer has any heavy forging facilities that make reactor vessels; China has three. A new generation of advanced reactors could take years to perfect — leaving America behind.

但一些支持发展核能的人担心，美国过多地寄希望于技术突破，而不是像中国那样专注于建设核电站所需的稳定政策支持和基础设施建设。例如，美国已没有制造反应堆压力容器的重型锻造企业，而中国有三家。新一代的先进反应堆可能需要数年时间才能完善，这将让美国远远落在后面。

“You look at the number of designs, particularly in the U.S., you think, Oh, God, help us,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “I would think narrowing down is the sensible thing to do.”

“看看有这么多的设计方案，尤其是在美国，你心里会想，‘啊，上帝帮帮我们吧’，”牛津能源研究所高级研究员菲利普·安德鲁斯-斯皮德说。“我认为，缩小可能的选择范围是明智之举。”

It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration can deliver. While it has moved to speed up nuclear approvals and increase domestic supplies of nuclear fuel, some key government tools for advancing new reactors — such as the Energy Department’s loan office — have been ravaged by staffing cuts. Efforts to slash safety regulations could be contentious. There is also a risk that interest by tech giants could fizzle if the A.I. boom slows.

特朗普政府能否兑现承诺还有待观察。尽管美国政府已采取措施加快了核能项目的审批速度，增加了国内的核燃料供应，但一些推动新反应堆建设的关键政府工具——例如能源部的贷款办公室——因人员裁减已受到重创。简化安全监管的努力也可能引发争议。如果人工智能热潮降温的话，科技巨头对核能的兴趣也可能会消退。

“There’s no reason the United States couldn’t expand nuclear power,” said Stephen Ezell, vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. “But are we just going to see a few small reactors power a few data centers, or are we going to see a serious whole government approach to bring back nuclear power as an essential source of electricity?” China, he added, is doing the latter.

“美国完全有能力发展核能，”信息技术与创新基金会负责全球创新政策的副总裁斯蒂芬·埃泽尔说。“但问题在于：我们是要仅仅建造几座为数据中心供电的小型反应堆，还是会看到整个政府采取严肃认真的行动，将核电重新作为一个极其重要的电力来源？”中国正在采取第二种做法，他补充道。

多功能模块化小型压水堆ACP100（又称“玲珑一号”）的一个核心模块。这种新的核电原型机已于2023年在辽宁投入使用。

A race to power the world

为世界供能的竞赛

For now, China has mainly focused on growing its domestic nuclear power fleet. But the country has built three reactors in Pakistan, and Beijing eventually plans to export its technology around the world.

就目前而言，中国的注意力主要集中在发展本国的核电站上。但中国已在巴基斯坦建设了三座反应堆，而且中国政府的最终计划是向全球出口核能技术。

Nuclear power is widely viewed as a strategic asset. Selling reactors to another country creates a deep web of relationships around construction, security and fuel management. Russia dominates that market today, but China’s growing proficiency could position it to close the gap.

核能被广泛视为一个战略资产。向其他国家出口反应堆将围绕电站建设、核安全以及燃料管理等建立深厚的合作关系网。虽然俄罗斯目前在该市场占据主导地位，但中国日益提升的技术实力将缩小其与俄罗斯的差距。

The competition is intensifying. In 2015, British officials initiated plans for a Chinese-designed reactor near Essex, attracted by the promise of lower costs. But the project faced political blowback, and this year, British companies turned to the United States, signing joint agreements to pour billions into small reactors.

竞争正在加剧。受更低成本许诺的吸引，英国官员曾在2015年开始计划在埃塞克斯附近建造一座由中国设计的反应堆。但该项目遇到了政治阻力，今年，英国公司已转向美国，签署了为小型反应堆建设投入数十亿美元的联合协议。

Yet China is working to blunt America’s technological edge. China has built what it calls the world’s first “fourth generation” reactor, a gas-cooled model that can provide heat and steam for heavy industry in addition to electricity. The Chinese are also pursuing technologies that either use less uranium, such as thorium reactors, or recycle spent nuclear fuel. It’s a recognition that China doesn’t have enough domestic uranium to fuel a major build-out of traditional reactors.

但中国正在努力削弱美国的技术优势。中国已经建造了其所谓世界上的第一座“第四代”反应堆，即一种气冷反应堆，除发电外，还能为重工业供热、提供蒸汽。中国也在进行技术研发，或让反应堆用更少的铀，例如钍反应堆，或者对乏核燃料进行再循环利用。这表明中国认识到国内没有足够的铀资源来支撑传统反应堆的大规模扩建。

Even if U.S. companies and labs remain at the forefront of innovation, one recent report warned that China was 10 to 15 years ahead of the U.S. in its ability to deploy next-generation reactors widely.

即使美国公司和实验室仍处于创新前沿，最近已有报告警告称，中国在广泛部署下一代反应堆的能力上已领先美国10到15年。

It’s a familiar story: The United States invented solar panels and batteries but China was first to scale them up and dominate global markets.

这幕场景似曾相识：美国发明了太阳能电池板和电池，但中国是第一个实现规模化生产并主导全球市场的国家。

“When the day comes and China decides it wants to start exporting, they’re going to be a fierce competitor,” said Paul Saunders, president of the Center for National Interest, a conservative think tank. “Maybe we can convince some of our allies not to buy Chinese reactors, but there are going to be plenty of other countries out there with growing energy demands,” he said. “And if America isn’t ready, we won’t be able to compete.”

“当中国决定开始出口核反应堆时，他们将成为我们的强劲对手，”保守派智库国家利益中心主席保罗·桑德斯说。“也许我们能说服一些盟友不要购买中国的反应堆，但还有很多能源需求正在增长的国家，”他说。“如果美国不做好准备的话，我们将无法参与竞争。”