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中国暂停部分稀土出口限制,为何西方仍然感到担忧?

KEITH BRADSHER

2025年10月31日

中国中南部龙南郊外一座重稀土金属矿,摄于4月。 Keith Bradsher/The New York Times

China has agreed to stand down on enforcing some of its recent limits on exports of critical minerals, but apparently not all of them.

中国已同意暂缓执行近期出台的部分关键矿产出口限制措施,但显然并非全部。

Following a meeting on Thursday between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, the Ministry of Commerce in China said it would suspend for a year the export controls it issued on Oct. 9.

周四,特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平会晤后,中国商务部宣布将暂停执行10月9日颁布的出口管制措施,为期一年。

However, China made no public commitment to retreat from earlier limits, which it imposed in the spring and last winter, and which continue to snarl global supply chains.

然而,中国并未公开承诺取消今年春季及去年冬季出台的早期限制措施。这些措施目前仍在持续扰乱全球供应链。

The October orders were, in the words of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, “a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world.” They included a halt to any further export of technology or equipment that might help other countries develop their own rare earth mines, refineries and magnet factories, except with permission from China’s commerce ministry.

用美国财政部长贝森特的话来说,10月的出口管制令是“对准整个自由世界供应链与产业基础的火箭筒”。该管制令要求,除经中国商务部批准外,全面禁止出口可能帮助其他国家发展稀土矿、精炼厂及磁体工厂的技术或设备。

30Biz China RareEarths 02 gbvz master1050特朗普总统与习近平主席周四在韩国釜山会晤之后。

Mr. Trump said Thursday after his meeting with Mr. Xi, held in Busan, South Korea, that he expected the yearlong suspension would be extended before it expired.

特朗普周四在韩国釜山与习近平会晤后表示,他预计这一年期的暂缓措施在到期前将获得延长。

But China’s commerce ministry said it planned to “study and refine” its Oct. 9 regulations, which have drawn considerable criticism from Europe as well as the United States for being very broad and also ambiguous.

但中国商务部称,计划对10月9日的管制条例进行“研究细化”。该条例因覆盖范围过广且表述模糊,已遭到欧美广泛批评。

Perhaps even more important, the ministry did not offer public assurance that it would back away from the stringent export control rules that it imposed on critical minerals in April and last December.

或许更重要的是,中国商务部并未公开承诺取消今年4月及去年12月对关键矿产实施的严格出口管制。

The April rules halted exports from China of seven kinds of rare earth metals and rare earth magnets made from them, except with licenses issued by the ministry. The December rules imposed similar requirements on two metallic elements vital for making certain semiconductors and two other elements needed for military ammunition.

4月的规则要求,除经商务部核发许可证外,禁止出口七种稀土金属及由其制成的稀土磁体。12月的规则则对两种制造特定半导体所需的金属元素,以及两种军用弹药所需的元素,施加了类似的许可管制要求。

European and American business leaders and officials say that only half their requests for export licenses for rare earth magnets are being approved by the ministry. Many factories are barely receiving enough shipments from China to stay open, and some have had brief closures.

欧美商界领袖及官员表示,目前稀土磁体的出口许可申请仅约半数获得批准。许多工厂从中国收到的货量仅够勉强维持运转,部分工厂甚至出现短暂停产。

The export controls are “putting the stability of global supply chains at stake,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said last month.

中国欧盟商会上月表示,这些出口管制措施正在“危及全球供应链的稳定”。

Factories that need the magnets to make products like brakes and car seats have been unable to replace their usual inventories. Companies had to run down their stocks when the ministry approved very few licenses for the first two months after issuing the April regulations, while the ministry was setting up licensing procedures.

需要稀土磁体生产刹车系统、汽车座椅等产品的工厂已无法补充常规库存。在4月管制规则出台后的前两个月,商务部尚在建立许可审批流程,期间仅批准了极少数许可证申请,企业被迫持续消耗库存维持生产。

Shortages have sent the cost of rare earths skyward. The price of dysprosium, used to make heat-resistant magnets for brake motors, steering motors and other automotive systems, has risen outside China at least sixfold, to $1,200 per kilogram, said Thomas Kruemmer, a rare earths consultant in Singapore.

短缺问题已导致稀土价格飙升。新加坡稀土顾问托马斯·克鲁默表示,用于制造刹车电机、转向电机及其他汽车系统耐热磁体的镝,在中国境外的价格已至少上涨六倍,达到每公斤1200美元。

In deciding to back off its October rules, China may have realized that it had earlier underestimated how much damage it would do to the industrial base in the West — and how that would hurt its reputation as a reliable suppler.

中国决定暂缓10月的管制措施,或许是意识到此前低估了该措施对西方产业基础的冲击力度,以及这对中国“可靠供应方”声誉的损害。

“My impression is that they had no idea just how many products would be affected by this licensing system,” Mr. Kruemmer said.

“我的印象是,他们当时完全没意识到这个许可制度会影响到这么多产品。”克鲁默表示。

It was not immediately clear what China’s agreement with the United States on Thursday would mean for Europe. European Union trade officials were scheduled to hold talks with a Chinese delegation in Brussels on Friday.

目前尚不清楚周四中美达成的协议对欧洲意味着什么。欧盟贸易官员定于周五在布鲁塞尔与中国代表团举行会谈。

China has been withholding rare earth magnets from Europe while demanding that Europe reduce its tariffs on Chinese electric cars.

中国在限制对欧出口稀土磁体的同时,同时要求欧洲降低对中国电动汽车的关税。

The West is beginning to invest heavily to limit its rare earths dependence on China. The United States has little or no capacity to quickly increase production of rare earth magnets.

西方正开始大举投资,以降低对中国稀土的依赖。但美国目前几乎没有能力快速提升稀土磁体的产能。

It could take a decade for the United States to develop a completely independent supply chain of rare earth magnets and other rare earth materials, said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI, a country risk and industry analysis company that is part of the Fitch Group.

惠誉集团旗下国家风险与产业分析公司BMI的大宗商品部门负责人萨布林·乔杜里表示,美国要建立完全独立的稀土磁体及其他稀土材料供应链,可能需要10年时间。

A further worry is whether China will actually allow exports of rare earth processing equipment to help the West set up its own supply chains. Many Chinese manufacturers of the equipment stopped exports early this year after receiving administrative guidance from Beijing, even in the absence of new regulations at the time, rare earth industry executives said.

另一个担忧是,中国是否真的会允许出口稀土加工设备,以帮助西方建立自己的供应链。稀土行业高管表示,今年早些时候,即便当时尚未出台新法规,许多中国稀土加工设备制造商在收到北京的行政指导后,就已停止出口。

Whether these shipments will resume following the suspension of the October rules “remains to be seen,” Ms. Chowdhury said.

乔杜里表示,在10月管制措施暂缓后,这些设备出口能否恢复,“仍有待观察”。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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