中国温室气体排放量飙升颠覆全球气候政治
2024年11月20日
For many years, wealthy places like the United States and Europe have had the biggest historical responsibility for global warming and have been tasked with taking the lead in stopping it.
多年来，美国和欧洲等富裕国家对全球变暖负有最大的历史责任，并肩负着带头阻止全球变暖的重任。
China’s astonishing rise is upending that dynamic.
中国的惊人崛起正在颠覆这种局面。
Over the past three decades, China has built more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants as its economy has grown more than 40-fold. The country has become by far the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.
中国经济在过去三十年里增长了40多倍，与此同时，中国建造了1000多座燃煤发电厂。它已成世界上最大的年度温室气体排放国。
Source: Jones et al. (2024), Carbon Brief.
The United States has still pumped more total planet-warming pollution into the atmosphere since the 19th century, in part because the country has been burning coal, oil and natural gas for longer. But China is quickly catching up.
美国仍是全球自19世纪以来向大气层排放温室气体总量最多的国家，部分原因是美国燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气的时间更长。但中国正在迅速赶上。
Last year, China for the first time passed Europe as the second-largest historical emitter, according to an analysis published on Tuesday by Carbon Brief, a climate research site.
据气候研究网站Ca bnhgrbon Brief周二发布一份分析，中国已在去年首次超过欧洲，成为历史上第二大温室气体排放国。
When humans burn fossil fuels or cut down forests, the resulting carbon dioxide typically lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, heating the planet all the while. That’s why historical emissions are often used as a gauge of responsibility for global warming.
人类燃烧化石燃料或砍伐森林产生的二氧化碳通常会继续存留在大气层中数百年，导致地球变暖。这是为什么历史上的排放量通常被作为判断全球变暖责任的原因。
China, for its part, has promised that its emissions will peak this decade and then start falling. The country is installing more wind turbines and solar panels than all other nations combined and leads the world in electric vehicle sales. But even with China’s shift to low-carbon energy, the Carbon Brief analysis found, the nation’s historical emissions are projected to approach those of the United States in the coming years.
就中国而言，它已承诺让碳排放量在本十年内达峰，然后逐渐下降。中国正在安装比所有其他国家加起来还要多的风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板，中国电动汽车的销量也位居世界首位。但Carbon Brief的分析发现，尽管中国已在转向低碳能源，但中国的历史排放量预计将在未来几年接近美国。
A question of money
资金问题
China’s historical responsibility for climate change has become a major point of contention in global climate politics.
中国对气候变化的历史责任已成为全球气候政治争论的一个主要焦点。
This week, diplomats and leaders from nearly 200 countries have gathered at the United Nations climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss how to raise the trillions of dollars that vulnerable nations will need to shift to clean energy and to cope with droughts, heat waves, floods and other hazards of a warming planet. One big question is where that money should come from.
本周，来自近200个国家的外交官和领导人将出席在阿塞拜疆巴库举行的联合国气候峰会，讨论如何筹集所需的数万亿美元资金，帮助易受危害的国家转向清洁能源，应对干旱、热浪、洪水和全球变暖带来的其他危害等问题。这些钱应该从哪里来是一个大问题。
Traditionally, the answer has been that wealthy, industrialized countries — like the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia and most of western Europe — should pay up.
传统的答案是，富裕的工业化国家——如美国、日本、加拿大、澳大利亚，以及大多数西欧国家——应该出钱。
Under a United Nations framework originally written in 1992, these developed countries have been called upon to provide financial aid. Countries like China, India and Saudi Arabia, as well as every nation in Africa, are classified as developing by that framework, and have not been required to chip in.
联合国1992年制定的最初框架要求这些发达国家提供财务援助。根据该框架，中国、印度和沙特阿拉伯以及非洲所有的国家都被归类为发展中国家，不需要出钱。
Today, however, many wealthy nations say this distinction no longer makes sense. Leaders from both the United States and European Union have called on China to contribute more climate finance to poorer countries as part of a final deal at Baku.
但如今，许多富裕国家已表示，这种划分不再合理。美国和欧盟国家的领导人都呼吁中国出更多的钱帮助更贫穷的国家应对气候变化，以此作为巴库最终协议的一部分。
“An expanded donor base has been long warranted,” John Podesta, President Biden’s international climate adviser, said last week. “This is not 1992 in terms of the economic structure of the world.”
“早已有必要扩大捐赠基础，”拜登总统的国际气候顾问约翰·波德斯塔上周说。“现在的世界经济结构已与1992年的不同。”
China, for its part, has argued that it has already provided roughly $24.5 billion in climate finance to other developing countries since 2016. But European officials have said that China is not subject to the same transparency requirements and have urged the country to formalize the aid they provide under U.N. agreements. So far, China has been reluctant to do that.
就中国而言，它指出，自2016年以来，中国为解决气候问题已向其他发展中国家提供了约245亿美元的资金。但欧洲的官员已表示，中国不受与欧洲一样的透明度要求的约束，他们敦促中国按照联合国协议的正式方式提供援助。中国到目前为止一直不愿意这样做。
In a speech last week, Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, said that wealthy countries taking the lead on providing financial aid was a “cornerstone” of global climate agreements.
中国副总理丁薛祥在上周的一次讲话中表示，富裕国家带头提供财政援助是全球气候协议的“基石”。
At the same time, other world leaders have criticized wealthy emitters like the United States and Europe for falling behind on earlier promises for climate aid and have urged them not to point to China as an excuse for inaction.
与此同时，世界其他国家的领导人也批评美国和欧洲等富裕的温室气体排放国未能兑现以前的气候援助承诺，并敦促他们不要将中国作为不采取行动的借口。
“We cannot continue to hear the same promises as small islands suffer in the absence of real action from those most responsible for climate change,” said Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda.
“我们不能再继续听这些同样的承诺，那些对气候变化负有主要责任的国家不真正采取行动的话，小的岛国将遭受灾难，”安提瓜和巴布达的总理加斯通·布朗说。
A different way to look at emissions
对碳排放的不同看法
Total emissions aren’t the only metric to consider in issues of fairness. Another is emissions per person.
一个国家的总排放量并不是考虑公平时用的唯一指标。另一个指标是人均排放量。
Because China has 1.4 billion people, its historical emissions per capita are still lower than those of the United States, European Union, Japan and Canada.
因为中国有14亿人口，中国历史上的人均排放量仍低于美国、欧盟国家、日本和加拿大。
And while India is today one of the world’s largest consumers of fossil fuels, its historical emissions per person are relatively small. India is the most populous country in the world but still relatively poor, with tens of millions of people still lacking reliable access to electricity. India says it should be granted time to burn more fossil fuels as it develops.
同时，虽然印度现在是世界上最大的化石燃料消费国之一，但其历史上的人均排放量相对更小。印度是世界上人口最多的国家，且仍相对贫穷，数千万人仍缺乏可靠的电力供应。印度称，在该国发展经济的同时，它应该被赋予燃烧更多化石燃料的时间。
At the same time, some affluent oil- and gas-producing nations, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have disproportionately large emissions per capita. American and European leaders have suggested that these countries, too, should be called on to contribute more climate finance.
与此同时，一些富裕的石油和天然气生产国的人均排放量过高，如沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔。美国和欧洲国家领导人已建议，也应该要求这些国家为气候资金出更多的钱。
How these disputes get resolved will go a long way toward determining whether negotiators from nearly 200 countries in Baku can agree to a new goal for delivering as much as $1.3 trillion per year in climate aid. Experts say it won’t be easy to strike a deal at the summit, which is scheduled to end on Friday.
这些争端如何解决将在很大程度上决定来自近200个国家的谈判代表能否在巴库就兑现每年提供最高1.3万亿美元的气候援助的新目标达成一致。专家们表示，在定于本周五结束的峰会上达成一致并非易事。
Methodology
方法
Data for carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from 1850 to 2023 is from Jones et al (2024); data for 2024 from Carbon Brief; projected data for 2025 to 2100 is based on the International Energy Agency’s “stated policies scenario” tracking nations’ climate actions.
1850年至2023年的二氧化碳当量排放量数据来自琼斯等人(2024)；2024年的数据来自Carbon Brief；2025年至2100年的预测数据是基于国际能源署跟踪各国气候行动的“已公布政策预测”。
European Union totals were calculated for the current 27 member countries. Lines show cumulative territorial CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, cement, land use, land use change and forestry.
欧盟国家总排放量是对现有27个成员国的统计。线条显示的是各国的化石燃料、水泥、土地利用、土地利用变化，以及森林的累积二氧化碳排放量。