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中国社保新规惹争议,强制缴纳引发广泛焦虑

王月眉

2025年8月29日

北京一家妇产医院门外,摄于去年。自9月1日起,中国所有雇主都必须为员工缴纳社保。 Andrea Verdelli for The New York Times

As of Sept. 1, all employers in China must contribute to benefits for their employees, to support their pensions, medical care, maternity leave and more.

从9月1日起,中国所有用人单位都必须为员工缴纳社会保险,用于保障养老金、医疗保险、带薪产假及其他福利。

That should come as good news to many ordinary Chinese, given how threadbare China’s social safety net has been. But rather than celebrating, many in China have reacted with worry and frustration.

考虑到中国的社会保障体系如此薄弱,这对许多普通中国人来说本应该是好消息。但许多中国人对这个消息的反应不是庆祝,而是担心和不满。

Small business owners have said that their labor costs will skyrocket. Workers have speculated that their bosses will lay them off or lower their salaries. Economists have warned that the policy could push more people into the gig economy, possibly lowering the formal employment rate and stripping workers of protections.

小企业主表示,他们的劳动力成本将大幅上涨。员工则推测,老板会解雇他们或降低他们的工资。经济学家警告,这项政策可能会迫使更多人进入零工经济,有可能导致正式就业率降低,使劳动者失去保障。

“If they force us to pay, we’ll have to close up shop and go home,” said Yan Xuejiao, whose family runs a rice noodle shop in Beijing.

“他要是强制交出去,我们得关门回家了真的,”闫雪娇(音)说,她和家人在北京经营一家米粉店。

“Especially the way business is going this year, ask around — which business owner is able?” she continued, gesturing at the empty restaurants, hers included, on the downtown street. “We’re all about to give up our leases and quit.”

“特别是今年的行情,你看一下问一下这家哪个老板能干的,”她继续说道,并指着位于市中心这条街上空无一人的餐馆,包括她自己的餐馆。“现在都准备找房东退房还是不干了。”

That the requirement has been met with such anxiety shows the challenges the Chinese government faces in bolstering its weak social safety net. On the one hand, experts agree that China urgently needs to replenish its state pension fund, which experts have said may run out by 2035, and to ease the costs of housing, education and health care. That would help Chinese families feel less pressure to save for a rainy day and spend more, a key goal for the government in boosting a slowing economy.

新规引发的广泛焦虑凸显出中国政府在加强薄弱的社会保障体系时面临的多重挑战。一方面,专家普遍认为,中国迫切需要充实国家养老基金(有专家预测,国家养老基金可能在2035年耗尽),同时设法缓解民众在住房、教育和医疗方面的负担。这将有助于减少中国家庭的预防性储蓄压力,并刺激消费,这是政府提振经济增速放缓的一个主要目标。

But the economic downturn also means that many small and medium-sized businesses are already struggling to stay afloat — even before paying for social insurance, which under Chinese law is funded by contributions from employers and employees. Some young people have also opted out of paying for the benefits, preferring to pocket more money for their daily needs.

但经济萧条也意味着,即使在不强迫缴纳社保费之前,许多中小企业已经举步维艰。中国法律规定社保费由雇主和雇员共同承担。一些年轻人也已选择不缴纳社保,而是把更多的钱留给自己,以满足日常需求。

If Beijing follows through, the price tag could be steep. Analysts at Société Générale estimated that the rule could increase costs to employers and workers by about 1 percent of China’s gross domestic product. Like many of their American counterparts, many younger Chinese are also skeptical that they will ever get to see the promised welfare anyway. With fewer babies being born and a shrinking pool of future workers to pay into the pension system, they worry that the funds will run out before they retire.

如果中国政府全面推行该政策,代价可能十分高昂。据法国兴业银行的分析师估算,新规可能使雇主和雇员的综合成本增加约相当于中国GDP的1%。与许多美国同龄人一样,中国的许多年轻人也对自己能否享受到政府承诺的福利持怀疑态度。由于出生人口减少,缴纳养老金的未来劳动力后备在缩小,年轻人担心养老金将在他们退休前枯竭。

“If people like us have to keep paying for another 20 years — will I even live 20 more years?” said Ms. Yan, who is in her 40s. “Even if I live to see that point, can I be sure I’ll get this money?”

“如果像我们这样的人还要继续缴20年——我还能再活20年吗?”40多岁的闫女士问道。“即使我能活到那个时候,我能肯定自己会拿到这些钱吗?”

28int china pensions 03 mtql master1050在北京一个公园里玩扑克牌,摄于去年。

Chinese law has long required that employers and employees each pay into a social security fund. The exact share differs by region, but generally amounts to about 10 percent of the paycheck from the worker, and about 25 percent from the employer. (Part-time or gig workers without formal labor contracts are exempt.)

中国法律长期以来一直要求雇主和雇员分担社保费的缴纳。虽然具体比例因地区而异,但通常雇员需缴纳工资的约10%,雇主承担约25%。(没有正式劳动合同的兼职或零工人员除外。)

But the law was loosely enforced, and many employers either underpaid, skipped the payments altogether or signed informal agreements with their employees to give them cash instead. A survey last year of more than 6,000 Chinese companies found that less than 30 percent fully complied with social insurance requirements.

但法律没有得到严格执行,许多雇主要么少缴,要么干脆不缴,还有雇主与员工签订“不缴社保”的约定,把更多的钱发给员工。去年对6000多家中国企业的调查发现,只有不到30%的企业完全遵守了缴纳社保的规定。

Last month, the Supreme People’s Court declared those informal agreements void, and said it would uphold claims by workers who sued for unpaid contributions.

最高人民法院上个月宣布,任何无需缴纳社保的约定都是无效的,并称法院将支持劳动者诉讼不缴纳社保的雇主。

The goal was to protect workers from being pressured into unfair labor contracts, officials said at a news briefing. The move would also “actively respond to the problem of population aging,” said Chen Yifang, a judge.

官员们在新闻发布会上表示,新规目的是保护劳动者免于被迫签订不公平的劳动合同。法官陈宜芳表示,新规也将“积极应对人口老龄化问题”。

But among workers, the reaction was mixed.

但劳动者群体的反应不一。

While some applauded the decision, saying they wanted guarantees for their future, others said it was more urgent to have more money in their own hands now.

一些人表示赞赏,称他们想让自己的未来有保障,但也有人说,更迫切的是现在把更多的钱掌握在自己手中。

ZZ Zeng, a 35-year-old employee at a Korean restaurant near Ms. Yan’s noodle shop, said he expected his take-home salary of 6,000 renminbi, or about $840, a month to drop by at least $140 once both he and his boss started paying into the fund. He might have to dip into his savings to pay for his $700-a-month mortgage, he said.

35岁的曾先生在闫女士米粉店附近的一家韩国餐馆工作。他说自己现在每月挣6000元,若他和老板都开始缴纳社保基金的话,他预计自己的税后工资将减少至少1000元。他说,他可能不得不动用积蓄,以支付每月5000元的房贷。

He would prefer to remain uninsured, he said: “Money in hand is so much more satisfying.” The promise of future benefits was unappealing, he added. “That’s too far in the future. Better to focus on the present.”

他更倾向于不参保,“钱到手里多得劲啊,”他说。他还说,未来福利的承诺没有吸引力。“想得那么老远,你先过好当下。”

Other workers said they expected their bosses to hire more day laborers, or cut their salaries in order to cope. That’s exactly what Hu Yang, a hair salon owner in Beijing, plans to do.

还有劳动者表示,他们预计老板的应对措施是雇佣更多的临时工,或者降低工资。北京一家发廊老板胡阳(音)正是这么打算。

Mr. Hu said that he would count the employer’s required contribution as part of his employees’ total benefits, and take it out of their paychecks.

胡阳说,他将把雇主的规定缴款计入员工总福利,并从员工的工资中扣除。

Otherwise, he said, he would have to shoulder thousands of dollars more in costs each month, which he could not afford. “How much can you earn running a salon?” he said. “It’s not just our industry. Restaurants, anywhere that hires ordinary workers — it’s all the same.”

否则,他说,他每个月将不得不多承担成千上万元费用,这是他无法承担的。“你开发廊能挣多少钱?”他说。“不光是我们行业,包括中间那些饭店,只要是涉及到打工的这些面临的情况都一样,对吧?”

28int china pensions 04 mtql master1050北京,工人寻找日结工作,摄于上月。

China’s social security is funded almost exclusively by contributions from employers and employees, unlike in other countries, where general tax revenue also contributes. That means that the required contribution rates from employers and employees are much higher than in many other countries. In the United States, for example, the combined tax for Social Security and Medicare is less than 8 percent each for employers and employees; in Japan, employers and employees contribute around 14 percent each to pensions and medical insurance.

中国的社会保障资金几乎完全来自雇主和雇员的缴费,不像其他国家也会依靠一般税收收入。这意味着雇主和雇员所需缴纳的费率远高于许多其他国家。例如,在美国,雇主和雇员各自缴纳的社会保障税和医疗保险税合计不到8%;在日本,雇主和雇员各自为养老金和医疗保险缴纳约14%的费用。

The heavy dependence on employers is a legacy of China’s planned economy days, when state-owned enterprises were responsible for most workers’ welfare.

对雇主的严重依赖源于中国计划经济时期的历史遗留,当时国有企业承担着绝大多数劳动者的福利保障。

The government should gradually reduce those rates, said Lu Quan, a professor of social security at Renmin University in Beijing. That, combined with more strictly ensuring that employers actually paid into the funds, would allow the government to increase pensions without overly burdening business owners.

中国人民大学社会保障学教授鲁全表示,政府应该逐步降低这些比率。配合严格监督雇主实际缴费情况,将使政府能够在不给企业主带来过度负担的情况下增加养老金。

“The prerequisite for mandatory participation in a system is that it be a good system,” he said. “So we still need to lower the payment rates. These are two sides of the same coin.”

“大家都要强制参加一个制度的前提是这个制度是个好的制度,”他说。“(所以我们)仍然是要下调费率。所以这也是一个问题的两个方面。”

But the authorities also need to address young people’s mistrust in the system, and reassure them that they really will reap the benefits, said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. That mistrust has been compounded by a history of misappropriation of pension funds by local governments, as well as earnings that have not risen much.

但纽约外交关系委员会中国问题研究员刘宗媛称,当局还需要解决年轻人对体制的不信任,并让他们相信,他们真的会从中受益。地方政府挪用养老基金的历史,以及收入增长缓慢加剧了这种不信任。

“I think it’s just pure math. If people realize that their wages are not going to grow, how can they count on that their pension contribution paid in today is going to be distributed decades later?” Ms. Liu said.

“我认为这纯粹是一个数学问题。如果人们意识到他们的工资不会增长,他们怎么能指望今天缴纳的养老金会在几十年后返还呢?”刘宗媛说。

There are also more deep-rooted issues. Many young Chinese are wary of government overreach after the strict controls the authorities imposed during the pandemic. They see the pension system, which gives more benefits to urban, public sector retirees than to those who worked in private companies or in rural areas, as deeply unfair, Ms. Liu said.

还有一些深层次的问题。在经历了疫情期间的严格管控之后,许多年轻人对政府的越权行为持谨慎态度。他们认为养老金制度非常不公平,因为城市和公共部门的退休人员比那些在民营企业或农村地区工作的人享有更多的福利。

“There is no easy solution,” she said. “It’s not that the government can grow the economy, and this problem can be solved.”

“没有简单的解决办法,”她说。“并不是说政府发展经济,这个问题就能解决。”

Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。

王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者,常驻北京,撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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