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中国贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元

KEITH BRADSHER

吉利汽车在杭州的工厂。德国、日本和韩国等传统制造业强国的汽车制造商和其他出口商正在被中国竞争对手抢走市场。 Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

China got the world’s attention last January when it announced that its trade surplus for goods and services had hit almost $1 trillion, an excess of exports to imports that no country had ever reached.

今年1月,中国宣布其货物和服务贸易顺差接近1万亿美元,这一消息引发了全球关注——从未有国家的出口与进口差达到如此规模。

Now China has surged through that milestone in just 11 months this year. China’s customs agency announced on Monday that the country’s accumulated trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion through November.

现在,今年刚刚过去了11个月,中国就突破了这一里程碑。中国海关总署周一宣布,截至11月底,中国累计贸易顺差达到1.08万亿美元。

Tariffs imposed by President Trump on China have caused Chinese exports to the United States to drop by nearly a fifth. But China has throttled back its purchases of American soybeans and other products by almost the same rate, continuing to sell three times as much to the United States as it buys.

特朗普总统对中国施加的关税导致中国对美出口下降近五分之一。但中国也以几乎同等幅度大量减少了对美国大豆和其他产品的采购,对美出口量仍然是进口量的三倍。

China’s $111.68 billion trade surplus in November was its third-largest ever in a single month. The overall surplus through the first 11 months of the year is up 21.7 percent from the same period last year.

中国11月贸易顺差达1116.8亿美元,创历史单月第三高。今年前11个月的总体顺差较去年同期增长21.7%。

China has ramped up considerably its sales to other countries. From cars to solar panels to consumer electronics, a tsunami of Chinese exports is flooding Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. Carmakers and other exporters in traditional manufacturing powerhouses like Germany, Japan and South Korea are losing customers to Chinese rivals. Factories in developing countries like Indonesia and South Africa have had to curtail production or even close as they struggle to match China’s low prices.

中国对其他国家的出口显著增加。从汽车到太阳能板,再到消费电子产品,中国出口的巨浪正席卷东南亚非洲欧洲拉丁美洲。德国、日本和韩国等传统制造业大国的汽车制造商和其他出口商正在被中国竞争对手抢走市场。印尼和南非等发展中国家的工厂因为难以与中国的低价竞争,不得不削减产量甚至关闭。

Chinese companies have shifted final assembly of their goods to Southeast Asia, Mexico and Africa, which then ship finished products to the United States. This has allowed them to partly bypass Mr. Trump’s tariffs on goods coming straight from China.

中国企业已将产品的最终组装环节转移到东南亚、墨西哥和非洲,再由这些地区向美国运输成品。这让它们得以部分绕过特朗普对直接从中国进口商品加征的关税。

China now sells more than twice as much to the European Union as it buys. China’s trade surplus with the region has widened considerably this year.

中国现在对欧盟的出口额已超过进口额的两倍。中国对该地区的贸易顺差今年大幅扩大。

One major reason is that China’s currency has been weak over the last several years against many other currencies, particularly the euro. Another is that prices have been falling in China, while they have been rising in the United States and Europe.

一个主要原因是,过去几年中国的货币对许多其他货币(尤其是欧元)汇率一直走弱。另一个原因是,中国物价持续下跌,而美国和欧洲的物价却在上涨。

The weakness of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, has helped propel its exports. More than a tenth of the Chinese economy now consists of its trade surplus in manufactured goods. Europe has felt the sting sharply.

人民币的疲软推动了出口的增长。目前中国制造业贸易顺差已占经济总量逾十分之一。欧洲对此感受尤其明显。

“With the renminbi undervalued by 30 percent against the euro, possibly more, it will be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to compete against Chinese manufacturers even if Europe does all the right things it needs to do in terms of deregulation, bringing down energy prices and establishing a true unified market,” said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.

“人民币相对于欧元贬值了30%,甚至可能更多。即使欧洲在放松监管、降低能源价格、建立真正统一市场等方面做了所有正确的事情,要与中国制造商竞争也将极其困难,甚至是不可能的,”中国欧盟商会主席彦辞(Jens Eskelund)表示。

China’s trade surplus in factory goods is even bigger as a share of its economy than the United States ran in the years immediately after World War II, when most other manufacturing nations were in ruins; or during the early years of World War I, when the United States was at peace and churning out civilian goods while Europe was embroiled in war.

中国在制造业贸易顺差占经济总量的比例甚至超过了美国在二战刚结束后的几年(当时大多数其他制造国百废待兴)或一战早期(当时美国远离战火、大量生产民用商品,而欧洲陷于战争)水平。

Top leaders of the International Monetary Fund, which monitors economies with the aim of preventing crises, are making their annual visit to China this week to review its currency and financial policies and are expected to announce a preliminary summary of their findings on Wednesday.

国际货币基金组织的高层领导人本周正在对中国进行年度访问,审查其货币和金融政策,并预计将在周三发布一份初步总结。该组织以预防危机为目标对各经济体实施监测。

A growing number of economists and business leaders, including former senior officials at China’s own central bank, are calling on Beijing to let the renminbi increase in value against the dollar and other currencies.

包括中国央行前高级官员在内的越来越多经济学家和商业领袖正呼吁北京允许人民币对美元和其他货币升值。

For China, a stronger renminbi would make goods like gasoline, French wines or Japanese cosmetics cheaper to import. Savings on such purchases would leave China’s households with more money to spend on Chinese goods and services, like restaurant meals, concert tickets and electric cars.

对中国来说,更强的人民币会让汽油、法国红酒或日本化妆品等商品的进口变得更便宜。节省下来的开支将使中国家庭有更多资金用于购买中国本土商品和服务,例如外出就餐、音乐会门票和电动汽车。

Reviving consumer spending in China is one of the top goals of Beijing leaders. But doing so by allowing the renminbi to strengthen would also carry costs for China.

提振国内消费是中国领导层的首要目标之一。但通过让人民币升值来实现这一点也会给中国带来代价。

A stronger renminbi would hurt China’s exporters. The dollars they earn by selling goods in foreign markets would yield fewer renminbi for them to pay workers and other expenses. Factories create millions of jobs in China, and a stronger renminbi could slow the rate at which other countries transfer manufacturing to China.

人民币升值将损害中国的出口企业。他们在海外市场销售商品赚取的美元兑换成人民币后将缩水,从而影响支付工人工资及其他开支的能力。制造业在中国创造了数以百万计的就业岗位,人民币升值可能会减缓其他国家将制造业转移到中国的速度。

China’s export success has also financed a boom in technological innovation and has given Beijing the resources to help other authoritarian countries when they encounter difficulties, notably Russia, North Korea and Iran.

中国在出口上取得的成功也为其科技创新热潮提供了资金,并让北京有能力在其他威权国家遇到困难时给予援助,尤其是俄罗斯朝鲜伊朗

China is trying to preserve its trade surplus by pressing other countries not to erect trade barriers. “Protectionism cannot solve the problems caused by global industrial restructuring, but will only worsen the international environment for trade,” Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, said on Thursday, according to a Chinese government summary of his meeting with President Emmanuel Macron of France.

中国正试图通过敦促其他国家不要设置贸易壁垒来维持其贸易顺差。根据中方发布的会晤摘要,中国最高领导人习近平在上周四与法国总统马克龙会面时表示,“保护主义不能解决世界产业结构调整的问题,反而将恶化国际贸易环境。”

Some Chinese economists nonetheless say that China must someday accept a narrower trade surplus to help its long-suffering consumers.

不过,一些中国经济学家表示,中国终有一天必须接受缩减贸易顺差,以帮助其长期承受压力的消费者。

“For China to expand domestic demand, it is necessary to minimize the trade surplus, and in the future it may even need to consider maintaining a trade deficit,” Zhang Jun, dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University in Shanghai, said in a speech last month.

“若要进一步扩大内需,就必须将贸易顺差最小化,甚至可能未来要维持贸易逆差,”复旦大学经济学院院长张军上个月在一次演讲中表示。

Ruoxin Zhang对本文有研究贡献。

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长,此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长,以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。


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