Behind a crumbling brick wall in a working-class neighborhood of Mexico City lurks a seemingly innocuous car lot. But it could be a sign of a potentially grave threat to the North American auto industry.

在墨西哥城一个工薪阶层社区，一堵破烂的砖墙后面隐藏着一个看似平平无奇的停车场。但它可能标志着北美汽车业面临的潜在严重威胁。

A makeshift dealership for the Chinese electric vehicle company BYD has sprung up in this dusty lot. Esteban Alegría, an employee, said the dealership was selling cars as fast as they arrived from China. Mr. Alegría’s top seller is the Dolphin Mini, a small but capable four-door electric compact that costs about $18,000, about $10,000 less than the cheapest battery-powered vehicle available in the United States.

在这个尘土飞扬的停车场里，中国电动汽车公司比亚迪的一家临时经销店拔地而起。经销店员工埃斯特班·阿莱格里亚说，店里的出售速度快到刚从中国运来就能卖掉。在阿莱格里亚这里，最畅销的车型是海豚迷你，这是一款小巧但性能强大的四门电动紧凑型汽车，售价约为1.8万美元，比美国最便宜的电池驱动汽车便宜约1万美元。

Mr. Alegría’s dealership is one of dozens that Chinese carmakers like BYD, Chery, Geely and SAIC are opening up around Mexico as they establish a foothold in North America.

阿莱格里亚所在的经销店是比亚迪、奇瑞、吉利和上汽等中国汽车制造商在墨西哥各地开设的数十家经销店之一，这些制造商正在北美站稳脚跟。

Chinese carmakers are effectively barred from the United States by tariffs that double the sticker price of vehicles imported from China, and they are not yet manufacturing significant numbers of vehicles in Mexico that could be exported across the border.

由于关税使从中国进口的汽车标价翻倍，中国汽车制造商实际上相当于被禁止进入美国，此外它们目前在墨西哥的生产规模还不足以出口到美国。

But their ambition to expand overseas is on vivid display in Mexico and across Latin America, Asia, Europe and Africa. Ads for Chinese brands are in airports and soccer stadiums and loom above Mexico City streets on large billboards. Chinese cars, both gasoline and electric models, are an increasingly common sight.

但它们向海外扩张的野心在墨西哥和拉丁美洲、亚洲、欧洲和非洲展现得淋漓尽致。中国品牌的广告出现在机场和足球场，墨西哥城街道上竖立着巨大的广告牌。中国汽车，无论是汽油车还是电动车，都越来越常见。

BYD and others are also looking for places to build factories in Mexico, although none have announced firm plans. Initially, the plants would serve Latin America, part of a campaign by Chinese automakers to erode the dominance of Japanese, American and European carmakers in places like Brazil and Thailand.

比亚迪和其他公司还在墨西哥寻找建厂地点，不过目前尚无一家公司宣布具体的计划。最初，这些工厂的计划是服务拉丁美洲，这是中国汽车制造商在巴西和泰国等地为削弱日本、美国和欧洲汽车制造商的主导地位而做出的努力的一部分。

But there is little doubt that, eventually, Chinese carmakers hope to use Mexico as an on-ramp to the United States.

但毫无疑问，最终中国汽车制造商希望利用墨西哥作为进入美国的入口。

“Maybe next year BYD can enter the United States,” Mr. Alegría said optimistically, as salsa music blared from a speaker hung on a pole and two men washed the dust from a newly arrived Dolphin. Nearby, workers mortared a cinder block wall, part of a new building that will replace the one-room sales office made of rough bricks topped by a corrugated metal roof.

“也许明年比亚迪可以进入美国市场，”阿莱格里亚乐观地说道，此时，挂在柱子上的扬声器播放着萨尔萨音乐，两名男子正在清洗刚到货的比亚迪海豚上的灰尘。旁边，工人们正在用灰泥砌成一堵煤渣砌块墙，这是新建筑的一部分，它将取代由粗糙的砖块砌成、屋顶是波纹金属板且仅有一间的销售办公室。

“If not,” Mr. Alegría added, with a smile, “I can deliver.”

“如果不能，”阿莱格里亚微笑着补充道，“我可以送货。”

It is very unlikely that the Dolphin or any other Chinese car brand will be available in the United States soon. Because of the high tariffs, Chinese carmakers have not tried to establish dealerships or get approval from federal regulators to sell in the United States. (BYD does make electric buses in California.)

比亚迪海豚或任何其他中国汽车品牌短时间内都不太可能进入美国。由于高关税，中国汽车制造商没有试图开设经销店铺或向联邦监管机构申请在美国销售的执照。(但比亚迪在加州生产电动公交车。)

And someone buying a BYD from a Mexican dealer like Mr. Alegría would have a hard time registering and insuring it in the United States because the cars have not demonstrated that they meet safety standards.

从阿莱格里亚这样的墨西哥经销商那里购买比亚迪的人将很难在美国注册和投保，因为这些汽车没有证明它们符合安全标准。

President Biden and President-elect Donald J. Trump have been emphatic about wanting to keep Chinese automakers out of the United States, well aware of the threat they pose to U.S. car and auto parts factories that employ a million workers.

拜登总统和候任总统特朗普反复重申希望阻止中国汽车制造商进入美国，他们很清楚这些制造商对雇佣了100万工人的美国汽车和零部件工厂构成的威胁。

Mr. Trump has threatened 25 percent tariffs on all Mexican products, including cars. Mr. Biden has pursued policies aimed at fending off the challenge from China, including subsidies for U.S. battery factories. The Chinese government has long subsidized carmakers with the goal of becoming a major auto exporter.

特朗普威胁对包括汽车在内的所有墨西哥产品征收25%的关税。拜登则一直奉行旨在抵御中国挑战的政策，包括为美国电池工厂提供补贴。中国政府长期补贴汽车制造商，目标是成为一个主要的汽车出口国。

伊斯塔帕拉帕的比亚迪经销店是比亚迪、奇瑞、吉利和上汽等中国汽车制造商在墨西哥各地开设的数十家经销店之一，这些制造商正在北美市场站稳脚跟。

But in the years to come it may be difficult to explain to consumers in the United States why they’re not allowed to buy inexpensive electric vehicles that are readily available across the border, especially if they’re made in Mexico, which already manufactures millions of cars for the United States.

但在未来几年可能很难向美国消费者解释为什么他们不能购买平价的电动汽车，这些车在边境之外随处可见，尤其是如果它们是在墨西哥制造的，而墨西哥已经在为美国生产数以百万计的汽车。

Less than 20 years ago, Chinese cars were widely seen as inferior, even by many Chinese drivers. But in recent years, the country’s manufacturers have pulled even with foreign rivals in mechanical quality, analysts say, and often surpass U.S., Japanese and European carmakers in battery technology, autonomous driving and entertainment software. (Think in-car karaoke and rotating touch screens.)

不到20年前，中国汽车被普遍视为劣等品，甚至许多中国司机也这样看。但分析师称，近年来，中国制造商在机械质量方面与外国竞争对手不相上下，在电池技术、自动驾驶和娱乐软件方面常常超过美国、日本和欧洲的汽车制造商。（比如车内有卡拉OK和旋转触摸屏。）

Chinese carmakers have clawed significant market share domestically from once-dominant companies like Volkswagen. Even Tesla, which has a large factory in Shanghai, has lost ground to BYD and other Chinese carmakers. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, will be in a position to influence U.S. auto and China policy after spending more than $250 million to support the Trump campaign and becoming a close adviser to the president-elect.

中国汽车制造商已经从大众汽车等一度占据主导地位的公司手中夺取了大量国内市场份额。即使是在上海拥有大型工厂的特斯拉也已经在比亚迪和其他中国汽车制造商面前失去了竞争力。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克将有能力影响美国汽车和中国政策，此前他斥资逾2.5亿美元支持特朗普竞选，并成为这位候任总统的亲密顾问。

“Before the pandemic, the rules were set down by the Western carmakers,” said Felipe Munoz, global analyst at JATO Dynamics, a research firm. “Now it’s the opposite.”

“在疫情之前，规则是由西方汽车制造商制定的，”研究公司JATO Dynamics的全球分析师费利佩·穆尼奥斯说。“现在正好相反。”

Representatives of several Chinese carmakers declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. Jorge Vallejo, BYD’s director general for Mexico, agreed to an interview but canceled abruptly as New York Times reporters waited outside his office in Mexico City. The company’s representative declined to reschedule or make other executives available.

几家中国汽车制造商的代表或拒绝置评，或没有回应置评请求。虽然比亚迪墨西哥公司总经理豪尔赫·巴列霍同意接受采访，但就在《纽约时报》的记者在他位于墨西哥城的办公室外等着与其见面时，他突然取消了采访。公司代表拒绝重新安排采访时间，或安排其他高管接受采访。

China’s car market is the world’s largest by far, and the growing prowess of domestic producers is having far-reaching effects. General Motors said on Wednesday that it would take a more than $5 billion hit to its profit as it restructured its operations in China, which have been losing money in recent years.

中国的汽车市场现在远大于世界上其他汽车市场，国内汽车制造商不断增长的实力给外界带来深远影响。通用汽车周三表示，因为在对近年来一直亏损的中国业务进行重组，公司四季度的利润将降低至少50亿美元。

墨西哥城的一辆白色比亚迪电动车。中国品牌汽车目前占墨西哥新车销量的9%，而五年前这一比例几乎为零。

Mary T. Barra, G.M.’s chief executive, acknowledged the price pressure from Chinese carmakers during an interview in October. “We’ll continue to look at smart ways to take cost out,” she said, while insisting that the company could still compete with China.

在今年10月份的一次采访中，通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉承认中国汽车制造商给公司带来价格压力。“我们将继续寻找降低成本的聪明办法，”她说，同时坚称公司仍能与中国竞争。

Arno Antlitz, the chief financial officer of Volkswagen, noted that the industry had dealt with new competitors before, including Japanese carmakers in the 1970s and South Korean carmakers in recent decades. “We think we have a competitive setup,” he said in an interview in October.

大众汽车首席财务官阿诺·安特利茨指出，汽车行业以前也曾面临过新竞争对手的问题，包括20世纪70年代与日本汽车制造商，以及近几十年里与韩国汽车制造商的竞争。“我们认为我们有竞争优势，”他在今年10月的一次采访中说。

Still, the auto industry does not appear to have seen anything like the current wave of Chinese brands, which have quickly overtaken Japanese companies as the world’s largest auto exporters.

尽管如此，汽车行业似乎从未遇到过与当前中国车企带来的浪潮类似的情形，中国制造商已迅速取代了日本公司，成为全球最大的汽车出口商。

Chinese carmakers have made deep inroads in countries where they have local production or face few significant trade barriers. In Brazil, Chinese brands have a 9 percent share of car sales, up from 1 percent in 2019. In Thailand, they have 18 percent of the market, up from 5 percent in 2019, according to JATO.

中国汽车制造商已在拥有本地工厂，或者没有大的贸易壁垒的国家取得了长足进步。中国品牌已在巴西的汽车销量中占到9%，高于2019年的1%。根据JATO的数据，中国品牌也占泰国汽车市场份额的18%，高于2019年的5%。

In Mexico, Chinese brands now account for 9 percent of new car sales, up from effectively nothing five years ago.

中国品牌目前占墨西哥新车销量的9%，而五年前这个比例几乎为零。

“They gained market share when other brands didn’t have inventory and there were long waits to get cars in Mexico,” said Guillermo Rosales Zárate, president of the Mexican Association of Automobile Distributors.

“当其他品牌没有库存，墨西哥人要等待很长时间才能到货的情况下，中国品牌赢得了市场份额，”墨西哥汽车经销商协会主席吉列尔莫·罗萨莱斯·萨拉特说。

In San Luis Potosí, an industrial hub 250 miles north of Mexico City, BYD models are taking customers from Toyota, said Fernando López, manager of a dealership that sells both brands from a showroom in an upscale neighborhood.

 费尔南多·洛佩茲是墨西哥城以北400公里的工业中心圣路易斯波多西一个高档社区的汽车经销商经理，他说，比亚迪的车型正在把丰田的顾客抢走，他的展厅里有这两个品牌的汽车。

BYD’s Shark pickup, a $45,000 plug-in hybrid, is poaching buyers from the Toyota Tacoma, he said, while the BYD Song, a $30,000 plug-in S.U.V., is luring customers from the Toyota RAV4. The Chinese models cost $10,000 less than the comparable Toyotas.

比亚迪的Shark皮卡是一款售价4.5万美元的插电式混合动力车，他说，这款车正在抢走丰田Tacoma的顾客，而比亚迪 Song是一款售价3万美元的插电式SUV，它正在吸引丰田RAV4的客户。中国品牌的车型比同类丰田车型便宜1万美元。

“I don’t know if people are going to let them sell in the United States,” Mr. López said, referring to BYD, “but they can compete with any brand.”

“我不知道美国人是否会允许它们在美国销售，”洛佩茲谈到比亚迪时说，“但它们能与任何品牌竞争。”

费尔南多·洛佩茲是圣路易斯波多西一家比亚迪经销商的经理，他身后是2025年版的BYD Shark插电式混合动力皮卡。

Mexico is the world’s seventh-largest auto producer, just behind South Korea and Germany. Most major carmakers have factories in Mexico, including G.M., Ford Motor, Stellantis and Volkswagen. Many use parts from Chinese companies like Minghua, which produces bumpers and other components from a plant next to a large BMW factory outside San Luis Potosí.

墨西哥是世界第七大汽车生产国，仅次于韩国和德国。大多数主要汽车制造商在墨西哥设有工厂，包括通用汽车、福特汽车、斯特兰蒂斯以及大众汽车。这些汽车制造商大都使用来自明华等中国公司的零部件，明华在圣路易斯波多西郊外有一家生产保险杠和其他零部件的工厂，一个大型宝马工厂就在它旁边。

Almost 80 percent of vehicles produced in Mexico, more than two million through September, went to the United States, according to the Mexican Automotive Industry Association.

据墨西哥汽车工业协会，墨西哥生产的汽车中有近80%销往美国，到今年9月为止已超过200万辆。

Although U.S. tariffs on cars made in China are high, in theory Chinese cars made in Mexico and exported north of the border would currently have to pay a maximum tariff of just 2.5 percent.

尽管美国对中国制造的汽车征收高关税，但理论上，在墨西哥生产并出口到美国的中国汽车目前只需缴纳最高2.5%的关税。

But the United States would probably put pressure on the Mexican government to erect barriers to Chinese automakers. Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has played down talk of a BYD factory in Mexico and emphasized that relations with the United States are the government’s top priority.

但美国可能会向墨西哥政府施压，要求它对中国汽车制造商设置障碍。墨西哥新任总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆已淡化了有关比亚迪在墨西哥建工厂的传言，并强调，与美国的关系是其政府的首要任务。

Mexico is “so economically tied to the U.S., at the end of the day this is a straightforward calculation,” said Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who focuses on international economic relations. In October, the Mexican government raised the tariff on imported cars to 20 percent from 15 percent, in what was widely seen as a reaction to growing sales of Chinese vehicles.

墨西哥“在经济上与美国联系得如此紧密，这一考量到头来并不复杂”，布鲁金斯学会专门研究国际经济关系的高级研究员乔舒亚·梅尔策说。今年10月，墨西哥政府将进口汽车的关税从15%提高到20%，此举被广泛视为对中国汽车销量增长的反应。

The threat from China will grow as electric vehicles become more popular. Those cars already account for half of all new cars in China, giving the country’s carmakers a head start.

随着电动汽车越来越受欢迎，来自中国的威胁将越来越大。电动汽车已占中国新车总产量的一半，让中国汽车制造商有起步优势。

Auto executives expect electric vehicles to eventually supplant gasoline and diesel models even if Mr. Trump removes financial incentives for such cars and trucks. G.M., Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and others have staked billions of dollars on electric-car and battery factories.

汽车业高管预计，即使特朗普取消对电动汽车和卡车的经济激励，电动汽车也将最终取代使用汽油和柴油的车型。通用汽车、现代、梅赛德斯-奔驰等公司都已在电动汽车和电池工厂上投入了数十亿美元的资金。

In Mexico, electric vehicles account for less than 2 percent of new car sales, but have grown more than 40 percent this year despite a dearth of public chargers. Electric vehicles in Mexico City are exempt from restrictions that apply to gasoline and diesel vehicles on days when air pollution is very bad.

墨西哥的电动汽车销量在新车销量中占比不到2%，但今年的电动汽车销量已增长了40%以上，尽管该国缺少公共充电桩。在空气污染严重的日子里，墨西哥城的电动汽车不受汽油和柴油汽车出行的限制。

That helps the Dolphin Mini, said Daniela Alvarez, a saleswoman at another BYD dealership squeezed into a storefront beneath a Mexico City parking garage.

这助推了海豚迷你的销量，在另一家比亚迪经销店的销售员丹妮拉·阿尔瓦雷斯说，这家销售店位于墨西哥城一个停车场下面。

Ms. Alvarez rattled off the Dolphin’s technical specifications, including its advanced battery technology, rotating video display and four airbags. While Chinese electric vehicles still cost more than gasoline models, she said, they cost only 30 percent as much to fuel.

阿尔瓦雷斯滔滔不绝地说起海豚迷你的技术规格，包括先进的电池技术、能旋转的显示屏，以及四个安全气囊。她说，虽然中国电动汽车的价格仍高于汽油车​​型，但燃料成本仅为汽油车型的30%。

“Electricity is cheaper than gas,” she said. “You can make up the difference.”

“电比汽油便宜，”她说。“用久了能补上汽车的售价差额。”