Soaring Chinese demand for durian, a Southeast Asian fruit famous for its intense smell and rich taste, brought Liew Jia Soon home to Malaysia in 2018. He had been living abroad, but his father’s durian farm, in the hills north of Kuala Lumpur, was poised to make more money than ever.

中国市场对榴莲这种以气味浓烈、口感醇厚著称的东南亚水果需求暴涨，这促使刘家俊（音）在2018年回到了马来西亚。他此前一直在国外生活，但他父亲位于吉隆坡北部山区的榴莲园当时正迎来前所未有的赚钱良机。

Eight years later, the farm has grown to cover twice as much land as it did a decade ago. But the spectacular earnings that brought Mr. Liew back have evaporated.

八年过去，这座果园的面积已是十年前的两倍。可当初吸引他回国的丰厚利润却已烟消云散。

“We farmers have seen a 60 percent drop in profits during this season,” he said on a recent Sunday, as he looked over hundreds of unsold durians last month at a collection point near his farm in Raub.

“我们农户这个产季的利润跌了60%，”上个月一个周日，他在劳勿县自家果园附近的收购点看着几百颗卖不出去的榴莲说道。

The problem is not that Chinese buyers have lost interest in durian. In fact, the country’s seemingly insatiable appetite for the fruit has continued despite a downturn in the economy late last year. But China’s standards have shifted over the last year or so: No longer do most buyers want the frozen shipments that are Malaysia’s stock-in-trade. They want their fruit fresh.

问题并非出在中国买家对榴莲失去了兴趣。事实上，尽管去年底经济有所放缓，中国对这种水果的旺盛需求依然持续。但过去一年左右，中国的标准发生了变化，大多数买家不再想要马来西亚主打出口的冷冻榴莲，他们要的是鲜果。

The change has thrown Malaysia’s durian industry into turmoil.

这一转变让马来西亚榴莲业陷入动荡。

刘家俊（音）在劳勿的果园里采收榴莲。“本季利润下降了60%，”他表示。刘家俊的果园规模已扩大至十年前的两倍。但惊人的收益却已烟消云散。

“We need to get the supply chain to cater for this change in exporting fresh durians,” said Eric Chan, president of the Durian Manufacturer Association, an organization that represents Malaysian durian farmers and distributors. There are a limited number of flights from Malaysia to China that can support the shipment of fresh produce, Mr. Chan said.

“我们必须让供应链跟上出口鲜榴莲的变化，”代表马来西亚榴莲种植者和经销商的榴莲生产商协会主席埃里克·陈表示。他说，能承运生鲜的马来西亚至中国航班数量十分有限。

“I am worried,” he added.

“我很担心，”他补充说。

The market shift has left Malaysia’s durian farmers with a glut of produce. Some in the country are calling the crisis a “durian tsunami.” Prices sank in December to a decade low of 10 ringgit per kilogram, or about $1 a pound and a tenth of what sellers could previously ask.

市场变化让马来西亚榴莲果农面临产品过剩困境。国内有人将这场危机称为“榴莲海啸”。去年12月，价格跌至十年低点，每公斤仅10林吉特（约合每磅一美元），只有此前售价的十分之一。

The crisis has been exacerbated by the unpredictability inherent in durian farming. It can take between five and 10 years for a newly planted durian tree to reach maturity and produce fruit. That leaves farmers with the tricky proposition of predicting future demand up to 10 years in advance.

榴莲种植固有的不可预测性更是加剧了这场危机。一棵新种的榴莲树需要五到10年才能成熟结果。这意味着果农不得不面对一个棘手的难题：必须提前近10年预判未来需求。

In 2017, Malaysian exports of frozen durian pulp and paste were winning a greater share of the Chinese market. Growers planted aggressively, betting that demand would rise.

2017年，马来西亚出口的冷冻榴莲果肉和果泥在中国市场份额不断扩大。种植户们大举扩种，押注需求会持续上涨。

吉隆坡榴莲乐园的食客们。榴莲餐厅和街边摊位深受当地居民和游客喜爱。吉隆坡民众购买榴莲。上月其价格跌至十年低点，每公斤约2.50美元，仅为此前卖家要价的十分之一。

When frozen whole durians were approved for export to China in 2019, it seemed the bet had paid off. Prices soared, and farmers further expanded their crop.

2019年，冷冻整果榴莲获准出口中国，这场赌注看似大获全胜。价格飙升，果农进一步扩大种植。

By 2024, durian plantations covered more than 227,000 acres in Malaysia, up from just over 163,000 acres in 2016, and nationwide production had nearly doubled in that time to more than 568,000 tons, according to government data.

马来西亚政府数据显示，到2024年，全国榴莲种植面积从2016年的约6.6万公顷增至9.1万公顷以上，同期全国产量几乎翻倍，超过56.8万吨。

That expansion is now feeding into today’s glut.

这种扩张正导致当前的供过于求局面。

Lim Chin Khee, an adviser to the Durian Academy, an organization that trains growers in Malaysia, said the recent slowdown in China’s economy had also made buyers more particular and tougher in price negotiations.

马来西亚榴莲种植者培训机构榴莲学院的顾问林振基（音）指出，中国近期经济放缓也让买家更加挑剔，在价格谈判中态度更加强硬。

And competition from other durian exporters in Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, has dealt another blow to Malaysian farmers.

而来自泰国、越南、印尼等东南亚其他榴莲出口国的竞争更是给马来西亚果农带来了又一重打击。

Ken Tan, whose family owns Durianhill Plantation in the state of Penang, said its exports to China had fallen by 40 percent this season compared with last year’s.

槟城榴莲山种植园负责人陈健（音）说，本季对华出口比去年下降了40%。

Malaysia’s competitors are likely to experience a similar contraction soon, said Sam Tan, president of the Malaysia Durian Exporters Association, an industry trade group.

马来西亚榴莲出口商协会主席山姆·陈（音）表示，马来西亚的竞争对手很快也会遭遇类似的萎缩局面。

TikTok直播平台上，商家正向顾客推出各类优惠促销活动。为弥补部分损失，马来西亚农民正以低价抛售大量农产品。吉隆坡某餐厅外一座巨型榴莲雕塑。

“Thailand will also face these low prices soon during their peak season in April,” Mr. Tan said.

“泰国也将在4月旺季面临低价压力，”他说。

But for many Malaysian consumers the crash is a welcome change. Chinese demand, many had complained until recently, had priced them out. Now they are buying durians at pennies on the dollar.

但对许多马来西亚普通消费者来说，价格暴跌却是好事。直到不久前，还有不少人抱怨，中国需求把榴莲价格抬得太高，本地人吃不起。如今他们只需花很少的钱就能买到榴莲。

At a night market last month, just outside Kuala Lumpur, the fruit’s pungent smell hung in the air. Dozens of pop-up stalls lined the streets, their tables piled high with durians the size of rugby balls. Customers stood around eating the fruit’s thick, creamy flesh.

上个月在吉隆坡郊外的一处夜市，空气中弥漫着榴莲刺鼻的气味。街边几十家临时摊位的桌上堆着橄榄球大小的榴莲。顾客围站一旁，品尝着果肉厚实、质地如奶油般的榴莲。

The government has also intervened, buying some of the excess fruit in a bid to help keep farmers afloatir. The agriculture ministry has said that it hopes the industry can recover in part by marketing Malaysian durian as a premium product instead of chasing high-volume sales.

政府也出手干预，收购了部分过剩榴莲，帮助果农维持生计。农业部表示，希望行业能将马来西亚榴莲打造成高端产品，而非一味追求高销量，以此实现部分复苏。

The country’s minister of agriculture, Mohamad Sabu, described the glut as “temporary,” adding that the next peak season, in June, would be a clearer test

马来西亚农业部长莫哈末沙布称此次过剩是“暂时的”，并表示6月到来的下一个旺季将是更明确的考验。

“I still believe that durians will be the economic boom for Malaysia,” he said in an interview.

“我依然相信，榴莲会成为马来西亚的经济增长点，”他在采访中说。

政府进行了干预，购买了部分过剩水果，以帮助农民维持生计。

Regional producers are skeptical. They are watching closely as China pushes to grow its own durians to achieve what Chinese agriculture experts have called “durian freedom.”

地区种植户对此却持怀疑态度。他们正密切关注中国大力发展本土榴莲种植的动向——中国农业专家称此举旨在实现“榴莲自由”。

As official figures suggest that production in Malaysia will rise further to 590,000 tons this year, exporters are targeting new markets like Taiwan and Peru.

官方数据显示，马来西亚今年榴莲产量将进一步增至59万吨，出口商正瞄准台湾、秘鲁等新市场。

But they are nowhere near as big as China.

但这些市场的规模远不及中国。

Stephen Chow, who runs a durian plantation called Chow Kai Pheng Enterprise, said supply was likely to outstrip demand over the next three to five years as thousands of durian trees planted years ago begin to bear fruit.

经营周启平（音）企业榴莲园的史蒂芬·周表示，未来三到五年，随着多年前种下的数以千计的榴莲树陆续进入盛果期，供应量很可能持续超过需求。

What Malaysia is experiencing now “is just a preview,” he said.

马来西亚现在经历的一切“只是预告而已”，他说。

在劳勿，果园覆盖着山坡，该地区被视为马来西亚榴莲产业的中心。