For the first time, China has announced a detailed target for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from its immense economy, saying on Wednesday that it would cut carbon dioxide and other pollution by at least 7 to 10 percent by 2035.

中国在周三首次宣布关于减少温室气体排放的详细目标，表示到2035年将把二氧化碳和其他污染物的排放量至少削减7%至10%。

The plan was detailed by President Xi Jinping, speaking by video link at a United Nations climate summit.

这一计划是中国国家主席习近平在联合国气候峰会上通过视频发表讲话时宣布的。

In the past, China had pledged only that its greenhouse gas emissions would continue rising until they peaked around 2030. Now, however, studies suggest that China’s emissions have already reached a plateau, five years earlier than expected.

过去，中国仅承诺其温室气体排放量将持续增长直至约2030年左右达到峰值。但如今有研究表明，中国的排放量可能已经达峰，比预期提前了五年。

In his Wednesday statement, Mr. Xi also said China would increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels in its energy system to more than 30 percent over the next decade, referring to solar, wind and hydropower. That would translate into a drop in greenhouse gas emissions if these sources replace coal-burning plants, which China remains heavily reliant on.

习近平在周三的讲话中还表示，未来十年内，中国能源体系中非化石能源（指太阳能、风能和水电）的比例将提高到30%以上。如果这些能源能够替代中国目前仍严重依赖的燃煤电厂，那么温室气体排放将会相应下降。

His brief appearance on the screen was a testament to China’s epic scale in ramping up its use of renewable energy. He said China plans to expand wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels, adding up to a massive 3,600 gigawatts in all. He also said China would make electric cars “mainstream” in new sales.

中国领导人此次简短的视频露面印证了中国在加速可再生能源利用方面的巨大规模。他表示，中国计划将风能和太阳能装机容量达到2020年的六倍以上，总规模达到惊人的36亿千瓦。他还表示，中国将使新能源汽车成为新销售车辆的“主流”。

Mr. Xi’s remarks came as world leaders gathered at the United Nations Wednesday to detail their latest plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, as part of the global Paris Agreement to combat warming. They followed by a day President Trump’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly where he called efforts to rein in climate change “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.”

习近平作出此番表态之际，世界各国领导人在周三齐聚联合国详细阐述各自到2035年削减温室气体排放的最新计划，这是全球《巴黎协定》应对气候变暖努力的一部分。特朗普总统前一天在联合国大会上发表演讲，称遏制气候变化的努力是“有史以来全世界最大的骗局”。

China’s latest climate targets matter for several reasons. First, China currently is the world’s biggest polluter, which means that without a significant turnaround, there is little hope of slowing down global warming.

中国最新的气候目标之所以具有重要意义，有以下几个原因。首先，中国目前是全球最大的污染排放国，这意味着如果它没有重大转变，全球变暖几乎不可能得到遏制。

China’s new climate target is also a sharp contrast to the posture of the United States, which has contributed the largest share of emissions since the start of the industrial era and which has repudiated climate action under the Trump administration. In addition, China’s announcement is a nudge to other big polluters, like the European Union and India, to step up and submit new 2035 targets as required under the Paris accord. The European Union has issued tentative targets, and India has not yet submitted its plan.

中国的新气候目标也与美国的姿态形成鲜明对比。自工业时代以来，美国一直是累计排放量最大的国家，但在特朗普政府领导下，美国否定了应对气候变化的行动。此外，中国的声明也是对欧盟和印度等其他主要排放体的敦促，要求它们根据《巴黎协定》的规定提出新的2035年目标。欧盟已发布初步目标，而印度尚未提交计划。

Climate advocates pointed out that China’s steps alone were not strong enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals to limit global temperature rise to relatively manageable levels, but they also suggested that China may be underpromising, and that changes to its energy mix could happen more swiftly. “This 2035 target offers little assurance to keep our planet safe, but what’s hopeful is that the actual decarbonization of China’s economy is likely to exceed its target on paper,” said Yao Zhe, the global policy adviser at Greenpeace East Asia.

气候倡导人士指出，仅靠中国的举措还不足以实现《巴黎协定》将全球气温升幅控制在相对可控范围内的目标，但他们也认为中国可能低报了目标，能源结构的转型速度或许更快。绿色和平东亚区全球政策顾问姚喆表示：“2035年的目标对保障地球安全提供的保证有限，但令人心怀希望的是，中国经济的实际脱碳进程很可能超越了其书面目标。”

The United States is not expected to set a new goal. It has announced that it will pull out from the Paris Agreement.

美国预计不会设定新目标。该国已经宣布将退出《巴黎协定》。

Ultimately, what matters most is not what China announces but what China is doing. It has become the world’s clean-energy powerhouse. It is investing hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy projects around the world. That is beginning to transform the global economy, and also geopolitics.

归根结底，最重要的并非中国宣布了什么，而是中国的实际行动。中国已成为全球清洁能源强国，正在向世界各地的清洁能源项目投资数千亿美元。这不仅开始改变全球经济格局，也正在重塑地缘政治。

China’s latest target, known in diplomatic jargon as its Nationally Determined Contribution, “is outflanked by the real economic transition already underway in the clean tech sector,” said Li Shuo, who directs the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society’s Policy Institute. “In the absence of the U.S. and E.U., China will be the only game in town,” he said.

亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕表示，中国的最新目标（外交术语称为“国家自主贡献”）“已被清洁技术领域正在进行的真实经济转型所超越”。他指出：“在美欧缺位的情况下，中国将成为场上唯一的主角。”

China dominates the production and processing of minerals, including nickel and lithium, required for renewable energy technology. Chinese firms lead the world in the production of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, and the sheer scale of that activity has driven down prices so quickly that in many countries, solar and wind energy are cheaper than power from coal, oil or gas.

中国在包括镍、锂在内的矿产开采和加工方面占据主导地位，而这些是可再生能源技术所需的关键矿产。中国企业在太阳能电池板、风力发电机和电池的生产方面居世界领先地位，其庞大的生产规模迅速拉低了价格，以至于在许多国家，太阳能和风能的成本已经低于煤炭、石油或天然气发电。

China also produces more electric cars and motorcycles than any other country in the world and is increasingly setting up factories on nearly every continent. One recent study went as far as to suggest that China’s push into renewable energy technology is “creating the conditions for a decline in fossil fuel use.”

中国的新能源车和电动摩托车产量位居世界首位，并正在几乎所有大洲建设工厂。近期一项研究甚至指出，中国在可再生能源技术上的大力投入正在“为化石燃料使用的减少创造条件”。

The story of China’s energy trajectory mirrors the story of China’s rise as a global power.

中国的能源发展轨迹映射出它崛起为全球大国的历程。

In the 1990s, it became the world’s factory floor by burning mountains of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, to power its factories. It still burns more coal than any other country, and it is still building coal-burning power plants.

上世纪90年代，中国依靠燃烧大量煤炭——最肮脏的化石燃料——来为工厂提供电力，从而成为“世界工厂”。至今，中国仍是全球煤炭消耗最多的国家，并且仍在新建燃煤电厂。

But it’s unclear to what extent they will be used in the years to come, because China is adding renewable energy to its grid at astonishing scale and speed. In 2023 China added more solar power capacity than the United States has built in total.

但这些新建燃煤电厂未来的实际使用程度尚不明确，因为中国正以惊人的规模和速度将可再生能源接入电网。2023年一年，中国新增的太阳能发电装机容量就超过了美国迄今为止的太阳能装机总量。

Independent analysts see a significant tipping point in China’s emissions trajectory. After growing for two decades, there are signs that its greenhouse gas emissions appear to be flattening out. One study showed that China’s power-sector emissions dropped by 2 percent between March 2024 and March 2025, and while that is a small number, they projected that the trend would probably continue through the rest of this year.

独立分析人士认为，中国的排放轨迹正迎来一个重要的拐点。在经历了20年的增长之后，如今其温室气体排放量似乎正在趋于平稳。一项研究显示，2024年3月至2025年3月间，中国电力行业的排放下降了2%。虽然这个数字不算大，但研究人员预测，这一趋势可能会在今年余下的时间里持续。

That matters worldwide. Without a swift decline in China’s emissions, there is no chance of keeping global temperature increases to relatively manageable levels. By global scientific consensus, that means limiting the rise of the average global temperature to well under 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, and ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

这一点对全球至关重要。倘若中国的排放不能快速下降，就不可能将全球气温升幅控制在相对可控的范围内。全球科学界的共识是：必须把全球平均气温的升幅限制在比工业化前水平高出2摄氏度以内，理想情况下应控制在1.5摄氏度。

There’s been another important shift. China was the leading builder of coal-burning power plants in the rest of the world. In 2021, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, promised a U-turn. He said China would stop building or financing coal abroad and instead promote clean energy technologies. That pledge appears to have been mostly kept. There has been no foreign direct investment in coal projects, nor loans from China’s two main development banks since 2021, according to an analysis by Boston University, though the plants already underway “will emit carbon dioxide for decades going forward.”

另一个重要转变在于，中国曾是海外燃煤电厂的主要建设者。但在2021年，中国国家主席习近平承诺要“急转弯”：中国将停止在海外新建或资助燃煤电厂，转而推广清洁能源技术。这一承诺似乎基本得到兑现。波士顿大学的一项分析指出，自2021年以来没有新的海外煤电项目获得外国直接投资或其两大开发银行的贷款，不过那些此前已在建项目“或将在未来数十年持续排放二氧化碳”。