President Trump’s tariffs are already taking a toll on China’s factories.

特朗普总统加征的关税已开始伤及中国的制造业。

Three weeks into a trade war that pushed import tariffs of Chinese-made goods to 145 percent, an official report on manufacturing activity signaled that in April, Chinese factories experienced the sharpest monthly slowdown in more than a year.

在这场将中国商品的进口关税推高至145%的贸易战打响三周后，中国国家统计局周三发布的制造业调查报告显示，4月中国制造业活动出现了逾一年来最剧烈的月度萎缩。

The report, a survey of industrial firms published on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics, provides the first official indication of how the U.S. tariffs are affecting the Chinese economy. China has responded to the U.S. tariffs with 125 percent tariffs of its own on American goods.

国家统计局周三发布的这份针对工业企业的报告首次从官方角度揭示了美国关税政策对中国经济的影响。作为反制，中国对美国商品加征了125%的关税。

The trade brinkmanship threatens U.S. and Chinese growth — and potentially the global economy. Emerging signs of hardship in both countries have ratcheted up pressure on President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, to strike a deal to break the impasse.

贸易的边缘政策威胁着中美两国的经济增长，甚至可能影响全球经济。两国出现的经济困境初步迹象加大了特朗普总统和中国最高领导人习近平达成协议以打破僵局的压力。

Neither Beijing nor Washington appears ready to blink. China’s foreign ministry released a video on Tuesday, saying that the country refuses to cave to “a bully.” President Trump, in an interview with ABC News on Tuesday, continued to push back, saying China was “ripping us off like nobody’s ever ripped us off.” He said he believed that China “probably will eat those tariffs,” defying anxiety among consumers and businesses about the impact of the import taxes he has imposed.

北京和华盛顿似乎都不准备作出让步。中国外交部周二发布了一段视频，称中国拒绝向“霸权的欺凌”屈服。特朗普总统在周二接受ABC新闻采访时继续反驳，称中国“一直在占我们便宜，从来没有哪个国家像它这样”。他表示，他相信中国“很可能会承担那些关税”，尽管消费者和企业对其加征关税的影响忧心忡忡。

On Tuesday, the shipping giant United Parcel Service announced it would cut 20,000 jobs and close 73 buildings this year. General Motors said it could no longer stand by its previous forecast for solid profit growth this year, citing Mr. Trump’s tariffs on imported cars and imported parts. U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest levels in five years.

周二，物流巨头UPS宣布今年将裁员2万人，并关闭73处设施。通用汽车表示，由于特朗普对进口汽车和进口零部件加征关税，公司无法再维持此前对今年稳健利润增长的预期。美国消费者信心降至五年来的最低水平。

China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.0 in April, down from 50.5 in March. A reading below 50 indicates a deterioration in activity in the sector. The index was above 50 in the previous two months, driven by a bump in orders ahead of the tariffs. The April figure was below what economists had expected.

中国制造业采购经理指数从3月的50.5降至4月的49.0。该指数低于50表明制造业活动出现恶化。受关税生效前订单增加的推动，前两个月该指数均高于50。4月的数据低于经济学家的预期。

The survey’s reading on new orders of goods for export was at its lowest levels since the Covid-19 pandemic, dragging down the overall index. Also, a gauge of manufacturing employment contracted to its lowest level since February 2024.

该调查显示，出口商品新订单的读数创下了自新冠疫情以来的最低水平，拖累了整体指数。此外，衡量制造业就业人数的指标也出现萎缩，处于自2024年2月以来的最低水平。

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients that the data “suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools.” Steps the government is taking to pump money into the economy are “unlikely to fully offset the drag,” she said. Capital Economics forecasts the Chinese economy will grow 3.5 percent this year, which is well short of the government’s 5 percent growth target.

凯投宏观的中国经济学家黄子春（音）在给客户的一份报告中表示，这些数据“表明随着外部需求降温，中国经济正面临压力”。她说，政府为刺激经济而采取的措施“不太可能完全抵消这种阻碍”。凯投宏观预测，中国经济今年将增长3.5%，远低于政府设定的5%的增长目标。

In a research report on Tuesday, Nomura Securities said that if Chinese exports to the United States were to drop 50 percent, 5.7 million people in China could lose their jobs immediately. That number could grow to 15.8 million workers once the long-term effects rippled through the economy.

野村证券在周二的一份研究报告中称，如果中国对美国的出口下降50%，中国将有570万人立即失业。一旦长期影响波及整个经济，失业人数将增至1580万。

Beijing has pledged to support its economy during the trade war with the United States, with a long list of initiatives aimed at encouraging its people to spend more. Among the ideas being proposed are pushing local governments to increase subsidies for those in need and improve pension benefits for retirees.

中国政府已承诺在与美国的贸易战中支持本国经济，并提出了一长串旨在鼓励民众增加消费的举措。其中包括推动地方政府增加对贫困人口的补贴，提高退休人员的养老金福利。

Chinese officials are hoping to stimulate domestic spending, which has remained stubbornly weak in the face of a property crisis that is weighing on the country’s economy. To offset that stagnation in consumption, the Chinese economy has relied even more heavily on exports.

中国官员希望刺激国内消费，因为面对拖累中国经济的房地产危机，国内消费一直持续疲软。为了抵消消费停滞的影响，中国经济对出口的依赖程度甚至变得更高了。

On Wednesday, China passed a law aimed at preserving the rights of private companies. China’s focus in recent years on security and state control has come at the expense of the dynamism that helped propel China to become the world’s second-largest economy.

周三，中国通过了一项旨在保护民营企业权益的法律。近年来，中国对安全和政府管控的关注是以牺牲曾助力中国成为世界第二大经济体的经济活力为代价的。

Private business owners have complained that their economic interests and rights are often overlooked in favor of government priorities and policies. At face value, this law aims to alleviate some of those concerns.

民营企业家抱怨说，他们的经济利益和权利往往被政府的优先事项和政策所忽视。从表面上看，该法律旨在缓解其中部分担忧。