2025年5月28日
When President Trump temporarily reduced tariffs this month on imports from China from the astronomical level that he had set in March, the stock market soared and economists said a recession was now less likely.
特朗普总统本月暂时降低了他在3月设定的对中国进口商品的天价关税,股市随之飙升,经济学家表示,经济衰退的可能性现在降低了。
But the emergency is not over for small-business owners like Carina Hamel and Robby Ringer who import products from China.
但是对于像卡里娜·哈梅尔和罗比·林格这样从中国进口产品的小企业主来说,紧急情况还没有结束。
Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer’s company, Bivo, sells stainless-steel water bottles with a patented nozzle that allows users — think thirsty cyclists — to gulp drinks quickly. Before Mr. Trump’s tariffs threatened the company’s existence, the founders said, the nearly five-year-old business, run out of a former corset factory in Richmond, Vt., was growing fast and close to becoming profitable.
哈梅尔和林格的公司Bivo销售带有专利喷嘴的不锈钢水瓶,可以让使用者——比如口渴的骑行者——快速地大口喝水。两位创始人说,在特朗普的关税威胁到公司的生存之前,这家成立近五年的公司增长迅速,已经接近盈利,公司位于佛蒙特州里士满一家原来生产紧身胸衣的旧工厂里。
The drop in tariffs this month to 30 percent from 145 percent on most Chinese goods was a relief but in the way that a flood is better than a tsunami. “Six weeks ago, 30 percent would have shocked the world and been appalling and hard to deal with — and it is now,” Mr. Ringer said.
本月,大多数中国商品的关税从145%降至30%,这让人松了一口气,但那更像是觉得洪水总比海啸强。林格说:“六周前,30%的关税会震惊世界,令人目瞪口呆,难以应对——可现在就是30%。”
The duties on Bivo’s bottles are higher than 30 percent because of the material they’re made from and how they are classified by trade officials. Bivo bottles that are not insulated are subject to tariffs that add up to 47 percent, and the rate for insulated bottles is 37 percent.
由于制造Bivo水瓶的材料以及贸易官员对它们的分类方式,Bivo水瓶面临的关税高于30%。不保温的Bivo水瓶总共面临47%的关税,保温水瓶的关税为37%。
Mr. Trump has frequently said foreign businesses that ship products to the United States pay the tariffs. But, in reality, importers like Bivo pay the duties to the federal government when goods arrive at a U.S. port.
特朗普经常声称关税由将产品运往美国的外国企业支付。但实际上,是Bivo这样的进口商在货物抵达美国港口时向联邦政府支付关税。
“It’s still a massive impact to the cash, and it still requires reworking a whole new strategy,” Mr. Ringer said.
“这仍然会对现金产生巨大的影响,仍然需要重新制定一个全新的战略,”林格说。
Bivo now estimates sales to be 30 percent lower than it previously expected, in large part because many retailers, which buy around two-thirds of its bottles, are buying less outdoor gear as they try to navigate their way through economic uncertainty.
目前,Bivo估计的销售额比之前的预期低了30%,这在很大程度上是因为许多零售商(它们购买了Bivo约三分之二的产品)为应对经济的不确定性,减少了对户外装备的采购。
Mr. Trump’s tariffs are weighing on businesses of all sizes. Walmart’s chief executive said this month that the giant retailer probably would not be able to “absorb all the pressure” from the tariffs.
特朗普的关税正在给各种规模的企业带来压力。沃尔玛首席执行官本月表示,这家大型零售商可能无法“消化”关税带来的“所有压力”。
Tariffs pose even bigger risks to small businesses. They typically don’t have the deep financial reserves needed to weather economic problems, the heft to demand lower prices from suppliers and the sway to lobby the government for exemptions from tariffs, said Ebehi Iyoha, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School.
关税给小企业带来的风险更大。哈佛商学院助理教授艾贝希·伊约哈说,小企业通常没有抵御经济问题所需的雄厚资金储备,没有要求供应商降低价格的实力,也没有游说政府免除关税的影响力。
“We should generally expect small businesses to be more vulnerable to trade shocks than large businesses,” Professor Iyoha said.
伊约哈说:“我们通常应该预料到,小企业比大企业更容易受到贸易冲击。”
The National Federation of Independent Business, an association that represents small businesses, regularly surveys its members about how their businesses are doing. In April, its members’ expectations for future sales declined for the fourth month in a row. In a note accompanying the survey results, the federation said millions of small businesses “acquire imported goods as inputs to their operations, and those supply chains are currently at risk.”
代表小企业的全国独立企业联合会定期对其成员的企业经营情况进行调查。今年4月,该协会成员对未来销售的预期连续第四个月下降。在调查结果附带的一份说明中,该联合会表示,数以百万计的小企业“购买进口商品作为其运营的投入,这些供应链目前处于危险之中”。
特朗普政府坚称关税是由外国公司支付的,但实际上,向美国海关支付关税的是Bivo这样的进口商,这使它们的业务十分紧张。
今年4月,来自中国的产品关税攀升至145%,Bivo 不得不停止进口,因为它没有现金支付关税。
The United States imported goods worth $439 billion from China last year, and many businesses — including Bivo — say they cannot get their products anywhere else any time soon.
去年,美国从中国进口了价值4390亿美元的商品,包括Bivo在内的许多企业表示,他们短期内无法从其他地方获得产品。
Things might have been a lot worse for Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer, who are married and live a few doors from Bivo’s offices in Richmond, a trailhead town on the Winooski River.
对于哈梅尔和林格来说,情况可能要糟糕得多。这对夫妇目前住在离Bivo公司位于里士满——维诺斯基河畔的一个山脚小镇——的办公室几步之遥的地方。
Expecting strong demand for their bottles, they had imported roughly 50,000 from China days before Mr. Trump first imposed his tariffs this year. “Dumb luck,” Mr. Ringer said.
他们预计会有强劲的需求,在特朗普今年首次征收关税的几天前,他们从中国进口了大约5万个水瓶。“纯属误打误撞,”林格说。
But when tariffs climbed to 145 percent, Bivo had to effectively stop importing because it did not have the cash to pay the duties. But it had committed to buying 30,000 more bottles from Haers, its supplier in Yongkang, China.
但是,当关税攀升到145%时,Bivo不得不停止进口,因为它没有现金支付关税。但该公司已经向中国永康的供应商哈尔斯下了3万个水瓶的订单。
Ms. Hamel, Mr. Ringer and their six full-time employees snapped into survival mode.
哈梅尔、林格和他们的六名全职员工迅速进入了生存模式。
Ms. Hamel went to Europe to see if the company could sell its bottles there, but she realized it would take too long to quickly sell many bottles there. During the trip, Ms. Hamel was at her lowest point since the tariffs were introduced. “I still feel super optimistic we can make it through this,” she said from England, “but I think it’s going to be really freaking hard.”
哈梅尔前往欧洲,看看公司能否在那里销售,但她意识到,要在那里快速销售很多水瓶需要的时间太长了。在那次出差中,哈梅尔尔的心情跌到了关税出台以来的最低点。“我仍然非常乐观,我们能挺过去,”她在英国说,“但我认为会非常困难。”
She did make some inroads. A German outdoor gear retailer said it would start selling Bivo’s bottles, and Ms. Hamel found a warehouse in the Netherlands where the company could ship its bottles from China for distribution in Europe.
她的确取得了一些进展。一家德国户外用品零售商说,它将开始销售Bivo的水瓶,哈梅尔在荷兰找到了一个仓库,公司可以把水瓶从中国运到那里,然后再销往欧洲各地。
After Ms. Hamel returned home, Mr. Ringer went to China to plead for better terms from Haers. Though the supplier would not cut the cost of the bottles, it did give Mr. Ringer more time to pay for them, offering Bivo some financial breathing room.
哈梅尔回国后,林格前往中国,向哈尔斯争取更好的条件。供应商没有降低水瓶的价格,但给了林格更多的时间来付款,为Bivo提供了一些财务上的喘息空间。
Haers did not respond to a request for comment.
哈尔斯没有回应置评请求。
When he was in China, Mr. Ringer asked to see Bivo’s products in the warehouse, which is something he has done before to check manufacturing quality. But this time, he had to clamber over pallets in the aisles to see the bottles. The warehouse was crammed full of goods that customers had delayed shipping to avoid paying the 145 percent tariffs.
在中国的时候,林格要求去仓库看看Bivo的产品,这是他以前检查制造质量的时候经常这样做的。但这一次,他不得不爬过过道上的托盘才能看到瓶子。仓库里堆满了顾客为了避免支付145%的关税而推迟发货的货物。
On May 12, when Mr. Trump reduced tariffs on China for 90 days, Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer concluded that they could now afford to pay the tariffs on a small shipment — 7,624 of the 30,000 bottles they had promised to buy. They will pay $24,436 in duties on the shipment, compared with an estimated $3,645 at the rates that existed before Mr. Trump took office, according to their calculations.
5月12日,当特朗普将对中国的关税下调90天时,哈梅尔和林格断定,他们现在有能力支付一小批货物的关税——他们承诺购买的3万个水瓶中的7624个。根据他们的计算,他们将为这批货物支付24436美元的关税,而按照特朗普上任前的税率计算,这批货物的关税约为3645美元。
Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer said they were not planning to increase prices on the bottles, which sell for $34 to $54. Bivo pays roughly $8 per bottle, before tariffs, and sells them to wholesalers for around $20.
哈梅尔和林格说,他们不打算提高每个水瓶的价格——34美元到54美元之间。Bivo每个水瓶的采购价格约为8美元(不含关税),然后以20美元左右的价格卖给批发商。
Critics of tariffs say they hurt entrepreneurs like Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer. The two had come up with the idea for a stainless-steel bottle for athletes in 2019 while cross-country skiing on Mount Hood in Oregon, after noticing most sports water bottles were invariably plastic. They have put $500,000 in personal savings into Bivo and used their house as collateral for a line of credit for the business.
关税的批评者说,关税伤害了哈梅尔和林格这样的企业家。2019年,两人在俄勒冈州胡德山越野滑雪时发现,大多数运动水瓶都是塑料的,于是想到了为运动员设计不锈钢水瓶的想法。他们把50万美元的个人积蓄投入了Bivo,并以自己的房子作为抵押,获得了创业的信贷额度。
Supporters of the tariffs, however, say China has subsidized many industries, including steel and aluminum mills, giving the country’s manufacturers an unfair advantage over businesses elsewhere. Mr. Trump and his aides have exhorted American businesses to move production to the United States.
然而,关税的支持者表示,中国对包括钢铝厂在内的许多行业进行了补贴,使该国的制造商相对于其他国家的企业获得了不公平的优势。特朗普及其助手敦促美国企业将生产转移到美国。
Bivo has considered making bottles in the United States but determined that would push up the cost of manufacturing to at least $50 each. Ms. Hamel and Mr. Ringer said that, without significant government support, many businesses would not be able to shift production to the United States.
Bivo曾考虑在美国生产水瓶,但认为这会将制造成本推高至每个水瓶至少50美元。哈梅尔和林格说,如果没有政府的大力支持,许多企业将无法将生产转移到美国。
“It’s not laid out to set up U.S. manufacturing,” Mr. Ringer said about Mr. Trump’s tariff policy. “It is only laid out to, in theory, punish China, when it’s really also punishing U.S. businesses.”
“这不是为了建立美国制造业,”林格在谈到特朗普的关税政策时说。“只是——在理论上——惩罚中国,实际上也在惩罚美国企业。”