President Trump didn’t seem to mind as his worldwide tariffs set off stock market sell-offs and wiped out trillions of dollars in wealth.

特朗普总统似乎并不介意他在全球范围内征收的关税引发股市大跌，数万亿美元的财富化为乌有。

“Be cool,” he told Americans.

“冷静点，”他向美国民众喊话。

Then he blinked on Wednesday afternoon in the face of financial turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields that could shake the dominant position of the dollar and the foundation of the U.S. economy. And late Friday, Mr. Trump exempted smartphones, computers, chips and other electronics from some of his tariffs on China.

然后到了上周三下午，面对金融动荡，特别是政府债券收益率的快速上升——这可能会动摇美元的主导地位和美国经济的基础，他做出了让步。上周五晚些时候，特朗普又对来自中国的智能手机、电脑、芯片和其他电子产品豁免了部分关税。

By pausing some tariffs for dozens of countries for 90 days and exempting electronics from some of his tariffs, he also gave away something to his main rival, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with whom he has engaged in a game of chicken that risks decoupling the world’s two biggest economies and turning the global economic order upside down.

通过对数十国家暂缓加征关税90天并豁免部分电子产品关税，特朗普也是向主要对手、中国领导人习近平作出了让步。此前他一直与这位对手进行着一场“胆小鬼博弈”，有可能使世界上最大的两个经济体脱钩，并颠覆全球经济秩序。

Mr. Xi learned that his adversary has a pain point.

习近平已然洞悉对手的软肋。

As reckless and ruthless as Mr. Trump may seem to some parts of the world, in Mr. Xi and China he is squaring off with a leader and a party state that have a long history of single-minded pursuit of policies, even when they resulted in economic and human catastrophe.

尽管在世界上一些地方看来，特朗普可能行事鲁莽且冷酷无情，但与之对峙的，却是惯于执着追求某些政策的习近平和一个一党制的国家——即便这些政策导致了经济和人道灾难。

Among Chinese, a consensus among both Beijing’s critics and its supporters is that the endgame may come down to which leader will be able to make his people endure misery in the name of the national interest.

无论是中国政府的批评者还是支持者，许多中国人都有一个共识，即最终的结局可能取决于哪位领导人能够成功做到以国家利益的名义让人民忍受痛苦。

“Tariffs and even economic sanctions are not Xi Jinping’s pressure points,” Hao Qun, an exiled Chinese novelist who writes under the name Murong Xuecun, wrote on X. “He is not particularly concerned about the hardships tariffs may cause for ordinary people.”

“关税，乃至经济制裁，都不是习近平的痛点，”笔名慕容雪村的中国流亡小说家郝群在X上写道，“他也不在意关税重压之下的民生疾苦。”

2017年，习近平举行仪式欢迎访华的特朗普。

Unlike Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi does not speak to the Chinese public through social media platforms, although he controls all of them. Everything he says and does is choreographed. It is impossible to get into his head because the public knows little about him beyond his official facade. But insights into how he might react in his standoff with Mr. Trump can be found by looking at how he views hardship, his relations with the Chinese public and his record as the leader of a nation of 1.4 billion people.

与特朗普不同，习近平并不会通过社交媒体平台与中国公众对话，尽管他控制着所有这些平台。他的一言一行都经过精心安排。要想了解他的真实想法是不可能的，因为除了对外展示的官方形象之外，公众对他几乎一无所知。不过，从过往的记录——他如何看待困难、他与中国公众的关系，以及他作为一个拥有14亿人口的国家的领导人——可以一窥他在与特朗普的对峙中可能做出的反应。

The Chinese internet is full of nationalistic chatters about the need to “resolutely fight back and stand our ground to the very end.”

中国的互联网上充斥着“坚决反制、奉陪到底”的民族主义言论。

People shared a video clip of Chairman Mao Zedong talking about the Korean War: “We will fight for as long as they want to fight, and we will fight until we win completely.”

人们在网上转发毛泽东谈论朝鲜战争的视频片段：“他们要打多久，就打多久，一直打到完全胜利。”

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, shared comments made by Chairman Mao in 1964, calling the United States “a paper tiger.” “Don’t believe its bluff,” Chairman Mao told a French Parliament delegation visiting China. “One poke, and it’ll burst!”

中国外交部发言人毛宁分享了毛主席在1964年的一段话，他称美国是“纸老虎”。毛主席对访华的法国议会代表团说："美国是只纸老虎，你们不要相信它，一戳就穿了的！”

Some commentators online invoked the Great Leap Forward to show the Communist Party’s ability to enforce austerity at times of difficulty. The party waged the campaign between 1958 and 1962 to rapidly industrialize China. Its policies defied science and the laws of nature, resulting in a famine and tens of millions of deaths.

一些评论者在网上援引大跃进来说明中共在困难时期勒紧裤腰带过苦日子的本领。1958年至1962年间，中共发动了一场旨在迅速实现工业化的运动。该政策违背了科学和自然规律，导致饥荒以及数千万人死亡。

While starving people in the countryside were resorting to cannibalism, Chairman Mao instructed the farmers to eat grain bran and edible wild plants. “Endure hardship for one year, two years, even three years, and we’ll turn things around,” he said.

在农村出现人吃人现象的同时，毛主席却指示农民吃谷糠和可食用的野菜。他说：“苦一年、两年、三年，就翻过身来了。”

1958年，北京郊外的一座水库工地，这是毛泽东大跃进政策的一部分。大约40万中国人参与了这个水库的建设。

Mr. Xi, whom some Chinese view as Mao’s successor to the mantle, likes talking about the benefits of withstanding hardship.

一些中国人视习近平为毛泽东的衣钵传人，他也喜欢谈论吃苦耐劳的好处。

Born in a revolutionary family, Mr. Xi experienced political turmoil and adversity at a young age. His father, a vice premier, was purged when Mr. Xi was 9 years old. During the Cultural Revolution, Mr. Xi’s father was severely persecuted. The son, not yet 16, had to move to a village deep in the Loess Plateau and work as a farmer.

习近平出生于一个革命家庭，从小经历政治动荡和逆境。他的父亲是一位副总理，在他9岁时失势。文化大革命期间，习近平的父亲受到严重迫害。未满16岁的习近平不得不下放到黄土高原深处的一个村庄务农。

“The seven tough years I spent living and working in the countryside were a great test for me,” he was quoted as saying in a long feature by the official Xinhua News Agency. “Whenever I encountered difficulties later on, I would think of how, even under such harsh conditions back then, I was still able to get things done.”

官方新闻机构新华社在一篇长篇特稿中引用他的话说：“七年上山下乡的艰苦生活对我的锻炼很大，后来遇到什么困难，就想起那个时候在那样的困难条件下还可以干事，现在干嘛不干？”

It was 2023, and China’s economy was struggling to recover from the Covid pandemic. Youth unemployment skyrocketed. Mr. Xi told young people that they should learn to “eat bitterness,” using a colloquial expression that means to endure hardships.

那是2023年，中国经济正在艰难地从疫情中复苏。青年失业率飙升。习近平告诉年轻人，他们应该学会“吃苦”。

In a state media article about Mr. Xi’s expectations for the young generation, the word “hardship” was mentioned 37 times.

在一篇关于习近平寄望年轻人的官媒文章中，“吃苦”一词被提及了37次。

Early in 2022, it was evident that the Omicron variant was too contagious to contain, but that nearly all other countries that had embraced vaccines were able to reopen their economies. But Mr. Xi insisted that China live through his draconian “zero Covid” measures while resisting importing Western vaccines. Hundreds of millions of people endured lockdowns, daily tests and forced quarantines. Many lives and livelihoods were ruined.

在2022年初，情况已经显而易见，奥密克戎变异株的传染性太强，已经无法遏制，几乎所有完成了疫苗接种的其他国家，都能重启经济了。但习近平坚持要求执行严厉的清零政策不动摇，同时抵制进口的西方疫苗。上亿民众经历了封控、每天的核酸检测与强制隔离，无数人的生活与生计被毁。

In the past few years, Mr. Xi has resisted the calls of many economists and even his own officials to provide cash support to the public to boost consumption. In a 2021 speech, he urged against “welfarism,” saying, “Once welfare benefits go up, they don’t come back down.”

过去几年里，尽管许多经济学家甚至习近平自己的官员提出向公众提供现金支持以刺激消费的呼吁，但他坚决不予理睬。在2021年的一个讲话中，他呼吁反对“福利主义”，说“福利待遇上去了就下不来了”。

The truth is 600 million Chinese take home less than $140 a month and have minimum social benefits, a major reason they save so much and consume less than the economy needs.

事实是，6亿中国人每月的收入不到1000元，享受的是最低的社会福利，这是中国人储蓄如此之多、消费低于经济需求的一个主要原因。

Mr. Xi did end zero Covid eventually, but did so abruptly without proper vaccination. Many were quickly infected, seniors died and long lines formed outside crematories.

习近平最终确实终止了清零措施，却是在没有适当接种疫苗的情况下突然放开。许多人很快被感染，大批老年人死亡，火葬场外排起了长队。

China’s chronic real estate meltdown seems to have finally pushed Mr. Xi closer to accepting the idea of helping consumers, although some economists believe it may be too late, especially in the face of the trade war.

中国持续经年的房地产崩溃似乎终于促使习近平接受了帮助消费者的想法，尽管一些经济学家认为可能为时已晚，尤其是在面对贸易战的时候。

山东泰安的一名男子正在赶羊，照片摄于2023年1月，当时中国刚刚放弃了新冠清零政策。

Mr. Xi does have a pain point on the economy: He can’t let things get so bad that it jeopardizes the legitimacy of the party’s rule. Nationwide protests in November 2022 helped bring the zero Covid to an end. The tariffs threaten China’s exports, which are driving the country’s economy. On Friday, Mr. Xi made his first public comments about the tariff war.

习近平在经济问题上确实有一个软肋：他不能让情况变得太糟糕，以至于危及中共执政的合法性。2022年11月的全国性抗议活动帮助结束了新冠清零政策。关税威胁到中国的出口，而出口是中国经济的主要驱动力。上周五，习近平首次就关税战发表公开评论。

“China’s development has always relied on self-reliance and hard work; never on the charity of others, and never fearing any unjust suppression,” he was quoted saying by the state media.

中国的官方媒体援引他的话说：“中国发展始终靠的是自力更生、艰苦奋斗，从不靠谁的恩赐，更不畏惧任何无理打压。”

As the world learned this week, Mr. Trump cannot completely ignore the financial markets or the Wall Street and tech billionaires who supported his campaign. They reached out to his cabinet members to convey their concerns. Even loyalists like Elon Musk and William A. Ackman, the hedge fund manager, expressed their disagreement with the president’s tariff policies.

正如全球在上周所见，特朗普终究无法全然漠视金融市场以及那些支持他参选的华尔街与科技界亿万富翁们的态度。他们已通过内阁成员向总统表达了自己的担忧。就连埃隆·马斯克和对冲基金经理威廉·阿克曼这样的忠实拥趸，也公开对其关税政策表达过异议。

It’s hard to imagine that any Chinese entrepreneurs would dare to do the same or, like Mr. Musk, have the channel to convey their concerns to Mr. Xi, who has pushed aside his political opponents and cracked down on private companies. If Mr. Trump aspires for absolute power like Mr. Xi, he has a long way to go.

很难想像会有中国企业家敢这样做，或者像马斯克一样有渠道向习近平表达他们的担忧。过去一年里，习近平一面排除异己，一面打压民营企业。如果特朗普渴望获得习近平那样的绝对权力，他还有很长的路要走。

I have been checking Chinese social media the past few days hunting for any well-known company or entrepreneur complaining about the trade war. I found none. Ordinary people who lamented online that they faced pay cuts or lost business because of the tariffs were shot down by nationalistic commenters and labeled “unpatriotic.”

过去几天，我一直在留意中国的社交媒体，看看是否有知名企业或企业家对贸易战表达不满。我一个也没找到。普通人在网上感叹自己因关税而面临降薪或失去生意时，都会遭到民族主义评论者抨击，并被贴上“不爱国”的标签。

That’s a base Mr. Trump can’t compete with.

这是特朗普难以企及的群众基础。

“Submitting to hegemony has never been an option for China,” a Weibo user wrote on Thursday. “If we could kick out the Americans during the Korean War, we have nothing to fear its tariff stick. We must respond with an iron fist.” The comment was liked more than 3,000 times.

“屈服霸权从来不是中国选项，”上周四，一位微博用户写道。“抗美援朝都能把美国佬打跑，还怕新时代美国的关税大棒，必须铁拳回击。”这条评论获得了3000多个赞。