A dizzying escalation of tariffs has unraveled a trade relationship between the United States and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy.

关税战令人头昏目眩的升级已瓦解了美中两国历经数十年建立起来的贸易关系，危及两个超级大国的命运，让世界经济面临受拖累的风险。

The brinkmanship displayed by the two countries has already far exceeded the battles they waged during President Trump’s first term. In 2018 and 2019, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on China over 14 months. The latest escalation has played out mostly over a matter of days, with levies that are far greater and apply to broader swath of goods.

两国展现出的边缘政策对抗已远超特朗普上次担任总统期间双方交锋的程度。特朗普曾在2018年到2019年的14个月里连续提高了对中国产品征收的关税。关税战最近的升级几乎只用了几天时间，而且税率要高得多，覆盖的商品范围也更为广泛。

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump countered China’s decision to match his 50 percent levy — a penalty for Beijing’s countermeasure to an earlier U.S. tariff — with an additional duty, raising the rate on Chinese imports to 125 percent.

周三，特朗普反击了中国对美国商品追加50%关税的做法，把针对中国进口商品的关税提高到了125%。中国追加关税是对美国追加关税采取的反制措施。

As hard as Mr. Trump has pushed, China has refused to back down. China has elevated its tariffs on goods imported from America to 84 percent. It pledged again on Thursday to “fight to the end,” an approach that is consistent with how Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, has sought to redefine the global order — one with Beijing, not Washington, at the center.

尽管特朗普施加的压力越来越大，中国始终拒绝让步。它已经将从美国进口商品的关税提高到了84%。周四，中国再次誓言“奉陪到底”，这一做法与该国最高领导人习近平追求重塑全球秩序的想法一致，即构建以北京而非华盛顿为中心的全球秩序。

“We are approaching a monumental train wreck breakup,” said Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society in New York. “The fabric that we so carefully had woven together over the last several decades is ripping apart.”

“我们正在走向一次意义深远的灾难性关系破裂，”在亚洲协会美中关系中心担任亚瑟·罗斯冠名主任的夏伟(Orville Schell)说。“我们在过去几十年里精心建立起来的结构正在被摧毁。”

At risk is a relationship that shaped the global economy in the 21st century. For years, both sides benefited. American companies’ extensive use of China’s factories kept prices in check for American consumers and padded the profits of the country’s biggest companies. China got jobs and investment that lifted millions of Chinese families out of poverty. And as China’s spending power grew, it opened up a giant and lucrative market for American brands.

处于危险之中的是塑造21世纪全球经济的美中贸易关系。多年来，双方都从这种关系中受益。美国公司大量使用中国工厂制造产品，控制了美国消费者支付的价格，增加了美国大型企业的利润。中国得到的则是就业和投资，使数百万中国家庭摆脱了贫困。随着国内消费能力的增长，中国也为美国品牌打开了一个巨大且利润丰厚的市场。

That arrangement has been tested by China’s emergence as a global power, and a growing U.S. concern that it had become vulnerable to pressure by China over access to components and materials crucial to advanced technology and manufacturing.

随着中国以全球强国的姿态出现，以及美国越来越担心在获取对先进技术和制造业至关重要的零部件和原材料方面，自己容易受到中国的压力影响，这种贸易关系受到了考验。

广州一家为Shein生产服装的服装厂工人，摄于周三。

It is not clear who will blink first, or if the two sides can find common ground. One thing is certain: The looming disruption to the flow of billions of dollars worth of goods between China and the United States, as well as the trade that often passes through other countries, will have a devastating impact on both economies and their trading partners.

目前尚不清楚哪一方会先做出让步，或双方能否找到共同立场。但有一件事是肯定的：美中之间价值数千亿美元的商品流通，以及经常通过其他国家中转的中美贸易即将中断，这将给两国经济以及它们的贸易伙伴带来毁灭性的影响。

“You can’t model this,” said Steven Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm. “Are countries going to have to choose between the U.S. and China?”

“这种情况根本无法进行模型预测，”地缘政治咨询公司APAC Advisors的首席执行官史蒂文·奥肯说。“各国将不得不在美中之间做出选择吗？”

Economists are predicting that the divide could drive the U.S. economy into recession. At the same time, the Chinese economy is facing the prospect of a painful divorce from its biggest trading partner, which buys more than $400 billion worth of goods each year, as the country is reeling from a property market collapse and sluggish consumer confidence.

经济学家的预测是，中美贸易中断可能导致美国经济陷入衰退。与此同时，随着中国经济深陷房地产市场崩溃、消费者信心低迷的泥潭，中国正面临着与本国最大的贸易伙伴痛苦分手的前景，美国每年从中国进口价值超过4000亿美元的商品。

Since the United States and China are central to the global economy, the impact will reverberate everywhere. Their sparring comes as Mr. Trump has also imposed a base tariff of 10 percent on most U.S. trading partners and levies on foreign-made cars and imported steel and aluminum — impediments to trade that have been almost forgotten in the tariff whiplash of recent days.

由于美国和中国对全球经济至关重要，两国贸易关系破裂的影响将波及世界各地。在两国打贸易战的同时，特朗普已对大多数来自美国贸易伙伴的商品征收10%的基本关税，并对外国制造的汽车以及进口钢铁和铝征收关税，这些贸易壁垒在最近几天的关税战中几乎被人忘记了。

Beijing was caught off guard by Mr. Trump changing the rules of global trade in his first term. It matched U.S. tariffs with its own tariffs on imports from the United States. But Beijing quickly ran out of American goods to penalize, because China bought so little from the United States. The two countries reached a truce in January 2020, an agreement that was viewed in Beijing as unfavorable to the Chinese side.

特朗普上次担任总统时改变全球贸易规则的做法，曾给中国来了个措手不及。中国政府采取了反制措施，对从美国进口的商品加征关税。但由于中国从美国购买的商品少得多，中国政府很快就用完了可供惩罚的美国商品。两国曾在2020年1月达成了暂停贸易战的协议，但中国政府认为该协议对中方不利。

On the campaign trail last year, Mr. Trump seemed willing to go even further. He spoke of imposing tariffs of 60 percent on Chinese imports. Most economists and investors brushed off the stump speech as hyperbole — a campaign promise that gets whittled down in the face of economic realities.

特朗普在去年竞选总统期间似乎有意更进一步。他提出要对中国进口产品征收60%的关税。不过当时多数经济学家和投资者都将其竞选演说视为夸大其词——这种竞选承诺往往会在经济现实面前大打折扣。

But it provided China with ample warning to devise countermeasures that would inflict maximum economic pain on the United States. So far, Beijing has responded to Mr. Trump with high tariffs as well as menacing reminders that it could choke off the supply of critical minerals.

但特朗普的竞选承诺给了中国足够的预警，让它有时间制定会给美国造成最大程度经济打击的应对措施。到目前为止，中国政府对特朗普的回应是高额关税，还威胁可能切断关键矿产品的供应。

The potential for the conflict to push the two countries further apart is greater than ever.

关税战导致两国关系进一步疏远的可能性比以往任何时候都大。

美中两国展现出的边缘政策已远远超过特朗普上次担任总统期间的双方对抗。

Dan Wang, a director on Eurasia Group’s China team, said some Chinese companies are already looking beyond the United States. For example, China plans to export six million electric vehicles this year, almost none to the United States. She said that while there is a chance of a global recession, the risk is greater in America.

欧亚集团的中国区总监王丹表示，一些中国企业已经将目光投向美国以外的市场。例如，中国打算今年出口600万辆电动汽车，几乎没有一辆将出口到美国。她说，虽然存在全球经济衰退的可能性，但美国出现经济衰退的风险更大。

Three months ago, the International Monetary Fund offered its economic forecast for the coming year: The U.S. economy was in better shape than just about all others.

三个月前，国际货币基金组织曾发布了对未来一年经济的预测：美国的经济状况几乎比所有国家的都好。

Now, many forecasters see the possibility of a U.S. recession. After Mr. Trump imposed stinging tariffs on nearly every country, analysts are predicting higher inflation, more unemployment and slower growth in the United States.

现在，许多预测者都看到了美国经济衰退的可能性。特朗普对几乎所有国家征收高额关税后，分析人士预测美国将出现通货膨胀率上升，失业率上升，经济增长将放缓。

“I believe that a recession has already started and the economy is going to deteriorate remarkably in the second quarter,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said before Mr. Trump reversed himself on some of the non-China tariffs.

“我认为经济衰退已经开始，经济将在第二季度出现明显的恶化，”高频经济公司(High Frequency Economics)的首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格说，这番话是在特朗普改变了自己对非中国产品加征关税的立场前说的。

The effect of the tariffs will be felt across the U.S. economy. Wendong Zhang, an assistant professor of applied economics and policy at Cornell University, said 73 percent of smartphones, 78 percent of laptops, 87 percent of video game consoles and 77 percent of toys in the United States come from China.

美国经济的各个方面都将受到关税的影响。康奈尔大学应用​​经济学与政策助理教授张文东说，美国73%的智能手机、78%的笔记本电脑、87%的电子游戏机，以及77%的玩具来自中国。

China, for its part, is still digging out of a property crisis that has touched its entire economy. Local governments are struggling to raise enough money to pay for entitlement programs, while financial institutions are saddled with debt. Unemployment is high, and young people are struggling to find promising jobs.

就中国而言，它仍在努力摆脱已波及整个经济的房地产危机。地方政府在筹集足够支付福利项目的资金上困难重重。金融机构背负着高额债务。失业率居高不下，年轻人难以找到有前途的工作。

武汉建设中的住宅小区，摄于去年。

On Thursday, Goldman Sachs downgraded expectations for the Chinese economy, even though it is anticipating a huge amount of stimulus spending by Beijing. It lowered its growth outlook for this year to 4 percent, from 4.5 percent — high growth by American standards but a sluggish pace for China.

周四，高盛下调了对中国经济的预期，尽管预计中国政府将推出大规模的支出刺激方案。高盛将中国今年的增长预期从4.5%下调到4%，虽然按美国的标准来看，这是高增长，但这种增长速度对中国而言较为缓慢。

China has relied on an outpouring of goods from Chinese factories to offset weakness in the rest of its economy. But the U.S. tariffs will sap demand and China’s other trading partners, already wary about a deluge of Chinese goods, might be reluctant to pick up the slack.

中国已靠出口国内工厂生产的大量产品来弥补其他经济领域的不足。但美国的关税将削弱对中国商品的需求，而中国的其他贸易伙伴已对中国商品的大量涌入心存疑虑，可能不愿填补这一缺口。

For small businesses in both China and the United States, the sudden rupture in the trading partnership is devastating. It presents an existential threat for John K. Thomas, whose business in California making electronic thermometers for animals depends on buying electric components made in China and selling the finished goods to Chinese dairy farms.

对中美两国的小企业来说，贸易伙伴关系的突然破裂是毁灭性的，已对约翰·托马斯的业务构成生存威胁。他的公司在加州生产动物用的电子体温计，公司从中国购买电子元件，做成产品后销往中国的奶牛场。

“For China to become my second-biggest customer base has been crucial for our business to continue in the last 15 years,” said Mr. Thomas of his company, GLA Agricultural Electronics, which was founded in 1969.

“中国成为我的第二大客户群体，对我们业务在过去15年的持续发展至关重要，”托马斯谈到他的GLA农业电子产品公司时说，他的公司成立于1969年。

The past three days have been a roller coaster for Mr. Thomas as the two countries pushed each other to the brink. On Sunday, he raced to get units shipped to his largest customer in China before a round of 34 percent tariffs on American goods would take effect.

随着两国的关税战不断升温，托马斯过去三天的日子就像坐过山车一样起伏不定。周日，他迅速行动，赶在中国对美国商品加征的34%关税生效之前，将产品发给了他在中国的最大客户。

After Mr. Trump announced additional tariffs, the Chinese customer asked for more, anticipating a response from Beijing. Mr. Thomas scrambled to pull together more of the product, but China beat him to the punch and said it had raised tariff rates again to 84 percent, effectively ending any chance at keeping the customer for now.

特朗普宣布追加关税后，该中国客户预计中国政府将做出回应，提出让托马斯发更多产品的要求。托马斯急着搜集了更多产品，但中国抢先了一步，宣布将对美国产品征收的关税进一步提高到84%，至少在目前，这等于断送了他留住该客户的任何希望。

“We were close to being priced out of the Chinese market,” he said. “At 84 percent, we are completely shut out.”

“我们的价格已经高到要被挤出中国市场了，”他说。“84%的税率将把我们彻底拒之门外。”