After two days of tense negotiations, the United States and China appear to have walked back from the brink of a devastating economic conflict — maybe.

经过两天紧张的谈判，美中两国似乎已经从一场毁灭性经济冲突的边缘走了回来——也许吧。

Officials from the two countries reached a handshake agreement in the early hours of Wednesday in London to remove some of the harmful measures they had used to target each others’ economies as part of a clash that rapidly intensified in recent months.

周三凌晨，两国官员在伦敦达成了握手协议，同意取消部分在近期冲突迅速升级过程中，为打击对方经济而采取的有害措施。

It remains unclear whether the truce will hold — or crumble like one struck in May did. Even if the agreement does prove durable, its big accomplishment appears to be merely returning the countries to a status quo from several months ago, before Mr. Trump provoked tensions with China in early April by ramping up tariffs on goods it produces.

然而，此次休战能否持续仍属未知，5月达成的类似协议就曾迅速瓦解。即使该协议被证明是持久的，其最大成就似乎也只是让两国回到了几个月前的状态，也就是特朗普在4月初对中国制造提高关税，从而引发紧张关系之前。

“It seems like we’re negotiating in circles,” said Myron Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group and former executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“我们的谈判似乎是在绕圈子，”奥尔布赖特石桥集团高级顾问、前美国商会执行副会长薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)说。

“You escalate, you de-escalate,” he added. “At the end of the day we’re not really further along.”

他还表示，“升级、降级，说到底，我们并没有走得更远。”

As a result of this week’s negotiations, tariffs will stay where they are. Further details are scant, other than the likely rollback of aggressive policies the two countries adopted since May.

本周谈判的结果是，现行关税将维持不变。除了两国可能收回自5月以来采取的激进政策外，进一步的细节尚不清楚。

China is expected to loosen restrictions on exports of minerals that had threatened to cripple an array of American manufacturers. The United States will in return relax new limits that it placed on its own exports of technology and products, as well as walk back threats to cancel visas for Chinese students in the United States.

预计中国将放宽对矿产出口的限制，这些限制曾威胁到众多美国制造商。作为交换，美国将放松对本国技术和产品出口的新限制，并收回取消中国学生赴美签证的威胁。

The countries did not announce progress on other trade issues. Those matters would be left for future discussions, American officials said.

两国没有宣布在其他贸易问题上取得进展。美国官员表示，这些问题将留待后续磋商。

For many analysts, the London meetings raised questions about what exactly had been gained by Mr. Trump’s aggressive trade tactics against China over the past few months, or whether his actions had ultimately backfired.

对许多分析人士来说，伦敦会谈引发了一些问题，即特朗普过去几个月对中国采取的强硬贸易策略究竟取得了什么实质性成果，或者他的举措是否最终适得其反。

“What exactly are we getting that we weren’t already getting before?” said Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow with the Mercatus Center, a libertarian think tank. “This deal suggests there was never a real plan.”

“我们到底得到了什么以前没有得到的东西？”自由派智库莫卡特斯中心高级研究员维罗妮克·德·鲁吉说。“这份协议恰恰说明，从来就没有一个真正的方案。”

Trump administration officials have argued that the United States came out on top from the recent escalations, saying that the punitive measures they issued in response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports show that the country has plenty of its own firepower. In recent weeks, the United States limited access to a range of software, products, chemicals and technologies, including critical elements China uses to develop advanced chips and jet engines.

特朗普政府官员辩称，美国在最近的冲突升级中占了上风，指出针对中国限制稀土出口而出台的惩罚性措施表明，美国拥有充足的反制手段。最近几周，美国限制了一系列软件、产品、化学品和技术的对华出口，包括中国用于开发先进芯片和喷气发动机的关键材料。

The administration has also pointed to the strength of the U.S. economy and limited inflation to argue that even very high tariffs on Chinese imports have had few negative effects.

政府还以美国经济强劲、通货膨胀有限为由，声称即便对中国进口产品征收很高的关税，也未产生显著的负面影响。

Other forecasters have not been so sanguine. In a report this week, the World Bank said that U.S. tariffs would set the stage for the weakest decade of global growth since the 1960s.

其他预测者没有这么乐观。世界银行在本周的一份报告中表示，美国的关税将使全球经济增长进入自20世纪60年代以来最疲软的十年。

Mr. Trump proclaimed on social media Wednesday morning that “our deal with China is done” and that the “relationship is excellent,” though he acknowledged that the agreement was still subject to final approval by himself and his counterpart, Xi Jinping.

特朗普周三上午在社交媒体上宣称，“我们与中国的协议已经完成”，而且两国“关系非常好”，但他承认，该协议仍有待他本人和习近平的最终批准。

“Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China,” he wrote, in all capital letters. “Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!).”

“全部磁铁和任何必要的稀土都将由中国预先供应，”他用大写字母写道。“同样，我们也将履行协议内容，包括中国学生使用我们的学院和大学（这对我来说一直没什么问题！）。”

The discussions in London played out over two long days and nights and repeatedly became heated, according to two people with knowledge of the meetings. At various moments, the talks seemed as if they might fall apart, they added — a sign of the lack of trust between the two governments.

据两位知情人士透露，伦敦谈判持续了两个漫长的昼夜，多次陷入激烈交锋。他们还说，谈判多次濒临破裂，这表明两国政府之间缺乏信任。

Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, who took part in the negotiations, said that the president’s fundamental goal toward China was to “reduce the trade deficit and increase trade.”

参加谈判的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克说，总统对中国的根本目标是“减少贸易逆差，增加贸易”。

“But first we had to get, sort of, the negativity out,” he said as the talks concluded. “Now we can go forward to try to do positive trade, growing trade, and beneficial to both China and to the United States.”

“但首先，我们必须消除一些负面因素，”他在会谈结束后表示。“现在我们可以推进建设性贸易，实现中美互利共赢的贸易增长。”

Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said on Wednesday that the essence of relations between the two countries lies in mutual benefit and cooperation. “There are no winners in trade wars,” he added. “China does not seek conflict but will not be intimidated by one.”

中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇周三表示，两国关系的本质是互利合作。“贸易战没有赢家，”他还说。“中国不惹事，也不怕事。”

Analysts and experts argued that the events of recent weeks showed that the Trump administration overplayed its hand against China. The United States has an almost immediate, economywide need for the rare earth minerals and magnets that China produces. Chinese restrictions on these exports forced carmakers and other industries to lobby the White House for relief, and eventually threatened to deplete inventories of U.S. military hardware.

分析人士和专家认为，最近几周的事态发展表明，特朗普政府对中国玩过头了。美国对中国生产的稀土矿物和磁铁有着几乎紧迫的广泛经济需求。中国对这些出口的限制迫使汽车制造商和其他行业游说白宫放宽限制，甚至可能耗尽美军装备的库存。

The restrictions that the United States put on China in return would undoubtedly prove painful for the Chinese economy, too. But some analysts emphasized that those would also inflict pain on the United States.

美国的报复性限制无疑也会给中国经济带来痛苦。但一些分析人士强调，这些措施同样会反噬美国自身。

Philip Luck, a director in the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, wrote in a recent analysis that U.S. restrictions on ethane exports destined for China had particularly backfired. It forced, for example, major American energy companies to halt billions of dollars in planned exports. With ethane cut off, Chinese plants could simply burn other fuels they can obtain elsewhere — which cost more but would prevent any interruptions.

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心经济项目主任菲利普·拉克在最近的一份分析报告中写道，美国对中国乙烷出口的限制尤其适得其反。例如，它迫使美国主要能源公司停止数十亿美元的出口计划。随着乙烷的切断，中国的工厂可以直接使用从其他地方获得的燃料——虽然成本更高，但能确保生产不中断。

“These controls fail to clear even the lowest bar for an economic weapon,” Mr. Luck wrote. “Beyond hurting U.S. producers more than their Chinese counterparts, they undermine the administration’s own energy dominance agenda and signal to allies that the United States cannot be trusted even in supposedly apolitical commodity markets.”

“这些控制措施连经济武器的最低门槛都没有达到，”拉克写道。“除了对美国生产商的伤害比对中国生产商的伤害更大之外，它们还破坏了政府自己的能源主导议程，并向盟友发出信号，表明即使在本应不涉及政治的大宗商品市场上，美国也不值得信任。”

Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow at Center for Strategic and International Studies, said tariff threats and other policies had been guided by a theory in Washington that “China would buckle under pressure very quickly,” in part because its export-driven economy has been showing signs of weakness.

战略与国际研究中心高级研究员麦怡瑞(Ilaria Mazzocco)表示，关税威胁和其他政策是基于华盛顿的一种理论假设，即“中国会很快在压力下屈服”，部分原因是其出口导向型经济已经显示出疲软的迹象。

“I think what China proved is that actually it’s in a pretty strong position and it can bear a lot of pain, and perhaps actually more pain than the United States,” she added. She also said that China had also demonstrated its ability to use export controls to inflict pain on the United States in a way it had never broached before.

她还说：“我认为中国实际证明了它处于一个相当强大的地位，可以承受很多痛苦，或许可能强于美国。”她还表示，中国还展示了其利用出口管制给美国带来痛苦的能力，这是它以前从未用过的方式。

Jin Canrong, a professor of international studies at the Renmin University in Beijing, wrote in a commentary last week that rare earths were “a trump card in China’s hand.”

中国人民大学国际关系教授金灿荣上周在一篇评论文章中写道，稀土是“中国手上的一张王牌”。

“Trump should understand that pressure and threats are definitely not the right way to deal with China,” he wrote.

特朗普“应该能明白，施压和威胁绝不是同中国打交道的正确方式”，他写道。

Some analysts have also questioned the precedent that the Trump administration set by putting in play U.S. export controls, which are typically considered a matter of national security, rather than economic leverage.

一些分析人士也对特朗普政府开创美国出口管制的先例提出质疑，出口管制通常被认为属于国家安全事务，而不是经济博弈手段。

Wendy Cutler, the vice president of the Asia Society and a former U.S. trade negotiator, said that the United States “appears to have paid a heavy price” for regaining access to Chinese critical minerals and magnets.

美国前贸易谈判代表、亚洲协会副会长温迪·卡特勒说，美国为重新获得中国的关键矿产和磁铁，“似乎付出了沉重的代价”。

“These matters have been deliberately kept off the negotiating table for years given U.S. insistence that national security-related measures are not appropriate for a give-and-take,” she said. “By apparently now reversing this long-held position, the U.S. has opened the door for China that will be difficult to close.”

“因为美国坚持认为，与国家安全有关的措施不适合进行讨价还价，这些问题多年来一直被刻意排除在谈判之外，”她说。“美国现在显然改变了长期以来的立场，为中国打开了一扇难以关闭的大门。”

She added that China may now insist on two-way concessions on export controls in the future. “The London framework may signify an important turning point in U.S.-China economic relations,” she said.

她还说，中国现在可能会坚持在出口管制方面的双向让步。她说：“伦敦框架协议可能标志着美中经济关系的一个重要转折点。”