President Trump’s decision to impose, and then walk back, triple-digit tariffs on Chinese products over the past month demonstrated the power and global reach of U.S. trade policy. But it was also another illustration of the limitations of Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach.

特朗普总统在过去一个月里决定对中国产品征收三位数的关税然后又收回，这个过程显示了美国贸易政策的力量和全球影响力。同时也再次说明了特朗普咄咄逼人的方式有其局限。

The tariffs on Chinese goods, which the United States ratcheted up to a minimum of 145 percent in early April, brought much trade between the countries to a standstill. They caused companies to reroute business globally, importing less from China and more from other countries like Vietnam and Mexico. They forced Chinese factories to shutter, and brought some American importers to the verge of bankruptcy.

4月初，美国对中国商品征收的关税提高到至少145%，这使两国之间的许多贸易陷入停顿。关税导致企业在全球范围内调整业务，减少从中国进口，增加从越南和墨西哥等其他国家进口。关税迫使中国工厂关闭，并使一些美国进口商濒临破产。

The tariffs ultimately proved too painful to American businesses for Mr. Trump to sustain. Within weeks, Trump officials were saying that the tariffs the president had chosen to impose on one of America’s largest trading partners were unsustainable, and that they were angling to reduce them.

事实证明，关税最终给美国企业带来的痛苦让特朗普难以承受。几周之内，特朗普的官员就表示，总统选择对美国最大的贸易伙伴之一征收的关税是不可持续的，他们正在努力降低这些关税。

Trade talks between the world’s largest economies in Geneva this weekend concluded with an agreement to reduce stiff levies on each other’s products by more than many analysts had anticipated. Chinese imports will face a minimum tax of 30 percent, down from 145 percent. China will lower its import duty on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. The two countries also agreed to hold talks to stabilize the relationship.

两个世界最大经济体之间的贸易谈判上周末在日内瓦结束，双方达成协议，减少对彼此产品征收的高额关税，幅度超出许多分析师的预期。对中国进口商品的最低税率将从145%降至30%。中国将把对美国商品的进口关税从125%降至10%。两国还同意举行会谈以稳定两国关系。

It remains to be seen what agreements can be reached in future negotiations. But the talks this weekend, and the tariff chaos of the past month, did not appear to generate any other immediate concessions from the Chinese other than a commitment to keep talking. That has called into question whether the trade disruptions of the past month — which led many American businesses to cancel orders for Chinese imports, freeze expansion plans and warn of higher prices — were worth it.

在今后的谈判中能达成什么协议还有待观察。但周末的谈判，以及过去一个月的关税混乱，似乎没有让中国立即做出任何其他让步，除了承诺继续谈判。这让人怀疑，过去一个月内，导致许多美国企业取消中国进口订单、冻结扩张计划、警告价格上涨的贸易中断是否值得？

“The Geneva agreement represents an almost complete U.S. retreat that vindicates Xi’s decision to forcefully retaliate,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader.

“日内瓦协议堪称美国的一场全面撤退，证明了习强力报复的决定是正确的，”美国战略与国际研究中心的中国问题专家甘思德(Scott Kennedy)说，这里的“习”指的是中国领导人习近平。

Although Mr. Trump and his advisers contend that the United States holds the strongest cards in trade negotiations, the president’s acquiescence revealed some of the limitations of his hand.

尽管特朗普和他的顾问们认为美国在贸易谈判中握着最强的牌，但总统对这一结果的接受暴露了他手上的牌存在一些局限性。

Through his so-called reciprocal tariffs and maximalist levies on China, the “Art of the Deal” president is employing a strategy that involves manufacturing trade crises in hopes of extracting quick economic concessions. But when confronting an economic power with similar might and perhaps more willingness to endure pain, Mr. Trump opted to stand down, declaring China’s agreement to join him at the negotiating table a win.

通过对中国征收所谓的对等关税和最大限度的关税，这位标榜“交易的艺术”的总统采用了一种制造贸易危机的策略，希望借此迅速获得经济让步。但在面对一个实力相当、或许更愿意忍受痛苦的经济大国时，特朗普选择了退让，宣布中国同意与他一起坐在谈判桌前是一场胜利。

On the U.S. side, officials essentially said they had determined that they did not want — or intend — to go down the path that the president’s tariffs had set the United States on, of fully decoupling its economy from China.

在美国方面，官员们基本上是在表示，他们已经确定不希望——或不打算——走上总统的关税给美国设定的道路，也就是让美国经济与中国完全脱钩。

“We concluded that we have a shared interest,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a news conference in Geneva. “The consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling.”

财政部长贝森特在日内瓦的新闻发布会上表示：“我们得出结论，我们有共同的利益。双方代表团的共识是，双方都不希望脱钩。”

That language was a stark change from Mr. Bessent’s earlier proclamations that the trade war would be much worse for China given its reliance on exports to the United States.

这一措辞与贝森特早些时候的声明形成了鲜明的对比。他曾说鉴于中国对美国出口的依赖，贸易战对中国的影响将严重得多。

“They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world,” Mr. Bessent said on the Fox Business Network last month. “And I can tell you that this escalation is a loser for them.”

“他们的经济是现代世界历史上最不平衡的，”贝森特上个月在福克斯商业新闻上说。“我可以告诉你，这种升级对他们来说是不利的。”

The tariffs proved painful for China, but they were also disruptive for the U.S. economy. American companies had started to warn of coming pain for consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability of products.

事实证明，关税对中国是痛苦的，但对美国经济也是破坏性的。美国公司已经开始警告消费者，价格上涨和产品供应减少将给消费者带来痛苦。

U.S. manufacturers were particularly concerned about China’s export restrictions on vital minerals and magnets. And while shipments from China to the United States plunged 21 percent in April from a year earlier, its exports to Southeast Asian countries surged 21 percent, suggesting it was finding some other channels to continue feeding its export machine.

美国制造商尤其担心中国对重要矿物和磁铁的出口限制。虽然中国对美国的出口在4月份同比下降了21%，但对东南亚国家的出口却飙升了21%，这表明中国正在寻找其他渠道来继续为其出口机器提供动力。

The decision to temporarily lower tariffs on China provides a welcome reprieve for businesses, but it will also do little to ease longer-run uncertainty that is weighing on U.S. firms. The two governments now have until mid-August to make progress toward a trade deal.

暂时降低对中国关税的决定让企业得到了一个它们所乐见的喘息机会，但仍然无助于缓解长期以来困扰美国企业的不确定性。两国政府现在必须在8月中旬之前就贸易协议取得进展。

On Monday morning, Mr. Trump said that if the countries did not reach an agreement in that time, tariffs on Chinese products would rise again to be “substantially higher,” though not to 145 percent.

周一上午，特朗普表示，如果两国在这段时间内不能达成协议，对中国产品的关税将再次“大幅提高”，尽管不会提高到145%。

“At 145, you’re really decoupling because nobody’s going to buy,” he added.

他还说：“到了145，你就真的脱钩了，因为没有人会买。”

Retailers and other importers expressed relief that more trade would again be able to flow between the countries, but they were crossing their fingers that the reprieve would last longer than 90 days.

零售商和其他进口商表示，两国之间将再次有更多的贸易往来，这让他们松了一口气，但他们希望暂缓实施的时间能多于90天。

上海附近的一个港口。关税导致中美之间的许多贸易陷入停滞。

Matthew Shay, the chief executive of the National Retail Federation, which represents large and small retailers, called the temporary pause “a critical first step to provide some short-term relief for retailers and other businesses that are in the midst of ordering merchandise for the winter holiday season.”

代表大大小小的零售商的全美零售联合会首席执行官马修·谢伊称，这一暂停是“为正在为冬季假期订购商品的零售商和其他企业提供一些短期缓解的关键第一步”。

Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said on Monday that the 30 percent tariff that remained on China was still substantial, and that the enthusiasm of American consumers and the companies that relied on their shopping habits had been damaged by the threat of tariffs. Ninety days is also a relatively brief time frame for companies to try to restart stopped shipments from China, he said, given how long it can take to book space on ocean liners and move products by sea.

洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡周一表示，对中国征收的30%关税仍然很高，关税威胁损害了美国消费者和依赖他们购物习惯的公司的热情。他说，考虑到预定远洋班轮舱位和海运货物需要很长时间，90天对于公司来讲也是一个相对较短的时间，很难重新启动来自中国的被中断的货运。

“This still is kind of uncharted territory, so we’ll see how people respond,” Mr. Seroka said. “But I don’t think based on consumer sentiment, consumer confidence, people are willing to jump in right away and say: ‘OK, this is really great. Let’s get going.’”

“这仍然是一个未知的领域，所以我们要看看人们的反应，”塞洛卡说。“但从消费者的情绪和信心来看，我不认为人们愿意马上投入进去，说：‘好吧，这真的很棒。让我们开始吧。’”

Trade experts warned that 90 days was also a very brief window to make substantial progress on the long list of trade spats between the United States and China, including Beijing’s ballooning trade surplus.

贸易专家警告，要就美中之间的一长串贸易争端取得实质性进展，包括北京不断扩大的贸易顺差，90天也是一个非常短暂的窗口期。

Wendy Cutler, the vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said three months was “an extremely short amount of time to address the range of contentious trade matters that remain between the U.S. and China, including dealing with excess manufacturing capacity, excessive subsidization of Chinese firms and transshipment efforts by Chinese companies.”

亚洲协会政策研究所副所长温迪·卡特勒表示，三个月的时间“对于解决美中之间存在的一系列有争议的贸易问题来说，是非常短的时间，包括处理制造业产能过剩、对中国企业的过度补贴以及中国企业的转运操作的努力”。

“Similar negotiations typically take well over one year,” she added.

“类似的谈判通常需要一年多的时间，”她补充说。

Mr. Trump has said talks would be focused in part on “opening up” China to American businesses. Officials said they had agreed to set up a regular cadence of talks with China, and suggested that some of those could center on Chinese purchases of U.S. products that would help to balance trade.

特朗普曾表示，会谈的部分重点将是中国向美国企业“开放”。官员们说，他们已经同意与中国建立定期的对话，并暗示其中一些可能集中在中国购买美国产品的问题上，这将有助于平衡贸易。

It is not clear what might differentiate these efforts from past negotiations with China. Trump officials have criticized the kind of recurring, low-level dialogues that past U.S. administrations held with the Chinese as essentially a waste of time.

目前尚不清楚这些努力与过去同中国的谈判有何不同。特朗普的官员批评过去美国政府与中国进行的那种经常性的低级别对话基本上是浪费时间。

Chinese officials also agreed to significant purchases in a 2020 trade deal signed with Mr. Trump that were meant to help balance trade between the countries, but they ultimately did not fulfill them.

中国官员还在与特朗普签署的2020年贸易协议中同意大量采购，旨在帮助平衡两国之间的贸易，但他们最终没有履行那些协议。

Still, the Trump administration now appears intent on reviving that deal. In an interview on CNBC on Monday, Mr. Bessent said the 2020 deal could serve as a “starting point” for future talks and blamed the Biden administration for failing to enforce the agreement.

尽管如此，特朗普政府现在似乎有意恢复该协议。贝森特周一在接受CNBC采访时表示，2020年的协议可以作为未来谈判的“起点”，并指责拜登政府未能执行该协议。

During his confirmation hearing, Mr. Bessent said he intended to push China to honor its commitments to purchase more American farm products. While the Trump administration has said broadly that it wants China to lower its “nontariff” trade barriers and open up its market to American firms, the latest trade clash could result in the revival of Mr. Trump’s old trade deal.

在他的确认听证会上，贝森特说他打算推动中国履行其购买更多美国农产品的承诺。尽管特朗普政府已经笼统地表示，希望中国降低“非关税”贸易壁垒，向美国公司开放市场，但最新的贸易冲突可能会导致特朗普的旧贸易协议重新生效。

“Everyone thought in advance that the most important thing is to get Chinese adherence to the 2020 Phase 1 agreement that for many issues provides a foundation for going forward,” said Michael Pillsbury, who was a top China adviser to Mr. Trump in his first term.

“每个人首先都认为，最重要的是让中国遵守2020年的第一阶段协议，在许多问题上，那个协议为下一步提供了基础，”特朗普第一任期的高级中国顾问白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)说。

Other analysts said the Trump administration would most likely continue to push China to stem the flow of fentanyl precursors to the United States and try to make progress on other trade issues, like China’s vast subsidization and dominance of certain industries.

其他分析人士表示，特朗普政府最有可能做的是继续推动中国阻止芬太尼前体流入美国，并试图在其他贸易问题上取得进展，比如中国对某些行业的巨额补贴和主导地位。

“The two governments have given themselves a window to get something done on fentanyl and purchases,” said Myron Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group who advises clients on China. “But what else will China agree to remains a big question going forward, given our longstanding persistent concerns over their trade policies.”

“两国政府给了自己一个在芬太尼和采购问题上有所作为的窗口，”DGA-Albright Stonebridge集团的高级顾问薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)说。“但考虑到我们长期以来对中国贸易政策的持续担忧，中国还会同意什么，仍然是一个大问题。”