A whopping increase in tariffs, followed by a whopping retaliation. Nationalist Chinese bloggers comparing President Trump’s levies to a declaration of war. China’s Foreign Ministry vowing that Beijing will “fight to the end.”

先是加征巨额关税，接下来是猛烈的报复行动。中国的民族主义博主们将美国总统特朗普的关税比作宣战。中国外交部誓言北京将“奉陪到底”。

For years, the world’s two biggest powers have flirted with the idea of an economic decoupling as tensions between them have risen. The acceleration this week, in both actions and words, of their trade relationship’s deterioration has made the prospect of such a divorce seem closer than ever.

几年来，随着世界两个大国之间的紧张关系加剧，两国已考虑在经济上脱钩。本周，两国的贸易关系已在行动和言论上快速恶化，经济脱钩的可能性比以往任何时候都更接近现实。

That was underscored on Wednesday when China announced an additional 50 percent tariff on U.S. goods, matching new American levies that had taken effect hours earlier. China also struck at American companies, imposing export controls on a dozen of them and adding six others to a list of “unreliable entities,” preventing them from doing business in China.

这一点在周三表现得尤其明显。当天中国宣布对美国商品追加50%的关税，与几小时前生效的美国对中国商品追加的关税等同。中国还对美国公司采取行动，对十几家公司实施出口管制措施，并将另外六家公司列入“不可靠实体”名单，禁止它们在中国开展业务。

China’s new tariffs, which will take effect on Thursday, mean all American goods shipped to China will face an additional 85 percent import tax. On Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Trump retaliated, raising tariffs on Chinese exports to 125 percent. Both figures would have been unimaginable a few weeks ago.  

中国的新关税将于周四生效，这意味着所有从美国运往中国的商品将面临85%的进口税。周三下午，特朗普予以报复，将针对中国出口的关税上调至125%。这两个数字几周前都是不可想象的。

特朗普总统对全球贸易体系发动攻击，直击中国当前仅有的经济亮点的核心。

With China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and Mr. Trump locked in a game of chicken — each unwilling to risk looking weak by making a concession — the trade fight could spiral out of control, inflaming tensions over other areas of competition like technology and the fate of Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.

中国最高领导人习近平已与特朗普陷入一场胆小鬼博弈，各方都不愿做出让步，以免冒下显得软弱的风险。这场博弈有可能让这场贸易战失控，进而加剧技术以及台湾前途命运等其他竞争领域的紧张局势。中国政府宣称对自治的台湾拥有主权。

Mr. Trump’s bare-knuckle tactics make him a singular force in U.S. politics. But in Mr. Xi, he faces an opponent who survived the turmoil of China’s late-20th-century political purges, and who views the United States’ competitive tactics as ultimately aimed at subverting the ruling Communist Party’s legitimacy.

特朗普强硬好斗的手段使他成为美国政治的一种奇特力量。但他的对手习近平经历过中国20世纪下半叶政治清洗的动荡，而且他认为美国的竞争手段最终是为了颠覆中共的执政合法性。

“Trump has never gone into a back-alley brawl where the other side is willing to brawl and use the same kind of tactics as him,” said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “For China, this is about their sovereignty. This is about the Communist Party’s hold on power. For Trump, it might just be a political campaign.”

“特朗普从未加入过那种对手愿意使用相同手段与他打斗的巷战，”华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心高级顾问斯科特·肯尼迪说。“对中国来说，这事关主权，事关中共对权力的掌握。对特朗普来说，这可能只是一场政治宣传活动。”

China’s economy, which was already in a vulnerable state because of a property crisis, now faces the specter of a global recession and a devastating slowdown in trade, its defining industry and main driver of growth. In a sign of Beijing’s growing unease, Chinese censors appeared to be blocking social media searches of hashtags that referred to the number 104, as in the size of the American tariffs.

由于房地产危机，中国经济已处于脆弱状态，如今又面临着全球经济衰退的幽灵，以及本国最重要的经济部门、为增长提供主要动力的贸易被摧毁的危险。作为中国政府日益不安的表现，审查机构似乎正在屏蔽社交媒体上与“104”（即美国对中国商品的关税率）有关的搜索标签。

“This is a huge shock to the China-U.S. economic relationship, like an earthquake,” Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said of the tariffs imposed on Wednesday. “It remains to be seen if this is temporary turmoil or a long-term unavoidable trend.”

“这是对中美经济关系的一次地震般巨大冲击，”上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯谈到周三追加的关税时说。“这是暂时的动荡，还是不可避免的长期趋势，还有待观察。”

To be sure, a U.S.-China decoupling is still far from becoming reality. Chinese and American companies like TikTok and Starbucks are both still entrenched in each other’s countries. And Chinese banks remain hitched to the U.S. dollar-dominated financial system.

无可否认的是，中美经济脱钩仍远未成为现实。中国企业（如TikTok）和美国企业（如星巴克）仍在彼此的国家根深蒂固。而且，中国的银行仍与美元主导的金融体系拴在一起。

北京一个屏幕上的苹果iPhone 16广告。苹果等美国公司已在中国投下巨额资金。

China and the United States are still at the brinkmanship stage, Mr. Kennedy said, each trying to force the other to offer a deal on bended knee. But the spat could become more dangerous if the Trump administration goes after Chinese financial institutions — for instance, by rescinding the licenses of Chinese banks in the United States or booting them off the international payments system Swift.

中美两国仍处于边缘政策阶段，肯尼迪说，双方都试图迫使对手就范。但这场争端可能会变得更加危险，比如一旦特朗普政府对中国金融机构下手——例如，吊销中国的银行在美国开展业务的执照，或将它们从国际支付系统Swift中剔除出去。

In pushing back against Mr. Trump’s moves, Beijing has cast itself as a victim of unfair American trade practices and protectionism. The irony is that China has done the same, if not worse, over the decades by limiting foreign investment and subsidizing Chinese firms.

中国已在回击特朗普做法的同时，将自己打扮成美国不公平贸易和保护主义的受害者。讽刺的是，中国几十年来一直在使用同样的（如果不是更糟的）做法，比如限制外国投资，补贴本国企业。

Mr. Xi himself has made no direct comment about the latest U.S. tariffs. On Wednesday afternoon, though, shortly after they took effect, Chinese state media announced that he gave a speech in a meeting with the other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of power in China, as well as other top officials. In it, Mr. Xi called on officials to bolster ties with China’s neighbors and “strengthen industrial and supply chain cooperation.”

习近平本人尚未对美国的最新关税直接发表评论。但据中国官媒报道，周三下午，也就是新关税生效后不久，习近平与中共中央政治局常委会（中国的最高权力机构）的其他六名委员和其他高级官员举行会议，习近平在会上发表的讲话中要求官员们深化与邻国的关系，“加强产业链供应链合作”。

A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, Lin Jian, did address the new tariffs, saying on Wednesday that China would “never accept such arrogant and bullying behavior" and would “definitely retaliate.”

中国外交部发言人林剑对新关税发表了评论，他周三说，“对这种霸道霸凌行径中方坚决反对，绝不接受”，并表示“将继续采取坚决有力措施”。

Any fracture between the Chinese and American economies will be felt across the world. Business was the bedrock of the bilateral relationship for nearly five decades. Without it, their engagement on other global issues, like security, climate change and future pandemics and financial crises, would likely stall.

中美经济脱钩将对全球产生影响。贸易一直是近50年来中美双边关系的基石。没有了贸易，双方在其他全球问题上（例如安全问题、气候变化，以及未来可能发生的疾病大流行和金融危机）的合作可能会停滞不前。

广州一个停车场里停放的新车，摄于本周。

China has tried to downplay its vulnerability to the economic chaos unleashed by the Trump administration. It says it has reduced its reliance on U.S. markets for its exports and that its economy is getting more self-sufficient, especially when it comes to developing homegrown technologies.

中国已试图淡化本国在特朗普政府制造的经济混乱中存在脆弱性的问题。中国声称已减少了对美国市场的出口依赖，国内经济正变得更加自给自足，尤其是在自主研发技术方面。

But that papers over serious problems in the Chinese economy, which has been largely stagnant because of a collapse in the property market. Moreover, Mr. Trump’s assault on the global trading system, which includes targeting countries like Vietnam where Chinese companies had opened factories to circumvent earlier U.S. tariffs, strikes at the core of one of China’s only current economic bright spots.

但这种说法掩盖了中国经济中存在的严重问题。由于房地产市场崩溃，中国经济基本上处于停滞不前状态。此外，特朗普对全球贸易体系发动攻击，包括对越南等国征收高额关税，直接打击了中国经济目前仅有的几个亮点的核心，中国企业为规避美国以前对中国商品征收的关税，已在越南等国设立了工厂。

The fallout from the trade disruption will hurt the United States, which relies on China for all sorts of manufactured goods, but will do more damage to China, said Wang Yuesheng, the director of the Institute of International Economics at Peking University.

北京大学国际经济研究所所长王跃生说，贸易战的后果将给美国带来损害，美国依赖中国提供各种制成品，但给中国带来的损害会更大。

“The impact on China is mainly that Chinese products have nowhere to go,” Mr. Wang said. That will ravage export-oriented companies making things like furniture, clothing, toys and home appliances along China’s eastern seaboard, which largely exist to serve American consumers.

“对中国的影响主要是中国的产品无处可去，”王跃生说。这将重创中国东部沿海地区生产家具、服装、玩具、家电等产品，以出口为导向的企业，这些企业主要是为服务美国的消费者而存在的。

“These companies will be hit very hard,” Mr. Wang said.

“这些公司将受到重创，”王跃生说。

The threat to China’s exports compounds the challenging task of bringing back foreign investment, which has undergone an exodus since the Covid pandemic and the introduction of strict national security laws that made doing business in China increasingly difficult.

中国出口面临的威胁使吸引外资回归的艰巨任务变得更为艰难。自从新冠病毒大流行，中国出台了严格的国家安全法，导致在中国经商变得越来越难以来，外资已大量撤离。

中国国家主席习近平上个月在北京的人民大会堂会见了外国企业高管，鼓励他们到中国来投资。

Mr. Xi has tried to woo foreign investors back, hosting a group of executives from overseas last month in Beijing. In a speech, he said China’s development was owed not only to the leadership of the Communist Party, but to the “support and help of the international community, including the contributions made by foreign-funded enterprises in China.”

习近平已试图吸引外国投资者回来，他上个月在北京与一群国际企业高管见了面。他在见面时发表的讲话中说，中国的发展靠的不只是中共的领导，“也离不开国际社会支持帮助，包括在华外资企业作出的贡献。”

Beijing’s strategy now is to push back at the United States and hope that Mr. Trump succumbs to domestic pressure to reverse course, said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who served as an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama.

中国政府目前的策略是反击美国，希望特朗普在国内压力下屈服，从而改变政策，乔治城大学研究亚洲问题的教授麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)说，他曾担任奥巴马总统的亚洲事务顾问。

“They know that if they give in to pressure they will get more pressure,” he said. “They will resist it with the belief that China can withstand more pain than they can.”

“他们知道，如果他们在压力下屈服，他们将面临更大的压力，”麦艾文说。“他们会顶住压力，因为他们相信，与美国相比，中国能承受更多的痛苦。”

Until then, China’s leaders appear to be girding the country for a protracted fight. One sign: Influential bloggers have been allowed to weigh in on the crisis and suggest ways to retaliate against the United States.

在美国做出让步之前，中国领导人似乎正在为一场持久战做准备。一个迹象是：一些有影响力的博主已被允许对这场危机发表看法，给如何报复美国提建议。

One of them, Ren Yi, a Harvard-educated Chinese blogger who goes by the pen name “Chairman Rabbit,” listed six potential countermeasures, including restrictions in China on U.S. service businesses like law firms and consultancy companies; cutting imports of American poultry and soybeans; and ending cooperation with Washington on reducing the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

其中一位是拥有哈佛大学教育背景、网名“兔主席”的中国博主任意，他列出了六个可能的反制措施，包括限制美国服务机构（如律师事务所和咨询公司）在中国开展业务；限制美国向中国出口家禽和大豆；以及暂停在减少芬太尼流入美国问题上与华盛顿合作。

“The trade war,” he wrote, “is not simply an economic friction but a ‘war without smoke.’ This must be understood from that perspective.”

“贸易战并不是简单的经济摩擦，”他写道。“贸易战是‘不带硝烟的战争’。一定要从这个角度去理解。”